The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH - Page 1398

JackieH · #**27941** 28.10.2020, 17:59

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	The choice in 2016 was pretty unappealing both ways. Leave: A leap into the unknown with a near certainty of short term economic damage. Remain: Stay part of the sinking ship that is Europe. Accept very limited democracy.

Depends very much is one belives that Europe s a sinking ship. Currently there is only one, small and rather insignificant ship sinking- and that is the UK- either beholden and owned by Trump's USA, or up sh*t creek on WTO rules, having alienated all its close neighbours, having been shown to be totally lacking in principles and prepared to break intenrnation signed Treaties. And across water- thus totally at the mercy of those who may want to make life difficult - who happen to be those we sell most stuff too- fish and agriculture included. And cut aside from international supply chains for our few remaining, and foreign owned industries. And beholden to the foreign owners of all our main utilities, be it electriciy, gas, transport and even airports. I thought that since Raab realised the UK is an Island- most other people would have accepted this too.

HickvonFrick · #**27942** 28.10.2020, 18:19

	Quote:	JackieH
	Depends very much is one belives that Europe s a sinking ship. Currently there is only one, small and rather insignificant ship sinking- and that is the UK- either beholden and owned by Trump's USA, or up sh*t creek on WTO rules, having alienated all its close neighbours, having been shown to be totally lacking in principles and prepared to break intenrnation signed Treaties. And across water- thus totally at the mercy of those who may want to make life difficult - who happen to be those we sell most stuff too- fish and agriculture included. And cut aside from international supply chains for our few remaining, and foreign owned industries. And beholden to the foreign owners of all our main utilities, be it electriciy, gas, transport and even airports. I thought that since Raab realised the UK is an Island- most other people would have accepted this too.

Europe has endemic low growth, is heavily indebted and has an aged population with many countries having totally inadequate pension funding (France, Italy). I agree with you the UK has some unique medium-term challenges on top of the general poor situation in Europe caused by Brexit and its exposure to COVID. But I'd still rather be the UK than Italy, Greece, Spain or Portugal. We are still significantly more attractive to high quality immigrants than these places, who are basically basketcases kept afloat by low interest rates.

The best kids in Asia (I am married to one!) don't want to go to Europe - but to the US which is really where you can make it big. Here in Switzerland is attractive obviously, but its a niche. You mention Trump, but he will probably be gone in weeks, and in the worst case scenario a few years. He is not relevant in the timescales I am thinking about.

I acknowledge how rash my Brexit vote was given the total absence of a plan. Almost by definition. But there is a lot of remainer denial about the total mess that is Europe. I don't really want to be part of their ecosystem if becoming more integrated with the US is a possible alternative option. Long term the world is Asia, and its the US. As a continent we are not going anywhere. I'm pretty confident about that. At least I put my money where my mouth is. My investment portfolio has almost no Europe (inc. UK) exposure.

I think I am a few decades younger than you and perhaps that's reflected in the horizon I made my decision over. Incidentally I was already planning to emigrate in 2016 but to the US rather than here. Here worked out better as I would have to restart my career somewhat in the US.

JackieH · #**27943** 28.10.2020, 18:27

Sounds like you are the same age as my kids and their friends in the UK. All of them are planning to emigrate, but none of them are interested in Trump's USA, at all. When Trump is gone, and depending on who is in charge- they might change their mind. Fortunately my lot have Swiss passports and access to Irish- and excellent language skills on top of their great caeers, so they will have the choice.

fatmanfilms · #**27944** 28.10.2020, 18:29

	Quote:	JackieH
	Depends very much is one belives that Europe s a sinking ship. Currently there is only one, small and rather insignificant ship sinking- and that is the UK- either beholden and owned by Trump's USA, or up sh*t creek on WTO rules, having alienated all its close neighbours, having been shown to be totally lacking in principles and prepared to break intenrnation signed Treaties. And across water- thus totally at the mercy of those who may want to make life difficult - who happen to be those we sell most stuff too- fish and agriculture included. And cut aside from international supply chains for our few remaining, and foreign owned industries. And beholden to the foreign owners of all our main utilities, be it electriciy, gas, transport and even airports. I thought that since Raab realised the UK is an Island- most other people would have accepted this too.

Thats incorrect, the EU's growth has been the lowest of any continent since 2000, ok excluding Antartica. Thats 20 years wasted.

JackieH · #**27945** 28.10.2020, 18:32

Which bit of my post is incorrect? And you have a foot in two EU countries, France and Malta- why are you even there then?

fatmanfilms · #**27946** 28.10.2020, 18:39

	Quote:	JackieH
	Which bit of my post is incorrect? And you have a foot in two EU countries, France and Malta- why are you even there then?

Europe is a sinking ship, totally naive of the EU to believe a common currency could ever be a 'good' thing.

I am not looking for a career in either of them, I don't invest in either country, although a fund I own does own some L'Oréal shares. (Fund manager lives in Mauritius)
I like the mountains of 1 & the tax efficiency of the other. Not spent 1 night in the UK this year, just 2 day trips, my longest time without being in the UK was over 1200 days.

HickvonFrick · #**27947** 28.10.2020, 18:45

	Quote:	JackieH
	Sounds like you are the same age as my kids and their friends in the UK. All of them are planning to emigrate, but none of them are interested in Trump's USA, at all. When Trump is gone, and depending on who is in charge- they might change their mind. Fortunately my lot have Swiss passports and access to Irish- and excellent language skills on top of their great caeers, so they will have the choice.

