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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #30461  
Old 14.05.2022, 10:33
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Another weird attribute of many remainers, the desire for Scotland to become independent in order to somehow punish the country for voting leave. They'd rather see damage to the country than accept the vote of 6 years ago. Sad really.

Whilst the chance of Scotland becoming an independent nation remains a small possibility, the chance of an independent Scotland joining the EU is almost zero, as no one would accept a hard border being put up between England and Scotland.
But 6 years ago Scotland voted against Brexit so let us now accept that

Then Scotland can escape the Brexit damage.
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  #30462  
Old 14.05.2022, 10:47
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Pretending it is easy would be daft. But the Deal was negotiated and signed by the UK, and Johnson and Lord Frost knew the risks (Lord Frost as the Head of the Scottish Whisky association was a staunch remainer, and always fully aware of the dangers to business of leaving the EU). Reminder ''“About 40% of what we export goes to Europe. If we leave the European Union then we are going to see administrative barriers brought up. If there is a Brexit we will lose access to the European Union Free Trade Agreements, that is clear.

“If the UK then will need to renegotiate its own agreements, clearly that is going to take time. Our interest is to be part of the biggest possible market with the fewest possible barriers.

And here comes the punchline: “The European single market gives us that. The European free trade agreements gives us that. Why would we want to depart from that?” said FROST!


Why, why indeed.


But the fact is that the Deal was, as said above, negotiated, agreed and signed by Johnson, Frost and co- and they were fully aware of the dangers- but wanted to 'get Brexit done at any cost'.

https://fb.watch/c-97xowY4r/
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  #30463  
Old 14.05.2022, 12:52
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Why the keyboard warriors on here are gung-ho for a trade war beats me. The idea that the EU imports nothing from the UK ‘apart from 1-2 niche products’ is ridiculous…and visa versa. A lot of peoples livelihoods on both sides of the channel would be endangered.
As to Scottish independence.. why not? I am a big believer in the nation state and if enough people want it they should go for it.
Hopefully then England.. the only country in the western world that presently doesn’t have its own Parliament..would be able to have one.
I also believe, and have said so in this thread, that Scotland could prosper as an independent nation. I also believe in self determination, however there was a referendum only 8 years ago and that should be the end of the matter for a generation. The argument that Brexit changed things is nonsense because there is almost zero prospect of an independent Scotland entering the EU.

An independent Scotland would need enormous reform to prosper, which rather like the UK post Brexit, I don't really see there is the stomach for it. It would be interesting to see how the politics of an independent Scotland would work with a proper left and right instead of the various flavour of socialism currently peddled by the SNP (at the expense of the rest of the UK!).

Also agree with ridiculous notion of these trade rhetoric. Idiots on both sides seem to view trade as a zero sum game.

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Ah here we go again….

Scotland would not need to join the EU to achieve it objectives. It could join EFTA and access the EU market via the EEA agreement. Thus also avoiding having to accept the Euro.

There is even precedence for them to continue using sterling should the wish to do so and there is not a think England could do about it, just as Ireland did in 1922. Having two central banks and governments using the same currency eventually required the BOE to sit down every month with the CBI to agree policy.

Joining the single market favours small countries, all of the small countries have done very well out of it. Even Ireland who started way behind the curve when it joined with the UK in 1974, has caught up - GDP per capita 40% higher than the UK, positive and growing balances of trade for over 30 years and from the end of the last recession to pre-pandemic the reduced the national debt from 124% to 78%.

Beyond your struggling delusions to justify your BREXIT support there is nothing to suggest that Scotland would not be a successful independent state if the decide to do so.
I've not said Scotland couldn't be a successful independent state. I've just said Scotland cannot join either the EU nor EFTA without a hard border across Great Britain. This is unacceptable to both Scotland and rUK which is why under the present circumstances it will never happen.

p.s. Ireland's GDP per capita is inflated and artificial due to the tax avoidance schemes Ireland has been offering to large companies.
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  #30464  
Old 14.05.2022, 13:41
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

and why not? I can imagine Scotland attracting huge amounts of business from EU.
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  #30465  
Old 14.05.2022, 13:46
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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and why not? I can imagine Scotland attracting huge amounts of business from EU.
Aside from the small fact of the matter that about 70% of Scottish trade is done with the rest of the UK, a hard border would split up families and create division. It's simply not going to happen.
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  #30466  
Old 14.05.2022, 13:59
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Aside from the small fact of the matter that about 70% of Scottish trade is done with the rest of the UK, a hard border would split up families and create division. It's simply not going to happen.

A hard border..... ya right, we all know your capabilities when it comes to implementing hard borders: Absolutely Zero.
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  #30467  
Old 14.05.2022, 14:11
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

No-one is saying it would be easy. But long term, it could be done, and the EU would support Scotland all the way, with massive trade coming their way.

Are you totally unaware of how Brexit has deeply divided families? And this especially in regions which have voted clearly against?
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  #30468  
Old 14.05.2022, 20:43
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Are you totally unaware of how Brexit has deeply divided families? And this especially in regions which have voted clearly against?
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  #30469  
Old 14.05.2022, 22:17
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

And if you want to talk about divisions- what do you think is happening all over again in NI!

