The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	JackieH
	and what about now, Brexit and Covid combo permitting? About 50% down and more. I predict Sterling will get to parity or less as and when the effects of No Deal and Covid 2n phase hit.

I don't see a huge move in sterling, neither BREXIT nor Covid are 'new information' for the markets to digest & Europe will suffer from both.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I don't see a huge move in sterling, neither BREXIT nor Covid are 'new information' for the markets to digest & Europe will suffer from both.

The continent (Japan as well) will have had 4.5 years to prepare by the end of the year, and it'll be four years since the "trading under WTO terms" idea was floated the first time. That should be enough time to adapt to, and mitigate the effect of, most problems. The impact of Brexit on EU's economy should be small by now. Whether that applies to the UK is a different question, after all they have nowhere else to go.

And the GFA is still an open issue.

As for Covid, that jury's still out, but seeing how Boris is handling it I'd much rather be anywhere on the continent instead, including Italy and Spain.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The continent (Japan as well) will have had 4.5 years to prepare by the end of the year, and it'll be four years since the "trading under WTO terms" idea was floated the first time. That should be enough time to adapt to, and mitigate the effect of, most problems. The impact of Brexit on EU's economy should be small by now. Whether that applies to the UK is a different question, after all they have nowhere else to go. And the GFA is still an open issue. As for Covid, that jury's still out, but seeing how Boris is handling it I'd much rather be anywhere on the continent instead, including Italy and Spain.

Japan will have a deal I believe
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...hnson-trade-eu

[JackieH]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I don't see a huge move in sterling, neither BREXIT nor Covid are 'new information' for the markets to digest & Europe will suffer from both.

No Deal, and no other deals about from measly ones, + massive second wave for Covid- will be a shock to markets- I am sure.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	JackieH
	No Deal, and no other deals about from measly ones, + massive second wave for Covid- will be a shock to markets- I am sure.

The second wave will effect the countries that prevented the first wave, UK will do fine.

[JackieH]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The second wave will effect the countries that prevented the first wave, UK will do fine.

Pardon?

[JackieH]

A “simultaneous impact” from Brexit and coronavirus will be felt across the business spectrum from the autumn when the chancellor Rishi Sunak’s pandemic policies aimed at supporting the unemployed end and the new trading environment for the UK outside the EU begins to bite, the research finds.


Covid-19 and Brexit impact.



If your theory is correct Mr Fatman- why does Boris bother to quarantine those returning from Spain. Surely then the more the merrier- spread it like Marmite.

[amogles]

	Quote:	JackieH
	If your theory is correct Mr Fatman- why does Boris bother to quarantine those returning from Spain. Surely then the more the merrier- spread it like Marmite.

From what my Spanish friends are telling me, the loss of tourism over Covid has hit certain parts of Spain very hard and given people a preview of what Brexit might mean for them. The spectre of Brexit is hurting both tourism and the real estate market for pensioners. They are blaming the EU for not having been more creative in finding special solutions. They say the EU was defending only German interests over Brexit and did not even look at or consult Spain. They are blaming the Spanish government for being too sheepish in Brussels and allowing Germany to trample over their interests.

So maybe Boris is rubbing it in to forment that euroscepticism.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	From what my Spanish friends are telling me, the loss of tourism over Covid has hit certain parts of Spain very hard and given people a preview of what Brexit might mean for them. The spectre of Brexit is hurting both tourism and the real estate market for pensioners. They are blaming the EU for not having been more creative in finding special solutions. They say the EU was defending only German interests over Brexit and did not even look at or consult Spain. They are blaming the Spanish government for being too sheepish in Brussels and allowing Germany to trample over their interests. So maybe Boris is rubbing it in to forment that euroscepticism.

Generally speaking your friends are not very reliable with it comes to something like this... they tend to be people of a similar disposition, who won't contradict you to much for friendship sake.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Generally speaking your friends are not very reliable with it comes to something like this... they tend to be people of a similar disposition, who won't contradict you to much for friendship sake.

Great. Now we are the people that love caravans, drugs and Germans...

[marton]

My impression is that the EU has given up on Brexit and are focussing on other stuff.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	My impression is that the EU has given up on Brexit and are focussing on other stuff.

