The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

Karma

	Quote:
	Fishing fury: UK boats stuck in harbour after BAN from Norway, Greenland & Faroe waters

Without individual bilateral deals on quotas with Greenland, the Faroes and especially Norway, there is no viable long-term distant-waters fishing industry in the UK.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	The main harm caused by Tariffs is the consumer in ones own country for many products.

True. But if the alternative results in massive job loss and layoffs that may still be the preferable option.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	True. But if the alternative results in massive job loss and layoffs that may still be the preferable option.

Just reported yesterday, Brexit job exodus 'substantially less' than predicted, BoE governor says. To put into context, less financial services jobs have been lost from the entire city of London due to Brexit than have been cut by Lufthansa.

For those that haven't been paying attention, he also explains again that to be self regulating is far more important than having a services deal with the EU. There will be no deal if it involves the EU ability to regulate financial services.

https://news.sky.com/story/boe-gover...icted-12180684

[JackieH]

George Monbiot on Capitalism, or rather 'Capitalisms'

Broadly speaking, there are two dominant forms of capitalist enterprise. The first could be described as housetrained capitalism. It seeks an accommodation with the administrative state, and benefits from stability, predictability and the regulations that exclude dirtier and rougher competitors. It can coexist with a tame and feeble form of democracy.

The second could be described as warlord capitalism. This sees all restraints on accumulation – including taxes, regulations and the public ownership of essential services – as illegitimate. Nothing should be allowed to stand in the way of profit-making. Its justifying ideology was formulated by Friedrich Hayek in The Constitution of Liberty and by Ayn Rand in Atlas Shrugged. These books sweep away social complexity and other people’s interests. They fetishise something they call “liberty”, which turns out to mean total freedom for plutocrats, at society’s expense.

In unguarded moments, the warlords and their supporters go all the way. Hayek, for example, on a visit to Pinochet’s Chile, said he preferred a “liberal dictatorship” to “a democratic government devoid of liberalism”. Peter Thiel, the cofounder of PayPal and Palantir, confessed: “I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible.” Last month, Mike Lee, senior Republican senator for Utah, claimed that “democracy isn’t the objective” of the US political system, “liberty, peace, and prosperity are”.

Brexit represents an astonishing opportunity for warlord capitalism. It is a chance not just to rip up specific rules, which it overtly aims to do, but also to tear down the uneasy truce between capitalism and democracy under which public protections in general are created and enforced. In Steve Bannon’s words, it enables “the deconstruction of the administrative state”. Chaos is not a threat but an opportunity for money’s warlords. Peter Hargreaves, the billionaire who donated £3.2m to the Leave.EU campaign, explained that after Brexit: “We will get out there and we will become incredibly successful because we will be insecure again. And insecurity is fantastic.”

The chaos it is likely to cause will be used as its own justification: times are tough, so we must slash regulations and liberate business to make us rich again. Johnson’s government will seek to use a no-deal or thin-deal Brexit to destroy at least some of the constraints on the most brutal forms of capitalism.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...xit-capitalism

Insecurity is indeed fantastic, for the very few- as clearly stated by Rees-Mogg Snr in his book on how to profit massively from disaster politics.

[Dinivan]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Just reported yesterday, Brexit job exodus 'substantially less' than predicted, BoE governor says. To put into context, less financial services jobs have been lost from the entire city of London due to Brexit than have been cut by Lufthansa. For those that haven't been paying attention, he also explains again that to be self regulating is far more important than having a services deal with the EU. There will be no deal if it involves the EU ability to regulate financial services. https://news.sky.com/story/boe-gover...icted-12180684

It's hard to conclude on the effects of the financial industry before the Brexit deal occurred, and now the EU/ECB are unilaterally granting a grace period to London.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	To put into context, less financial services jobs have been lost from the entire city of London due to Brexit than have been cut by Lufthansa.

I doubt that Lufthansa had too many financial services jobs. They fly/flew aeroplanes don’tch know?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	bowlie
	I doubt that Lufthansa had too many financial services jobs. They fly/flew aeroplanes don’tch know?

He was pointing out the insignificance of the no of job losses in the grand scheme of things. British Airways has laid of nearly twice as many this year, on top of loads year after year.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	He was pointing out the insignificance of the no of job losses in the grand scheme of things. British Airways has laid of nearly twice as many this year, on top of loads year after year.

And worth remembering that there will be EU firms who need to offer a UK office.