Many friends and family from there- you should talk to them.
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  #30470  
Old 15.05.2022, 00:40
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I also believe, and have said so in this thread, that Scotland could prosper as an independent nation. I also believe in self determination, however there was a referendum only 8 years ago and that should be the end of the matter for a generation. The argument that Brexit changed things is nonsense because there is almost zero prospect of an independent Scotland entering the EU.

An independent Scotland would need enormous reform to prosper, which rather like the UK post Brexit, I don't really see there is the stomach for it. It would be interesting to see how the politics of an independent Scotland would work with a proper left and right instead of the various flavour of socialism currently peddled by the SNP (at the expense of the rest of the UK!).

Also agree with ridiculous notion of these trade rhetoric. Idiots on both sides seem to view trade as a zero sum game.



I've not said Scotland couldn't be a successful independent state. I've just said Scotland cannot join either the EU nor EFTA without a hard border across Great Britain. This is unacceptable to both Scotland and rUK which is why under the present circumstances it will never happen.

p.s. Ireland's GDP per capita is inflated and artificial due to the tax avoidance schemes Ireland has been offering to large companies.
Ah Tony I knew you come up with that one… that is why I mentioned positive balances of trade and actually reducing the national debt from 124% down to 78%… And exchequer surpluses are common.

No matter how you try and paint it your delicious is fading.
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  #30471  
Old 15.05.2022, 14:41
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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No-one is saying it would be easy. But long term, it could be done, and the EU would support Scotland all the way, with massive trade coming their way.
This is exactly the stance the Brexiteers used to take (perhaps with the exception of the first sentence).

Pies in the sky.
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Old 16.05.2022, 08:34
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Was Brexit a good move and if you think it was, or it wasn't, what are your arguments? For the rest of EU it doesn't seem to be a big deal now that the dust has settled. It was a biiig deal 7 or 8 years ago when the whole anti-EU rhetoric has begun in the UK, but in the end people got used to certain ideas.
How the British people feel? Are they happier now? Or more at peace, depending on which side they were prior to voting?
Has anything changed in the last few years or with this pandemic nobody had the time or will to think of these things?
Sorry if the answers are somewhere in your posts here but I didn't read this thread for some time. I actually find it completely ridiculous it used to bother me.

Last edited by greenmount; 16.05.2022 at 08:48.
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  #30473  
Old 16.05.2022, 09:01
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Was Brexit a good move and if you think it was, or it wasn't, what are your arguments? For the rest of EU it doesn't seem to be a big deal now that the dust has settled. It was a biiig deal 7 or 8 years ago when the whole anti-EU rhetoric has begun in the UK, but in the end people got used to certain ideas.
How the British people feel? Are they happier now? Or more at peace, depending on which side they were prior to voting?
Has anything changed in the last few years or with this pandemic nobody had the time or will to think of these things?
Sorry if the answers are somewhere in your posts here but I didn't read this thread for some time. I actually find it completely ridiculous it used to bother me.
You won't know for at least a decade or even more. For instance there is no trade deal with the USA because they did not see an economic advantage for them. However there is a possibility of a deal with individual states... that remove the lowest common denominator between the states on a deal, so a state by state deal might be more beneficial. On the other hand the mechanics of it might prove too difficult....

We'll have to wait and see....
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  #30474  
Old 16.05.2022, 09:33
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Was Brexit a good move and if you think it was, or it wasn't, what are your arguments? For the rest of EU it doesn't seem to be a big deal now that the dust has settled. It was a biiig deal 7 or 8 years ago when the whole anti-EU rhetoric has begun in the UK, but in the end people got used to certain ideas.
How the British people feel? Are they happier now? Or more at peace, depending on which side they were prior to voting?
Has anything changed in the last few years or with this pandemic nobody had the time or will to think of these things?
Sorry if the answers are somewhere in your posts here but I didn't read this thread for some time. I actually find it completely ridiculous it used to bother me.
Economically speaking, top-level, Brexit has been a non-event. Obviously everything has been clouded by Covid and now Ukraine, however given the UK's economy has moved broadly in line with major EU economies, it's fair to say that so far the economic effects have been negligible. This is a fast changing picture however and with so much uncertainty everything can change very quickly. There are bigger issues short term that dwarf trade agreements (access to raw materials, energy costs, supply chain pressure etc.) so it will be difficult to get an overview until after the dust has settled.



On migration, the picture below tells a tale and supports the argument given by Brexiteers that Brexit wasn't about stopping immigration, rather controlling who entered the country. Since Brexit there has been an enormous liberal shift in the attitudes towards immigration, it is no longer an issue of public concern.



On foreign policy we're also starting to see the emergence of a new Global Britain. A security partnership has been struck with Australia and the US (AUKUS). Last week a defence pact was signed with Sweden and Finland to provide support to tide them over until they join NATO. Trade agreements, albeit unambitious ones, have been signed with Australia and New Zealand, with further agreements in the pipeline with countries like India.

