The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[greenmount]

	Quote:	marton
	The poor economic forecast for Brexit is not based on models but on the fact that there are no large free trade deals with other countries ready to go even after almost 4 years. Remember "Liam Fox promises to sign 40 free trade deals the 'second after midnight ' on the day of Brexit"; another lie.

Marton, please don't let facts stay in the way of a good nationalis...ahem "anti-globalist" opinion.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	And there was nothing to prove that this would have even happened

The Japanese car makers are moving production "back home". It may not have happened yet (not sure) but it definitely will and Brexit is the trigger.

Many financials companies have already moved operations to the continent, more are likely to follow regardles of the actual outcome. Simply because the uncertainty BoJo causes forces their hand.

Etc

It's hilarious to see you predict the economic onsequences of the coronavirus without a shadow of doubt while you simultaneously deny the obvious consequences of Brexit even though many companies have actually announced what they will do and must be acting on that already. But of course that's different, isn't it.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The Japanese car makers are moving production "back home". It may not have happened yet (not sure) but it definitely will and Brexit is the trigger. Many financials companies have already moved operations to the continent, more are likely to follow regardles of the actual outcome. Simply because the uncertainty BoJo causes forces their hand. Etc It's hilarious to see you predict the economic onsequences of the coronavirus without a shadow of doubt while you simultaneously deny the obvious consequences of Brexit even though many companies have actually announced what they will do and must be acting on that already. But of course that's different, isn't it.

Well it doesn't take a genius to see that when people don't work there will be an economic hit and that when governments start handing out money left, right and centre that someday that debt is going to have to be repaid

Brexit is completely different, whether or not a trade deal will be struck, and assessing the consequences of no deal being struck.

p.s. vast majority of financial operations remain in London and Brexit wasn't the trigger for the upheaval the car industry is seeing at the moment

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Brexit wasn't the trigger for the upheaval the car industry is seeing at the moment

Stop putting words in my mouth, this isn't what I said.

Still, to play along: Obviously there are other issues, like the shift towards electric. The investments for that do happen, just not in the UK. In 2018 investments by SMMT members (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) dropped by almost 50% due to the moving of car production away from the UK which, of course, is caused by Brexit.

This is what Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive said last year when Brexit was two months away. And don't ask for a more recent quote, I can't be bothered given the continued fall of production numbers shown below (chart taken from SMMT):

	Quote:
	With fewer than 60 days before we leave the EU and the risk of crashing out without a deal looking increasingly real, UK Automotive is on red alert. Brexit uncertainty has already done enormous damage to output, investment and jobs. Yet this is nothing compared with the permanent devastation caused by severing our frictionless trade links overnight, not just with the EU but with the many other global markets with which we currently trade freely. Given the global headwinds, the challenges to the sector are immense. Brexit is the clear and present danger and, with thousands of jobs on the line, we urge all parties to do whatever it takes to save us from ‘no deal’.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Stop putting words in my mouth, this isn't what I said. Still, to play along: Obviously there are other issues, like the shift towards electric. The investments for that do happen, just not in the UK. In 2018 investments by SMMT members (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) dropped by almost 50% due to the moving of car production away from the UK which, of course, is caused by Brexit. This is what Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive said last year when Brexit was two months away. And don't ask for a more recent quote, I can't be bothered given the continued fall of production numbers shown below (chart taken from SMMT):

I guess you can see when scraping a car deals were offered, this brings future sales forward, the average sales over 3-5 years won't change much.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I guess you can see when scraping a car deals were offered, this brings future sales forward, the average sales over 3-5 years won't change much.

That's meaningless, they're offered all the time and have been for ages.

Oooops they have been advertising, and advertising and advertising some more- but nope. All those in East Anglia who voted Brexit because foreigners were taking their job- have NOT applied...So it is now realised that the UK needs 70000 labourers to pick vegetables and soon, fruit. Many flights from Romania organised starting tomorrow, with a huge advertising campaing in Eastern Europe on the way.

Just could NOT make it up. And in the middle of Covid crisis.

Reminds me of going skiing in Steamboat in the 90s. The local redneck politicians had had a massive 'clean-out' getting rid of 1000s of 'irregular' workers. They were mightily pleased with themselves- until the ski season started and they realised they had no-one to clean and prepare food in Hôtels, restaurants, etc- no-one to man the lifts, groom the pistes, etc, etc- and the town was on the brink of disaster.

