The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[John William]

	Quote:	marton
	It is an open thread, please do post positive news and outcomes from Brexit - all are welcome to post. It is looking like there will be higher UK inflation, followed by higher bank rates followed by the £ exchange rate improving against the CHF which will, in turn, be good news for some of us.

I would like to see more posts by Expats highlighting the contrast between the UK and where they live in Continental Europe.
In answer to the 'headlines' that dominate the news in the UK like last weekends 'Panic at the Petrol Stations' where Expats can respond by saying there's no 'Panic at the Petrol Stations' where I live in Geneva, Zurich, France, Germany, etc and no politicians over here berating the shortage of HGV drivers, 'What shortage' and my supermarkets not suffering from any delays in Fruit & Veg and I see no 'empty shelves in my neck of the woods, so what's up in the UK ????

[JackieH]

The extreme Cons are increasingly calling for article 16 to be triggered.

Does anyone have any idea of the consequences that would have?

[JackieH]

David Davis is now saying the shortages are entirely the fault of businesses for poor preparation! Just appalling and disgusting. No downsides at all from Brexit at all, he said again and again- only considerable upsides!

But the most bizarre thing now, is the absolute contradictions coming from the Tories. On the one hand, saying that shortages have NOTHING to do with Brexit, at all

and on the other

that shortages due to Brexit are 'good' and an upside for UK, because it will 'rebalance the economy' - as supply chains will collapse and we will all be back buying direct from the farm gates (Chris Loader Tory MP at Conference). And that higher wages are good (well I'd agree actually) - but without mentionning this will lead to higher costs and inflation, which would cancel higher wages. I thought that inflation was the 'bête noire' of the Tory Party, no?

Just unbelievable nonsense.

[JackieH]

Even Laura Künsberg has lost patience and can see right through him ...

https://fb.watch/8s1jZQ0qO5/


27 lorry drivers have applied for Visas to go to UK to hel alleviate the 100.000 shortage! (some say 127 - makes little difference).

[Castro]

	Quote:	marton
	It is an open thread, please do post positive news and outcomes from Brexit - all are welcome to post.

Good news, we'll get to see more of grandma and grandpa

	Quote:
	Retired British expats ‘abandon Spain in droves’ Retired British expats have been leaving Spain “in droves” because of Brexit, including holiday hotspot Costa del Sol. Travel experts have seen a decline due to more immigration rules introduced after the UK left the European Union. Robert Barnhardt, who runs an estate agency in Fuengirola, said many retired Britons have put their villas and apartments on the market to sell up in Spain. UK citizens can only visit Spain without a visa for up to 90 days for tourism and businesses purposes. Mr Barnhardt said many pensioners used to love spending six months of the year in Spain. But now he said this is impossible under the new rules. Full story

[JackieH]

Should be some good deals to pick up for EU and CH then

	Quote:	JackieH
	Even Laura Künsberg has lost patience and can see right through him ... https://fb.watch/8s1jZQ0qO5/ 27 lorry drivers have applied for Visas to go to UK to hel alleviate the 100.000 shortage! (some say 127 - makes little difference).

I read today in the Dutch news that Holland has a 10'000 driver shortage. Looks like it's not a Brexit problem but more a problem that nobody wants to do an underpaid job.

[JackieH]

Indeed, there are shortages of HGV drivers. The question is, will those available choose to work in better conditions and salaries, proper contracts- in Schengen and without all the hassles, red tapes and delays at borders, and nearer to home-

or in the UK that has treated them so badly and kicked them out?

[greenmount]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	I read today in the Dutch news that Holland has a 10'000 driver shortage. Looks like it's not a Brexit problem but more a problem that nobody wants to do an underpaid job.

Wonder if it's only the money though. Truth to be told it is not easy to be on the road all day long, sleep in parking places, lately even afraid of being attacked and killed by people with machetes in some places in France....nah, as long as it doesn't get safer and better payed.......the story with a 3 month visa is laughable, indeed. All countries in EU need these drivers.

	Quote:	greenmount
	Wonder if it's only the money though. Truth to be told it is not easy to be on the road all day long, sleep in parking places, lately even afraid of being attacked and killed by people with machetes in some places in France....nah, as long as it doesn't get safer and better payed.......the story with a 3 month visa is laughable, indeed. All countries in EU need these drivers.

