The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	To clarify, I sympathise with BOTH sides and have no dog in this fight. When one looks at poor Italy, they have really done badly out of EU membership, I was reading an article recently that said that Italy has seen NO GDP growth since joining the Euro 20 years ago! Just like Greece, they have suffered with the weight of the single currency. If I had suffered this much then I would also want my politicians to fight for a good deal!

However Italy's unit labor cost has increased 30-40% since the millenium or even more. If everything except labor cost the same, that would amount to 60-70% wage increases.

It's essentially the same as with Greece (though Greece's increase was 2-3-4 times that): they reap unearned benefits, and someone has to pay for it.

[John William]

Oh well British tourists hopes to Lets Get Going to Sunny Spain are quashed this summer and with only
five months to go before the end of the Transition period as well.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	However Italy's unit labor cost has increased 30-40% since the millenium or even more. If everything except labor cost the same, that would amount to 60-70% wage increases. It's essentially the same as with Greece (though Greece's increase was 2-3-4 times that): they reap unearned benefits, and someone has to pay for it.

Indeed, it's rather a chicken and egg scenario as to where the blame lies, as ever with these matters it's somewhere in between. With the benefit hindsight, there's no doubt that Greece and Italy would have been better off had they no joined the Euro.

Back to the EU bailout fund agreement, here's an interesting take of the state of the Eurozone following the agreement. The Euro is still very much at risk.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...-the-eurozone/

[John William]

The British savings from opting out of the EU Recovery fund after leaving the EU has gone up because
according to this MEP, the UK saved 80 billion Euros or roughly £72 billion pounds.

German MEP congratulates Brexit for saving 80 billion Euros

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	With the benefit hindsight, there's no doubt that Greece and Italy would have been better off had they no joined the Euro.

Right, because they were such strong and well run economies before hand and no doubt in your mind outside the Euro their exchequers would have had sufficient depth to manage their currencies against the Euro unlike say Switzerland.... who at one point held Euro debt equivalent to the current deficit of the seven largest Euro group economies and still could not do it.

The only one with no doubt is you and you are welcome to your delusion.

[marton]

	Quote:	John William
	The British savings from opting out of the EU Recovery fund after leaving the EU has gone up because according to this MEP, the UK saved 80 billion Euros or roughly £72 billion pounds. German MEP congratulates Brexit for saving 80 billion Euros

Even better for the NHS.

	Quote:	John William
	The British savings from opting out of the EU Recovery fund after leaving the EU has gone up because according to this MEP, the UK saved 80 billion Euros or roughly £72 billion pounds. German MEP congratulates Brexit for saving 80 billion Euros

So maybe a small compensation for the double economic shock (Brexit and Covid) that the LSE are forecasting.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ds-coronavirus

[JackieH]

''
The analysis, seen by the Guardian ahead of its publication on Wednesday, includes information from a monthly survey of Confederation of British Industry (CBI) members.
“Our analysis shows that the sectors that will be affected by Brexit and those that are suffering from the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown are generally different from each other,” said Swati Dhingra, co-author and economics professor at the LSE.
A “simultaneous impact” will be felt across the business spectrum from Brexit and coronavirus from the autumn when chancellor Rishi Sunak’s new policies aimed at supporting the unemployed end and the new trading environment for Brexit begins to bite, the research finds.
The report, titled Covid-19 and Brexit: Real-Time Updates on Business Performance in the United Kingdom by the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance shows that sectors entailing more human contact - including hospitality, air travel, restaurants, hotels, and arts and entertainment – have been the hardest hit by the pandemic.
Other sectors such as the scientific industries, professional services including accountancy, legal services and publishing have been less impacted because they can continue to operate with staff working from home.
Among those reportedly continuing to operate with remote working are firms such as Vodafone, Google, consultancy KPMG, GlaxoSmithKline, Rolls Royce and consumer goods giant Unilever.
But Brexit will impose new barriers on those trading goods or services with the EU, whether pharmaceutical companies seeking regulatory approval, banks or services needing to transfer data from servers in the bloc or car manufacturers or clothes importers required to fill in customs declarations for the first time in decades.''

