The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Always good to start the day with a good laugh. BREXIT amnesia: it was never about trade deals, it was never about border control, it was never about... it was never about... next you’ll tell us it was all about fishing rights and blue passports.

It is about trade deals, but no one voted for Brexit to get a trade deal specifically with the US

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	It is about trade deals, but no one voted for Brexit to get a trade deal specifically with the US

So no trade deal with the UK's biggest trade partner, the EU accounting for about 48% of all trade. Now no deal with the second largest, the USA, accounting for 15% of all trade. Already not so much left to fill the gaps, is there.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	So no trade deal with the UK's biggest trade partner, the EU accounting for about 48% of all trade. Now no deal with the second largest, the USA, accounting for 15% of all trade. Already not so much left to fill the gaps, is there.

We don't need a deal, deals are tax avoidance, amazed you are in favour

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	We don't need a deal, deals are tax avoidance, amazed you are in favour

Where did I write that I was or wasn't? Clifton write "It is about trade deals"

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Where did I write that I was or wasn't? Clifton write "It is about trade deals"

	Quote:
	So no trade deal with the UK's biggest trade partner, the EU accounting for about 48% of all trade. Now no deal with the second largest, the USA, accounting for 15% of all trade. Already not so much left to fill the gaps, is there.

I thought you were saying no deal was a bad thing?

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	So no trade deal with the UK's biggest trade partner, the EU accounting for about 48% of all trade. Now no deal with the second largest, the USA, accounting for 15% of all trade. Already not so much left to fill the gaps, is there.

The US is already the UK's biggest single trading partner with a larger volume of trade between the two countries than any single EU country. The lack of a trade deal hasn't prevented this from happening.

If Joe Biden decides to try and reverse everything that Donald Trump has done (although this will be difficult without a Senate majority) there could even be a way for a trade deal between the US and UK through the TPP back door.

[greenmount]

	Quote:
	So no trade deal with the UK's biggest trade partner, the EU accounting for about 48% of all trade. Now no deal with the second largest, the USA, accounting for 15% of all trade. Already not so much left to fill the gaps, is there.

China?

	Quote:	greenmount
	China?

Number 5 with about 5% of total trade. China only do trade deals that suit China.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Number 5 with about 5% of total trade. China only do trade deals that suit China.

Everybody only does trade deals that suits them, hence Boris walking away from the table.

[JackieH]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	It is about trade deals, but no one voted for Brexit to get a trade deal specifically with the US

No, that is clear. This is just how ERG have highjacked it- and they know it. Even Rees Mogg said they would lose significantly if it went to the vote now.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	JackieH
	No, that is clear. This is just how ERG have highjacked it- and they know it. Even Rees Mogg said they would lose significantly if it went to the vote now.

Would JRM be right? Just like the election & BREXIT, guessing the outcome does not help much. BIDEN's landslide never materialised either.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	JackieH
	No, that is clear. This is just how ERG have highjacked it- and they know it. Even Rees Mogg said they would lose significantly if it went to the vote now.

Where's your evidence of this? If the ERG had hijacked the process then talks with the EU would have ended long ago.

There have been four votes on Brexit, directly or indirectly (2015 election, 16 referendum, 2017 election, 2019 election). I'm fairly certain there is nothing more to discuss.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	The US is already the UK's biggest single trading partner with a larger volume of trade between the two countries than any single EU country. The lack of a trade deal hasn't prevented this from happening. If Joe Biden decides to try and reverse everything that Donald Trump has done (although this will be difficult without a Senate majority) there could even be a way for a trade deal between the US and UK through the TPP back door.

Clearly, the failure to achieve a free trade deal with the US would be a major lost opportunity, if the US succeeds in their ambition to have a free trade deal with the EU then that will drain business from the UK.

As you well know, the EU is the UK's biggest single trading partner.

Comparing trade with single EU countries has two flaws, firstly if you want to approach it in this way then remember the US is a federation so you should compare with single States. Secondly, it is not possible for the UK to make deals with single EU countries so it is a meaningless comparison.

How can Biden use the TPP back door when the TPP was never ratified so does not exist?

	Quote:	marton
	How can Biden use the TPP back door when the TPP was never ratified so does not exist?

Plus last I checked the UK was not in the Pacific and was never part of the TPP.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	Plus last I checked the UK was not in the Pacific and was never part of the TPP.

It's the UKs stated aim to join this trade partnership. It will take some time though.

[roegner]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	It's the UKs stated aim to join this trade partnership. It will take some time though.

When was it they decided to leave the EU?

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	roegner
	When was it they decided to leave the EU?

The beauty of TPP (or CPTPP to use the correct acronym) is that it is purely focused on trade and not political integration. Rather like the EEC once upon a time.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	If Joe Biden decides to try and reverse everything that Donald Trump has done (although this will be difficult without a Senate majority) there could even be a way for a trade deal between the US and UK through the TPP back door.

Hilarious. You will not get a trade deal so long a Boris refuses to respect the GFA. An Irish American President, an Irish American chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, a Speaker of the House with a native Irish son-in-law and three Irish grandchildren plus 50M+ Irish American voters won’t agree.

The Tories will have to make a big climb down if they want to get the trade deals they promised and that means Boris is going to take the blame.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Hilarious. You will not get a trade deal so long a Boris refuses to respect the GFA. An Irish American President, an Irish American chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, a Speaker of the House with a native Irish son-in-law and three Irish grandchildren plus 50M+ Irish American voters won’t agree. The Tories will have to make a big climb down if they want to get the trade deals they promised and that means Boris is going to take the blame.

Let's wait and see shall we? I suspect a climb down of sorts on fishing, but this would be practical seeing as the UK don't have the means to take advantage of their re-found fish wealth in the short time. So I would expect some form of staged reduction in EU access to UK fishing stocks over the coming years.

The level playing field is what matters most in my view and if the UK can hold firm here and get a deal then this will be the biggest victory.

To repeat what I said before, the UK doesn't need a trade agreement with the US. The US is the single biggest foreign investor in the UK, and the UK is the single biggest foreign investor in the US WITHOUT an FTA. Trade in goods and services has been rocketing for years with no trade agreement in place.

Why does the UK need an agreement with the US? It would come with a high political cost, not least because as you say, the US is full of ignorant "Irish Americans" who have no clue about Irish-UK relations yet are opinionated all the same.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	The beauty of TPP (or CPTPP to use the correct acronym) is that it is purely focused on trade and not political integration. Rather like the EEC once upon a time.

You have not read it have you?
It provides recognition of inclusive values, including the importance of corporate social responsibility, environmental protection and enforcement, sustainable development, labour rights, cultural identity and diversity, and the elimination of bribery and corruption.

Anyway, neither UK nor US are members so it is all pie in the sky.