The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	It just demonstrates how in experienced the entire team are. They keep boxing themselves in to a corner and don’t seem to learn from their mistakes. They keep drawing red lines that they are forced to ignore and have now talked themselves in to a situation where it’s either a big clime down, a poor deal or no deal. They have gone from great deals to talking about survival for heaven’s sake. Just a big joke now. You just don’t get it. We do about the same trade with Belgium as the UK, the new RoRos, the French port upgrades and the national grid hook up to France, makes us more independent than before. There is every chance we’ll get a united Ireland much earlier than expected... note there is a new phrase in the DUP vocabulary - all island solutions. We’ll take a hit, but have reduced national debt from 124% to 58%, being a net exporter for over thirty years and having lots of allies, we’re in good shape to take a it. Why is it that BREXITEERS always think that they are the only ones will to but principles ahead of economics? another big mistake. So, no deal with the EU, no deal with the US, Canada/Japan deals depend on EU deal, no support to adjust WTO trade schedules and bonus - an additional 27 objectors.... Like I said just a joke now.

You should rather listen to what your foreign minister Simon Coveney has said about what a no deal Brexit really means for Ireland. What you’ve described is a long way off what he is saying. Ireland is about to be part of a trading part of a free trade bloc that it could only reach by sea or air.

[newtoswitz]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	You should rather listen to what your foreign minister Simon Coveney has said about what a no deal Brexit really means for Ireland. What you’ve described is a long way off what he is saying. Ireland is about to be part of a trading part of a free trade bloc that it could only reach by sea or air.

While this is true, I don't think Northern Ireland is much of a trading partner, and beyond that the links are still be sea and air at present.

The big difference is that direct Ireland - EU links don't really exist, the shortest route was via the UK, even with a two ferries or a ferry and the tunnel.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	newtoswitz
	While this is true, I don't think Northern Ireland is much of a trading partner, and beyond that the links are still be sea and air at present. The big difference is that direct Ireland - EU links don't really exist, the shortest route was via the UK, even with a two ferries or a ferry and the tunnel.

The point is that in many different ways, Ireland is more exposed to a no deal Brexit than the likes of France or Germany by several factors. This is the fundamental problem of the EU, they negotiate as a 27-member team, whilst they will have listened to Irish concerns, there are also 27 national objectives to consider, not all of which are aligned to Ireland.

Boris Johnson was able to talk bilaterally with Leo Varadkar a little over a year ago in order to the Withdrawal Agreement over the line, when he tried the same thing again the move was rejected.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	The point is that in many different ways, Ireland is more exposed to a no deal Brexit than the likes of France or Germany by several factors. This is the fundamental problem of the EU, they negotiate as a 27-member team, whilst they will have listened to Irish concerns, there are also 27 national objectives to consider, not all of which are aligned to Ireland. Boris Johnson was able to talk bilaterally with Leo Varadkar a little over a year ago in order to the Withdrawal Agreement over the line, when he tried the same thing again the move was rejected.

To be fair - at the time that was significantly due to the Irish border issue, which although of interest to the EU, is clearly of special importance to the Republic of Ireland.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	To be fair - at the time that was significantly due to the Irish border issue, which although of interest to the EU, is clearly of special importance to the Republic of Ireland.

It is a similar story in that Boris Johnson has been trying to contact those countries most exposed to a no deal Brexit. Whilst they're not receiving his calls there are reports that the Taoiseach is in contact with him by text message. Almost farcical!

At least it sounds like both sides are coming together for a deal to be agreed later on this week. If only Brexit had just meant signing up to the EFTA (my preferred option) then all of this could have been avoided.

[Talk to you later]

A dumb question maybe regarding British territorial waters, why does EU think they have right to fish there? Why not just buy the fish from UK if they want it so badly? Another option, UK rents them some fishing quota for cash?

[JackieH]

why do you think the British fleet fishes mostly in EU and non EU waters- and massively around Iceland?

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	JackieH
	why do you think the British fleet fishes mostly in EU and non EU waters- and massively around Iceland?

This isn't true.

https://marinedevelopments.blog.gov....tics-2017-eez/

[Talk to you later]

	Quote:	JackieH
	why do you think the British fleet fishes mostly in EU and non EU waters- and massively around Iceland?

I don't know but my solution would apply in the other direction too. EU's territorial water should not be free for us either. Internation waters obviously would be free for all (well apart from the fact that overfishing is decimating marine life).

