The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[bowlie]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	It's a cynical approach, no doubt. But after Brexit, BoJo's breaking the agreement, and AUKUS, perhaps the UK shouldn't expect much goodwill from Macron for a good while. On top of that, and like BoJo, Macron will use the situation for domestic political grandstanding, I believe elections are on the horizon. Perhaps the first question should be why the illegal immigrants chose France in the first place? I'd guess that with a large group of legal residents who look (somewhat) like them already in place it's much easier to hide. Relatives may even provided a place to stay for a while. And then WRT heading on to the UK, of course the grass is always greener on the other side.

France is the route to the UK. Despite being offered asylum in France they are reluctant as their understanding is that they would be sent back to their country of entry into the EU.

If the UK had remained an EU member state they would be able to return these refugees to Greece, or Italy, or ….

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	bowlie
	If the UK had remained an EU member state they would be able to return these refugees to Greece, or Italy, or ….

Even when we were in the UK, this almost never actually happened -- or not without tortuous legal shenanigans -- despite the EU guidelines.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	Even when we were in the UK, this almost never actually happened -- or not without tortuous legal shenanigans -- despite the EU guidelines.

Why is that?

For example CH and Austria both have no Schengen area border and are landlocked, so in theory most arrivals should have passed through at least one other country and placed the request there. In 2017 27% and 36% of their outgoing transfer requests were granted, so it's not that the Dublin system didn't work for those two. For the UK only 5% were granted in that year, clearly a much lower rate, but the question is why. Perhaps the UK was indeed their first destination?

The UK sent 2.1k of its requests (some 40% of its total) to Italy, less than 3% got granted. Switzerland sent 4231 and got 23% granted. AT didn't report outgoing transfers, but Germany got 9% of its 22k requests granted. So, it doesn't look like the reason for the UK's low percentage is on the Italian side.



ETA, Correction:
I misspoke. What I call "granted requests" above are actual outgoing transfers that took place in 2017. The corresponding request may have been submitted in 2017 or not.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	Even when we were in the UK, this almost never actually happened -- or not without tortuous legal shenanigans -- despite the EU guidelines.

And yet it works for the other members states. Of course they are applying the FMOP rules and are not allowing illegal immigrants once caught back into the community….

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	Flakk
	…and France took 436,000 refugees in 2020.

Where did this ludicrous figure come from?

They may have "taken" i.e. found themselves lumbered with X number of migrants [not refugees until classified as such] but how many of those X number of migrants stayed in France?

Almost no migrants arrive in France directly from Africa/Middle East. They arrive in France after a journey through several other countries, and they don't want to stay in France either. Many are en route to Calais or Germany. They are interested only in heading for what they perceive as rich countries who will look after them.

Just like the "27 year old shepherd" from Syria interviewed yesterday who opined that he wanted to get to England in order to be trained to become a doctor. Even if a Syrian shepherd had the nous and the time to learn English and go through A Levels and get a highly competitive Medicine university place, how will he afford to pay for all this? They are deluded, as are their army of apologists.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	Where did this ludicrous figure come from? They may have "taken" i.e. found themselves lumbered with X number of migrants [not refugees until classified as such] but how many of those X number of migrants stayed in France? Almost no migrants arrive in France directly from Africa/Middle East. They arrive in France after a journey through several other countries, and they don't want to stay in France either. Many are en route to Calais or Germany. They are interested only in heading for what they perceive as rich countries who will look after them. Just like the "27 year old shepherd" from Syria interviewed yesterday who opined that he wanted to get to England in order to be trained to become a doctor. Even if a Syrian shepherd had the nous and the time to learn English and go through A Levels and get a highly competitive Medicine university place, how will he afford to pay for all this? They are deluded, as are their army of apologists.

The last figures I have is France 407k, UK 133k…

[TonyClifton]

	Quote:	notallthere
	stop projecting your own bitterness tony. I'm not left wing, nor bitter, and i expect this forum to die before i do. I'm sure i'm not the only expat brit in that category. Maybe we should have a poll.

It's been FIVE YEARS!!!

	Quote:	rob
	as i'm sure you said after the brexit ref, you lost. Get over it.

	Quote:	marton
	do you mean like the 48% against brexit?

	Quote:	flakk
	funny how you never said that after the 52:48 brexit vote,

	Quote:	jackieh
	and yet you think people in the uk should accept and roll over at 48/52! Bizarre, that!

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	It's been FIVE YEARS!!!

You posted in the Brexit thread 3 days ago

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	Haha! This forum is literally the place where old bitter lefty expat Brits go to die The Brexit vote was five years ago and people still insist on bringing up in relation to yesterday’s vote if anyone needed to get over it

The only reason I pop into this thread is for entertainment - pass the time while I’m waiting for a bus, a train or the kettle to boil, that kind of thing.