[marton]

Seems to be a problem both ways

	Quote:
	A growing number of retailers and courier firms are suspending or cutting back deliveries into the EU as companies grapple with new border controls as well as import taxes. On Friday DPD, the international delivery giant, said it was “pausing” its road service from the UK into Europe, including the Republic of Ireland. Separately, Marks & Spencer said it was concerned that a third of the products in its Irish food halls, including Percy Pig sweets, would now be subject to import tariffs. Such taxes could spell higher prices for shoppers.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Just reported yesterday, Brexit job exodus 'substantially less' than predicted, BoE governor says. To put into context, less financial services jobs have been lost from the entire city of London due to Brexit than have been cut by Lufthansa. For those that haven't been paying attention, he also explains again that to be self regulating is far more important than having a services deal with the EU. There will be no deal if it involves the EU ability to regulate financial services. https://news.sky.com/story/boe-gover...icted-12180684

Predicted by whom, when, and by when?

He talks about the financial sector only, and without providing an outlook. As if manufacturing didn't exist. Or fishing. Etc.

[Spinal]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Predicted by whom, when, and by when? He talks about the financial sector only, and without providing an outlook. As if manufacturing didn't exist. Or fishing. Etc.

I would love to know how they calculated this.


I know firsthand of a company that made offers to a lot of staff based in canary wharf to take a new role in mainland Europe, America and Asia.


Of course this was not brexit related, just an odd coincidence...

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	Spinal
	I would love to know how they calculated this. I know firsthand of a company that made offers to a lot of staff based in canary wharf to take a new role in mainland Europe, America and Asia. Of course this was not brexit related, just an odd coincidence...

I know Canary Wharf like the back of my hand having lived there. Which company is this? Why would Brexit result in them needing to go to "America or Asia" neither of which are in the EU.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Just reported yesterday, Brexit job exodus 'substantially less' than predicted, BoE governor says. To put into context, less financial services jobs have been lost from the entire city of London due to Brexit than have been cut by Lufthansa. For those that haven't been paying attention, he also explains again that to be self regulating is far more important than having a services deal with the EU. There will be no deal if it involves the EU ability to regulate financial services. https://news.sky.com/story/boe-gover...icted-12180684

Seems to be cherry picking, he also said
"Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey risked reigniting the politically charged debate over Brexit by predicting that the trade deal struck with the European Union could end up costing the U.K. economy the equivalent of more than 80 billion pounds ($109 billion).

[JackieH]

OK, let's be positive here and look at the bright sidde, Can anyone make a list of anything which is better now we have left.

But I have one thing to be so thankful for, and that is our Brexiter friends have not yet rubbed our faces into one single sucess story so far, which is very kind and honourable of them. Thank you

Seems that even Boris can't find any, so perhaps we will have to wait for some time, oder?

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/johnson-pleads-with.../

[SponPlague]

	Quote:	JackieH
	OK, let's be positive here and look at the bright sidde, Can anyone make a list of anything which is better now we have left. But I have one thing to be so thankful for, and that is our Brexiter friends have not yet rubbed our faces into one single sucess story so far, which is very kind and honourable of them. Thank you Seems that even Boris can't find any, so perhaps we will have to wait for some time, oder? https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/johnson-pleads-with.../

Erm, Covid vaccinatiion ahead of the EU?

https://www.ft.com/content/c0ae3056-...c-5e84fd203f3b

[Island Monkey]

	Quote:	JackieH
	OK, let's be positive here and look at the bright sidde, Can anyone make a list of anything which is better now we have left.

The only time I thought “Ooh it might be worth it for that”..... was when there was talk about freedom of movement between some Commonwealth countries (AUS,NZ,CA,UK) that would be worth it (for me) but I can’t see it happening.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	JackieH
	But I have one thing to be so thankful for, and that is our Brexiter friends have not yet rubbed our faces into one single sucess story so far, which is very kind and honourable of them. Thank you

Well the Unionists in Northern Ireland have added a new term to their vocabulary - All Island Solutions, they have advised their constituents to apply for Irish passports and have even admitted to signing such application forms... that is a major paradigm shift for them, given that it’s not so long ago that many of them were not even willing to recognize that the Irish state existed!

	Quote:	SponPlague
	Erm, Covid vaccinatiion ahead of the EU? https://www.ft.com/content/c0ae3056-...c-5e84fd203f3b

Nothing to do with Brexit. Even in the EU the UK could have made an emergency authorisation.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	JackieH
	OK, let's be positive here and look at the bright sidde, Can anyone make a list of anything which is better now we have left. But I have one thing to be so thankful for, and that is our Brexiter friends have not yet rubbed our faces into one single sucess story so far, which is very kind and honourable of them. Thank you Seems that even Boris can't find any, so perhaps we will have to wait for some time, oder? https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/johnson-pleads-with.../

UK is ahead of the EU with vaccinations & has vaccinated more people tan the E.U. No need to wait for the EU to decide on this, think of the no of lives that will be saved as a result! Even my 76 year old step mother in law has had the first dose, she was amazed she got it so quickly & was assuming February / March.

[JackieH]

	Quote:
	Nothing to do with Brexit. Even in the EU the UK could have made an emergency authorisation.

Yes, that is clear- the UK or any other EU country could have chosen to.