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	JackieH
	why do you think the British fleet fishes mostly in EU and non EU waters- and massively around Iceland?

At a guess, partially because the type of fish they specialise in catching lives there and partially because so much of the UK waters are given over to others for fishing.

Ultimately, fishing is not a serious issue. For the life of me, I can't understand why the solution is not that each country has its own waters that it is free to sell access too as it sees fit. I'm sure there's permits that UK would buy from Iceland, Norway et al, and those that we'd sell to others too.

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	JackieH
	why do you think the British fleet fishes mostly in EU and non EU waters- and massively around Iceland?

They don't.

Tom

[Island Monkey]

EU have listed the UK for pet travel (list 2) http://apha.defra.gov.uk/documents/o...-Note-3920.pdf

I believe this means, UK dogs need a health certificate, and EU/CH dogs can travel as they do now. No titre tests required!!

[HickvonFrick]

So Barnier has said that "if the UK compromise on fish", there will be a deal.

Given that fish is a ludicrously small industry (several times smaller than Games workshop - who make Warhammer toys) - it would be ridiculous for talks to now fail.

Subject to the above proceeding as I suspect, are we going to see any contrition from JackieH, who said something along the lines of "the ERG put Boris in to get no deal", and said that I was "naive" for arguing otherwise - despite being on close terms to 4 or 5 members of that group and having previously stood for the Conservative Party, been the chairman for a cabinet minster etc. etc.

(Jackie - if you are reading I think you are awesome - just that you are wrong about the above!)

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	So Barnier has said that "if the UK compromise on fish", there will be a deal. Given that fish is a ludicrously small industry (several times smaller than Games workshop - who make Warhammer toys) - it would be ridiculous for talks to now fail. Subject to the above proceeding as I suspect, are we going to see any contrition from JackieH, who said something along the lines of "the ERG put Boris in to get no deal", and said that I was "naive" for arguing otherwise - despite being on close terms to 4 or 5 members of that group and having previously stood for the Conservative Party, been the chairman for a cabinet minster etc. etc. (Jackie - if you are reading I think you are awesome - just that you are wrong about the above!)

You are right however problem with fishing is that it is such a politically charged issue. The SNP are just waiting to pounce if fishing is sold out as fishing is one of the big Brexit benefits for Scotland. It also sends out the wrong message if, for example, it looks as if the UK is selling out fishing for big corporations or banks in London.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	You are right however problem with fishing is that it is such a politically charged issue. The SNP are just waiting to pounce if fishing is sold out as fishing is one of the big Brexit benefits for Scotland. It also sends out the wrong message if, for example, it looks as if the UK is selling out fishing for big corporations or banks in London.

Surely the answer is increased % share for the UK (and increasing over time), but some for the EU still so everyone can claim a victory. Nobody cares about the actual economics of the matter.

Alternatively, the UK could pay foreign fishermen off.

Whatever the result - both the UK and EU are far too serious to let something like fish get in the way of a mutually beneficial arrangement.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	Surely the answer is increased % share for the UK (and increasing over time), but some for the EU still so everyone can claim a victory. Nobody cares about the actual economics of the matter. Alternatively, the UK could pay foreign fishermen off. Whatever the result - both the UK and EU are far too serious to let something like fish get in the way of a mutually beneficial arrangement.

I think the phased approach is best, in the beginning the UK hasn't the infrastructure to benefit from the re-found fish wealth, whilst at the same time, one day will need to have a market for all that fish!

[nickatbasel]

The UK arts industry is worth more than the fishing industry. If ballerinas can be encouraged to go into "Cyber", why not trawlermen?

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-54553828

[marton]

	Quote:	Talk to you later
	A dumb question maybe regarding British territorial waters, why does EU think they have right to fish there? Why not just buy the fish from UK if they want it so badly? Another option, UK rents them some fishing quota for cash?

Before Brexit, they were EU territorial waters.

[Talk to you later]

	Quote:	marton
	Before Brexit, they were EU territorial waters.

Yes, but Brexit has happened/is happening, so they should be British territorial waters once again.

[Harness]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I think the phased approach is best, in the beginning the UK hasn't the infrastructure to benefit from the re-found fish wealth, whilst at the same time, one day will need to have a market for all that fish!

Exactly, run it down over 10 years.