[amogles]

	Quote:
	Oooops they have been advertising, and advertising and advertising some more- but nope. All those in East Anglia who voted Brexit because foreigners were taking their job- have NOT applied...So it is now realised that the UK needs 70000 labourers to pick vegetables and soon, fruit. Many flights from Romania organised starting tomorrow, with a huge advertising campaing in Eastern Europe on the way. Just could NOT make it up. And in the middle of Covid crisis. Reminds me of going skiing in Steamboat in the 90s. The local redneck politicians had had a massive 'clean-out' getting rid of 1000s of 'irregular' workers. They were mightily pleased with themselves- until the ski season started and they realised they had no-one to clean and prepare food in Hôtels, restaurants, etc- no-one to man the lifts, groom the pistes, etc, etc- and the town was on the brink of disaster.

Ineresting how you are conflating illegals with migrant workers.

	Quote:
	Oooops they have been advertising, and advertising and advertising some more- but nope. All those in East Anglia who voted Brexit because foreigners were taking their job- have NOT applied...So it is now realised that the UK needs 70000 labourers to pick vegetables and soon, fruit. Many flights from Romania organised starting tomorrow, with a huge advertising campaing in Eastern Europe on the way. Just could NOT make it up. And in the middle of Covid crisis. Reminds me of going skiing in Steamboat in the 90s. The local redneck politicians had had a massive 'clean-out' getting rid of 1000s of 'irregular' workers. They were mightily pleased with themselves- until the ski season started and they realised they had no-one to clean and prepare food in Hôtels, restaurants, etc- no-one to man the lifts, groom the pistes, etc, etc- and the town was on the brink of disaster.

Leaving the EU doesn't stop us from hiring the people we need. Doesn't this just show that little has changed (and presumably will do even when we exit the transition period)? Obviously, trying to restrict fruit pickers coming here is just plain daft.

Its perfectly possible to be pro-brexit and pro-immigration. In my view its actually the more consistent position - the EU and its hangalongs is essence a protectionist block (just look at the immigration rules for Switzerland, and most other European countries...). Certainly it made a difference to me seeing the hoops my eminently qualified non-EU wife had to go through compared to an unskilled worker from the EU to stay in the UK. Surely its the equitable position to treat people the same regardless of where they come from. Can anyone really argue that the UKs proposed rules aren't much better than those they will replace?

For me, you can't really make a judgement on Brexit until a number of years after the event and see what direction we go in. If we go full on protectionist it'll be an unmitigated disaster. We could stay close to the EU, in which case not much will change. We could go in a less protectionist direction, in which case we should get richer.

	Quote:	amogles
	Ineresting how you are conflating illegals with migrant workers.

hmm no - I didn't

Oh yes, I remember the days when I was a kid in the early 50s growing up in Switzerland- and we had huge groups of seasonal workers from Italy- men on their own, living in abject conditions - 6 beds or more to a room, and each bed used by 3 people on a shift system, no bathroom, the casy in a shed at the back, paid a pittance, with no rights, often working in very dangerous conditions, including dangerous materials - sent home if they became sick or injured, without pay. And treated like dirt, like animals ... Cheap, cheap they were- wonderful.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	Ineresting how you are conflating illegals with migrant workers.

Fact of life mate
When the govt. Reduces visas and businesses need workers to survive then illegal is the only route.
Even the Trump organisation relies on many illegals.....

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	Fact of life mate When the govt. Reduces visas and businesses need cheap workers to survive then illegal is the only route. Even the Trump organisation relies on many illegals.....

ftfy

[marton]

	Quote:
	Fact of life mate When the govt. Reduces visas and businesses need cheap workers to survive then illegal is the only route. Even the Trump organisation relies on many illegals.....

	Quote:	k_and_e
	ftfy

This old chestnut

In the real world, there are jobs the locals will not do regardless of the level of payment.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	This old chestnut In the real world, there are jobs the locals will not do regardless of the level of payment.

I don't agree with that. If you can't find resources for your business, then there is simply not a business model.

[greenmount]

	Quote:
	Oh yes, I remember the days when I was a kid in the early 50s growing up in Switzerland- and we had huge groups of seasonal workers from Italy- men on their own, living in abject conditions - 6 beds or more to a room, and each bed used by 3 people on a shift system, no bathroom, the casy in a shed at the back, paid a pittance, with no rights, often working in very dangerous conditions, including dangerous materials - sent home if they became sick or injured, without pay. And treated like dirt, like animals ... Cheap, cheap they were- wonderful.

Nothing really changed in Europe since then. It's all unspoken of, but it's still there. Some roles have been reversed here and there, but treating seasonal workers badly is the norm. Those people don't live like that where they come from. They're making huge sacrifices for their families. They also need health and accident insurance, not to be sent back home when they're sick or unemployed.

