The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	From today's Telegraph. Ouch!

Behaving like a dictatorship atm.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	JackieH
	Have you seen the front pages of the UK gutter press today- utterly shameful!? The EU paid £298,000,000 up front, back in August last year to help the UK build manufacturing capacity to make this vaccine in Britain. https://www.reuters.com/.../us-health-coronavirus-eu...

And the uk paid up much much more per capita months earlier to get the ball rolling...

You'll notice the us also has much more vaccine.

The EU, instead of showing contrition for its abject and inefficient lead, is attempting to strong arm a neighbouring country.

And now an unelected body that has no law enforcement role (EU commission) has demanded a raid on a private company that has only worked to help. Why on Earth would AZ be favouring the UK over the EU. The EU has no role in telling a private company how it's orders should be fulfilled. It can't pay less and late then complain it's getting the vaccine later.

Well at least the mask is well and truly off now.

[TonyClifton]

Now reports that Germany recommends AstraZeneca vaccine only for those under 65. This is turning into a full on meltdown

[marton]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	And the uk paid up much much more per capita months earlier to get the ball rolling... You'll notice the us also has much more vaccine. The EU, instead of showing contrition for its abject and inefficient lead, is attempting to strong arm a neighbouring country. And now an unelected body that has no law enforcement role (EU commission) has demanded a raid on a private company that has only worked to help. Why on Earth would AZ be favouring the UK over the EU. The EU has no role in telling a private company how it's orders should be fulfilled. It can't pay less and late then complain it's getting the vaccine later. Well at least the mask is well and truly off now.

So, in summary, the UK would have been better off and had fewer problems by staying in the EU.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Now reports that Germany recommends AstraZeneca vaccine only for those under 65. This is turning into a full on meltdown

Long term the other two are probably a bit better but atm I'd just be vaccinating as many old people as you can.

As we are in a situation of limited supply atm that's an extraordinarily stupid decision. Letting the Perfect be the Enemy of the Good.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	marton
	So, in summary, the UK would have been better off and had fewer problems by staying in the EU.

Well I'd rather have the problem of the EU throwing its weight around than a problem of insufficient vaccine.

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Now reports that Germany recommends AstraZeneca vaccine only for those under 65. This is turning into a full on meltdown

...being denied by the German government btw. If you burrow into the stories, it looks like someone in the German press has displayed FMF's aptitude for statistics.

I just checked the actual level of testing on older people by AZ and it is pretty low - only 3-4% of the test subjects were 70 or over (low as this is precisely the age group that have the weakest immune response generally). That is going to make any results (unless fairly extreme one way or the other) statistically rather unreliable for that age group. No idea how that compares with the other vaccines btw.

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:
	...being denied by the German government btw. If you burrow into the stories, it looks like someone in the German press has displayed FMF's aptitude for statistics. I just checked the actual level of testing on older people by AZ and it is pretty low - only 3-4% of the test subjects were 70 or over (low as this is precisely the age group that have the weakest immune response generally). That is going to make any results (unless fairly extreme one way or the other) statistically rather unreliable for that age group. No idea how that compares with the other vaccines btw.

Yes, what the Germans are saying is that the sample size for those over 65 is too small to be statistically significant, which strictly speaking is true. That said one can use deductive reasoning to determine that is very likely the Pfizer vaccine does work given the efficacy on other age groups.

Pretty hefty sample size from the UK that they'll be able to use soon though

[marton]

	Quote:	HickvonFrick
	Well I'd rather have the problem of the EU throwing its weight around than a problem of insufficient vaccine.

You know the old saying about "better the EU in the tent pi##ing out rather than outside the tent pi##ing in"

It is impossible to know if the vaccine availablity situation would have been the same if the UK had stayed in the EU and so been around to influence the decision making.

[Mikers]

So the EU is implementing its new set of rules allowing blocking of exports if wished by a nation https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-vaccine-plant

Will be interesting to see if this is actually carried out though. If the EU were really to stop vaccines the UK has a contract for and simply decide it will use those itself I would imagine it would have an astonishing effect on how people viewed Europe from inside the UK. Having a a few policies that people disagree with, ok so life goes on. Stopping vaccines which will save people's lives so they can use them themselves by ignoring a contractual agreement, I mean, wow.

[RufusB]

	Quote:	JackieH
	Sorry, not quite sure I understand your post here. The millions were given by the EU to make the vaccine in UK - on the proviso it would then have its fair share of the vaccine - for the EU.

I'm not sure where you are getting this from. AZ is a private company.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	RufusB
	I'm not sure where you are getting this from. AZ is a private company.

