The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[JagWaugh]

Zurirollt,


It does work as a .pdf (but the reply quote is broken)


Once I read "What it could mean" I knew that it wasn't concrete information. Have I been away from Canada for so long that I no longer understand English?

[idefix]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	He's just banned any commissioners having any informal discussions before the trigger is pulled Article 50. Which everyone is going to ignore.

Actually Merkel, Oland and Renzi have refused any informal talks before A50... No way back I suppose

[Stoker177]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	He's just banned any commissioners having any informal discussions before the trigger is pulled Article 50. Which everyone is going to ignore.

Get a feeling the Polish will ignore him....

	Quote:	idefix
	Actually Merkel, Oland and Renzi have refused any informal talks before A50... No way back I suppose

Of course they have, however what they say and what actually happens are two different things completely. As President of the European Commission that only negotiates behind closed doors, Junker should see this.

[JagWaugh]

For anyone who is interested in the source information about what is going on in the EU, have a look at:


http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ep-liv...ate=28-06-2016


Newspapers and pundits will condense, and spin it, but knowing what is actually being said may help.


When you are in a dark room filled with straw men, you need to be careful with matches.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	He's just banned any commissioners having any informal discussions before the trigger is pulled Article 50. Which everyone is going to ignore.

Why would such senior politicians take the risk of ignoring a clear instruction; what would they have to gain?

[ZuriRollt]

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	Zurirollt, It does work as a .pdf (but the reply quote is broken) Once I read "What it could mean" I knew that it wasn't concrete information. Have I been away from Canada for so long that I no longer understand English?

Thanks, have reloaded it (after deleting it). This is UBS's official response (published just after the referendum). Has some interesting stuff in there:

Attachment 115807

	Quote:	ZuriRollt
	For once, I have to agree with the Daily Mail headlines that England is currently a "Laughing Stock". Very sad.

Yeah, but that's because of Iceland.

	Quote:	marton
	Why would such senior politicians take the risk of ignoring a clear instruction; what would they have to gain?

Stability? A coherent plan?

It's not a new idea in diplomacy, to say one thing and do something else.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	Why would such senior politicians take the risk of ignoring a clear instruction; what would they have to gain?

Exactly. The very senior politicians should obey the clear instructions from the technocrat masters! Bloody uppity politicians thinking they should have a say in things or independent thought! Pah!

[greenmount]

	Quote:	idefix
	Tell them not to worry, war will be in EU not outisde, so UK has done very well to get out while the boat starts to sink. EU is a failed project and will dissolve any time now. Just like the USSR, Yugoslavia... Just like those countries, it's not democratic!

Let's not mix up different events and the history of these failures. USSR was created by force, whereas EU is a project to each every country has adhered willingly. (they should make their exit the same way, if needed)
If anything, Yugoslavia and the rise of nationalism should serve us a good lesson..

Farage up

[marton]

Serious, not joking!

I am starting to wonder if Brexit will really happen!

It is clear that nobody can force Britain to invoke Article 50.
To invoke it will require an Act of Parliament in a Parliament where the majority of MPs are for Remain; how long that will take is very hard to know. It will certainly require a new PM committed to Leave and maybe later a new general election to replace "Remain" MPs.

I know the argument about "the will of the people" but instead of this "will" becoming clearer now it is getting ever more confused.

I only recently realised there was not one Leave campaign but multiple campaigns which were not coordinated.
Now if we ask about campaign promises we get answers like "not us, ask the other lot" or "suck it up, we won".

Farage himself is now in the Press accusing Boris of "back sliding".

It is clear the NHS will not get £350M per week; it is not even clear if there will be any savings at all if Britain (like Norway and Switzerland) has to make EU contributions to stay in the single market.

Immigration; Boris now says people did not vote for immigration and free movement of people is required for any single market trade deal.

That leaves us with "escape from EU control"; even this is doubtful as any EU single market trade deal (again like Switzerland [full acceptance] and Norway [ca. 30% acceptance]) will likely require acceptance of some/all EU laws.

The whole thing is becoming a farce.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Farage up

Then back down while the chairman reminded the rest to behave like decent human beings.


Then he got back up again and did his level best to insult absolutely everyone.


Chairmain just said to the hecklers that they shouldn't behave like UKIP normally does.

[ZuriRollt]

	Quote:
	Yeah, but that's because of Iceland.

Well, admittedly I suppose I just look at it very naively.

But I can't help wondering what my London based financial colleagues will do, now that UBS is reconsidering it's position in the UK.

Current market movements are mostly reactionary and speculation. The UK economy has not changed since the referendum. The sabre rattling by the EU can backfire on itself. It showcases its own petulance.

The refusal to talk before Article 50 is intentionally hostile and purely punitive. I would look into challenging that in the ECJ itself to litmus test the court itself for its impartiality. There is nothing keeping countries from talking with each other.

There is no rush to trigger Article 50. Wait and relax, and the market should level out correctly. The worse thing the UK can do is panic and blunder. It should bide its time for its own advantage for best outcome. Use the time to unite the country with a single purpose first.

Its only been a few days. Everyone should go on vacation first.

[idefix]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Let's not mix up different events and the history of these failures. USSR was created by force, whereas EU is a project to each every country has adhered willingly. (they should make their exit the same way, if needed) If anything, Yugoslavia and the rise of nationalism should serve us a good lesson..

Was the Lisbon treaty also willingly adhered? Because I remember they forced second referendum on the Irish people and didn't give chance to other EU states to vote on the issue. Exactly like Marshal Tito would have done, just like the student protests in 1968: "Students, you are right, but stop the protests and go back to studing"

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Why would such senior politicians take the risk of ignoring a clear instruction; what would they have to gain?

I think there are a lot of people who have a lot to gain if they can publically humilate one of the EU's most hated figures.

Especially when there are elections coming up.

[adrianlondon]

	Quote:	marton
	It is clear the NHS will not get £350M per week

Especially considering the billions (£8 billion as of yesterday evening) of tax payers' money the government has lost in their RBS and LLOY shares since the result.

I own RBS shares. I'd done well a few years ago playing the markets every few days. They went up, I sold. They came down, I bought. I was smug! I kept some shares as they went down a bit below what I paid, waiting for them to come up again (a typical non-professional investor mistake). At least I've not lost £8 billion I've lost just about all the profit I'd made. Oh well. Luckily nearly all of my money went into other investments which are doing ok.

An interesting fact (assuming the UK does actually exit the EU - there are chances of a change in the way the EU is run and that being an excuse for the UK not to invoke article-50 or whatever it is) .... people who voted Exit tended to be from poorer areas in the UK; areas that receive a lot of EU funding.

Now some on here have said (correctly) "Oh, but it's out tax payers' money that goes to the EU and they give it back as they see fit". Yes they do - to poor areas in Cornwall, parts of Wales etc. All those areas who voted Exit.

Now, phew, we can control our own finances. A nice right wing Tory government will now give the money to ... London, their cronies and the financial sector. Ironically worse for the Exit voters and better for many of the Remain voters. Weird, isn't it.

The problem isn't (it never was imo) the EU, it was the government in the UK. It's starting to fall apart, but like all explosions they're almost impossible to predict. Personally I'd vote for a Jeremy Corbin Labour government, and the possibility to do so may continue to exist, but I doubt enough people share my pov to make it happen.

That was hilarious.