The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Not really. It fails to address the basic issue in UK agriculture - the lack of automation and land ownership. For forty years the EU has pumped vast amounts of money into farming, but unlike most EU farmers, UK farmers did not reap the full benefits of it because in the UK large tracts of farming land is not owned by the farmers that farm it. And many of the benefits were based on ownership, on the assumption that the farmers owned the land. The result is that UK farmers neither had the money nor the motivation to automate and so the processes are very manual - hence the need for labour. And on the retail side, of course there is the question of price, how much more are UK households will to pay for farm produce - 10%, 20%, 30%.... As for forcing the unemployed to do it, that is a non starter as there are no votes in it... on top of which, contrary to what some people believe it is not an easy task - it's hard work and if not done properly then you risk loosing a large portion of the crop as it will deteriorate while in storage - remember Captain Boycott... Without very serious reform, there is not going to be any other option but to bring in cheap labour.

Unfortunately quite a lot of this (not all) is true.

Don't forget that most farms are not easily accesssible by public transport. Even if it is, most public transport likely doesn't start early enough to be helpful. Also there's the question of minimum wage, working conditions and, as been said, time to train in a skilled job. There are quite a lot of interesting debates about this on Twitter et al: folk who have applied and been turned down for (presumably) lack of experience in the, er, field. No pun intended.

That's not to say there aren't some lazy scrotes out there but I don't think it's fair to assume someone is lazy because they don't want to/aren't suited to pick fruit. I know i couldn't do it: my back wouldn't cope, and hayfever would floor me.

[greenmount]

	Quote:
	Don't forget that most farms are not easily accesssible by public transport. Even if it is, most public transport likely doesn't start early enough to be helpful. Also there's the question of minimum wage, working conditions and, as been said, time to train in a skilled job. There are quite a lot of interesting debates about this on Twitter et al: folk who have applied and been turned down for (presumably) lack of experience in the, er, field. No pun intended. That's not to say there aren't some lazy scrotes out there but I don't think it's fair to assume someone is lazy because they don't want to/aren't suited to pick fruit. I know i couldn't do it: my back wouldn't cope, and hayfever would floor me.

True, but transportation for workers can be organised. It's a myth that foreign workers have stronger backs. They usually have long term problems which they treat back home. In a system they didn't pay contributions to. Some of them come back with cash that local doctors and nurses wouldn't even dream of.
They're faster and know what to do because have done it for many seasons. Not everyone comes from this field of work (agriculture) actually. It's a way to supplement their income. I really don't underestimate this work, but everyone who is physically able can learn that.

They're veery motivated because the more and faster they work, the more money they get. If the employer is honest. Only then. If you go back home with 5k in cash after a good season you can do a lot of stuff with that amount - fix the roof, buy the kids computers etc.

	Quote:	greenmount
	True, but transportation for workers can be organised. It's a myth that foreign workers have stronger backs. They usually have long term problems which they treat back home. In a system they didn't pay contributions to. Some of them come back with cash that local doctors and nurses wouldn't even dream of. They're faster and know what to do because have done it for many seasons. Not everyone comes from this field of work (agriculture) actually. It's a way to supplement their income. I really don't underestimate this work, but everyone who is physically able can learn that. They're veery motivated because the more and faster they work, the more money they get. If the employer is honest. Only then. If you go back home with 5k in cash after a good season you can do a lot of stuff with that amount - fix the roof, buy the kids computers etc.

Oh I agree. I picked strawberries for a few weeks once (am not terribly efficient) and my OH did several seasons while at Uni i believe, but training was built in. A bit, anyway, and I suppose the situation as it is now hasn't got capacity for training new staff built in. (My back wasn't always crap btw and I was in no way suggesting that "foreign workers have stronger backs! ... but an accident and 2 kids later and it's not brilliant).

	Quote:	amogles
	The economy is not a zero sum game. New opportunities are opening all the time . Humanity has survived the agricultural revolution which automated away jobs in agriculture, the industrial revolution which automated away vast chunks of artisanal industry etc. Yet today most people somehow still have jobs and are on average better off than back then .

Yes and ...............NO!

Those who are given a good start, or those who are bright and enterprising, those who have all 3 - they will always do well. But many just do not have the ability, and are not given the chance either to get the kind of education that will support them in that direction. Not every labourer or worker will find an opening in this 'brave' new world. 3 million at the moment in the UK - and as more and more jobs become automated, in the little industry we have left, in manufaturing, retail, agriculture, etc, etc, etc - that number will rise. Are you really saying this is not likely to lead to civil unrest. Go and spend a few months in Jburg and see for yourself.

