The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	However the most likely scenario is that rather than causing harm to BOTH economies, they'd hastily negotiate a new trade deal as it would be the most sensible thing to do.

Obviously not; if that was the case the EU would have given way on the FMOP point already.

So you believe that as soon as UK leaves the EU will forget about FMOP, come on!

There have been suggestions that UK should join EFTA but I doubt they would allow a new member to join without also joining the European Economic Area (EEA) which has pretty much the same clauses (like FMOP) that UK objects to.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Obviously not; if that was the case the EU would have given way on the FMOP point already. So you believe that as soon as UK leaves the EU will forget about FMOP, come on! There have been suggestions that UK should join EFTA but I doubt they would allow a new member to join without also joining the European Economic Area (EEA) which has pretty much the same clauses (like FMOP) that UK objects to.

Well, they have admitted being tough on CH in order not to create a precedent for the UK, so it is a will not rather than a can not problem. The question is how long Merkel can avoid a rebellion within her own government. Maybe her successor will be more magnanimous and less of an all or nothing type.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	Well, they have admitted being tough on CH in order not to create a precedent for the UK, so it is a will not rather than a can not problem. The question is how long Merkel can avoid a rebellion within her own government. Maybe her successor will be more magnanimous and less of an all or nothing type.

Well it would be very nice were it so.
But
just look at the trade agreements being signed around the world today; no big customer is going to sign up without taking a chunk out of the sellers sovereignty - sad but it is so.

Added to the problem is what exactly has the UK to offer that is a "unique selling point"? Most of the super "brands" like, for example, Rolls Royce and Bentley are long gone.
What are people going to be knocking on UK's door and begging for?
Certainly not steel, coal or gas!

Here is a list of the top ten exports; which of these could not be quickly replaced by any one of a dozen countries?

Machines, engines, pumps: US$63.9 billion (13.9% of total exports)
Gems, precious metals: $53 billion (11.5%)
Vehicles: $50.7 billion (11%)
Pharmaceuticals: $36 billion (7.8%)
Oil: $33.2 billion (7.2%)
Electronic equipment: $29 billion (6.3%)
Aircraft, spacecraft: $18.9 billion (4.1%)
Medical, technical equipment: $18.4 billion (4%)
Organic chemicals: $14 billion (3%)
Plastics: $11.8 billion (2.6%)

Sorry! In principle I support Brexit but in reality it will turn the UK into a failed economy.

It is claimed that half a million problem families (UK underclass) cost the taxpayer £30 BILLION every year; they will be the first to suffer when the money tap is no longer connected to a money tank.

Good luck if Brexit is voted in; thank God I am in Switzerland !

[marv]

I know all we can do is speculate at this time but does anyone know how it will likely affect renewal of my B permit? I am on a 5 year permit which is due for renewal in 2019 as a British Citizen. If we leave the EU I am worried I might not get automatic renewal. Do you think that those already 'in the system' will carry on that way?
I love Switzerland and would hate to have to move back to the UK over this!
Thanks to you all in advance!

[Island Monkey]

	Quote:	marv
	I know all we can do is speculate at this time but does anyone know how it will likely affect renewal of my B permit? I am on a 5 year permit which is due for renewal in 2019 as a British Citizen. If we leave the EU I am worried I might not get automatic renewal. Do you think that those already 'in the system' will carry on that way? I love Switzerland and would hate to have to move back to the UK over this! Thanks to you all in advance!

Well the Swiss aren't in the EU and a Swiss person can go and live and work in the UK with no permit at all... so I'd think they will probably just have an agreement between the two countries. Otherwise the UK might turn around and say no to the Swiss.

[marv]

	Quote:	Island Monkey
	Well the Swiss aren't in the EU and a Swiss person can go and live and work in the UK with no permit at all... so I'd think they will probably just have an agreement between the two countries. Otherwise the UK might turn around and say no to the Swiss.

You make a good point - I hope you are right. Thanks for the reply. Fingers crossed...
Anyone else have any thoughts on the matter?
Marv.

[marton]

	Quote:	Island Monkey
	Well the Swiss aren't in the EU and a Swiss person can go and live and work in the UK with no permit at all... so I'd think they will probably just have an agreement between the two countries. Otherwise the UK might turn around and say no to the Swiss.

That is due to the bilateral treaties between Switzerland and the EU; will not be valid for Britain after Brexit.

[marv]

	Quote:	marton
	That is due to the bilateral treaties between Switzerland and the EU; will not be valid for Britain after Brexit.

I suppose we can only hope that Britain and Switzerland want to make an agreement or negotiate it as part of the exit agreement through the EU.

	Quote:	Island Monkey
	Well the Swiss aren't in the EU and a Swiss person can go and live and work in the UK with no permit at all... so I'd think they will probably just have an agreement between the two countries. Otherwise the UK might turn around and say no to the Swiss.

Most of you are too young to remember the days when this was not the case. I certainly had to have a work permit to go and work in the UK in 1970. It was almost impossible to obtain in those days- I was VERY lucky I knew the right people, had the right contacts, etc - as the firm had to make the application for me and make a strong case for employing me, rather than a UK national. If the vote passes tomorrow in CH, and if BREXIT goes through- we may well revert to this scenario. No studying in each other's country and very restrictive work permit in exceptional cases.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	That is due to the bilateral treaties between Switzerland and the EU; will not be valid for Britain after Brexit.

