The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[mirfield]

	Quote:	marton
	Democratic decisions can be reversed

I doubt this one can.

Even if there was the will for UK to (re)join EU or a CU, they'd hardly have the influence (and special deals) they held before.

More likely they'd be a weak laughing stock when trying to negotiate; "What are you going to do? Leave? "

[bowlie]

	Quote:	mirfield
	I doubt this one can. Even if there was the will for UK to (re)join EU or a CU, they'd hardly have the influence (and special deals) they held before. More likely they'd be a weak laughing stock when trying to negotiate; "What are you going to do? Leave? "

I disagree. Both Brussels and many of the Member States would welcome the UK back into the fold, perhaps even with previous opt-outs back in place.

Brussels knows that the EU is much stronger on the International stage with the UK in. Many of the smaller states such as the Benelux and Scandinavians would love to have the UK back, weakening the influence of Germany and France.

The latter two might resist but with Merkel gone and a change of government likely in Paris their eyes are going to be focussed internally over the next few years.

The real question is if the British electorate would vote to return. All it would really take is to reduce the abstention rate by a fraction and reminding them that their lack of Harry Potter’s toys is all BoJo’s fault.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	bowlie
	I disagree. Both Brussels and many of the Member States would welcome the UK back into the fold, perhaps even with previous opt-outs back in place.

It is not up to Brussels and the member states.... treaty decisions are not within the realm of the commission, the council nor the parliament.

Do you really think that referenda in Ireland, France, Denmark and possibly The Netherlands would succeed as well as getting the 38 national and local parliaments to agree? Because unless the UK was willing to accept all the current criteria including the Euro, that is what would be required to avoid such a situation.

I doubt very much that Ireland would even be willing to hold such a referendum, whatever about France. It would give SF an incredible platform - Irish voters deciding the fate of the UK and I can't see any Irish PM agreeing to that.

I suspect BREXIT really was the decision of a generation or possibly even longer.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	It is not up to Brussels and the member states.... treaty decisions are not within the realm of the commission, the council nor the parliament. Do you really think that referenda in Ireland, France, Denmark and possibly The Netherlands would succeed as well as getting the 38 national and local parliaments to agree? Because unless the UK was willing to accept all the current criteria including the Euro, that is what would be required to avoid such a situation. I doubt very much that Ireland would even be willing to hold such a referendum, whatever about France. It would give SF an incredible platform - Irish voters deciding the fate of the UK and I can't see any Irish PM agreeing to that. I suspect BREXIT really was the decision of a generation or possibly even longer.

Well, obviously, I’m more optimistic than you are. But yes, I think it is possible because it would benefit all of the above. No hard border with Ireland, for example.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Do you really think that referenda in Ireland, France, Denmark and possibly The Netherlands would succeed as well as getting the 38 national and local parliaments to agree? Because unless the UK was willing to accept all the current criteria including the Euro, that is what would be required to avoid such a situation.

Plus Spain demanding Gibraltar.

[marton]

	Quote:	mirfield
	I doubt this one can. Even if there was the will for UK to (re)join EU or a CU, they'd hardly have the influence (and special deals) they held before. More likely they'd be a weak laughing stock when trying to negotiate; "What are you going to do? Leave? "

There was a democratic decision to leave the EU and we saw how many years it took to make that happen and yet the details are still in dispute.

It is perfectly possible for the UK to have a vote to reverse the decision.
It would be a second step for the UK government to try to implement that decision which would be very complex and maybe not succeed. It can take a very long time, Turkey has been negotiating to join for 16 years and is not really very close to success.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	marton
	There was a democratic decision to leave the EU and we saw how many years it took to make that happen and yet the details are still in dispute. It is perfectly possible for the UK to have a vote to reverse the decision. It would be a second step for the UK government to try to implement that decision which would be very complex and maybe not succeed. It can take a very long time, Turkey has been negotiating to join for 16 years and is not really very close to success.

Turkey still has the death Penalty. They have a long way to go to meet EU basic standards. The UK, on the other hand, already meets those standards - they did help establish them!

[Flakk]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Turkey still has the death Penalty. They have a long way to go to meet EU basic standards. The UK, on the other hand, already meets those standards - they did help establish them!

If the UK leaves the human rights convention that will mean they are also not compliant with EU human rights standards. Perhaps a 50% chance of that happening imo.

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	marton
	It is perfectly possible for the UK to have a vote to reverse the decision.

