The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Mikers]

	Quote:	JackieH
	Thank you for your contribution- any more, from anyone?

Class ? Anyone ? Bueller? Anyone ?

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	Having enough vaccine to go around? The old wrinklies voting for brexit have saved their own skin on that front. Remaining would have cost thousands of lives to extra Covid deaths.

What?

How do you figure that?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Mikers
	This is why we lost. I just don’t understand why you genuinely believe that people didn’t know what they were voting for, they did and this prevailing attitude from the remain side is what got every single leave voter down the voting booth on polling day while the EU loving students who could have swung the vote couldn’t be arsed to get out of bed and vote. For the sneering snobby bit take another read of the tone of the earlier post asking for a list of advantages to leaving.

It was clear what they were voting *against*, but how can they have known what they were voting *for* when there was not even a shred of a coherent concept for what was to follow?

Yes, Farage's red herring bus got people hooked but that's been a thing of the past long before BoJo's election as PM, which is generally seen as a confirmation of the "Leave" vote. What else?

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	It was clear what they were voting *against*, but how can they have known what they were voting *for* when there was not even a shred of a coherent concept for what was to follow? Yes, Farage's red herring bus got people hooked but that's been a thing of the past long before BoJo's election as PM. What else?

Farage was (the more nativist) Leave.EU - the bus was (the more moderate) Vote Leave.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:
	What? How do you figure that?

The EU hasn't bought enough vaccine for its member states. This has been covered extensively in the news. Even the bloke who invented the Pfizer vaccine expressed surprise at the low numbers ordered. Now Germany has broken its agreement with the EU and gone off and ordered vaccine individually.

Were the UK in the EU itd have far less vaccine than it does.

I could also add that the uk authorities have been quicker to grant marketing authorisation than the EU (who in turn basically called the very distinguished scientists who make these decisions names).

[JackieH]

Which shows it can and could be done- by any member.

But back to that list, please.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	Farage was (the more nativist) Leave.EU - the bus was (the more moderate) Vote Leave.

My bad then. Still, the main point stays, nobody talks about those £350mln any more, and there was no concept that could have been voted for.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	JackieH
	Which shows it can and could be done- by any member. But back to that list, please.

Germany has had to break a contract with the EU to do so. Even vaccine they've ordered now won't be delivered until later than the UKs because the UK ordered much more quickly.

The fact the Germans aren't following the Ordung shows something is seriously amiss. They'd normally be the last to do such a thing.

So we've got more vaccine, more quickly and with earlier permission to start vaccinating. All due to brexit.

Remain politicians said going it alone with vaccine ordering was playing politics with peoples lives. They've got some explaining to do.

[JackieH]

Well, let'a agree to disagree on that one - time to add to the long list.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	JackieH
	Well, let'a agree to disagree on that one - time to add to the long list.

I'll agree to see how it looks by the summer.

[JackieH]

Great.

How about the list now.

[RufusB]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	It's actually true that I didn't know what I was voting for. Nobody knew what would happen if leave won. But I sure knew what I was voting against and was willing to roll the dice on that basis.

This actually makes sense, in terms of voting to leave, thank you.

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	We both know not much will change for the working classes. They just wanted to sock one to the establishment. In no scenarios will they morph into EU loving guardianistas. They'll just be looking for another scalp.

I don't think this is true, however. The establishment lied about what would change but I've made that point already.

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	Having enough vaccine to go around? The old wrinklies voting for brexit have saved their own skin on that front. Remaining would have cost thousands of lives to extra Covid deaths.

I don't believe Brexit had anything to do with this. An order was simply placed and paid for in a timely manner. Flu vaccine manufacturers were asked to increase stocks as the pandemic wind was blowing - they just didn't realise it wouldn't be flu that would level everyone.

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	The EU hasn't bought enough vaccine for its member states. This has been covered extensively in the news. Even the bloke who invented the Pfizer vaccine expressed surprise at the low numbers ordered. Now Germany has broken its agreement with the EU and gone off and ordered vaccine individually. Were the UK in the EU itd have far less vaccine than it does. I could also add that the uk authorities have been quicker to grant marketing authorisation than the EU (who in turn basically called the very distinguished scientists who make these decisions names).

Again, i don't believe it to be an EU thing, AFAIK each country sorts themselves out. Not ordering enough doses is therefore an internal stock control issue, as it were.

Agreed, Jackie, remainer does not automatically equal socialist.

I'd be interested in seeing that list too.

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	The EU hasn't bought enough vaccine for its member states. This has been covered extensively in the news. Even the bloke who invented the Pfizer vaccine expressed surprise at the low numbers ordered. Now Germany has broken its agreement with the EU and gone off and ordered vaccine individually. Were the UK in the EU itd have far less vaccine than it does. I could also add that the uk authorities have been quicker to grant marketing authorisation than the EU (who in turn basically called the very distinguished scientists who make these decisions names).

My recollection (confirmed when I just searched now) was that the EU had ordered hundreds of millions of doses of vaccines from multiple possible suppliers—more than enough to cover its entire adult population, let alone before it became apparent that a large percentage of those adults would refuse vaccination.

On top of that, as I recall, every member state was free to.make its own arrangements, if so desired. The UK was "bound" by the same conditions until 31.12.2020; bound in inverted commas because those conditions were anything but restrictive.

Then there's also the minor issue of the substantial loans (hundreds of millions of euros) granted by the European Investment Bank to BioNTech, CureVac, et al. to develop their vaccines. Without the EU, there would be "Pfizer" vaccine (developed by BioNTech), no upcoming "Bayer" vaccine (CureVac), etc.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Personally I hope we get on and rejoin now in a few years, but I doubt it as long as your type is around sneering away like some intellectual upper class.

