The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	I think the 2 big elements to be decided in a deal (apart from the dozens of other issues) are: - tariffs and access to markets; and - passporting rules I would suggest the following broad deal which should be achievable: - UK out of EU/EEA - No automatic free movement, but but maybe limited free movement for those with a job offer, or studying as a concession - Reciprocal tariff-free access to markets in UK/EU - Continued reciprocal passporting rules for financial services

This kind of stuff would require referenda... to you really think that EU Commission want to have anymore on Europe??? You want that kind of thing you take EEA membership, you don't you take WTO trade rules those are the two offers that are least painful for the EU, so expect to see them on the table.

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Only thing is that you are not negotiating with 27 states, your negotiating with 24 states and the peoples of 3 states, France, Denmark and Ireland. Which is exactly why the deal DC was offered by the EU was so poor - they did not want to open the referenda can of worms... no doubt Le Pen would make it a referendum on the EU as possibly the Danish far right and no matter what you offer the Irish it would always be worse than what they currently have under the Common Travel Area. If don't expect the EU Commission will have much willingness to go beyond the offers that do not involve a referendum: - EFTA with no access to the single market - EEA access to the market but with FMOP, budget contributions etc... - WTO trading rules.

Very good point about "the peoples of 3 states, France, Denmark and Ireland.", I forgot that

So UK does not have so long as 2 years to negotiate; it is 2 years minus however long time it will take to organise such referenda (if needed). Nightmare isn't it?

[CathHarmony]

	Quote:	Kosti
	Well, check back in a few years and find out. I think it would require a more left version of Labour to get elected, let alone the Tories, but who knows. http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.a...immigration-uk https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-arti...EU-immigration Immigrants, especially from the EU contribute positively in taxes they pay vs benefits they take. So not clear on how leaving the EU will free up more money. And Ebbw Vale doesnt have very many migrants ...

I think i've added an article before that disputes that the 5bn is all that or that it reflects the true cost of immigration, and over 10 years? for on average 5% of the population? It does not sound like a lot to me.

You can keep saying it, but if the man on the street has another experience of mass immigration in an already crowded land.... I suspect these people meet in pubs, talk to each other and all have stories about how someone they know or are related to was adversely affected. You don't get this sort of vote because immigration positively affected them.

Maybe we could have achieved a higher amount by raising salaries and standards of living instead of importing more people and not raising salaries enough and lowering standards of living.

I dont presume there is only one way to run an economy, importing more and more and more and more people.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Kosti
	Do you realise that free movement today means free movement only for those with something to do, you know, like a job offer or study? Yeah, that's called the EEA. Congratulations Edit: Sorry, even the EEA doesnt have the ability to offer financial services on an equal footing. So basically, why should the UK get EEA+ ? Whats the leverage?

Well, I think studying is pretty uncontroversial, but immigrants looking for work is obviously a hot political issue. I guess a points system with bonus points for EU members could be put into place.

As for leverage, it's pretty much what already exists today. So they can choose that or veto it and leave the UK with WTO rules and:

- cause massive problems with their own economy as they have to disentangle existing businesses
- severely reduce the competitiveness of their products in the UK (thinking particularly about cars from Germany and Wine from France and Italy having to compete without the high tariff subsidy)
- all in the background of losing the second largest net contributor to the EU budget while the Eurozone crisis still remains in full swing

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	This kind of stuff would require referenda... to you really think that EU Commission want to have anymore on Europe??? You want that kind of thing you take EEA membership, you don't you take WTO trade rules those are the two offers that are least painful for the EU, so expect to see them on the table.

They don't, but they may anyway get more. Let's see what happens after the French and Dutch elections...

The EU is pretty good at getting them to vote again until they get it right...

[marton]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	I think the 2 big elements to be decided in a deal (apart from the dozens of other issues) are: - tariffs and access to markets; and - passporting rules I would suggest the following broad deal which should be achievable: - UK out of EU/EEA - No automatic free movement, but but maybe limited free movement for those with a job offer, or studying as a concession - Reciprocal tariff-free access to markets in UK/EU - Continued reciprocal passporting rules for financial services

Nothing about protecting people who already live and/or work in other countries
"- Reciprocal tariff-free access to markets in UK/EU" will also need cover "no quotas" and Reciprocal agreements about certifying goods meet the required UK/EU standards (back to the low powered kettle and curved bananas discussions ) plus other stuff I probably forgot.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	"The EU is not quite a cohesive organization." Indeed, any one of the 28 members could block or change a proposed deal between the EU and the UK. Just needs one EU country to be unhappy with us to block everything; consequently their leverage is enormous. For example, Ireland is likely to face increased costs and administration managing the land border so could demand the UK pay for this?

Why does there need to be a fully secured land border in Ireland?

Before Orban built his famous fence, there wasn't much of a border between Hungary and Serbia either. Otherwise he wouldn't have needed to erect that fence.

And I don't think he has much leverage if he wants to make Syria pay for it, or Germany for that matter. So I can't really see Ireland making the Uk pay for anything comparable.

Long before Switzerland signed any of the bilaterals you could quite easily walk into and out of Switzerland without having to show any documents. I walked three km into Italy once before I realized I had crossed a border and didn't have my passport on me. Why can't the Irish border be like that (as indeed it alraedy is)?

