The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[jacek]

All this long Brexit thread and here comes the news. Surprise, surprise. No sweat ... It seems like someone has to pull the trigger first. This might take some time.

EU leaders reject informal talks with UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36644211

[Sbrinz]

The EU have now said they will not begin negotiating with the UK, until article 50 has been activated.

Good luck with the idea that "They will be happy to negotiate a trade deal...!"

Now it is obvious that Boris, Gove and Nigel have lead all the Brexiters up the wrong path, welcome to the world of WTO rules.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36644211

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	jacek
	All this long Brexit thread and here comes the news. Surprise, surprise. No sweat ... It seems like someone has to pull the trigger first. This might take some time. EU leaders reject informal talks with UK http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36644211

As I read article 50 the one leaving has to pull the trigger. The EU isn't throwing the UK out, they have chosen to leave.

[Phos]

Bah, the EU says a lot of things, most of which are merely smoke and mirrors.

[Phil_MCR]

It's up to the UK to pull the trigger. Not going to happen soon since the Tory party have to have an internal leadership contest first, then decide what position they want to take before they can even begin.

Maybe they should wait until after the Dutch and French elections to see what happens.

This would leave everyone to adjust to the new limbo period and confirm that WWIII has not broken out as predicted. Then they can give notice.

I think the WTO option has to be a very strong likelihood given how dysfunctional the EU is, but perhaps Germany can whip everyone into line.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	The EU have now said they will not begin negotiating with the UK, until article 50 has been activated. Good luck with the idea that "They will be happy to negotiate a trade deal...!" Now it is obvious that Boris, Gove and Nigel have lead all the Brexiters up the wrong path, welcome to the world of WTO rules. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36644211

Well, Cameron has said that he won't activate article 50, it will be for his successor to do that. Unless he changes his mind, this means nothing will happen before October.

And a lot can happen between now and then.

	Quote:	Phos
	Bah, the EU says a lot of things, most of which are merely smoke and mirrors.

The more the EU continues pis$$ing people off, the more mess when the brown stuff hits the fan.

I would have thought they might interpret the Brexit as a warning, but obviously not. The suicide course must continue.

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	amogles
	Unless he changes his mind, this means nothing will happen before October. And a lot can happen between now and then.

Among many things that will happen is that Berlin, Roma and Paris will get even more crossed and will have to think of their own elections. Between being reasonable towards London and being re-elected, the choice is easy.

[jacek]

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	As I read article 50 the one leaving has to pull the trigger. The EU isn't throwing the UK out, they have chosen to leave.

This sounds a bit like a long term relationship with a committed girlfriend who loves her partner beyond her mind. One day when he announced that he wanted to leave her, she replied: "I gave you all my love and all my support in everything you were up to. Too bad if it wasn't good enough for you. Well, it's your choice. The door stays open, but should you choose to stay or come back some day, you are always welcome. This is my unconditional love. I'll be there for you. So the conflicted and torn apart boyfriend has decide just to ... tbc"

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	do they need even this? Even prior to the bilaterals I remember many lesser border crossings between Switzerland and neighbouring countries consisted of a sign saying you are crossing a border and threatening you with prosecution if you cross illegally and a phone number to call in case of customs issues.

"need" has little to do with politics.
The Irish and UK governments will decide what to do about the border. Probably will depend which side sees smuggling as a potentially big tax loss.

If the Irish see it as a lever to get funding from the UK then they could make a big deal out of it. Or maye they will be nice to the UK.
The ball is in their court

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	jacek
	This sounds a bit like a long term relationship with a committed girlfriend who loves her partner beyond her mind. One day when he announced that he wanted to leave her, she replied: "I gave you all my love and all my support in everything you were up to. Too bad if it wasn't good enough for you. Well, it's your choice. The door stays open, but should you chose to stay or come back, you are always welcome. This is my unconditional love. I'll be there for you. So the conflicted and torn apart boyfriend ... tbc"

jacek,


That may be what you think, but the procedure is defined in a legal document that clearly lays out the procedure.


It is interesting to note that until 2007 there was no legal document that dealt with how a member could leave.

[Pashosh]

The conservative leader was against Brexit and quit.
The Labour leader didn't quit - Is he for or against Brexit ?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Faltrad
	Among many things that will happen is that Berlin, Roma and Paris will get even more crossed and will have to think of their own elections. Between being reasonable towards London and being re-elected, the choice is easy.

