The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	3Wishes
	So the EU wants to play tough so as to discourage other countries from getting their own exit ideas, and Johnson is willing to call their bluff even if it breaks an existing law or agreement?

It appears that way, I'm still not reading too much into it though. Talks were not going anywhere and they rather needed to blow up in order for people to kiss and make up and get real.

At some point the EU are going to have to accept their share of the responsibility in Ireland if things do turn sour. It was a conscious decision to use Ireland to gain leverage which to be fair has worked very well so far. It's however all very well saying that the UK chose to leave the EU and it's unacceptable if this results in a hard border on the island of Ireland. Likewise, it's also equally unacceptable that by simply leaving the EU the UK should lose some of her sovereignty over NI and create a hard border within the country.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	3Wishes
	So the EU wants to play tough so as to discourage other countries from getting their own exit ideas, and Johnson is willing to call their bluff even if it breaks an existing law or agreement?

So the UK have left the EU, but unlike other third countries think that they should be able to get a trade deal that includes unrestricted access to the single market without obligations to abide by the rules... and further thinks that the EU heads of state will disadvantage themselves to give them such a deal....

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	So the UK have left the EU, but unlike other third countries think that they should be able to get a trade deal that includes unrestricted access to the single market without obligations to abide by the rules... and further thinks that the EU heads of state will disadvantage themselves to give them such a deal....

This simply isn't true. The UK has asked for a trade deal along the same lines as those made between the EU and Canada/Japan (including the restrictions that come with those agreements). I refer you to my previous point.

	Quote:
	the absolute worst case scenario for the EU is that the UK leaves and thrives outside its clutches. Understand this and everything becomes a lot clearer

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	This simply isn't true. The UK has asked for a trade deal along the same lines as those made between the EU and Canada/Japan (including the restrictions that come with those agreements). I refer you to my previous point.

Those trade deals do not contain financial passporting, fishing, security (e.g. Europol and Schengen Information System databases), transport or energy.

Continuing participation in European science and research programmes are of vital importance to the UK tech sector but not addressed.

Northern ireland is clearly also a challenge.

	Quote:	marton
	Part of the GFA is to have an open border in Ireland. If the UK reneges on the deal to have a trade barrier between N. Ireland and the GB then there will be an open border between GB and the EU which will not be ideal for either side.

What our rabid No Deal Brexit fans refuse to admit is that the Good Friday Agreement, and peace on the island of Ireland, was ONLY possible because both Ireland and the UK were members of the EU. And furthermore, the main driver for the creation after WWII of the EU in the first place was to guarantee peace in Europe and avoid another destructive war.

They will never admit that the EU has held its members together and protected them from war, and the member countries are far better off inside it than outside. I guess it will take a couple of generations before the Brexit fiasco can be reversed, unless a future British government can be substantially less arrogant than the current one and swallow its pride for the common good.

When Trump egged May on to leave Europe, everybody should have realised that Brexit would be a disastrous idea.

[marton]

	Quote:	3Wishes
	So the EU wants to play tough so as to discourage other countries from getting their own exit ideas, and Johnson is willing to call their bluff even if it breaks an existing law or agreement?

That is an oversimplification.

When two parties negotiate an agreement they both want to get the best deal.

Those of us against Brexit has been saying for years that GB is too small to have a strong negotiating position and will come off badly in any new negotiation.

The UK GDP is around $3 trillion whereas the EU is around $17 trillion so clearly the EU has the upper hand.
Not helped by the fact that the Northern Ireland situation is a terrible mess.
Pragmatically Boris should cut NI loose because there is no other way out of this mess or rejoin the EU.

I mean Brexit has been fun but clearly it is not going to function as people hoped.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	This simply isn't true. The UK has asked for a trade deal along the same lines as those made between the EU and Canada/Japan (including the restrictions that come with those agreements). I refer you to my previous point.

It was on the table and rejected.

[TonyClifton]

A trade deal between Japan and the UK has been agreed! One that goes beyond that signed between Japan and the EU, something many said simply wasn't possible!

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	That is an oversimplification. When two parties negotiate an agreement they both want to get the best deal. Those of us against Brexit has been saying for years that GB is too small to have a strong negotiating position and will come off badly in any new negotiation. The UK GDP is around $3 trillion whereas the EU is around $17 trillion so clearly the EU has the upper hand. Not helped by the fact that the Northern Ireland situation is a terrible mess. Pragmatically Boris should cut NI loose because there is no other way out of this mess or rejoin the EU. I mean Brexit has been fun but clearly it is not going to function as people hoped.

since the uk has always bought more than it sold to the EU. the uk has the upper hand. Total GDP is irrelevant

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	A trade deal between Japan and the UK has been agreed! One that goes beyond that signed between Japan and the EU, something many said simply wasn't possible!

Finally a decent trade deal.
They seem to be keeping quiet about the freedom of movement part that allows the Japanese to easily come here and work.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	marton
	Finally a decent trade deal. They seem to be keeping quiet about the freedom of movement part that allows the Japanese to easily come here and work.

We will be swamped by those Japanese in no time. .