I think individual countries have a lot of leeway on how they interpret their obligations to protect borders.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	Nothing about protecting people who already live and/or work in other countries "- Reciprocal tariff-free access to markets in UK/EU" will also need cover "no quotas" and Reciprocal agreements about certifying goods meet the required UK/EU standards (back to the low powered kettle and curved bananas discussions ) plus other stuff I probably forgot.

that's why i said (apart from the dozens of other issues). with the big 2, the rest are just details

[marton]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	Well, I think studying is pretty uncontroversial, but immigrants looking for work is obviously a hot political issue. I guess a points system with bonus points for EU members could be put into place. As for leverage, it's pretty much what already exists today. So they can choose that or veto it and leave the UK with WTO rules and: - cause massive problems with their own economy as they have to disentangle existing businesses - severely reduce the competitiveness of their products in the UK (thinking particularly about cars from Germany and Wine from France and Italy having to compete without the high tariff subsidy) - all in the background of losing the second largest net contributor to the EU budget while the Eurozone crisis still remains in full swing

"cars from Germany " maybe if UK car exports are blocked Germany can sell more cars in other EU countries?
"Wine from France and Italy" maybe gives an opportunity for New World wines from Commonwealth countries to be sold in UK? Myself I prefer these wines to wines from France and Italy, luckily they are widely available in Switzerland

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	"cars from Germany " maybe if UK car exports are blocked Germany can sell more cars in other EU countries? "Wine from France and Italy" maybe gives an opportunity for New World wines from Commonwealth countries to be sold in UK? Myself I prefer these wines to wines from France and Italy, luckily they are widely available in Switzerland

Exactly, France, Italy etc. will lose to competition from the New World Wines.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	Why does there need to be a fully secured land border in Ireland? Before Orban built his famous fence, there wasn't much of a border between Hungary and Serbia either. Otherwise he wouldn't have needed to erect that fence. And I don't think he has much leverage if he wants to make Syria pay for it, or Germany for that matter. So I can't really see Ireland making the Uk pay for anything comparable. Long before Switzerland signed any of the bilaterals you could quite easily walk into and out of Switzerland without having to show any documents. I walked three km into Italy once before I realized I had crossed a border and didn't have my passport on me. Why can't the Irish border be like that (as indeed it alraedy is)? I think individual countries have a lot of leeway on how they interpret their obligations to protect borders.

"fully secured land border in Ireland?" I did not write "fully secured" but as a minimum they will need new Customs posts.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	"fully secured land border in Ireland?" I did not write "fully secured" but as a minimum they will need new Customs posts.

Yup. And I imagine them to be pretty lightly manned/enforced

Although some people claim there will be no land border, what with NI joining ROI

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	amogles
	Why does there need to be a fully secured land border in Ireland? Before Orban built his famous fence, there wasn't much of a border between Hungary and Serbia either. Otherwise he wouldn't have needed to erect that fence. And I don't think he has much leverage if he wants to make Syria pay for it, or Germany for that matter. So I can't really see Ireland making the Uk pay for anything comparable. Long before Switzerland signed any of the bilaterals you could quite easily walk into and out of Switzerland without having to show any documents. I walked three km into Italy once before I realized I had crossed a border and didn't have my passport on me. I think individual countries have a lot of leeway on how they interpret their obligations to protect borders.

I suspect that the NI border issue will be relatively simple, staffing the border, perhaps (re)building the physical infrastructure.


What about long term EU funded construction projects? Presumably they don't make an upfront payment in full to the contractors, so who will pay while they are completed?

[amogles]

	Quote:	lewton
	It may be anybody, e.g. Spain. If Spain, because of Gibraltar, refuses to ratify any agreement reached, then said agreement is void and the UK is out 2 years later.

If the Scots want to try the independce thing again, can't we give Gibraltar to Scotland and let them fight it out with Spain?

There is after all no strong reason that Gibraltar should belong to England. Didn't the Treaty of Utrecht give it to the United Kingdom rather than England specifically? And seeing the Gibraltarians want to be inside the EU, that should suit them too.

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	I suspect that the NI border issue will be relatively simple, staffing the border, perhaps (re)building the physical infrastructure. What about long term EU funded construction projects? Presumably they don't make an upfront payment in full to the contractors, so who will pay while they are completed?

President Trump?

Tom

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	"fully secured land border in Ireland?" I did not write "fully secured" but as a minimum they will need new Customs posts.

do they need even this?

Even prior to the bilaterals I remember many lesser border crossings between Switzerland and neighbouring countries consisted of a sign saying you are crossing a border and threatening you with prosecution if you cross illegally and a phone number to call in case of customs issues.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	that's why i said (apart from the dozens of other issues). with the big 2, the rest are just details

Details!! Not for the people who live and/or work in the EU.

[cyrus]

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	I'll read your post if you read mine, ok? I agree that the problem in the UK is not the EU. I hold that a sense of entitlement is a real stumbling block.

I don't think it's the younger generation that has a delusional sense of entitlement

	Quote:	st2lemans
	President Trump? Tom

Ahaha, some of those who wanted him banned from the UK may end up rooting for him to win, if they had the UK's interests at heart.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	amogles
	do they need even this? Even prior to the bilaterals I remember many lesser border crossings between Switzerland and neighbouring countries consisted of a sign saying you are crossing a border and threatening you with prosecution if you cross illegally and a phone number to call in case of customs issues.

I would think so, but then I am a pretty trusting person. If the UK want to keep control over who comes in then they probably want a fence.


Damn, I was just in Niagara on the Lake just a few weeks back, I should have checked to see if they still had the signs on the boat docks: "If you are arriving from the US, and have any goods that require reporting, please call Canada Customs at 1-800-xxxx"