There's no realistic possibility of that happening until a new generation of voters emerges that has no memory of the 4-year chaos following the refusal to accept the result of the last one. Any party proposing that we go through that nightmare again any time in the next 15-20 years would be doomed to electoral failure.

We've heard a lot of Remain supporters complaining that such a big constitutional change should require the support of two-thirds of those who vote, or more than 50% of the total electorate. I wonder if they will insist on these conditions if another referendum is held someday?

[BritS]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	There's no realistic possibility of that happening until a new generation of voters emerges that has no memory of the 4-year chaos following the refusal to accept the result of the last one. Any party proposing that we go through that nightmare again any time in the next 15-20 years would be doomed to electoral failure. We've heard a lot of Remain supporters complaining that such a big constitutional change should require the support of two-thirds of those who vote, or more than 50% of the total electorate. I wonder if they will insist on these conditions if another referendum is held someday?

I do chuckle at this position. As if the unmitigated disaster following the vote, through the current phases of Brexit implementation would have been so much better if only the remainers had cheered up.

Project Fear was always Project Reality - we knew it, the Leave campaign knew it, the only people that didn't were the hoodwinked Leave voters.

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	BritS
	I do chuckle at this position. As if the unmitigated disaster following the vote, through the current phases of Brexit implementation would have been so much better if only the remainers had cheered up. Project Fear was always Project Reality - we knew it, the Leave campaign knew it, the only people that didn't were the hoodwinked Leave voters.

Which, typically, is an utter travesty of the point I was making. I've never heard the Remain side accused of not having "cheered up" -- and it's certainly not what I said. But I do think it's a bit rich for some people to have spent 4 years paralysing the democratic process and then moaning that Brexit had created... a crisis of democracy. Yes, it was a disaster, but who caused it?

What should certainly NOT make you chuckle is the fact that the parliamentary obstructions put in place by the entire opposition and about 20 Tory MPs destroyed several proposals to have a much softer Brexit than the one we ended up with. Yet these parliamentary shenanigans spanning 4 years are apparently seen as heroic resistance.

As for 'Project Fear', where does Osborne's despicable warnings of the need for a 'Punishment Budget' fit in with that? And the warnings that the stock market would enter a generational decline that would sabotage pensions? These threats were squarely aimed at older people whom he knew full well were disproportionately in favour of leaving the EU. Reprehensible scaremongering.

Still on Project Fear, what about Donald Tusk's statement (and this is a direct quote given to Bild) that "Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also Western political civilisation in its entirety."

So please don't get all preachy about 'Project Fear'. Thanks.

[BritS]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	Which, typically, is an utter travesty of the point I was making. I've never heard the Remain side accused of not having "cheered up" -- and it's certainly not what I said. But I do think it's a bit rich for some people to have spent 4 years paralysing the democratic process and then moaning that Brexit had created... a crisis of democracy. Yes, it was a disaster, but who caused it? What should certainly NOT make you chuckle is the fact that the parliamentary obstructions put in place by the entire opposition and about 20 Tory MPs destroyed several proposals to have a much softer Brexit than the one we ended up with. Yet these parliamentary shenanigans spanning 4 years are apparently seen as heroic resistance. As for 'Project Fear', where does Osborne's despicable warnings of the need for a 'Punishment Budget' fit in with that? And the warnings that the stock market would enter a generational decline that would sabotage pensions? These threats were squarely aimed at older people whom he knew full well were disproportionately in favour of leaving the EU. Reprehensible scaremongering. Still on Project Fear, what about Donald Tusk's statement (and this is a direct quote given to Bild) that "Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also Western political civilisation in its entirety." So please don't get all preachy about 'Project Fear'. Thanks.

Blah, blah, not our fault, we take no responsibility for this mess.

[mossie]

They sign an agreement then down the road decide they signed a crappy agreement. What a bunch of idiotic incompetent morons. Then again when did the British ever sign an agreement and keep to it in good faith.

[NotAllThere]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	Which, typically, is an utter travesty of the point I was making. I've never heard the Remain side accused of not having "cheered up"

You've never heard the word "remoaner"? Kind of implicit that remainers are moaners and not very cheerful.

	Quote:
	But I do think it's a bit rich for some people to have spent 4 years paralysing the democratic process and then moaning that Brexit had created... a crisis of democracy. Yes, it was a disaster, but who caused it?