All of those countries have growing euroscepticism so i don't think staying the course on Europe at all costs is a sure trick to secure the best possible reelection. The biggest threat to the CDU right now comes from the right, not the left. Similarly in France, the big parties are more scared of the FN than they are of one another. As the election campaigns build up, expect certain concessions to be floated that they will later struggle to backpeddle on.

And it's a bit difficult to be talking about re-thinking Europe and taking back more national rights in an election campaign, while being totally tough on the UK immediately afterwards.

[Kosti]

It will come down to the unemployment rate, and how it goes with respect to other EU countries as 2016 ends.

Farage, seeing the writing on the wall, has already 'predicted' a recession, while claiming it will be due to other factors.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...recession.html

I dont see how unemployment goes anywhere but up. Investment will shut down until the nature of the post Brexit relationship becomes clear.
Then Merkel, Hollande, Renzi will have a number to point to, as opposed to the endless predictions of prosperity by Boris.

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	amogles
	All of those countries have growing euroscepticism

But euroscepticism is not nationalistic in Germany or France, it's divided between left and far-right. In each case, the elections are to be won in the middle. Security issues take care of the not too loony right wings and in Germany, the idea of having country leaving because they don't want to pay in solidarity is not popular even in the CSU. Italy needs Europe to organize itself and they contribute too, so don't count on them either.

Yes, there are euroscepticism in those countries and a couple more, but the anti-British feeling is by far compensating for it and quite a bit more - in my opinion. I understand that it is not your opinion. Fine by me.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Faltrad
	Among many things that will happen is that Berlin, Roma and Paris will get even more crossed and will have to think of their own elections. Between being reasonable towards London and being re-elected, the choice is easy.

France will vote Le Pen and will have its own referendum and exit to deal with

[spalebärg]

Is that true what Paul Joseph Watson is saying that there are privileged champagne Socialists (otherwise known as younger members of the Labour Party) in the UK demanding another referendum on the same subject?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	France will vote Le Pen and will have it's on referendum and exit to deal with

If a vote was held today, a majority of French would back a Frexit.
The sentiment extends well beyong Marine's own voters. This could well be her SVP moment.

As for Italy, the 5-star movement which has been making all the news of late doesn't have the trappings of a typical rightist movement, but is closely linked to UKIP. I think there is mich more sympathy for the British position out there than Faltrad wants to accept.

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	France will vote Le Pen and will have it's on referendum and exit to deal with

hahaha
Just for fun: You know France... even the communists voted for Chirac rather than Le Pen. It will be the same with the daughter. The concept of front républicain is totally un-understandable for non-French, I know. The alternative: Let's say that France think of itself as the inspiration, the DNA and the origin of all democracy and european peace incl. the EU, so for France, even leaving the EU would leave the EU in France.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Faltrad
	hahaha Just for fun: You know France... even the communists voted for Chirac rather than Le Pen. It will be the same with the daughter. The concept of front républicain is totally un-understandable for non-French, I know. The alternative: Let's say that France think of itself as the inspiration, the DNA and the origin of all democracy and european peace incl. the EU, so for France, even leaving the EU would leave the EU in France.

A lot has changed since then. Marine has managed to shake off much of the negative stigma that her father had. I don't think the Pavlovian anti-FN reflex is anywhere near as strong as it was back then. If anything, Marine is positioning herself as the defender of French Republican values against those who would sell them out to the EU.

There are speculations that it depends on who will win the first round in the presidential elections. If a centrist candidate eliminates a left wing candidate, there may be a repeat of the Chirac effect. However, if a leftist candiadte eliminates the centrist one, a significant part of centrist voters may actually slip to the right.

[Faltrad]

Same answer in both cases - and I do understand and respect that we don't have the same opinion:

	Quote:	amogles
	There are speculations that it depends on who will win the first round in the presidential elections.

You can however speculate on the trend. But remember it's France, we change fashion trend twice a year so in politics...

	Quote:	amogles
	If a vote was held today, a majority of French would back a Frexit.

It's not what it says in the newspaper. http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Polit...Frexit-1003309
You can however speculate on the trend. But remember it's France, we change fashion trend twice a year so in politics...