[CodPeace]

	Quote:
	3 million at the moment in the UK

3 million because of Covid.
It was @1.5 million in Jan, or 3.9%

[amogles]

	Quote:
	Yes and ...............NO! Those who are given a good start, or those who are bright and enterprising, those who have all 3 - they will always do well. But many just do not have the ability, and are not given the chance either to get the kind of education that will support them in that direction. Not every labourer or worker will find an opening in this 'brave' new world. 3 million at the moment in the UK - and as more and more jobs become automated, in the little industry we have left, in manufaturing, retail, agriculture, etc, etc, etc - that number will rise. Are you really saying this is not likely to lead to civil unrest. Go and spend a few months in Jburg and see for yourself.

The problem in Jburg is not automation and it is not lack of enterprise but it is a government that peddles the myth that the successful are to blame for the lack of success in others, and seeks to punish them accordingly.

There will always be people who need more help, more hand holding and more encouragement than others . But to be able to help them in a sustainable manner you need an economy that is strong enough to bear the taxation you need to subject it to . The economy needs to be nurtured and encouraged so that it is able to produce the surplus you need for social projects . Bildung your politics on the claim that those who are successful are evil is not contributing to such a climate

[CodPeace]

One thing is for sure, now at last the UK will get a decent house price crash.
Brexit was already going to cause issues, but now the global recession ( actually predicted a depression ) and the death of so many companies, and the verticle drop off in tourism, combined with the financial fall out from Covid19, will take a heavy toll.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	CodPeace
	One thing is for sure, now at last the UK will get a decent house price crash. Brexit was already going to cause issues, but now the global recession ( actually predicted a depression ) and the death of so many companies, and the verticle drop off in tourism, combined with the financial fall out from Covid19, will take a heavy toll.

Yes. The global "business" model will fail. Please enlighten me because I didn't study economics, what would you call this economic model we're seeing now? I mean, it's definitely not liberal capitalism or economic liberalism or whatever. It's a regression in the past of humanity if you ask me.

It will fail. Let meritocracy begin.

	Quote:	CodPeace
	One thing is for sure, now at last the UK will get a decent house price crash. Brexit was already going to cause issues, but now the global recession ( actually predicted a depression ) and the death of so many companies, and the verticle drop off in tourism, combined with the financial fall out from Covid19, will take a heavy toll.

A lot of QE will keep prices up to a significant degree.

	Quote:	amogles
	The problem in Jburg is not automation and it is not lack of enterprise but it is a government that peddles the myth that the successful are to blame for the lack of success in others, and seeks to punish them accordingly. There will always be people who need more help, more hand holding and more encouragement than others . But to be able to help them in a sustainable manner you need an economy that is strong enough to bear the taxation you need to subject it to . The economy needs to be nurtured and encouraged so that it is able to produce the surplus you need for social projects . Bildung your politics on the claim that those who are successful are evil is not contributing to such a climate

You of course totally misinterpreted what I was saying. I never mentionned automation re Jburg- but what happens to a society when wealth and jobs are only for a very small minority. And how some who need more help often are those who were never given adequate support from childbirth- and no suitable education and training. In the end, everyone suffers- those who 'have' live behind electrified fences with 'trespassers will be shot' signs - and cannot leave the house for a walk, to play, etc- unless in very defined guarded areas.
This is not a life I want for me and certainly not for my children and grandchildren.

The question was - when more and more jobs are automated, factories, retail, agriculture, etc, etc- and only a minority have jobs and an income - what happens to those for whom there are NO jobs left at their 'level' - level of education, but also level of intelligence and creativity. Some will rise and rise out of the ashes, and do extremely well. It is possible, I have seen it with my own eyes. For sure.

And the rest? What do you do with them? You can say you don't care, that it is their problem, that they should 'get on their bike' (remember Tebutt?) ... and fair enough. But one day, and it has happened before in many parts of the world - they will rise and it will turn nasty, nasty indeed. When the pendulum swings too far, it comes back at force, with a vengeance. So even if you are a selfish bar stewart - and it is your right - it will come back and smack you right between the eyes. HARD.

[John William]

	Quote:	CodPeace
	One thing is for sure, now at last the UK will get a decent house price crash. Brexit was already going to cause issues, but now the global recession ( actually predicted a depression ) and the death of so many companies, and the verticle drop off in tourism, combined with the financial fall out from Covid19, will take a heavy toll.

Maybe that great hit of the past - during The Great Depression called 'Brother can you spare me a dime ?'
could be hitting the charts and making its way up through 'the Top 40' after picking up the pieces
following the Coronavirus crisis.