I think she means it's not a government controlled nationalised business, which is the ideal situation for a left wing biased voter

[JackieH]

	Quote:	RufusB
	I'm not sure where you are getting this from. AZ is a private company.

Ah thanks, yes, of course, I meant to say it is not a State Run company- it is of course a Public Limited Company.

[SponPlague]

It looks like AZ will publish some form of the contract:

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL8N2K37N5

[SponPlague]

Now the Spanish are blaming the EU:

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL8N2K34X7

	Quote:
	MADRID, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Spain’s health ministry is blaming the European Union for delays to COVID-19 vaccine deliveries that forced Madrid to halt new inoculations and threatened supplies across Spain, newspaper El Mundo quoted a leaked official document as saying. With stocks dwindling and new infections near record levels, regional authorities in Madrid have stopped vaccinating new people and are using their remaining supplies to administer second shots to those who have already received a first jab. Facing criticism from some regions, the central government pointed the finger at Brussels for the supply problems in a draft agenda for a summit of regional health chiefs due to be held later on Thursday. “It is the European Union that negotiates and signs the contracts, that is in charge of tracking them and making sure they are correctly fulfilled,” the document read, according to El Mundo. The EU’s vaccination programme, already lagging behind Britain, Israel and the United States, has hit further snags in the past week as pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and AstraZeneca announced planned deliveries would be severely delayed. Meanwhile, the number of Spaniards willing to receive a shot as soon as it becomes available has risen to nearly 73% from around 40% a month ago, according to an official poll by the Centre for Sociological Studies (CIS). Editorials published on Thursday in conservative-leading El Mundo and left-wing El Pais, Spain’s two biggest newspapers, criticised the bloc’s handling of the vaccine program. “Compared with the action of other executives, the EU has been slow to act and signed contracts (with suppliers) later, which is now proving to be a problem,” El Pais wrote. Data released on Wednesday showed Spain had administered some 1.4 million doses, about 78% of its current stocks. Spain’s cumulative infections now total more than 2.7 million and the death toll is more than 57,000.

[JackieH]

twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1354794491807465472

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	JackieH
	twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1354794491807465472

I would take councils advise rather than rely on what David says, been there done that.

[HickvonFrick]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I would take councils advise rather than rely on what David says, been there done that.

Given the lack of knowledge of the full terms used, the definitions and the jurisdiction there is no way any 3rd party can make definitive conclusions.

[Dinivan]

	Quote:	Mikers
	So the EU is implementing its new set of rules allowing blocking of exports if wished by a nation https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-vaccine-plant Will be interesting to see if this is actually carried out though. If the EU were really to stop vaccines the UK has a contract for and simply decide it will use those itself I would imagine it would have an astonishing effect on how people viewed Europe from inside the UK. Having a a few policies that people disagree with, ok so life goes on. Stopping vaccines which will save people's lives so they can use them themselves by ignoring a contractual agreement, I mean, wow.

Do you think anyone in the EU cares anymore about what Britons think? They're out. They're no longer EU citizens.

The EU position is very reasonable. AZ said it was going to do its best to deliver a certain amount of jabs. Then they say they're gonna deliver !75%! fewer vaccines, and they blame it on 'bad luck', literally. Fair enough the EU says, but have they really done their best to meet their contract?

In particular, has AZ shipped vaccines abroad? And also, did the AZ contract signed with the EU include the UK plants which were indeed partly financed by the EU?

It's a very reasonable request to want answers to those questions.

[Dinivan]

	Quote:	Mikers
	So the EU is implementing its new set of rules allowing blocking of exports if wished by a nation https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-vaccine-plant Will be interesting to see if this is actually carried out though. If the EU were really to stop vaccines the UK has a contract for and simply decide it will use those itself I would imagine it would have an astonishing effect on how people viewed Europe from inside the UK. Having a a few policies that people disagree with, ok so life goes on. Stopping vaccines which will save people's lives so they can use them themselves by ignoring a contractual agreement, I mean, wow.

I think it will. Switzerland will be spared because Moderna is produced here. The EU has wide powers in case of a major crisis, and some governments want the EU to invoke article 122 (?) to go even further than implement export restrictions and intervene the suppliers or even force them to share their patents with other labs, like BioNTech has done with Sanofi in partnership.

Could be bad for the UK especially if there's a new strain, as the AstraZeneca vaccine can't be easily adapted unlike BioNTech / Moderna and soon Curevac which is also promising

In other news, apparently AZ is now willing to publish most of the contract. It is also backtracking from its claim, and it may be able to supply the 80 million jabs (or close to) that it had early promised