The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	JackieH
	No, that is clear. This is just how ERG have highjacked it- and they know it. Even Rees Mogg said they would lose significantly if it went to the vote now.

Would JRM be right? Just like the election & BREXIT, guessing the outcome does not help much. BIDEN's landslide never materialised either.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	JackieH
	No, that is clear. This is just how ERG have highjacked it- and they know it. Even Rees Mogg said they would lose significantly if it went to the vote now.

Where's your evidence of this? If the ERG had hijacked the process then talks with the EU would have ended long ago.

There have been four votes on Brexit, directly or indirectly (2015 election, 16 referendum, 2017 election, 2019 election). I'm fairly certain there is nothing more to discuss.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	The US is already the UK's biggest single trading partner with a larger volume of trade between the two countries than any single EU country. The lack of a trade deal hasn't prevented this from happening. If Joe Biden decides to try and reverse everything that Donald Trump has done (although this will be difficult without a Senate majority) there could even be a way for a trade deal between the US and UK through the TPP back door.

Clearly, the failure to achieve a free trade deal with the US would be a major lost opportunity, if the US succeeds in their ambition to have a free trade deal with the EU then that will drain business from the UK.

As you well know, the EU is the UK's biggest single trading partner.

Comparing trade with single EU countries has two flaws, firstly if you want to approach it in this way then remember the US is a federation so you should compare with single States. Secondly, it is not possible for the UK to make deals with single EU countries so it is a meaningless comparison.

How can Biden use the TPP back door when the TPP was never ratified so does not exist?

	Quote:	marton
	How can Biden use the TPP back door when the TPP was never ratified so does not exist?

Plus last I checked the UK was not in the Pacific and was never part of the TPP.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	Plus last I checked the UK was not in the Pacific and was never part of the TPP.

It's the UKs stated aim to join this trade partnership. It will take some time though.

[roegner]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	It's the UKs stated aim to join this trade partnership. It will take some time though.

When was it they decided to leave the EU?

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	roegner
	When was it they decided to leave the EU?

The beauty of TPP (or CPTPP to use the correct acronym) is that it is purely focused on trade and not political integration. Rather like the EEC once upon a time.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	If Joe Biden decides to try and reverse everything that Donald Trump has done (although this will be difficult without a Senate majority) there could even be a way for a trade deal between the US and UK through the TPP back door.

Hilarious. You will not get a trade deal so long a Boris refuses to respect the GFA. An Irish American President, an Irish American chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, a Speaker of the House with a native Irish son-in-law and three Irish grandchildren plus 50M+ Irish American voters won’t agree.

The Tories will have to make a big climb down if they want to get the trade deals they promised and that means Boris is going to take the blame.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Hilarious. You will not get a trade deal so long a Boris refuses to respect the GFA. An Irish American President, an Irish American chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, a Speaker of the House with a native Irish son-in-law and three Irish grandchildren plus 50M+ Irish American voters won’t agree. The Tories will have to make a big climb down if they want to get the trade deals they promised and that means Boris is going to take the blame.

Let's wait and see shall we? I suspect a climb down of sorts on fishing, but this would be practical seeing as the UK don't have the means to take advantage of their re-found fish wealth in the short time. So I would expect some form of staged reduction in EU access to UK fishing stocks over the coming years.

The level playing field is what matters most in my view and if the UK can hold firm here and get a deal then this will be the biggest victory.

To repeat what I said before, the UK doesn't need a trade agreement with the US. The US is the single biggest foreign investor in the UK, and the UK is the single biggest foreign investor in the US WITHOUT an FTA. Trade in goods and services has been rocketing for years with no trade agreement in place.

Why does the UK need an agreement with the US? It would come with a high political cost, not least because as you say, the US is full of ignorant "Irish Americans" who have no clue about Irish-UK relations yet are opinionated all the same.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	The beauty of TPP (or CPTPP to use the correct acronym) is that it is purely focused on trade and not political integration. Rather like the EEC once upon a time.

You have not read it have you?
It provides recognition of inclusive values, including the importance of corporate social responsibility, environmental protection and enforcement, sustainable development, labour rights, cultural identity and diversity, and the elimination of bribery and corruption.

Anyway, neither UK nor US are members so it is all pie in the sky.

[JackieH]

Totally different situtaion re Trum and USA, and UK with Brexit.


Trump's voters were given what they wanted in many ways.


In the UK, huge swathes of the population now know they were lied to and conned. Those, particularly the elderly (now gone in their thousands too) who wanted more money for the NHS. The farmers who believed they would be better off when competition from EU was stopped, and now (surprise) realise they in fact export tons of their stuff to the EU- and also realise the standards they work so hard to achieve, at a large cost- will be destroyed by cheap and very poor quality imports from the US. All those in our few remaining industries who are losing their jobs and who see their factories close and move elsewhere with access to EU markets. The list is endless.


The thousands of the elderly who voted for Brexit and now gone, replaced by 1000s of young people who could not vote and are now ready to fight for their rights. With such a tiny weeny majority for Brexit, just the balance between the elderly now gone, and the young ones now of voting age- would tip the balance on its own.