The bilaterals with EU are on course to be cancelled with EU unlikely to renew due to FMOP. Brexit will allow UK to negotiate a separate treaty with immigration restrictions that both sides want so probably better with brexit.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	The bilaterals with EU are on course to be cancelled with EU unlikely to renew due to FMOP. Brexit will allow UK to negotiate a separate treaty with immigration restrictions that both sides want so probably better with brexit.

The EU already denied a change in FMOP for UK so what grounds do you have to believe they will "negotiate a separate treaty with immigration restrictions" and why do you state "both sides want"?
The EU has never shown any interest in immigration restrictions?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	Most of the super "brands" like, for example, Rolls Royce and Bentley are long gone.

My mate's a prototype buyer at Bentley's Crewe plant.

http://www.bentleymotors.com/en/worl...xperience.html

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	The bilaterals with EU are on course to be cancelled with EU unlikely to renew due to FMOP. Brexit will allow UK to negotiate a separate treaty with immigration restrictions that both sides want so probably better with brexit.

Can't remember if I heard on 'Question Time' or 'This Week', but someone said it would take about 6yrs to negotiate all the treaties that the UK would have to set up to replace the EU ones.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	The EU already denied a change in FMOP for UK so what grounds do you have to believe they will "negotiate a separate treaty with immigration restrictions" and why do you state "both sides want"? The EU has never shown any interest in immigration restrictions?

My post was in reply to the guy worried about renewing permit with Switzerland. Which will rely on the treaty to be negotiated between UK/Switzerland.

As you mention, EU unlikely to budge on FMOP so bilaterals with Switzerland will be dead based on the already voted on referendum.

So for his permit renewal case, brexit could be better since there is more chance of a UK/CH treaty than an EU/CH one.

(both sides want as in both UK and CH)

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	The elephant in the room is the single common market with common standards. If Britain votes to leave then it will be very hard plus take a very long time to find a decent replacement trading deal for our exports.

Unless they don't leave the single market in which case they don't need to do anything at all.

If they do leave the single market, then they would negotiate such treaties in advance of leaving.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	Added to the problem is what exactly has the UK to offer that is a "unique selling point"? Most of the super "brands" like, for example, Rolls Royce and Bentley are long gone. Here is a list of the top ten exports; which of these could not be quickly replaced by any one of a dozen countries?

Firstly, Rolls Royce is NOT long gone!

Then you talk about USP and replacement.

The fact that we export all the items you list shows that somebody wants them and even if we leave the single market, it doesn't mean that they will stop wanting those items from the UK.

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	My mate's a prototype buyer at Bentley's Crewe plant. http://www.bentleymotors.com/en/worl...xperience.html Can't remember if I heard on 'Question Time' or 'This Week', but someone said it would take about 6yrs to negotiate all the treaties that the UK would have to set up to replace the EU ones.

Bentley is owned by VW and Rolls-Royce Motors by BMW; let us hope that after Brexit they both continue UK manufacture! Some Bentley production is already in mainland Europe.

Rolls-Royce holdings (mainly aircraft) is UK owned (including the rights to the Rolls-Royce name).

"take about 6yrs to negotiate all the treaties" Sounds about right looking at the time taken to negotiate other similar deals.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	Unless they don't leave the single market in which case they don't need to do anything at all. If they do leave the single market, then they would negotiate such treaties in advance of leaving.

Well of course both UK and CH want to stay in the single market but without such inconvenient things as FMOP.
After Brexit do you really believe the EU would allow UK to stay as a simple trading partner without conforming to the basic EU requirements?
So far EU has refused to negotiate on this point.

[Belgianmum]

http://deredactie.be/cm/vrtnieuws.en...News/1.2584139

Belgian prime minister has his say.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	After Brexit do you really believe the EU would allow UK to stay as a simple trading partner without conforming to the basic EU requirements? So far EU has refused to negotiate on this point.

It depends what you mean by 'simple trading partner' and 'basic EU requirements'.

If you mean things like safety regulations etc. then of course, these need to be complied with.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	Belgianmum
	http://deredactie.be/cm/vrtnieuws.en...News/1.2584139 Belgian prime minister has his say.

"Charles Michel, who we learn regularly texts the British PM David Cameron, says that a 'Leave' vote will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty that requires the UK to exit the organisation within two years. The Times writes that the article is deliberately designed to be punitive to discourage countries from leaving.

During the talks that led to Britain's new EU deal Mr Michel also warned that promises of treaty change e.g. to secure a UK opt-out from ever closer union and safeguards for the City of London, Britain's financial industry, were not irreversible as future treaty change would require the approval of national and even regional parliaments. Belgium has a total of six parliaments and The Times writes that Belgium's Walloon region has vowed to block a British opt-out from 'ever closer union'."

In other words, they knew long ago that the whole idea was likely to fail so took punitive action to make sure everyone stayed no matter what.

And so much for what Cameron negotiated being legal - if Belgium can veto it, it ain't legally binding.

Punivite measures or not - time for the UK to exit definitely. Before the whole thing goes down the swannie.