Agree. It's not an attractive job. Maybe it changes in a period of mass unemployment.

[JackieH]

I certainly hope so, but it will take a while. So in the short-term, what is the UK going to do?

But conditions are much better , and much easier (no ports, no red tape, no big delays, no massive holding car parks as in Kent) in continental Europe- so drivers will probably not choose to go to UK now- especially as they have just been kicked out, and without any respect either.

[marton]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	Agree. It's not an attractive job. Maybe it changes in a period of mass unemployment.

In most west European countries there is not a big difference between job vacancies and the numbers of unemployed so mass unemployment is not in the foreseeable future.

In the UK today according to Government statistics, there are around one million job vacancies and around 1.4 million unemployed, around half a million of those unemployed were unemployed for over a year and so probably are not actively seeking jobs.

	Quote:	marton
	In most west European countries there is not a big difference between job vacancies and the numbers of unemployed so mass unemployment is not in the foreseeable future. In the UK today according to Government statistics, there are around one million job vacancies and around 1.4 million unemployed, around half a million of those unemployed were unemployed for over a year and so probably are not actively seeking jobs.

Just stop all unemployment benefits and the problem solves itself.

I love how I can solve big political problems, while sitting on my sofa with a beer

[JackieH]

Yes, of course- long-term unemployed with no qualifications will be come experienced HGV drivers to transport hazardous materials in days- brain surgeons too and will fill the gaps in staffing in oncology radiography by next week. Klar.

[bowlie]

If I was a school leaver I doubt I would be looking for a job driving trucks (of any size). In addition to all the reasons already mentioned there is the hidden elephant that the industry is pushing for semi and fully automated (driverless) vehicles. Not likely this decade, but definitely this century.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	bowlie
	If I was a school leaver I doubt I would be looking for a job driving trucks (of any size). In addition to all the reasons already mentioned there is the hidden elephant that the industry is pushing for semi and fully automated (driverless) vehicles. Not likely this decade, but definitely this century.

Although basically I agree with you here, fortunately, I have heard of people who really love this job. As weird as it may seem to us. They're probably very rare birds and most others are doing it out of necessity, but yeah, there are folks who would voluntarily choose this profession.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Although basically I agree with you here, fortunately, I have heard of people who really love this job. As weird as it may seem to us. They're probably very rare birds and most others are doing it out of necessity, but yeah, there are folks who would voluntarily choose this profession.

Of course, but with diminishing effect as technology takes over. And this isn’t just the UK, it is Europe-wide. Likely to impact the Americans too.

Efficiency will of course rise as hours no longer governed by driver’s circadian cycles

[JackieH]

Great article about Johnson from the Spectator

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...7b9d41a87aad33

[JackieH]

	Quote:	JackieH
	Yes, of course- long-term unemployed with no qualifications will be come experienced HGV drivers to transport hazardous materials in days- brain surgeons too and will fill the gaps in staffing in oncology radiography by next week. Klar.

Pachyderm, groan again if you wish. But are you aware that some hospitals are currently rationing cancer radiography treatments because of shortage of staff? And there is a huge concern about importing isotopes due to Brexit? That is REAL - your groans will make little difference.

THIS here is the reality

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-...shire-58736475


In the meantime, the EU is stepping ahead with offers of 5 year visas for non EU HGV drivers- and not the 3 months up to Christmas Johnson was proposing. The UK needs about 100000 and it seems 27 have applied (some say 127 ... makes little difference).

[Necromancer]

	Quote:	JackieH
	Even Laura Künsberg has lost patience and can see right through him ... https://fb.watch/8s1jZQ0qO5/ 27 lorry drivers have applied for Visas to go to UK to hel alleviate the 100.000 shortage! (some say 127 - makes little difference).

The whining, hand wringing and doom and gloom from left wingers .. the bbc and it’s printed voice , the guardian ,has more than a touch of wishful thinking , if not fake news about it.
I am in England at present been here 2 weeks now..and having driven up to Brum, then down through the Cotswolds and am now in Bath.
No petrol shortage, the shelves in the supermarkets are full. No doubt panic buyers have caused problems in some areas but they are way overstated.