The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[bowlie]

	Quote:	Polymath
	Sounds nice! Spontaneous and carefree, without the entrapments of today.

I’d check the details on packages.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	You forgot the little bit where they said it related to a no deal situation.

I expect that to be the pivot used, that and plus the only reason things aren't worse is due to the generosity of the EU Brexit has gone from utter carnage to needing to get a passport stamped and no free jollies for students to go to Stockholm for a year.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I expect that to be the pivot used, that and plus the only reason things aren't worse is due to the generosity of the EU Brexit has gone from utter carnage to needing to get a passport stamped and no free jollies for students to go to Stockholm for a year.

Lol. Right. That's the only change that Brexit has rung in.

Brexit has already caused enormous damage to the UK, both financially and in terms of reputation, during the ludicrously protracted transition period. Now it remains to be seen what the lasting effects on the economy will be. Not positive, is the general consensus.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:
	Lol. Right. That's the only change that Brexit has rung in. Brexit has already caused enormous damage to the UK, both financially and in terms of reputation, during the ludicrously protracted transition period. Now it remains to be seen what the lasting effects on the economy will be. Not positive, is the general consensus.

Willing to bet you that the English economy outperforms all of Germany, France, Italy and Spain in the next 10-20 years.

[JackieH]

you should move back asap then, no? Feet where mouth is and all that.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	I expect that to be the pivot used, that and plus the only reason things aren't worse is due to the generosity of the EU Brexit has gone from utter carnage to needing to get a passport stamped and no free jollies for students to go to Stockholm for a year.

Actually the free jollies are still on. Though in my experience Scandinavia is a thoroughly unjolly place (albeit I have only experienced Denmark, Norway and Iceland and not Sweden).

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	JackieH
	you should move back asap then, no? Feet where mouth is and all that.

Why? I hate London and there's no jobs up north in my rather niche field. Salaries are far lower and tax is far higher than in Switzerland (true for EU countries too).

This (Switzerland) is the best country in Europe and I don't see that changing. You aren't getting rid of me that easily...

I would consider the US but that ship has sailed for me (I'd need to requalify and take a huge initial salary hit).

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	Its a clear political point by the vendors anyway. If it wasn't they'd just add a surcharge to the consumer if the costs have gone up for them. The fact that the vendor ships to every country in the world except Britain, shows its just another European with a colonial attitude.

What would be the basis for such a calculation? How do you calculate the 3rd party liability risk for other transports that are delayed because driver and lorry are stuck at Dover for days, a risk that's probably impossible to get insurance against because it's foreseeable? How do you make the British customer pay for the transport company's damaged reputation resulting from the 3rd parties' damages?

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	Willing to bet you that the English economy outperforms all of Germany, France, Italy and Spain in the next 10-20 years.

I expect so to, demographics alone should ensure that if nothing else.

I believe in one my first posts on this thread I said that I never expected Brexit to have a massive influence on the UK economy either way and I still think that is the case. There are economic advantages to be had from Brexit, however I still don't think there is the political will to take advantage of it. The main advantage is that the UK government will have to govern and no longer be able to use the EU as an excuse for anything.

As for the EU, Covid has accelerated the pace in which the world was moving anyway. The EU cannot keep up their war on tech, whilst trying to use regulation and trade barriers to preserve the outdated industries and expect the economy to thrive.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	The EU cannot keep up their war on tech, whilst trying to use regulation and trade barriers to preserve the outdated industries and expect the economy to thrive.

This! I'm happy to get all the insults that I am a little Englander or whatever as I know that its the pro-EU side who are really intent on protectionism and the old world economy.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	JackieH
	you should move back asap then, no? Feet where mouth is and all that.

Incidentally if a Brexiteer suggested that someone should "go home" there would likely be certain accusations made.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	Willing to bet you that the English economy outperforms all of Germany, France, Italy and Spain in the next 10-20 years.

It does not really matter how the economy performs, the voters will decide based on how their situation has changed as a result having voted for BREXIT....

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	Incidentally if a Brexiteer suggested that someone should "go home" there would likely be certain accusations made.

