The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Generally speaking your friends are not very reliable with it comes to something like this... they tend to be people of a similar disposition, who won't contradict you to much for friendship sake.

Great. Now we are the people that love caravans, drugs and Germans...

[marton]

My impression is that the EU has given up on Brexit and are focussing on other stuff.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	My impression is that the EU has given up on Brexit and are focussing on other stuff.

Trying to survive will be important going forward, as German cars are so well built the Brits can delay replacing for many years

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Japan will have a deal I believe https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...hnson-trade-eu

What a deal! It'll boost UK's economy by a humungous 0.05%!

At best.

And, either the parts that overlap with the EU-Japan FTA conform with that agreement or the EU is likely to block it.

	Quote:
	A free trade deal could increase trade flows between the UK and Tokyo by £15.2 billion, boosting the British economy by £1.5 billion, according to a government analysis.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	What a deal! It'll boost UK's economy by a humungous 0.05%! At best. And, either the parts that overlap with the EU-Japan FTA conform with that agreement or the EU is likely to block it.

Yet the FTA struck between the EU and Japan was a momentous occasion to be celebrated I think the speed with which the UK and Japan are looking to close this deal is something to be commended. Interesting how it's the grown up countries like Switzerland, South Korea and Japan who seem to be the most pragmatic to find a best way forward following the Brexit vote without point scoring.

With regard to the value of the deal, I think it is expecting too much to presume a single trade deal will ever knock economic growth out of the park. Trade deals will only ever see iterative economic benefit. The main economic advantage of Brexit is having full control over how the economy is run without having to work within the boundary conditions set by the EU. This is why it is of upmost importance that the UK continues to stand firm on the so called "level playing field" requirements the the EU is attempting to insert into any trade agreement.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Yet the FTA struck between the EU and Japan was a momentous occasion to be celebrated I think the speed with which the UK and Japan are looking to close this deal is something to be commended. Interesting how it's the grown up countries like Switzerland, South Korea and Japan who seem to be the most pragmatic to find a best way forward following the Brexit vote without point scoring. With regard to the value of the deal, I think it is expecting too much to presume a single trade deal will ever knock economic growth out of the park. Trade deals will only ever see iterative economic benefit. The main economic advantage of Brexit is having full control over how the economy is run without having to work within the boundary conditions set by the EU. This is why it is of upmost importance that the UK continues to stand firm on the so called "level playing field" requirements the the EU is attempting to insert into any trade agreement.

The FTA struck between the EU and Japan was the world's biggest such deal, it covers nearly a third of global GDP and 635 million people so, of course, it was a momentous occasion to be celebrated.
Some more details.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	The main economic advantage of Brexit is having full control over how the economy is run without having to work within the boundary conditions set by the EU. This is why it is of upmost importance that the UK continues to stand firm on the so called "level playing field" requirements the the EU is attempting to insert into any trade agreement.

And here we go again....

When you allow another country the level of access to your market that the Canadian and Japanese trade agreements give, you need to ensure that the other country is not able to take unfair advantage of you and that third countries are not able to use the agreement as a back door to your market.

That is why both agreements contain a clause requiring mutual agreement of the parties before either party can give a similar agreement to a third country such as the UK for instance.

Expecting experienced trade negotiators from the EU, the USA, Canada, Japan etc to disadvantage their countries to the extent necessary to give you the kind of deal you demand is childish.

But no doubt Boris has expectations that he can convince you it happened, after all he got you to happily accept a Withdrawal Agreement that included all the termS set out originally by the EU including a customs border down the Irish Sea.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Generally speaking your friends are not very reliable with it comes to something like this... they tend to be people of a similar disposition, who won't contradict you to much for friendship sake.

It is perfectly possibly to have a positive disposition towards Germany while disliking its leadership.

I have a positive dispoition towards quite a few European countries while disapproving of their leadership.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	But no doubt Boris has expectations that he can convince you it happened, after all he got you to happily accept a Withdrawal Agreement that included all the termS set out originally by the EU including a customs border down the Irish Sea.