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Right, because they were such strong and well run economies before hand and no doubt in your mind outside the Euro their exchequers would have had sufficient depth to manage their currencies against the Euro unlike say Switzerland.... who at one point held Euro debt equivalent to the current deficit of the seven largest Euro group economies and still could not do it. The only one with no doubt is you and you are welcome to your delusion.

What part of has had ZERO economic growth since she joined the Eurozone do you fail to understand?! The data is all there, the economy was in far better shape BEFORE joining the Eurozone. You're the deluded one!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Italy

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Right, because they were such strong and well run economies before hand and no doubt in your mind outside the Euro their exchequers would have had sufficient depth to manage their currencies against the Euro unlike say Switzerland.... who at one point held Euro debt equivalent to the current deficit of the seven largest Euro group economies and still could not do it. The only one with no doubt is you and you are welcome to your delusion.

The problem is, with the current configuration one country's mismanagement becomes everybody's problem, as evidenced by the Euro crisis. A national currency OTOH could and would be used as a valve to mitigate the pressure caused by imbalances between the countries, and it would allow for each country to have its own economic policies and interest rate level.

Given the differences on many levels, the problems that would have a pressure valve with a local currency will keep showing up. It's only a matter of time.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	What part of has had ZERO economic growth since she joined the Eurozone do you fail to understand?! The data is all there, the economy was in far better shape BEFORE joining the Eurozone. You're the deluded one! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Italy

Italy joined the eurozone in 1999, GDP in 2000 was 3.7%

GDP 1.252 trillion USD (1999)
GDP 2.040 trillion USD (2018)

Strange sort of zero growth, looks close to double?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Italy joined the eurozone in 1999, GDP in 2000 was 3.7% GDP 1.252 trillion USD (1999) GDP 2.040 trillion USD (2018) Strange sort of zero growth, looks close to double?

You are forgetting the Euro was stronger was worth more than a USD in 2000 so nearer 30% in 20 years or 1.3% compound

[JackieH]

True Tories are now seeing the light - and is about to split into two- to attempt to stop the far right ERG, Cummings and Johnson from taking us off the cliffs of No Deal. Even they know now that they have been 'had'.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	Italy joined the eurozone in 1999, GDP in 2000 was 3.7% GDP 1.252 trillion USD (1999) GDP 2.040 trillion USD (2018) Strange sort of zero growth, looks close to double?

Italy's GDP in billion Zimbabwe Dollars

2006: 10'000
2007: 100'000
2008: 1'000'000'000
2009: 1'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000

THAT's growth!

[JackieH]

Even Tony Robinson is moving to Spain - and Farage will be off soon.

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	marton
	Italy joined the eurozone in 1999, GDP in 2000 was 3.7% GDP 1.252 trillion USD (1999) GDP 2.040 trillion USD (2018) Strange sort of zero growth, looks close to double?

And what is it in CHF?

Tom

	Quote:	st2lemans
	And what is it in CHF? Tom

How is that relevant? I'll excuse US$ as that is frequently used for GDP. But surely the only really relevant number for an Italian is €.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	How is that relevant? I'll excuse US$ as that is frequently used for GDP. But surely the only really relevant number for an Italian is €.

CHF as this is EF, Euro would make sense.
As this is about BREXIT in GBP which hit CHF 2.60 in 2001

[JackieH]

and what about now, Brexit and Covid combo permitting? About 50% down and more. I predict Sterling will get to parity or less as and when the effects of No Deal and Covid 2n phase hit.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	You are forgetting the Euro was stronger was worth more than a USD in 2000 so nearer 30% in 20 years or 1.3% compound

Whatever! I just wanted to disprove the claim of zero economic growth so I quoted the World Bank GDP numbers.