The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	SponPlague
	My democracy guide says:

The question is if that's really causation. The fact that it didn't work in the other Cantons seems strong evidence that it's not. Even more so when SH's fine of 1.- until some 50 years ago was the lowest of them all according to this paper (in AI it was ten times that!). Likewise, 6 CHF fine today (increased a few years ago from the 3.- you mentioned) can't really be the reason for people to drop their ballot papers, the amount is far too low for that.

It seems much more plausible that the high participation rate is expression of a social norm that disappeared elsewhere. Which could well mean that the fine is entirely useless - heck it might even be counterproductive.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	To give you my own personal example at the point of leaving the UK in early 2020: - I didn't register for a GP in the 6 years I was in London (2014-2020) as I never needed to go. Lots of young people move frequently and don't always register or de-register. - I don't drive, passed my test at 18 in sixth form and never updated my address from my parents - I had a passport - but it was 8 years old and the address wasn't up to date - I never bothered to tell my employer when I moved, so they were presumably giving HRMC the wrong address - My wife paid the council tax bills as she owned the house (and had done before I met her). - I didn't register to vote, as there was no election, and I was planning on moving abroad. I knew that you are only entitled to vote as an expat in the last place you are registered - which for my previous address was a marginal seat - so I didn't register at my wife's address in order that I could keep my vote in that marginal seat after the move (although obviously didn't use it while living at my wife's). Bending the rules perhaps but legal - the guidance is clear that its the last place you are registered. Granted, most people will have given their address at some point. But there will likely be loads of old addresses still on file. There's probably 3 or 4 wrong addresses for me on file.

It's basically for these reasons that the UK has such a massive influx of illegal immigrants. A problem entirely of her own making, people can turn up and just disappear. Most other countries in Europe one has to register with the local authorities.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	But you keep on ignoring me when I tell you the biggest advantage to date has been non-participation both in EMA and the EU Covid vaccine "solidarity" scheme - despite the overwhelming evidence that it's allowed a much quicker rollout. Despite the fact that the NHS is incredibly inefficient and bureaucratic.

Nobody forced the countries to participate, as such the UK's headstart has nothing to do with Brexit (oops, overlooked your mentioning this, sorry).

The rollout can't start before the vaccine's (provisional emergency) approval, that took 3wks longer than in the UK. However that also allowed for improved scrutiny, just imagine what would have happened if the Pfizer vaccine had turned out to be harmful.

And the producers are liable for damages in the EU. Conversely, Pfizer is immune in the UK, Pfizer and Moderna in the USA. In CH of course, too. In fact it may well be that all producers have managed to get legal immunity for the vaccine outside of the EU.

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	The EU market will continue to decline as a share of world trade and at some point Britain will be able to treat the EU as just another trading partner.

If history is anything to go by the outlook is even poorer than the EU's, with or without Brexit.

Exports (goods + services) as share of GDP are basically constant and (ignoring a few short term extremes) in a sideways range of 15-18% over the timespan depicted with ~17% today. That implies that the UK's worldwide GDP share has sunk at least as quickly (probably much faster) as its share in exports. That decline seems to be much steeper than the EU's.

Chart courtesy of the House of Commons LIbrary. The PDF provides a rather interesting historic overview, you're probably interested.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The question is if that's really causation. The fact that it didn't work in the other Cantons seems strong evidence that it's not. Even more so when SH's fine of 1.- until some 50 years ago was the lowest of them all according to this paper (in AI it was ten times that!). Likewise, 6 CHF fine today (increased a few years ago from the 3.- you mentioned) can't really be the reason for people to drop their ballot papers, the amount is far too low for that. It seems much more plausible that the high participation rate is expression of a social norm that disappeared elsewhere. Which could well mean that the fine is entirely useless - heck it might even be counterproductive.

I suspect that more people vote in SH because it's a legal requirement to do so. The fine is not a deterrent not to vote; it's simply the feeling of civic responsibility, or even civil liability -- a very Swiss attitude of "it's the law, so I will do it".

[bowlie]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	If I understand correctly, we can still bring vegan sandwiches to Holland. Only dairy and meat is excluded

Yes, but they need to test the margarine to endure it isn’t butter.

[amogles]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	Thank you. That is a very good item for that list! Big change, no bloodshed.

Not entirely maybe.

If Odile were here she would no doubt be reminding you of Jo Cox.

And probably blame Nigel Farage personally.

[Ato]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Yes, but they need to test the margarine to endure it isn’t butter.

But what happens if they can't believe it's I Can't Believe It's Not Butter!?

That is honestly one of the longest product names I can think of.

[JackieH]

Let's go back to Fisheries for a moment. This is un be lie va ble:

''Companies trying to export fish and other Scottish seafood have encountered red tape since the new trading rules with the EU came into force.

The SNP’s Brexit spokesperson, Philippa Whitford, said: “Due to Brexit-induced bureaucracy, Scotland’s fishing communities are already experiencing severe disruption and cannot get their produce to their customers in the EU market on time.

“For the Tory government’s fisheries minister to then admit that she did not even bother to read the details of the damaging deal because she was too busy is unbelievable and makes her position untenable.”

[JackieH]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	There's lots of people from developing countries who would love to work in any Western European country, UK included. I'm sure hiring from India, etc. would be quite easy.

perhaps you have not noticed that we are in the middle of a pandemic. do you watch British News- the Hospitals are full, but space is not the main issue- the main problem is staff- cleaners, carers, and of courses, nurses and doctors- especially specialists. Some doctors and nurses from other specialities are being re-deployed to Corona emergency wards- but just do not have the necessary training and experience. There is a massive shortage right now- and this is due to so many EU having left recently, and even more, who have chosen not to come.