This isn't true, all obligations regarding the level playing field were successfully removed by Boris Johnson from the Withdraw Agreement and transferred to the non-legally binding political declaration. This could yet prove important if the EU and UK do not come to a trade agreement.

[John William]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Trying to survive will be important going forward, as German cars are so well built the Brits can delay replacing for many years

Must say it's unlike you to play down the quality of British workmanship.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	John William
	Must say it's unlike you to play down the quality of British workmanship.

Just compare the reliability of a BMW mini made in the UK v a BMW made in Germany.

[John William]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Just compare the reliability of a BMW mini made in the UK v a BMW made in Germany.

So the EU member state of Germany has it's good points after all.

Vorsprung durch Technik !

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	This isn't true, all obligations regarding the level playing field were successfully removed by Boris Johnson from the Withdraw Agreement and transferred to the non-legally binding political declaration.

That's because the were never in it the first place, no wonder Boris finds it so easy to pull the wool over your eyes.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	John William
	So the EU member state of Germany has it's good points after all. Vorsprung durch Technik !

Trading is one thing, a political alliance something else. Ted Heath mislead parliament on this before the UK joined the EEC.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Yet the FTA struck between the EU and Japan was a momentous occasion to be celebrated I think the speed with which the UK and Japan are looking to close this deal is something to be commended. Interesting how it's the grown up countries like Switzerland, South Korea and Japan who seem to be the most pragmatic to find a best way forward following the Brexit vote without point scoring. With regard to the value of the deal, I think it is expecting too much to presume a single trade deal will ever knock economic growth out of the park. Trade deals will only ever see iterative economic benefit. The main economic advantage of Brexit is having full control over how the economy is run without having to work within the boundary conditions set by the EU. This is why it is of upmost importance that the UK continues to stand firm on the so called "level playing field" requirements the the EU is attempting to insert into any trade agreement.

"This is why it is of upmost importance that the UK continues to stand firm on the so called "level playing field" requirements the the EU is attempting to insert into any trade agreement."

It takes two to tango! Japan, like every other possible UK trade partner, will not risk upsetting the huge EU trade bloc by faiiing to conform to their own EU trade agreement. The UK is too small a trade partner.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Generally speaking your friends are not very reliable with it comes to something like this... they tend to be people of a similar disposition, who won't contradict you to much for friendship sake.

In general people tell you what they think you want to hear...it's human nature.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	greenmount
	In general people tell you what they think you want to hear...it's human nature.

I have never been so wet as to do that.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	And here we go again.... When you allow another country the level of access to your market that the Canadian and Japanese trade agreements give, you need to ensure that the other country is not able to take unfair advantage of you and that third countries are not able to use the agreement as a back door to your market.

Wonder how many Indian companies for instance had access on the EU market via UK... Of course people will talk only about Chinese investors....all these unearned privileges will vanish and rightly so.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	If the fiscal policy is fair and well designed, then yes, absolutely. The problem is that member countries have totally different visions on taxation.

What do you think it would be fair or well designed? Some countries have a high level of (progressive) taxation and others are more like what we'd call a fiscal paradise.

What happenes now is that certain companies that have total access to resources and privileges in an EU country transfer all their profits to that EU fiscal paradise and that is unfair for the host countries. Taxes that could be used to increase the level/quality of public services and reduce discrepancies within EU are simply not there. Gone with the wind.
Do you think that is fair?

	Quote:	greenmount
	What do you think it would be fair or well designed? Some countries have a high level of (progressive) taxation and others are more like what we'd call a fiscal paradise. What happenes now is that certain companies that have total access to resources and privileges in an EU country transfer all their profits to that EU fiscal paradise and that is unfair for the host countries. Taxes that could be used to increase the level/quality of public services and reduce discrepancies within EU are simply not there. Gone with the wind. Do you think that is fair?

No, not fair. I fully agree with you.

You need to push the same tax system to all member states but it would probably be impossible to achieve that as there are so many different interests.