The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	As far as I know, UK tuition fees are limited to the UK, so although those UK fees are the highest UK fees on the planet, they are also the lowest (not to mention the median, the mean, the exception and the rule).

And the mode. Don't forget the mode!

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	Old man, just read the OECD report somewhere higher up, I posted a link to The Guardian quoting it. Smilies are for lazy communicators, A+ on that! I see smilies where people intent them, no worries. ... I think the biggest obstacle in having a better quality life in the UK isn't the EU.

I'll read your post if you read mine, ok?


I agree that the problem in the UK is not the EU. I hold that a sense of entitlement is a real stumbling block.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	There's no such thing as "European Money". It's European Tax Payer's money, of which in recent years, British Tax Payers were the second biggest net contributors. The Grauniad like to talk about it like it's some big happy pot of money that the EU distribute to people out of kindness.

Well if you're talking about Tax Payers money then surely it's the per head contribution that is relevant, not the total per country. By which measure the UK isn't even in the top 10 gross (I got bored counting after I found 10 with larger per head contributions)

A bit higher on net contributions but still only about 7th.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	I'll read your post if you read mine, ok? I agree that the problem in the UK is not the EU. I hold that a sense of entitlement is a real stumbling block.

I know. And I know you think that. And I agree. I wonder if we all came from kingdoms how entitled would we feel...oops.

What does Elisabeth think, btw?

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	I know. And I know you think that. And I agree. I wonder if we all came from former empires how entitled would we feel...oops. What does Elisabeth think, btw?

FTFY


No idea what Betty thinks, I suspect there is a great deal of denture clucking going on.

The EU is not quite a cohesive organization. With 27 members, its fairly easy to incapacitate. That means it has 27 weak spots. It only needs a few dissenting members to grind it to a halt. It isn't known for quick decisive actions. They may have strategised for a quick Article 50, while the script is fresh in their minds. Which is why the UK should delay Article 50 to disrupt the EU's game plan. There will be new factors in a few months time that changes the balance.

Before Article 50, the UK should start holding bilateral talks with individual countries. Talk about Gibraltar with Spain, car imports with Germany, etc. They'll need all the leverage they can get before they come to the negotiating table. Wait until they have a good hand before invoking Article 50.

In the game of poker, you don't try to win every single hand dealt to you. You wait until you have a the rare good hand before you go in.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:
	And the mode. Don't forget the mode!

What are you, a vocabulary Nazi, or an alliteration addict?

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:
	Well if you're talking about Tax Payers money then surely it's the per head contribution that is relevant, not the total per country. By which measure the UK isn't even in the top 10 gross (I got bored counting after I found 10 with larger per head contributions) A bit higher on net contributions but still only about 7th.

surely the appropriate measure is the number of hospitals you could build each week?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	The EU is not quite a cohesive organization. With 27 members, its fairly easy to incapacitate. That means it has 27 weak spots. It only needs a few dissenting members to grind it to a halt. It isn't known for quick decisive actions. They may have strategised for a quick Article 50, while the script is fresh in their minds. Which is why the UK should delay Article 50 to disrupt the EU's game plan. There will be new factors in a few months time that changes the balance. Before Article 50, the UK should start holding bilateral talks with individual countries. Talk about Gibraltar with Spain, car imports with Germany, etc. They'll need all the leverage they can get before they come to the negotiating table. Wait until they have a good hand before invoking Article 50. In the game of poker, you don't try to win every single hand dealt to you. You wait until you have a the rare good hand before you go in.

If Boris gets to have any say, rest assured that he will have thought of all this and more.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	The EU is not quite a cohesive organization. With 27 members, its fairly easy to incapacitate. That means it has 27 weak spots. It only needs a few dissenting members to grind it to a halt. It isn't known for quick decisive actions. They may have strategised for a quick Article 50, while the script is fresh in their minds. Which is why the UK should delay Article 50 to disrupt the EU's game plan. There will be new factors in a few months time that changes the balance. Before Article 50, the UK should start holding bilateral talks with individual countries. Talk about Gibraltar with Spain, car imports with Germany, etc. They'll need all the leverage they can get before they come to the negotiating table. Wait until they have a good hand before invoking Article 50. In the game of poker, you don't try to win every single hand dealt to you. You wait until you have a the rare good hand before you go in.