Democratically, Brexit has also seen results. The UK remains one of the few countries in Europe, perhaps even the only one, with no room for populist parties in her parliament. The UK doesn't have the far right getting 42% of the vote in the same was as what we saw in France recently.

Obviously there's also been issues. The main one being the Northern Ireland protocol. This is regrettable however it requires further work from both sides in order to resolve. There's been issues for businesses, especially small businesses to import and export goods. I also have concerns that the current government is not willing to go far and make the necessary reforms to prepare the country for the challenges that the rest of the 21st century will bring. Without serious changes the UK risks remaining in a state of managed decline, however this is the case for much of the EU too.

Finally, people have moved on now. Aside from the FBPE cult and the Femis and James O'Briens of this world, the vast majority have accepted the result of the referendum put it behind and have moved on to focus on the challenges and opportunities the country now faces.
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  #30475  
Old 16.05.2022, 10:35
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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the UK's economy has moved broadly in line with major EU economies, it's fair to say that so far the economic effects have been negligible.
According to the last column in your table, the UK has the lowest forecast growth at 0.5 of any country worldwide - this is not "broadly inline", it is a disaster.

This IMF forecast also shows UK with the lowest GDP growth (1.2) in 2023 of any country worldwide (excluding Russia which is ruined by sanctions)
here

Here is an article from last December describing the bad economic impact of Brexit, you may need to register to use this link.
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Old 16.05.2022, 10:48
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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How the British people feel? Are they happier now? Or more at peace, depending on which side they were prior to voting?
Has anything changed in the last few years or with this pandemic nobody had the time or will to think of these things?
Sorry if the answers are somewhere in your posts here but I didn't read this thread for some time. I actually find it completely ridiculous it used to bother me.

Which bit did you find completely ridiculous. Brexit? Or this thread?

almost half the population did not want Brexit- and feel angrier than ever as they see day by day how it is negatively affecting them.

The vast majority of the other half feel betrayed and cheated- as all the promises made to them at the time have not materialised, and this, combined with the effect of Covid, and the price rises for energy, food, etc- make them realise they were conned. The list of promises made during the campaign which have been broken is endless- and I'd need several pages to list them all.A small proportion are still avid Brexiters- but the numbers are dwindling.
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Old 16.05.2022, 10:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Here are just a few, but there are so many more.

The Deals signed so far are minimal, and the one with Australia is likely to destroy British farming with cheap imports of meat raised with very different standards (antibiotic use for instance, and feed) - and one reason why the EU is very concerned with no border between UK and Ireland, and on to EU.

A recent Deal with India was done in exchange, partly, with agreement to offer vast amounts or work Visas for Indian citizens. I do not mind this at all- but I can bet you that a large % of Brexiters do mind, as cutting down immigration was uppermost in their mind.

Some poorer regions of the UK used to get massive subsidies from the EU, and are now offered only a tiny proportion by the UK Governement, leaving them short for their schools, health, roads, infrastructure in general. And people were promised higher wages and lower energny prices - and now see clearly that was 100% lies.

https://www.politico.eu/article/15-t...d-what-it-got/
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Old 16.05.2022, 10:59
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The Deals signed so far are minimal, and the one with Australia is likely to destroy British farming with cheap imports of meat raised with very different standards (antibiotic use for instance, and feed)
Self-contradiction alert!
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Old 16.05.2022, 10:59
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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According to the last column in your table, the UK has the lowest forecast growth at 0.5 of any country worldwide - this is not "broadly inline", it is a disaster.

This IMF forecast also shows UK with the lowest GDP growth (1.2) in 2023 of any country worldwide (excluding Russia which is ruined by sanctions)
here

Here is an article from last December describing the bad economic impact of Brexit, you may need to register to use this link.
The sensible answer… just don’t ask the tub thumping brexiteers or whiny hand wringing remainers ..is that it will be at least 10 years before a proper picture can be made.
As to the IMF forecasters.. Mystic-Meg would be an option…

‘In 6.1 percent of cases, the IMF was within a 0.1 percentage-point margin of error. The rest of the time, its forecasts underestimated GDP growth in 56 percent of cases and overestimated it in 44 percent’
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-imf-forecasts/
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Old 16.05.2022, 11:22
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The sensible answer… just don’t ask the tub thumping brexiteers or whiny hand wringing remainers ..is that it will be at least 10 years before a proper picture can be made.
As to the IMF forecasters.. Mystic-Meg would be an option…

‘In 6.1 percent of cases, the IMF was within a 0.1 percentage-point margin of error. The rest of the time, its forecasts underestimated GDP growth in 56 percent of cases and overestimated it in 44 percent’
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-imf-forecasts/
This is exactly the problem at the moment, with so much uncertainty forecasts are being constantly being revised (not that they were actually too accurate to begin with!). The outlook is very difficult to predict. What I can say with reasonable certainty is that the inflationary driven Cost of Living crisis is going to bite everyone across Europe and will make the effects of Brexit look like a mere drop in the ocean.
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