The origins of Brother can you spare me a dime ?

[marton]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Yes. The global "business" model will fail. Please enlighten me because I didn't study economics, what would you call this economic model we're seeing now? I mean, it's definitely not liberal capitalism or economic liberalism or whatever. It's a regression in the past of humanity if you ask me. It will fail. Let meritocracy begin.

This economic model is called socialism.
The Govt. steps in and financially supports both companies and individuals.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	marton
	This economic model is called socialism. The Govt. steps in and financially supports both companies and individuals.

In socialism people had to work for their bread, trust me. I don't know to which "socialism" you're referring to, maybe the British one.

Now, in the EU which included UK too and still does practically, they're opening businesses financed by EU, having access to the poorer parts of EU's human resources and natural resources, they (the "rich") profit, the poorer parts don't. Not really. We regressed since accession to EU imo.
Let's call it a day. That's imperialism. Don't know which type of imperialism, I have to come up with a name for that. It's something terrifying and scary imo, this pandemic revealed all the inequalities and all our wounds. Broken health systems, rapid loss of jobs, poverty etc etc. What has been done to fix all of these or to make it less likely to happen? Not much.

I edited my message because I really, really don't want to give some people here the opportunity to gloat over my musings, so let me rephrase it: I don't like this EU of dependencies but not solidarity. There's a need for reform and change of economic paradigm. I find it more and more difficult to be supportive these days. I don't feel like continuing this conversation for the moment. Thanks.

[amogles]

	Quote:	CodPeace
	One thing is for sure, now at last the UK will get a decent house price crash. Brexit was already going to cause issues, but now the global recession ( actually predicted a depression ) and the death of so many companies, and the verticle drop off in tourism, combined with the financial fall out from Covid19, will take a heavy toll.

In contrast to many other types of crash, a housing crash has two sides. What may be bad news for those seeking to sell is good news for those seeking to buy. And don't forget that anybody who has bought and held onto their property for any reasonable span of time is still going to come out ahead if they sell now. It's not as if we're going back to 1970s prices or anything. The Uk housing market, especially that of London, is so crazily overhyped that it makes Swiss real estate seem a bargain in comparison. Some downward correction is not necessarily bad news IMHO.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	This economic model is called socialism. The Govt. steps in and financially supports both companies and individuals.

How about just calling it interventionism?

Keynesianism even?

	Quote:	amogles
	In contrast to many other types of crash, a housing crash has two sides. What may be bad news for those seeking to sell is good news for those seeking to buy. And don't forget that anybody who has bought and held onto their property for any reasonable span of time is still going to come out ahead if they sell now. It's not as if we're going back to 1970s prices or anything. The Uk housing market, especially that of London, is so crazily overhyped that it makes Swiss real estate seem a bargain in comparison. Some downward correction is not necessarily bad news IMHO.

The Daily Mail will tell you it's the end of the world.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Exactly this! Blacksmiths became mechanics, chimney sweeps became heating fitters, humanity adapts. Always has, always will! This is why I am so opposed to the idea of a “Universal Basic Income” as it only serves to create two classes- masters and servants. A Universal Basic Income would only be enough to keep people clothed, fed and housed, nothing more. History tells us the only place that has ever worked was on the cotton plantations!

Interesting. My (last) chimney sweeper was a third-generation chimney sweep and my A&E consultant neighbour was retraining as a Blacksmith in is (not very) spare time.

Being clothed, fed and housed is a lot more than some folk get now.

As for your last point....

[amogles]

	Quote:
	Interesting. My (last) chimney sweeper was a third-generation chimney sweep and my A&E consultant neighbour was retraining as a Blacksmith in is (not very) spare time. Being clothed, fed and housed is a lot more than some folk get now. As for your last point....

There are hardly any impoverished carpenters, but many IKEA staff live on minimal wages.

I guess we can agree on this.

But is this because artesanal work is inherently more profitable than mass production? Or is it because only the rich can afford proper workmanship and don't mind paying for it? Many tradional skills thus survive in a niche serving the mid to high end of the market.

	Quote:
	Interesting. My (last) chimney sweeper was a third-generation chimney sweep and my A&E consultant neighbour was retraining as a Blacksmith in is (not very) spare time. Being clothed, fed and housed is a lot more than some folk get now. As for your last point....

we have a friend who is a 3rd generation chimney sweep, and his son is taking over as 4th. And it is very very well paid indeed (as it is compulsory in Switzerland to have chimneys swept once a year).