I don't think your average brexit voter would care a jot about Japanese immigration, or even notice tbh. In reality its going to be small numbers, and mostly white collar. They didn't care about Western European immigration either.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	since the uk has always bought more than it sold to the EU. the uk has the upper hand. Total GDP is irrelevant

If the UK is genuinely prepared to walk that might be the case. I'm still skeptical that Boris would really no-deal.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	If the UK is genuinely prepared to walk that might be the case. I'm still skeptical that Boris would really no-deal.

I think you can count on Boris walking.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I think you can count on Boris walking.

Rumour is he's going to be walking away from more than the EU before long.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	We will be swamped by those Japanese in no time. . I don't think your average brexit voter would care a jot about Japanese immigration, or even notice tbh. In reality its going to be small numbers, and mostly white collar. They didn't care about Western European immigration either.

I also think a majority of have no concerns about Japanese citizens coming to the UK for business.

The good thing about this deal, and the other rollover deals that have been agreed is that they've dispelled two "lies" of the Brexit referendum (which is important considering how Remainers always like to remind us of lies told by Brexiteers).

Firstly, we were told that only big trade blocs like the EU could get "good" trade deals. We'll await the small print, however it sounds as if the UK has gotten a better trade deal than the EU has in place.

Secondly, we were also told how long it takes to negotiate trade deals. The UK has managed to agree a trade deal with Japan in an incredible short space of time and has rolled over about 70% (in terms of volume) of the EU trade deals already in place. With an Australian trade deal on the horizon, and rollover arrangements with Turkey and EEA to also be arranged soon it seems that it only takes long to negotiate a trade deal if the EU is involved!

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	If the UK is genuinely prepared to walk that might be the case. I'm still skeptical that Boris would really no-deal.

I'm still sceptical too, the number of recent U-turns doesn't fill me with confidence either. I am however glad the Internal Market Bill passed last night. Whatever one thinks of it, its clear the UK has finally done something that has made the EU sit up and take notice. For far too long the EU has had everything their own way in the negotiations, for the most part because the UK Parliament was batting for the other team!

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I also think a majority of have no concerns about Japanese citizens coming to the UK for business. The good thing about this deal, and the other rollover deals that have been agreed is that they've dispelled two "lies" of the Brexit referendum (which is important considering how Remainers always like to remind us of lies told by Brexiteers). Firstly, we were told that only big trade blocs like the EU could get "good" trade deals. We'll await the small print, however it sounds as if the UK has gotten a better trade deal than the EU has in place. Secondly, we were also told how long it takes to negotiate trade deals. The UK has managed to agree a trade deal with Japan in an incredible short space of time and has rolled over about 70% (in terms of volume) of the EU trade deals already in place. With an Australian trade deal on the horizon, and rollover arrangements with Turkey and EEA to also be arranged soon it seems that it only takes long to negotiate a trade deal if the EU is involved! I'm still sceptical too, the number of recent U-turns doesn't fill me with confidence either. I am however glad the Internal Market Bill passed last night. Whatever one thinks of it, its clear the UK has finally done something that has made the EU sit up and take notice. For far too long the EU has had everything their own way in the negotiations, for the most part because the UK Parliament was batting for the other team!

"we were also told how long it takes to negotiate trade deals." It is only a little over 4 years since the referendum

"UK has rolled over about 70% (in terms of volume) of the EU trade deals already in place" That 70% is around 28% of total UK trade. Half of UK trade
is with the EU where a deal is currently not looking likely.

Japan trade deal is UK's first post-Brexit agreement, looking forward to all those trade agreements with new countries we were promised.
Trade with Japan accounts for just 2% of the UK's total so we only need another 14 such trade agreements to replace the EU business.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	marton
	"we were also told how long it takes to negotiate trade deals." It is only a little over 4 years since the referendum "UK has rolled over about 70% (in terms of volume) of the EU trade deals already in place" That 70% is around 28% of total UK trade. Half of UK trade is with the EU where a deal is currently not looking likely. Japan trade deal is UK's first post-Brexit agreement, looking forward to all those trade agreements with new countries we were promised. Trade with Japan accounts for just 2% of the UK's total so we only need another 14 such trade agreements to replace the EU business.

But Theresa spent 3 of those years doing god knows what.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Finally a decent trade deal. They seem to be keeping quiet about the freedom of movement part that allows the Japanese to easily come here and work.

Your profile still says you are in Kt Zürich?

[marton]

Joe Biden latest Democrat to warn UK over breaking Brexit deal
‘Any trade deal between the US and UK must be contingent upon respect’ for the Good Friday Agreement, Democratic presidential candidate says.

[aSwissInTheUS]

	Quote:	amogles
	Quote: marton Finally a decent trade deal. They seem to be keeping quiet about the freedom of movement part that allows the Japanese to easily come here and work. Your profile still says you are in Kt Zürich?

Yes, it does why?

Here == Switzerland.
They == SVP
Freedom of Movment Part == Treaty between the Swiss Confederation with His Majesty the Emperor of Japan from 1911?
https://www.admin.ch/opc/de/classifi...017/index.html

Why it is mentioned on a Brexit thread and not on the other thread about the upcoming popular vote is beyond my knowledge and mental capability. Sorry.