And there you go. Remain side are all a bunch of miserable uncheerful moaners. The four years was all done within the British democratic process. Your point is... pointless really.

Who caused the disaster? Primary cause was Cameron for bringing in the referendum in the first place - and then resigning. Other guilty parties would include Boris, who changed sides, never expecting a win, to boost his own popularity. A bunch of MPs led by Rees-Mogg, consistently blocking any softening of Brexit. The British voters for not giving May the majority she needed. May for going to the country and losing most of her majority.

And Brexiters for voting for a disaster of course!

Completely blameless are the remainers.

[BritS]

	Quote:	NotAllThere
	Completely blameless are the remainers.

Nonsense, we are totally at fault for not "believing enough".

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	There's no realistic possibility of that happening until a new generation of voters emerges that has no memory of the 4-year chaos following the refusal to accept the result of the last one. Any party proposing that we go through that nightmare again any time in the next 15-20 years would be doomed to electoral failure. We've heard a lot of Remain supporters complaining that such a big constitutional change should require the support of two-thirds of those who vote, or more than 50% of the total electorate. I wonder if they will insist on these conditions if another referendum is held someday?

It’s always very dangerous to under estimate how quickly public opinion can change and in which direction it will go. Much was promised and voters seem to believe they voted for all kinds of things. Now you can string people along for a while, but even the dumbest of people eventually realize when they have been had. And that realization comes quicker when it hits their pocket and their stomach.

My parents were typical Irish Catholics of their time and if you’d told me as a youngster that they’d one day be in favour of and vote for divorce, abortion and gay marriage, I’d have said you were crazy. And yet that is what they did and were proud of their decision.

In Ireland, I have seen voters:
- Vote to give UK citizens the vote in Irish elections
- Vote to introduce abortion
- Vote to introduce divorce
- Vote to introduce gay marriage
Now to put that into perspective, in order to get the Lisbon treaty accepted in Ireland, the revised treaty had to include provisions that prevented the EU from introducing any legislation in those areas….

In addition, I have seen SF go from having no seat in the Irish parliament to begin the biggest party and the two old parties having to form joint party governments and even discuss a merger of their parties.

At this stage, even the DUP accept that if there was an election Now they’d loose Northern Ireland. So I think it is likely there will be a border poll within the next 20 years and that will be the dissolution of the UK. Which in turn will lead to a lot of soul searching in Scotland and England.

I suspect the UK is only just at the beginning of a long and painful process and how it will turn out is anyone’s guess.

[Necromancer]

I am more of a remainer than a remoaner…
I still retain my English sense of humour however .

[JackieH]

Well, this makes me quite ashamed of my selfish generation. I am glad I can look my adult children, teenage grandchildren, family and young friends in the eye, and tell me that this 70 year old DID NOT VOTE FOR THIS. Well I don't have to tell them, they know.


''Brexit: Majority of older Leave voters say significant economic damage is 'price worth paying', finds YouGov

71 per cent of over-65s would accept a big economic hit – and half are willing for family members to lose their jobs''

I imagine some expats, too, secure in their job and comfortable life and un-affected by the effect of their vote to leave, feel the same.

[marton]

	Quote:	JackieH
	Well, this makes me quite ashamed of my selfish generation. I am glad I can look my adult children, teenage grandchildren, family and young friends in the eye, and tell me that this 70 year old DID NOT VOTE FOR THIS. Well I don't have to tell them, they know. ''Brexit: Majority of older Leave voters say significant economic damage is 'price worth paying', finds YouGov 71 per cent of over-65s would accept a big economic hit – and half are willing for family members to lose their jobs'' I imagine some expats, too, secure in their job and comfortable life and un-affected by the effect of their vote to leave, feel the same.

I did not vote for this either but if I want to look my adult children in the eye then I have to stand on a box; I probably fed them too well when they were young.

Do you have a source for this YouGov study? I suspect it is from 2017 when Brexit was new and shiny.
Likely today's over 65s will have other views now pensioners are having to return from EU countries, reports of ahortages in areas from petrol to food and the Bank of England threatening to raise rates.

[JackieH]

I will have to stand on a box too - only one grand-daughter is still about 2 cm shorter than me!

Yes, from 2017 - and still so so relevant now. And yes, I do wonder how reality is hitting them- although it seems there are an awful lot of heads in sand. 2017 when they said it was all 'project fear' and that there would be NO downsides (Gove) - and now turning out to be Project Reality (on speed).