Unless you are doing the same, one can only conclude that you are being incredibly selective in your reading material…..

You do realize that the trade deal with Australia has gone south so to speak and that the EU has canceled their trade talks with them. Trading a market of 450m for one of 65m isn’t something many will want to do, so the best possible outcome is a roll over of existing EU trade deals.

The Royal Navy’s aircraft carriers can’t venture out without the protection of the US fleets and even then… their latest achievement would appear to be the launching of a submarine of the flight deck! The Chinese must be giggling in their boots.

Anyway with the number of realms decreasing a strike force is not a concern… Barbados just left BTW.

Just to bring you up to date on a few things…

[Biro]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The Royal Navy’s aircraft carriers can’t venture out without the protection of the US fleets and even then… their latest achievement would appear to be the launching of a submarine of the flight deck! The Chinese must be giggling in their boots.

It's only the UK which talks up how wonderful their woefully ill equipped armed forces are, defence cannot be done at half price, either you spend on it or you don't, any half measures are a complete waste of money.


Who else believes the NHS is the best thing next to sliced bread apart from the UK.


It's pure rhetoric that comes from the UK these days and as Putin once said "it's becomming an insignificant little island", like it or not

[Axa]

	Quote:	komsomolez
	Can you guys take your boring Brexit shit elsewhere, so that we can focus on the same old boring Covid certificate stuff here?

Same for Putin and Chinese submarines

[marton]

No surprise really

	Quote:
	The United States will delay its deal to remove tariffs on UK steel and aluminum because of concerns about post-Brexit trade rules affecting Northern Ireland,

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The last figures I have is France 407k, UK 133k…

Jim's numbers are of the actual number of refugees in a country, not how many arrived last week, or last year or whatever.

Of course not granting asylum applications drives the numbers up

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	No surprise really

For some it will be....

All Irish politics are local in the US. No Republican or Democrat wants to be labeled as the one that broke the GFA. If you talk to Irish-Americans and you will find that they all believed that THEY solved the NI problem. And that's a lot of votes.

[3Wishes]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	...WRT heading on to the UK, of course the grass is always greener on the other side.

I was watching a news report the other day after the big drowning incident with the capsized boat. Some of the migrants in the camp at Calais told the reporters that the UK has always been the target destination, even if they have to cross several EU countries to get there. The reason is they think benefits are better in the UK for families, and some felt they could get along better in English.

[BritS]

	Quote:	3Wishes
	I was watching a news report the other day after the big drowning incident with the capsized boat. Some of the migrants in the camp at Calais told the reporters that the UK has always been the target destination, even if they have to cross several EU countries to get there. The reason is they think benefits are better in the UK for families, and some felt they could get along better in English.

So instead of tacitly drowning helpless people, we could just lower benefits and start speaking German.

[3Wishes]

	Quote:	BritS
	So instead of tacitly drowning helpless people, we could just lower benefits and start speaking German.

I dunno, drowned helpless people sounds easier than learning German. Kidding!!

It's not a stretch to see why so many EU countries let people pass through and don't seem to care.

"If these folks want to move on and live off British taxpayers (who are now not even EU taxpayers), why not let them be someone else's problem?"

[BritS]

	Quote:	3Wishes
	I dunno, drowned helpless people sounds easier than learning German. Kidding!! It's not a stretch to see why so many EU countries let people pass through and don't seem to care. "If these folks want to move on and live off British taxpayers (who are now not even EU taxpayers), why not let them be someone else's problem?"

This is all true, but what is often forgotten, or, if I am more cynical, deliberately misinterpreted by some, is that refugees seeking asylum need not do it at the first safe port they come to. They may choose their destination, and as intimated before, many do due to speaking English, having family in the UK and yes, probably a number think that starting a new life will be easier in the UK.

These are all valid reasons to choose wherever you like as the country you apply for asylum in.

This is codified in international law and anyone suggesting anything to the contrary is wrong or a liar.

What is also conveniently overlooked is that plenty of the countries in between origin and UK take far more refugees by actual number and percentage of population.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	BritS
	So instead of tacitly drowning helpless people, we could just lower benefits and start speaking German.

No what you should have done right from the start is recognise that you simply can't control your borders on your own without cooperation and have negotiated a proper agreement with the EU to replace the Dublin agreement.

And the BS will continue until such time as the UK recognises this.

[BritS]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	No what you should have done right from the start is recognise that you simply can't control your borders on your own without cooperation and have negotiated a proper agreement with the EU to replace the Dublin agreement. And the BS will continue until such time as the UK recognises this.

I tried my best Jim, honest.