Trying to survive will be important going forward, as German cars are so well built the Brits can delay replacing for many years

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Japan will have a deal I believe https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...hnson-trade-eu

What a deal! It'll boost UK's economy by a humungous 0.05%!

At best.

And, either the parts that overlap with the EU-Japan FTA conform with that agreement or the EU is likely to block it.

	Quote:
	A free trade deal could increase trade flows between the UK and Tokyo by £15.2 billion, boosting the British economy by £1.5 billion, according to a government analysis.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	What a deal! It'll boost UK's economy by a humungous 0.05%! At best. And, either the parts that overlap with the EU-Japan FTA conform with that agreement or the EU is likely to block it.

Yet the FTA struck between the EU and Japan was a momentous occasion to be celebrated I think the speed with which the UK and Japan are looking to close this deal is something to be commended. Interesting how it's the grown up countries like Switzerland, South Korea and Japan who seem to be the most pragmatic to find a best way forward following the Brexit vote without point scoring.

With regard to the value of the deal, I think it is expecting too much to presume a single trade deal will ever knock economic growth out of the park. Trade deals will only ever see iterative economic benefit. The main economic advantage of Brexit is having full control over how the economy is run without having to work within the boundary conditions set by the EU. This is why it is of upmost importance that the UK continues to stand firm on the so called "level playing field" requirements the the EU is attempting to insert into any trade agreement.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Yet the FTA struck between the EU and Japan was a momentous occasion to be celebrated I think the speed with which the UK and Japan are looking to close this deal is something to be commended. Interesting how it's the grown up countries like Switzerland, South Korea and Japan who seem to be the most pragmatic to find a best way forward following the Brexit vote without point scoring. With regard to the value of the deal, I think it is expecting too much to presume a single trade deal will ever knock economic growth out of the park. Trade deals will only ever see iterative economic benefit. The main economic advantage of Brexit is having full control over how the economy is run without having to work within the boundary conditions set by the EU. This is why it is of upmost importance that the UK continues to stand firm on the so called "level playing field" requirements the the EU is attempting to insert into any trade agreement.

The FTA struck between the EU and Japan was the world's biggest such deal, it covers nearly a third of global GDP and 635 million people so, of course, it was a momentous occasion to be celebrated.
Some more details.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	The main economic advantage of Brexit is having full control over how the economy is run without having to work within the boundary conditions set by the EU. This is why it is of upmost importance that the UK continues to stand firm on the so called "level playing field" requirements the the EU is attempting to insert into any trade agreement.

And here we go again....

When you allow another country the level of access to your market that the Canadian and Japanese trade agreements give, you need to ensure that the other country is not able to take unfair advantage of you and that third countries are not able to use the agreement as a back door to your market.

That is why both agreements contain a clause requiring mutual agreement of the parties before either party can give a similar agreement to a third country such as the UK for instance.

Expecting experienced trade negotiators from the EU, the USA, Canada, Japan etc to disadvantage their countries to the extent necessary to give you the kind of deal you demand is childish.

But no doubt Boris has expectations that he can convince you it happened, after all he got you to happily accept a Withdrawal Agreement that included all the termS set out originally by the EU including a customs border down the Irish Sea.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Generally speaking your friends are not very reliable with it comes to something like this... they tend to be people of a similar disposition, who won't contradict you to much for friendship sake.

It is perfectly possibly to have a positive disposition towards Germany while disliking its leadership.

I have a positive dispoition towards quite a few European countries while disapproving of their leadership.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	But no doubt Boris has expectations that he can convince you it happened, after all he got you to happily accept a Withdrawal Agreement that included all the termS set out originally by the EU including a customs border down the Irish Sea.

This isn't true, all obligations regarding the level playing field were successfully removed by Boris Johnson from the Withdraw Agreement and transferred to the non-legally binding political declaration. This could yet prove important if the EU and UK do not come to a trade agreement.

[John William]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Trying to survive will be important going forward, as German cars are so well built the Brits can delay replacing for many years

Must say it's unlike you to play down the quality of British workmanship.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	John William
	Must say it's unlike you to play down the quality of British workmanship.

Just compare the reliability of a BMW mini made in the UK v a BMW made in Germany.