Why? Why do you hope so? You obviously hate EU and everything that it represents so? I really hope UK will stay where people voted to stay. Good luck.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Why? Why do you hope so? You obviously hate EU and everything that it represents so? I really hope UK will stay where people voted to stay. Good luck.

Not at all, I am for remain, for single EU, for single market and for FMOP. I always have been and I expect always will and I do not for a moment dislike the EU, I think it is a powerful and important being.

my fundamental override on that though is that democracy is the most important institution. No matter what people's opinions on the vote - which is what we all have, just opinions - when it came to actual counting of votes, leave won the vote and remain lost. Therefore democratically, we need to leave the EU. After that, we hopefully can rejoin if the political landscape is correct.

If you don't leave though, if you have a public referendum where the choice is "leave" or "remain" and then when the public votes leave the countries leaders say "actually, no, we won't do it", then you have fundamentally broken the democratic process and this really matters.

The only hate involved is how much you hate the UK and gain happiness in its decision to leave.

	Quote:	Mikers
	If you don't leave though, if you have a public referendum where the choice is "leave" or "remain" and then when the public votes leave the countries leaders say "actually, no, we won't do it", then you have fundamentally broken the democratic process and this really matters.

This is a fantastically important point.

But the UK, like most countries, really needs to sharpen its democratic polling of public opinion, a.k.a. voting. Every person eligible to vote should be required to express their opinion, even if only to formalize "no opinion". Compulsory voting is the only way to understand the desires of ALL of the electorate. In a simple binary vote like a referendum, there are actually three possible.outcomes:

1. Yes
2. No
3. I don't know/couldn't be arsed voting/don't want to tell you my opinion

All three are available In compulsory voting (the third by not filling in or deliberately spoiling the ballot). Even if a voter decides option 3 (no vote), they have actively exercised their right not to state an opinion, rather than passively had that opinion foisted upon them.

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	This is a fantastically important point. But the UK, like most countries, really needs to sharpen its democratic polling of public opinion, a.k.a. voting. Every person eligible to vote should be required to express their opinion, even if only to formalize "no opinion". Compulsory voting is the only way to understand the desires of ALL of the electorate. In a simple binary vote like a referendum, there are actually three possible.outcomes: Yes No I don't know/couldn't be arsed voting/don't want to tell you my opinion All three are available In compulsory voting (the third by not filling in or deliberately spoiling the ballot). Even if a voter decides option 3 (no vote), they have actively exercised their right not to state an opinion, rather than passively had that opinion foisted upon them.

Not so sure it works though. You have a binary state, but three outcomes, it doesnt match.

If the idea is that leave would have to gain enough leave to beath remain + dont know, then leave is at a disadvantage.

If you turn the question round "do you want to remain in the EU ?" and "yes" doesn't beat leave plus "dont know" do you then leave ?

It all gets very difficult.

Simpler is to have two options "Yes" or "No" but say if you don't vote you get fined, or shot, or some suitable deterrent. then you push enough people to get to the booth to say its a reasonably high turnout.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	Germany has had to break a contract with the EU to do so. Even vaccine they've ordered now won't be delivered until later than the UKs because the UK ordered much more quickly. The fact the Germans aren't following the Ordung shows something is seriously amiss. They'd normally be the last to do such a thing. So we've got more vaccine, more quickly and with earlier permission to start vaccinating. All due to brexit. Remain politicians said going it alone with vaccine ordering was playing politics with peoples lives. They've got some explaining to do.

This is actually turning out to be a real scandal in Germany and the Low Countries. It illustrates perfectly what is wrong with the EU, wanting to take control of vaccine procurement, then putting so many of the eggs in the basket of the Sanofi vaccine for the sake of the optics of European unity, even though it's miles away from approval. Add to that the delay in getting other vaccines approved.

Same goes for ventilator procurement, the member state took control of that too eventually. At some point someone may work out how many lives this has all cost!!

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	This is actually turning out to be a real scandal in Germany and the Low Countries. It illustrates perfectly what is wrong with the EU, wanting to take control of vaccine procurement, then putting so many of the eggs in the basket of the Sanofi vaccine for the sake of the optics of European unity, even though it's miles away from approval. Add to that the delay in getting other vaccines approved. Same goes for ventilator procurement, the member state took control of that too eventually. At some point someone may work out how many lives this has all cost!!

The EU and Germany put a lot of financial support into the development of the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine; without this support, it would have been developed much later or maybe not at all.
As a result of the EU taking control of vaccine procurement, the EU has agreed pays only 15.50 euros per dose for the Pfizer and BioNTech lower than the US - what does the UK pay?

	Quote:	Mikers
	Not so sure it works though. You have a binary state, but three outcomes, it doesnt match. If the idea is that leave would have to gain enough leave to beath remain + dont know, then leave is at a disadvantage. If you turn the question round "do you want to remain in the EU ?" and "yes" doesn't beat leave plus "dont know" do you then leave ? It all gets very difficult. Simpler is to have two options "Yes" or "No" but say if you don't vote you get fined, or shot, or some suitable deterrent. then you push enough people to get to the booth to say its a reasonably high turnout.

Option 3 (no vote) doesn't get counted (except as.sppoled ballots, if the voter decides to do that). If the voter does not want to participate in the democratic process, s/he simply gets their name crossed off the list at the polling booth as if they had actually voted.

Australia has compulsory voting but nobody ever expects every voter to actually lodge a vote. They are, however, expected to turn up to the polling booth to consciously exercise their right to vote—or not to vote. I hope this makes sense...