On a roadtrip some years ago I had a long discussion with a guy from a French wine company. He said he was scouting for good land in England as he said the soil was ideal and he believed the temperature only needs to rise minimally to make certain areas prime vineyard country.

Get a guy like that on board and threaten to subsidize him to hell and the French will rapidly be open to compromises.

Offer the Poles some compromise on FMOP, as not being able to work in the Uk at all would hurt them pretty badly.

With a bit of creative thinking there could easily be something big on the table.

[MidfieldGeneral]

	Quote:	amogles
	On a roadtrip some years ago I had a long discussion with a guy from a French wine company. He said he was scouting for good land in England as he said the soil was ideal and he believed the temperature only needs to rise minimally to make certain areas prime vineyard country. Get a guy like that on board and threaten to subsidize him to hell and the French will rapidly be open to compromises. Offer the Poles some compromise on FMOP, as not being able to work in the Uk at all would hurt them pretty badly. With a bit of creative thinking there could easily be something big on the table.

You have faith in those Tory frackwits to do this?

	Quote:	bigblue2
	my facebook stream is full of leavers all gloating and saying things like the UK has got its identity back, and busily shouting down anyone who dares to disagree with them, yet I asked a simple question, exactly what do you think the UK will gain from leaving? regain our boarders - errrrmmmm, you always had control over them??? you're an island ffs, you always had the power to deport law breakers of any nationality, the fact the courts / gov never exercised that right is nothing to do with the EU 350m to the NHS - errrrrmmmm, say what now? an awful lot of farmers are going to go bust then, not to mention all the money wales, cornwall, a lot of towns up north etc are going to lose, that 350m (and more) will be swallowed up, the nhs will get NOTHING you want an EU trade deal do you? well, just look at the swiss deal, deal with us, open your boarders, so now you'll have even less control of your boarders, you'll be the EU's bitch, you're on the outside with no say, you just lost all your veto's Oh and the UK car industry, good luck with that, I read the import tariff for cars outside the EU is 10%, the uk exported 1.2m cars last years, that's a shit load of money honda, toyota, mini, land rover etc will save making cars in the EU rather then the UK (not to mention paper work and cheaper work force) - and that's before you take into account EU trade deals with other countries. The german can manufactures must be rubbing there hands. So can anyone here (you are a much better educated bunch) give me a concrete plus for leaving?

I wonder whether you came across Paul Marshall's fantasy missive in today's FT repeating how it was Britain's destiny to strike trade deals with whoever it wanted. They will all be falling over themselves. Perhaps they will all fund an even bigger current account deficit and then the Pound will have collapsed 99% (against real currencies, that is, not the basket cases) since 1969. Sale of the Century Hurry, hurry, hurry.

[lewton]

	Quote:	Phos
	The EU is not quite a cohesive organization. With 27 members, its fairly easy to incapacitate. That means it has 27 weak spots. It only needs a few dissenting members to grind it to a halt. It isn't known for quick decisive actions. They may have strategised for a quick Article 50, while the script is fresh in their minds. Which is why the UK should delay Article 50 to disrupt the EU's game plan. There will be new factors in a few months time that changes the balance. Before Article 50, the UK should start holding bilateral talks with individual countries. Talk about Gibraltar with Spain, car imports with Germany, etc. They'll need all the leverage they can get before they come to the negotiating table. Wait until they have a good hand before invoking Article 50. In the game of poker, you don't try to win every single hand dealt to you. You wait until you have a the rare good hand before you go in.

	Quote:	amogles
	On a roadtrip some years ago I had a long discussion with a guy from a French wine company. He said he was scouting for good land in England as he said the soil was ideal and he believed the temperature only needs to rise minimally to make certain areas prime vineyard country. Get a guy like that on board and threaten to subsidize him to hell and the French will rapidly be open to compromises. Offer the Poles some compromise on FMOP, as not being able to work in the Uk at all would hurt them pretty badly. With a bit of creative thinking there could easily be something big on the table.

If this happens, I will be seriously very mad at the EU.
You must get what you asked for, which in this case should be a very loose and generic deal as a third county.

