The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[amogles]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I think Germany would be an unacceptable choice, they tried to run Europe twice before. France is ultimately run by the lorry drivers so that would be a no from me.

I think especially the present German leadership, and also the present French leadership are unpalatable to many.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	amogles
	I think especially the present German leadership, and also the present French leadership are unpalatable to many.

The problem from a "balance of powers in Europe" POV is, France is now the only nuclear power. In order for the EU to counter Russia if necessary, it would make sense if Germany became one, too. But of course that can't happen, which creates quite a problem and seems likely to deepen the EU's dependance on the US.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The problem from a "balance of powers in Europe" POV is, France is now the only nuclear power. In order for the EU to counter Russia if necessary, it would make sense if Germany became one, too. But of course that can't happen, which creates quite a problem and seems likely to deepen the EU's dependance on the US.

But of course. On a different thread some folks here denied that EU is dependant on the US in regards to military defense thus their foreign politics which is so dependant on their current leadership might affect us.
I would not give up this partnership for the illusory promises coming from EU.
EU has promised a lot of things, but the reality is some are more equals than others. Wouldn't put past them to dump us like trash when convenient.

[fatmanfilms]

1000 EU Finance firms to set up offices in the UK. Sounds like a benefit to me
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56...A7t3kVNPhPZj9I

[greenmount]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	1000 EU Finance firms to set up offices in the UK. Sounds like a benefit to me https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56...A7t3kVNPhPZj9I

Weren't they free to set up offices before? What's the rush?

Reminded me of something I read a while ago - UK is actively encouraging entrepreneurs in IT to set up business there. It is laughable to have opportunities and financial stimulants in the UK post-Brexit and not everywhere in the EU if you decide to. Unsere Ursula sleeps tight.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The problem from a "balance of powers in Europe" POV is, France is now the only nuclear power. In order for the EU to counter Russia if necessary, it would make sense if Germany became one, too. But of course that can't happen..

Why?

	Quote:
	..which creates quite a problem and seems likely to deepen the EU's dependance on the US.

Biden will hardly support the idea of a ton of NATO investments. He will continue with what Trump started just will not own up to it. The US presence in NATO will imho reduce. My 2c. Why wouldn't it..

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Weren't they free to set up offices before? What's the rush? Reminded me of something I read a while ago - UK is actively encouraging entrepreneurs in IT to set up business there. It is laughable to have opportunities and financial stimulants in the UK post-Brexit and not everywhere in the EU if you decide to. Unsere Ursula sleeps tight.

They thought the UK did not matter to the EU! Clearly as the UK will exit COVID restrictions fairly shortly due to the vaccine. They have woken up to the fact that the UK has an unfair advantage.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	They thought the UK did not matter to the EU! Clearly as the UK will exit COVID restrictions fairly shortly due to the vaccine. They have woken up to the fact that the UK has an unfair advantage.

Fairly shortly? You haven’t been paying attention.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	They thought the UK did not matter to the EU! Clearly as the UK will exit COVID restrictions fairly shortly due to the vaccine. They have woken up to the fact that the UK has an unfair advantage.

Why would it even be considered "unfair"?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	Why?

Why what, why can't become G. a nuclear power? Because history, and because public opinion (domestic as well as in the rest of the developed world) wouldn't allow it.

The WW2 winner nations have successfully managed to demonise G.'s past while sweeping their own genocides and other comparably horrible atrocities under the carpet.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Why what, why can't become G. a nuclear power? Because history, and because public opinion (domestic as well as in the rest of the developed world) wouldn't allow it. The WW2 winner nations have successfully managed to demonise G.'s past while sweeping their own genocides and other comparably horrible atrocities under the carpet.

Ok. Well, demonizing Germany was deserved, but using it to fake their innocence as per other attrocities (pawning CZ to Hitler 1st and then letting Stalin fake "freeing" CZ and later annex) and their own domestic shinenigans were indeed cr÷p. The carpet rot away though and stuff comes out, hence the lack of trust towards the EU. I think public opinion in Germany might not be so firm, it gets manipulated left and right.

[marton]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Weren't they free to set up offices before? What's the rush? Reminded me of something I read a while ago - UK is actively encouraging entrepreneurs in IT to set up business there. It is laughable to have opportunities and financial stimulants in the UK post-Brexit and not everywhere in the EU if you decide to. Unsere Ursula sleeps tight.

Before Brexit, EU firms could do business in the UK without physical offices there.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	1000 EU Finance firms to set up offices in the UK. Sounds like a benefit to me https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56...A7t3kVNPhPZj9I

Having permission (once granted) to do business isn't the same as actually setting up shop. An address may do.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Why what, why can't become G. a nuclear power? Because history, and because public opinion (domestic as well as in the rest of the developed world) wouldn't allow it. The WW2 winner nations have successfully managed to demonise G.'s past while sweeping their own genocides and other comparably horrible atrocities under the carpet.