And as pro-EU as I can (still) be, this is a thing I'll never be willing to just let it go.

As for the seasonal workers themselves, if you're unemployed or need those money to keep your family afloat, what would you do, Odile? I don't agree with freedom of movement during corona crisis though.

Besides, it's also the fault of these countries because they can't keep their much-needed workforce at home. Romania too (since you brought it up and it is my beloved country) has a chronic labour shortage, yet nobody/few is(are) willing to pay them the right salaries. This.

Our politicians just woke up recently saying we shouldn't discriminate the local producers. Now. In 2020. Because having unrestricted freedom of movement for goods/services means...basically exactly this. That we discriminate against own industries. Which in turn can't pay the workers properly or according to their expectations. But yeah... we all knew that. Way before they admitted publicly. Minister of Labour said she can't impede freedom of movement in EU or prevent people from getting a job where they wish. Riiiight. It's like this if you wondered. Very incompetent and complacent authorities who will be held responsible one day. It's just not the right time yet.

I don't see irony where you see irony because it was obvious (to me) that all the Brexit BS was just that - BS. I think not many people will come to the UK though, in spite of what media parades as post-Brexit "victories" - look, we can still get the people we need, Brexit is good!!. Those who will come now is because they really need those money and are taking the whole pandemic lightly. As if it was just a mass hysteria... As many do here on EF.
Sad.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	marton
	This old chestnut In the real world, there are jobs the locals will not do regardless of the level of payment.

Not true. Not if you tie their benefits to actually working for at least part of those money. Why bring foreign workforce when you have so many unemployed? Who picked up the crops before the '90s?

	Quote:	k_and_e
	I don't agree with that. If you can't find resources for your business, then there is simply not a business model.

This.

They don't want to pick "mushrooms", do something else then. You can get those mushrooms from somewhere else, somewhere where people don't think any work is beneath them.

[greenmount]

An article from The Economist.

	Quote:
	When borders close, who will pick the crops? No song captures the mood of Germany in spring quite like the 1930 hit “Veronika, the spring is here”: “The girls are singing tra-la-la, the whole world is enchanted. Veronika, the asparagus is sprouting!” April in Germany is Spargelzeit, or “asparagus time”. Purists race to farm stalls to buy the freshest stalks (white, unlike the green summer variety), and serve it up with sliced ham and hollandaise sauce or with breadcrumbs and butter. But this year much of the crop will rot in the fields. Border restrictions to fight covid-19 are keeping the eastern European agricultural workers who help to pick it at home. Germany normally employs 30,000 seasonal farmhands for the asparagus harvest, with 5,000 in the state of Brandenburg alone. So far in Brandenburg only about half that number have arrived. Germany’s border is open for Poles working in critical sectors, but Polish farm workers hesitate to cross it because their government says any who do will be quarantined for 14 days on their return. In late March, desperate asparagus farmers chartered a plane to fly in 190 Romanians. They nearly failed to get in: on March 25th Germany barred seasonal workers from countries that do not belong to the Schengen border-free zone. Asparagus is just the tip of a problem that European farmers will soon face. Germany will need almost 300,000 seasonal farmhands this year. France, where strawberry season is approaching, needs 200,000 in the next three months; between a third and two-thirds usually come from abroad. The Netherlands is Europe’s biggest agricultural exporter, but most of the workers who pick tomatoes and cucumbers in its greenhouses are from eastern Europe, and many will not come this year. Some industries can be put on hold, but not agriculture. On March 30th the European Commission laid out principles to make sure crucial employees, including seasonal farm workers, can cross borders. But Bulgarians and Romanians travelling to western Europe would normally go through Hungary, which shut its border with Romania in mid-March. (It has reopened, but mainly for freight and commuters who live near the frontier.) Even where borders are open, many workers are not coming, worried about contracting covid-19 abroad or being quarantined when they return. Staying at home means hardship. Nitfie Salimova, a Bulgarian, had planned to go to Belgium in May to pick berries, a job that last year earned her €150 ($160) per day. That is almost half the Bulgarian minimum monthly wage. Her earnings paid for smartphones for her daughters and a Black Sea holiday. The head of a Bulgarian agency that sends 500 workers per year to Germany, Austria and Britain says no one is going now; in fact, scores are heading home. In Poland the problem is not just loss of jobs in Germany, but a shortage of the Ukrainians who work on Polish farms. Jakub Sztandera, who grows mushrooms in Siedlce, employs 200 workers in his climate-controlled sheds, 90% of them Ukrainian. When Poland closed its borders on March 14th, Ukrainians rushed to leave, and Mr Sztandera is not sure how to replace them. Around 1.3m Ukrainians were estimated to be working in Poland before the border closed. The head of the country’s farmer’s union says that without them the food supply will be at risk. Some countries hope to limit the damage by letting workers who are already there stay longer. Belgium has lengthened work-permits for foreign farmhands, and Germany has extended the period in which they can work without paying local social security taxes. In the Netherlands a collapse of demand for flowers has left workers who came to pluck tulips with little to do; some have gone to vegetable farms. Another solution is to recruit locals idled by the shutdown. In Germany a website for farm jobs received thousands of postings on its first day. France’s agricultural umbrella organisation, the fnsea, says its new jobs site has 150,000 subscribers. An online jobs market in the Netherlands called “Help Us Harvest” has 2,500 openings. But it is not clear how many jobs have actually been filled. Europe’s farmers would rather not rely on first-timers. Edwin Veenhoeve, an asparagus farmer in the Netherlands, says that in the past 40 years perhaps ten Dutch people had ever applied to work the harvest on his family farm. This month alone 30 have applied. Still, compared with experienced Poles, Romanians and Bulgarians, they are not ideal farmhands, he adds: “Dutch people are used to working Monday to Friday, nine to five. But the asparagus keeps growing seven days a week.” ■ Dig deeper: For our latest coverage of the covid-19 pandemic, register for The Economist Today, our daily newsletter, or visit our coronavirus tracker and story hub