I'm 32

I'd advise anyone my age or younger not to make decisions on a short term basis like Trump - who knows when and where the next loud mouthed bigot will pop up (look at Brazil), but on long term structural factors. Trump is obnoxious and a fool, but he hasn't really changed anything hugely. Just lowered the tone of political discourse really.

On a personal note - I plan to retire to Asia when I am FMF's age, but that could change with time. Doubt I will ever live in the US - which was always an ambition. I might try and encourage my kids too

JackieH · #**27948** 28.10.2020, 18:49

lol, a baby, my kids are in the mid to late 40s. Horses for courses. They would love to live in Berlin, Paris, Milan - but not most of the USA.

FMF, I never said the EU was or wasn't a sinking ship- but that it is a question of perception depending on one's principles and priorities in life.

JackieH · #**27949** 06.11.2020, 21:54

So, what now? Johnson has totally aleniated the EU, lying, signing an agreement which hw knew to be much worse than Mrs May's, knowing he had no intention whatsover of honouring it, or negotiate in earnest- break international law and just waste time until his bezzie mate Trump got in again and he could jump on his bandwagon. With a deal that would screw our agriculture, financial services, be the last straw for our few remaining industries, and worse.

And now ? What then. He has gambled all the cards, forgotten to switch the oven on and the turkey has gone rotten ... bravo!

marton · #**27950** 06.11.2020, 22:08

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Europe is a sinking ship, totally naive of the EU to believe a common currency could ever be a 'good' thing. I am not looking for a career in either of them, I don't invest in either country, although a fund I own does own some L'Oréal shares. (Fund manager lives in Mauritius) I like the mountains of 1 & the tax efficiency of the other. Not spent 1 night in the UK this year, just 2 day trips, my longest time without being in the UK was over 1200 days.

Common currency works OK for the US and Swiss federations?

fatmanfilms · #**27951** 06.11.2020, 22:15

	Quote:	marton
	Common currency works OK for the US and Swiss federations?

Not sure it really works over the entire USA, perhaps you never noticed how some areas are doing better than others. With CH it's a small area with a handful of people, quite amusing you yous compare a country with 330 million people v a country with under 9 million.

JackieH · #**27952** 06.11.2020, 22:21

Groan and groan see if I care- and I can't be asked to respond with same as so infantile.

But could you put forward real solutions to the points made? Lost the EU, and will not get Trump's deal either- so where, what?

The EU holds every single card, and know they cannot trust Johnson and ERG. And no Trump - and Biden will not play his dirty game. So?

fatmanfilms · #**27953** 06.11.2020, 22:26

	Quote:	JackieH
	The EU holds every single card, and know they cannot trust Johnson and ERG. And no Trump - and Biden will not play his dirty game. So?

The Eu does not hold every single card, UK has done it's first fishing deal in 40 years. Germany will have an issue as the UK is a very big purchaser of cars, we buy a lot of Spanish oranges before the EU they came from Florida. I suspect the EU will cave in, time will tell happy to eat my popcorn watching.

JackieH · #**27954** 06.11.2020, 22:42

Let's wait indeed - the information I have got, from a very knowledgeable source, is that Johnson will soon be eating very humble pie, not popcorn.

HickvonFrick · #**27955** 06.11.2020, 22:46

	Quote:	JackieH
	Let's wait indeed - the information I have got, from a very knowledgeable source, is that Johnson will soon be eating very humble pie, not popcorn.

How? He's definitely serious about walking if they offer crap. I'm pretty sure the EU know that too. At the end of the day a compromise will be found that neither side will be 100% happy with and both will claim victory.

JackieH · #**27956** 06.11.2020, 22:55

He was serious- as he believed he could jump in with Trump - at the cost of our agriculture and standards, NHS, industry and so much more. But this option has all but gone- Hence my question? Where to now?

Anyone?

HickvonFrick · #**27957** 07.11.2020, 00:21

	Quote:	JackieH
	He was serious- as he believed he could jump in with Trump - at the cost of our agriculture and standards, NHS, industry and so much more. But this option has all but gone- Hence my question? Where to now? Anyone?

Why can't we still do a deal with the US? We wanted that option despite Trump not because of him. There's absolutely no love for trump in the Conservative party. The divide ideologically is big. The UK Conservative party aren't hyper socially conservative and borderline fascistic.

Biden will presumably demand NI is sorted as a precondition, but once that's sorted in it's the US interest to do a deal.

JackieH · #**27958** 07.11.2020, 00:47

Possible indeed- but a very different deal. Biden however is a Europhile- and is more likely to want to do a Deal with the EU, than the UK.

marton · #**27959** 07.11.2020, 01:05

	Quote:	JackieH
	Possible indeed- but a very different deal. Biden however is a Europhile- and is more likely to want to do a Deal with the EU, than the UK.

Contrary to Trump who was anti-EU and claimed to want a quick deal with Boris

Jim2007 · #**27960** 07.11.2020, 05:00

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	Biden will presumably demand NI is sorted as a precondition, but once that's sorted in it's the US interest to do a deal.

But is not up to Biden, just as it was not up to Trump. Although having both the President and the Speaker on side will make it easier. In the States they say all politics are local, well Nancy Pelosi has a native Irish son-in-law and three Irish grand kids from Co. Wicklow. And she has made it very clear what the requirements are for congress to approve a trade deal.

Part of the problem is that Boris and friends do not understand how the game is played. Irish Americans see the Good Friday as THEIR solution to the Irish problem and no US politician, Republicans or Democrats, will be willing to stick their fingers in that one if they are dependent on Irish American voters.