JackieH said something similar on another thread about someone living in the wrong canton and not being a true Romande owtte due to them saying they were from eastern Europe, at least that's how I understood it. I raised an eyebrow but no one else appeared to be bothered.

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	Willing to bet you that the English economy outperforms all of Germany, France, Italy and Spain in the next 10-20 years.

Happy to take that bet, but not happy to wait 10–20 years to collect on it. How about we just skip forward to 2040, where I can assure you England (for that's all that will be left of the UK) will be at the mercy of the United States of Europe, the Middle East and Parts of Asia (USEMEPA). I accept payment in CHF or BTC.

Also, in your world, apparently you see the UK taking 10–20 years to get its economy working outside of Europe. That seems a harsh lesson for Brexiteers to learn (although as explained, Britain's economy won't be up to the standards of the EU's by then anyway).

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:
	Happy to take that bet, but not happy to wait 10–20 years to collect on it. How about we just skip forward to 2040, where I can assure you England (for that's all that will be left of the UK) will be at the mercy of the United States of Europe, the Middle East and Parts of Asia (USEMAPA). I accept payment in CHF or BTC. Also, in your world, apparently you see the UK taking 10–20 years to get its economy working outside of Europe. That seems a harsh lesson for Brexiteers to learn (although as explained, Britain's economy won't be up to the standards of the EU's by then anyway).

Fwiw I think the UK / Englands likely superior performance is really nothing to do with brexit either way.

What really matters are fundamentals. Which means quality companies and demographics. All of Europe is living in the 20th Century with respect to the former but the UKs demographics are less bad than most.

I would imagine by 2040 the EUs power in the world (even if it remains 100% intact) will have declined sufficiently that nobody will be at its mercy. That's the safest prediction of all.

Mountains of debt, protectionism and terrible demographics tell their own story. And the Euro remains a huge problem - big decisions will have to be made when interest rates rise. Theres been a lot of can kicking.

Basically I don't think brexit is in any way a per we answer to the UKs issues but I hope it makes us wake up and smell the coffee that Reform is needed.

[JackieH]

Hickvonfrick- glad to hear it. It just sounded so wonderful, thought you might be tempted.

One problem is, that so many Brexiters don't seem to understand the Deal that has been signed. Take Daniel Hannan today saying the UK should not scrap workers' right and EU standards protection (the Hannan who kept saying during the Campaign that 'no-one but no-one was talking about leaving the Customs' Union and the Single Market) ...

This would lead to automatic tariffs being levied against UK Goods. That is very clear.

As for being a true 'Londoner'/ 'Yorkshireman'/Geordie or Scouse, or Romande for that matter- living there for a few years generally does not qualify, somehow. And I never mentionned Eastern Europe, for sure - it is about attitude, to Europe, for instance, Romand/e/s are not anti EU overall.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	JackieH said something similar on another thread about someone living in the wrong canton and not being a true Romande owtte due to them saying they were from eastern Europe, at least that's how I understood it. I raised an eyebrow but no one else appeared to be bothered.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	MusicChick

Well somebody is always going on about CZ.

[JackieH]

How long would you have to live in Bohemia or some small CZ town to be accepted as a 'local'?

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	JackieH
	Hickvonfrick- glad to hear it. It just sounded so wonderful, thought you might be tempted. One problem is, that so many Brexiters don't seem to understand the Deal that has been signed. Take Daniel Hannan today saying the UK should not scrap workers' right and EU standards protection (the Hannan who kept saying during the Campaign that 'no-one but no-one was talking about leaving the Customs' Union and the Single Market) ... This would lead to automatic tariffs being levied against UK Goods. That is very clear. As for being a true 'Londoner'/ 'Yorkshireman'/Geordie or Scouse, or Romande for that matter- living there for a few years generally does not qualify, somehow. And I never mentionned Eastern Europe, for sure - it is about attitude, to Europe, for instance, Romand/e/s are not anti EU overall.

The main harm caused by Tariffs is the consumer in ones own country for many products.