The Financial sector is being decimated. Just the latest to go



https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/go...b&guccounter=1

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	JackieH
	Totally different situtaion re Trum and USA, and UK with Brexit. Trump's voters were given what they wanted in many ways. In the UK, huge swathes of the population now know they were lied to and conned. Those, particularly the elderly (now gone in their thousands too) who wanted more money for the NHS. The farmers who believed they would be better off when competition from EU was stopped, and now (surprise) realise they in fact export tons of their stuff to the EU- and also realise the standards they work so hard to achieve, at a large cost- will be destroyed by cheap and very poor quality imports from the US. All those in our few remaining industries who are losing their jobs and who see their factories close and move elsewhere with access to EU markets. The list is endless. The thousands of the elderly who voted for Brexit and now gone, replaced by 1000s of young people who could not vote and are now ready to fight for their rights. With such a tiny weeny majority for Brexit, just the balance between the elderly now gone, and the young ones now of voting age- would tip the balance on its own.

You appear to speak in hyperbole so I don't think it would be worthwhile replying to the more wild of your proclamations. The point remains that there were two democratic opportunities to prevent Brexit (the various court cases notwithstanding). The next opportunity to vote on reentering the EU will likely take place in 40 years, by which time the EU (any many of us!) most likely won't be around any longer!

[Harness]

	Quote:	JackieH
	The thousands of the elderly who voted for Brexit and now gone, replaced by 1000s of young people who could not vote and are now ready to fight for their rights. With such a tiny weeny majority for Brexit, just the balance between the elderly now gone, and the young ones now of voting age- would tip the balance on its own.

If your hypothesis is correct, whoever campaigns at the next election to rejoin the EU will win, if it's still a big topic.

However both Tory and labour support Brexit, which leaves the liberals to rise from the ashes.
It's not out of the question to rejoin, but I think it will be a couple, or more, terms off.

[JackieH]

It was a very different time then, just some months ago. Johnson promised a Deal, and there was no talk then of reneging on his signed and approved agreement, and on reneging on protecting agricultural standards, biosafety and husbandry. And he had a mate called Trump.


Hyperbole did you say- have you re- read your last post. It is biggly the best hyperbole seen in a while.


What a gorgeous day again- the woods call, sunshine and sanity. Ta.

[John William]

	Quote:	JackieH
	It was a very different time then, just some months ago. Johnson promised a Deal, and there was no talk then of reneging on his signed and approved agreement, and on reneging on protecting agricultural standards, biosafety and husbandry. And he had a mate called Trump. Hyperbole did you say- have you re- read your last post. It is biggly the best hyperbole seen in a while. What a gorgeous day again- the woods call, sunshine and sanity. Ta.

Will post-Brexit Britain be spared a bad 'America first' trade deal with the States that would have come
complete with Kentucky fried Chlorinated Chicken, under Biden ?

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Hilarious. You will not get a trade deal so long a Boris refuses to respect the GFA. An Irish American President, an Irish American chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, a Speaker of the House with a native Irish son-in-law and three Irish grandchildren plus 50M+ Irish American voters won’t agree. The Tories will have to make a big climb down if they want to get the trade deals they promised and that means Boris is going to take the blame.

That's the whole point though. The GFA will be respected in its entirety subject to a positive trade deal.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	JackieH
	Totally different situtaion re Trum and USA, and UK with Brexit. Trump's voters were given what they wanted in many ways. In the UK, huge swathes of the population now know they were lied to and conned. Those, particularly the elderly (now gone in their thousands too) who wanted more money for the NHS. The farmers who believed they would be better off when competition from EU was stopped, and now (surprise) realise they in fact export tons of their stuff to the EU- and also realise the standards they work so hard to achieve, at a large cost- will be destroyed by cheap and very poor quality imports from the US. All those in our few remaining industries who are losing their jobs and who see their factories close and move elsewhere with access to EU markets. The list is endless. The thousands of the elderly who voted for Brexit and now gone, replaced by 1000s of young people who could not vote and are now ready to fight for their rights. With such a tiny weeny majority for Brexit, just the balance between the elderly now gone, and the young ones now of voting age- would tip the balance on its own. The Financial sector is being decimated. Just the latest to go https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/go...b&guccounter=1

In the 1960s when you were a new voter I imagine there was the exact same message about the young people changing the agenda and the old folk dying off. Hows that going?

The demographic trends are actually helping the conservatives - the population is aging.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	You appear to speak in hyperbole so I don't think it would be worthwhile replying to the more wild of your proclamations. The point remains that there were two democratic opportunities to prevent Brexit (the various court cases notwithstanding). The next opportunity to vote on reentering the EU will likely take place in 40 years, by which time the EU (any many of us!) most likely won't be around any longer!

Demographics alone in NI indicates that the UK will not exist in 40 years time, it will have been dissolved in accordance the GFA.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	That's the whole point though. The GFA will be respected in its entirety subject to a positive trade deal.

Do you understand that will require the Tories to repeal the withdrawal bill? The Irish foreign minister has already say it is unacceptable to them.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Demographics alone in NI indicates that the UK will not exist in 40 years time, it will have been dissolved in accordance the GFA.

Is anyone actually bothered?