PS. Let me remind you I was (and I am) pro-Brexit, so it's not about revenge, it's about two ex spouses whose marriage never worked taking their separate ways.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	The EU is not quite a cohesive organization. With 27 members, its fairly easy to incapacitate. That means it has 27 weak spots. It only needs a few dissenting members to grind it to a halt. It isn't known for quick decisive actions. They may have strategised for a quick Article 50, while the script is fresh in their minds. Which is why the UK should delay Article 50 to disrupt the EU's game plan. There will be new factors in a few months time that changes the balance. Before Article 50, the UK should start holding bilateral talks with individual countries. Talk about Gibraltar with Spain, car imports with Germany, etc. They'll need all the leverage they can get before they come to the negotiating table. Wait until they have a good hand before invoking Article 50. In the game of poker, you don't try to win every single hand dealt to you. You wait until you have a the rare good hand before you go in.

"The EU is not quite a cohesive organization." Indeed, any one of the 28 members could block or change a proposed deal between the EU and the UK.
Just needs one EU country to be unhappy with us to block everything; consequently their leverage is enormous.
For example, Ireland is likely to face increased costs and administration managing the land border so could demand the UK pay for this?

[marton]

	Quote:	lewton
	If this happens, I will be seriously very mad at the EU. You must get what you asked for, which in this case should be a very loose and generic deal as a third county. PS. Let me remind you I was (and I am) pro-Brexit, so it's not about revenge, it's about two ex spouses whose marriage never worked taking their separate ways.

"it's about two ex spouses" But it is not is it! The EU does not speak with one voice!
It is more like a man with 28 wives who decides to divorce them and then has to find compromises that will both keep them all happy and be transparent to all of them!

[Phil_MCR]

I think the 2 big elements to be decided in a deal (apart from the dozens of other issues) are:

- tariffs and access to markets; and
- passporting rules

I would suggest the following broad deal which should be achievable:

- UK out of EU/EEA
- No automatic free movement, but but maybe limited free movement for those with a job offer, or studying as a concession
- Reciprocal tariff-free access to markets in UK/EU
- Continued reciprocal passporting rules for financial services

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	I think the 2 big elements to be decided in a deal (apart from the dozens of other issues) are: - tariffs and access to markets; and - passporting rules I would suggest the following broad deal which should be achievable: - UK out of EU/EEA - No automatic free movement, but but maybe limited free movement for those with a job offer, or studying as a concession - Reciprocal tariff-free access to markets in UK/EU - Continued reciprocal passporting rules for financial services

37 jobs up for grabs in the shadow cabinet, take a bow son - you're in.

[Kosti]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	I think the 2 big elements to be decided in a deal (apart from the dozens of other issues) are: - tariffs and access to markets; and - passporting rules I would suggest the following broad deal which should be achievable: - UK out of EU/EEA - No automatic free movement, but but maybe limited free movement for those with a job offer, or studying as a concession - Reciprocal tariff-free access to markets in UK/EU - Continued reciprocal passporting rules for financial services

Do you realise that free movement today means free movement only for those with something to do, you know, like a job offer or study?

Yeah, that's called the EEA. Congratulations

Edit: Sorry, even the EEA doesnt have the ability to offer financial services on an equal footing.
So basically, why should the UK get EEA+ ? Whats the leverage?

[lewton]

	Quote:	marton
	"The EU is not quite a cohesive organization." Indeed, any one of the 28 members could block or change a proposed deal between the EU and the UK. Just needs one EU country to be unhappy with us to block everything; consequently their leverage is enormous. For example, Ireland is likely to face increased costs and administration managing the land border so could demand the UK pay for this?

I think you don't realize what the EU treaties have stated for this case.
If there is no agreement reached, meaning an agreement approved by the UK and each one of the 27 EU members, then the UK is automatically out 2 years after article 50 has been triggered, without any special deal. Just out.
It may be anybody, e.g. Spain. If Spain, because of Gibraltar, refuses to ratify any agreement reached, then said agreement is void and the UK is out 2 years later.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	With a bit of creative thinking there could easily be something big on the table.

Only thing is that you are not negotiating with 27 states, your negotiating with 24 states and the peoples of 3 states, France, Denmark and Ireland. Which is exactly why the deal DC was offered by the EU was so poor - they did not want to open the referenda can of worms... no doubt Le Pen would make it a referendum on the EU as possibly the Danish far right and no matter what you offer the Irish it would always be worse than what they currently have under the Common Travel Area.

If don't expect the EU Commission will have much willingness to go beyond the offers that do not involve a referendum:
- EFTA with no access to the single market
- EEA access to the market but with FMOP, budget contributions etc...
- WTO trading rules.