As for India- perhaps you have not noticed they are going through this pandemic in much worse conditions - so they have their hands full. As for poaching the staff they have trained at huge cost (and I know this has been going on before Covid of course) - there are massive ethical issues to be considered.

Would it not be great if people could discuss, debate the list of 'project fear/reality', instead of just going on personal attacks. Including comparing a poster to a young woman who was murdered for wanting to make a difference. SICK.

[JackieH]

	Quote:	amogles
	Not entirely maybe. If Odile were here she would no doubt be reminding you of Jo Cox. And probably blame Nigel Farage personally.

Shameful comment- truly shameful. How dare you!

But very flattering too. Amazing young woman.

[JackieH]

In the meantime, the tensions with NI and the DUP are rising - Paisley is NOT happy and Gove looks a bit out of his depth

Not a fan of Paisley and the DUP, but they have a point, no?

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/bre...68?jwsource=cl

The new Ferry that started its route to Belfast on 1st of Jan has already been redirected from Ireland to Cherbourg.

[RufusB]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	It's basically for these reasons that the UK has such a massive influx of illegal immigrants. A problem entirely of her own making, people can turn up and just disappear. Most other countries in Europe one has to register with the local authorities.

Way to twist the narrative. Hickvonfrick's anecdotal evidence sample of one is hardly the reason why there are illegal immigrants. If anything it's an own goal.

It's incredibly difficult to be legally in the UK and not be registered. I suspect legal immigrants are on several lists before they even arrive.

It's probably easier to be an unregistered legal citizen, eg if parents fail to register a birth within the time frame.

I think you'll find that illegal immigrants tend to avoid registering with the local authorities in every country. Otherwise the would simply be immigrants.

[RufusB]

	Quote:	JackieH
	In the meantime, the tensions with NI and the DUP are rising - Paisley is NOT happy and Gove looks a bit out of his depth Not a fan of Paisley and the DUP, but they have a point, no? https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/bre...68?jwsource=cl The new Ferry that started its route to Belfast on 1st of Jan has already been redirected from Ireland to Cherbourg.

Gove would be out of his depth in a puddle.

[Ato]

	Quote:	JackieH
	In the meantime, the tensions with NI and the DUP are rising - Paisley is NOT happy and Gove looks a bit out of his depth Not a fan of Paisley and the DUP, but they have a point, no? https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/bre...68?jwsource=cl The new Ferry that started its route to Belfast on 1st of Jan has already been redirected from Ireland to Cherbourg.

Sorry Jackie, I can't find what's up with Paisley in that link. Just the ridicule of Redwood.

Paisley is never happy anyway so I can't see any change in his demeanor.

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/po...otocol-3094863

[JackieH]

Just scroll down the link - and he is there in all his grandeur. Never heard him sound so calm- and that is because he is truly, massively, totally, angry at the current situation. They are seriously talking abut schools and hospitals running out of food soon.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	JackieH
	perhaps you have not noticed that we are in the middle of a pandemic. do you watch British News- the Hospitals are full, but space is not the main issue- the main problem is staff- cleaners, carers, and of courses, nurses and doctors- especially specialists. Some doctors and nurses from other specialities are being re-deployed to Corona emergency wards- but just do not have the necessary training and experience. There is a massive shortage right now- and this is due to so many EU having left recently, and even more, who have chosen not to come. As for India- perhaps you have not noticed they are going through this pandemic in much worse conditions - so they have their hands full. As for poaching the staff they have trained at huge cost (and I know this has been going on before Covid of course) - there are massive ethical issues to be considered. Would it not be great if people could discuss, debate the list of 'project fear/reality', instead of just going on personal attacks. Including comparing a poster to a young woman who was murdered for wanting to make a difference. SICK.

I was more talking long term - we have who we have for this pandemic.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	RufusB
	Gove would be out of his depth in a puddle.

The one thing Gove isn't is thick or incompetent. He's head and shoulders the most competent person in the house of commons. You might not like him, but a lightweight he is not.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	JackieH
	In the meantime, the tensions with NI and the DUP are rising - Paisley is NOT happy and Gove looks a bit out of his depth Not a fan of Paisley and the DUP, but they have a point, no? https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/bre...68?jwsource=cl The new Ferry that started its route to Belfast on 1st of Jan has already been redirected from Ireland to Cherbourg.

Rule 1 of UK politics. Ignore anything Sinn Fein, DUP, Plaid, and the SNP say.

Rule 2 of UK politics. Ignore the publication "the new european". Its just there to provide anger and misery-porn to people who can't get the head around the result. It only sells copy if it convinces people the world is about to end. The "prepper" type.

(Obviously ignoring the mail and the express is also somewhere towards the top of the list)

Reality is that we've sold Northern Ireland out to the EU and that is why the DUP are furious. EVERYTHING is a sectarian battle to them.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	JackieH
	As for poaching the staff they have trained at huge cost (and I know this has been going on before Covid of course) - there are massive ethical issues to be considered.

Good point. I remember a time under FMOP when any EU doctor could work anywhere! Who recompensed Romania when their Doctors chose to work over here I demand to know ?

If we are short of Doctors we need to train more Doctors here in blighty. Im sure there was a party some time ago going on about more locally trained healthcare staff...hmm.... https://www.nursingtimes.net/roles/n...es-15-04-2015/

[JackieH]

Rule 1- not so easy. As the GFA is there, right in the middle- and there are NO solutions. Anyone who knows Ulster Unionists know that this is a very dangerous situation. Easy for us to say 'oh let's 're-unite' Ireland and be done with it' have not a single clue about the reality out there, not one.

You mentionned no bloodshed in a post above- but the tensions mounting in NI are truly concerning.

Rule 2 - your rule, not mine. As the BBC and other Press are in the pocket of the Cons and Brexiters, it is truly informative to have true independent, real, journalism.