I think Germany had also done extremely well marketing itself as a peaceful nation you can trust and do business with and whose foreign policy is essentially business oriented , and which considers its own army a joke .

I don’t think anybody in Germany would wish for it to be otherwise .

Nor anybody else in Europe .

It’s just that the German government doesn’t understand that being the official nice guy is not a blank check to be allowed to force your will on others

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	amogles
	I think Germany had also done extremely well marketing itself as a peaceful nation you can trust and do business with and whose foreign policy is essentially business oriented , and which considers its own army a joke .

No doubt. It may help to keep in mind that countries have no friends, just interests and temporary allies.

Just to clarify, I'm not saying Germany's demonisation is unwarranted. But they're not the only ones, for these countries Germany's a convenient scapegoat.

	Quote:	amogles
	I don’t think anybody in Germany would wish for it to be otherwise . Nor anybody else in Europe . It’s just that the German government doesn’t understand that being the official nice guy is not a blank check to be allowed to force your will on others

That's the $64k question, was it misinterpretation or a test balloon? You may remember Peter Struck's claim that "Germany's security is also defended at the Hindukush" from almost two decades ago. You can't be Mr Nice Guy if you want to exert power (the US are a good example, also WRT washing over misdeeds). Unless Germany takes the route to real military power, the EU and Europe will remain subordinate to the US, and the EU will lack the power to actively counter Russia or foster peace.

I'm fine with the status quo, and I don't think a German power grab would be good for us. Switzerland's been faring quite well since abandoning France as their domineering force and becoming what is in many ways a US subordinate.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Switzerland's been faring quite well since abandoning France as their domineering force and becoming what is in many ways a US subordinate.

You're talking ancient history here. It's been a few years since Napoleon dropped by and a lot has happened since then, including other "domineering" influences!

[amogles]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	That's the $64k question, was it misinterpretation or a test balloon? You may remember Peter Struck's claim that "Germany's security is also defended at the Hindukush" from almost two decades ago. You can't be Mr Nice Guy if you want to exert power (the US are a good example, also WRT washing over misdeeds).

I think in that particular situation, Germany's hand was forced. You can't go around picking up the lucrative contracts and basking in peace while other nations send their sons to be killed defending that peace. So Germany basically had no choice but to actually have some token involvement at an actual theatre of war. Either that, or Germany's leaders were not willing to take on that particular argument and explain why they weren't doing it. Which would have taken some actual chutzpah. But they found it easier to send a token bunch of soldiers. There was no real leadership there and no real strategy. A bit like the Eu really.

It was ironic that it was a government involving the super pacifist and super anti-military Greens that actually signed that one off.

[John William]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	I'm fine with the status quo, and I don't think a German power grab would be good for us. Switzerland's been faring quite well since abandoning France as their domineering force and becoming what is in many ways a US subordinate.

No Urs Max you've got it wrong because the definitive history of Switzerland, as told by Jacob Rees-Mogg
& the ERG is that Switzerland became a vassal state of the EU, thanks to Switzerland's trading relationship
with the EU through EFTA, the ECJ ( European Court of Justice ) being the final & binding arbiter in disputes
between the EU & Switzerland & thus becoming an EU rule taker rather than a rule maker.


Anyway that´s Moggys opinion on the matter.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	You're talking ancient history here. It's been a few years since Napoleon dropped by and a lot has happened since then, including other "domineering" influences!

What's the Lateinische Münzunion? Who controls the money controls the economy.

	Quote:	amogles
	It was ironic that it was a government involving the super pacifist and super anti-military Greens that actually signed that one off.

Very much so. Do you remember if there was a UN mandate? I seem to remember that there was none.
Lack of one would have made it an act of aggression, and turned the Bundeswehr from a defending force to an attacking one.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	marton
	Before Brexit, EU firms could do business in the UK without physical offices there.

Then good for them if they decided to open offices there. London is/still will be an important financial centre so why shouldn't they?
I think the biggest challenge for UK (and to a lesser extent for EU too, because it was never as polarised and vitriolic there) will be to get out of this war mentality and continue to collaborate and to maintain economic relations. I wonder how will that be possible if even prestigious political analysts are commenting along the line of UK being treated unfairly? Which is only true if you truly believe UK should be given what they want, always and under all conditions. As if it's their natural right.
I would also expect the tabloid press to move on onto other, more urgent subjects . Did Kate wear the proper hat? Was William happy to see the Queen? etc etc etc. Brexit is over, the us vs. them mentality should be replaced by a more mature and well balanced "phase" at one point or another. People were constantly told whom they should hate, OK, we've seen how efficient that was, now they got what they wanted time to move on.