Now, seriously. This is ridiculous. Countries are in quarantine and fight against the pandemic and keep people in their homes and have closed the schools, but the battle on seasonal workers is so big and they outbid each other in a crazy race to bring people because their own population refuses to do these jobs.

All these lockdowns and quarantines and the medical staff having to treat the infected when they'll return - I'm sure some of them will die or get infected and sent back home.

This thing has irremediably compromised the idea of European Union in my view. Most people back home are simply outraged.

	Quote:	greenmount
	An article from The Economist. Now, seriously. This is ridiculous. Countries are in quarantine and fight against the pandemic and keep people in their homes and closed the schools, but the battle on seasonal workers is so big and they outbid each other in a crazy race to bring people because their own population refuses to do these jobs. All these lockdowns and quarantines and the medical staff having to treat the infected when they'll return - I'm sure some of them will die or get infected and send back home. This thing has compromised the idea of European Union.

What's the alternative. You'd have to pay Brits, Dutch, Swiss, Germans etc. a lot to pick fruit, and they'd do a much worse job. There probably aren't enough local unemployed in commutable distance.

I guess the alternative is having less, much more expensive fruit.

	Quote:	jorido
	Leaving the EU doesn't stop us from hiring the people we need. Doesn't this just show that little has changed (and presumably will do even when we exit the transition period)? Obviously, trying to restrict fruit pickers coming here is just plain daft. Its perfectly possible to be pro-brexit and pro-immigration. In my view its actually the more consistent position - the EU and its hangalongs is essence a protectionist block (just look at the immigration rules for Switzerland, and most other European countries...). Certainly it made a difference to me seeing the hoops my eminently qualified non-EU wife had to go through compared to an unskilled worker from the EU to stay in the UK. Surely its the equitable position to treat people the same regardless of where they come from. Can anyone really argue that the UKs proposed rules aren't much better than those they will replace? For me, you can't really make a judgement on Brexit until a number of years after the event and see what direction we go in. If we go full on protectionist it'll be an unmitigated disaster. We could stay close to the EU, in which case not much will change. We could go in a less protectionist direction, in which case we should get richer.

Funny how certain people think any opinion that is even moderately anti-EU (and not at all nasty or unpleasant) warrants a groan having moved to a country that is characterized by (moderate) euroskepticism.

I don't remotely mind (I've had a lot lot worse), but its systematic of a wider attitude held in certain quarters that people who are not in favour of continued EU membership are either stupid or malevolent, and as such are objects of either humour or scorn. I came to Switzerland from London and there were a lot of very angry closed minded people there. Funny, as they ended up adopting the very attitudes they professed to dislike (anger, intolerance).

A bit like how a certain faction in the Labour party professed to have "kinder, gentler politics", yet put up posters threatening and demeaning voters - "if you voted tory you are a nonce" was one I saw. Thankfully the real labour people have taken back control of their party.

I don't expect people to agree with me - there were many good reasons to vote remain. However, a lot of the problem with modern politics is a lack of tolerance for people with different views from one's own and I think its important to challenge oneself when you get tempted to behave like this.

On this point, it's really uplifting that Switzerland has a grand-coalition of sorts and doesn't seem to engage in anglosphere style tribalism.