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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #30481  
Old 16.05.2022, 11:23
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Self-contradiction alert!
Not at all- au contraire! The advantages given to the UK by that Deal are minimal- the disadvantages are massive.

In the meantime, it is just about going to become much much worse. If Johnson, Truss and co rip up the Northern Ireland protocol, the EU are likely to tear up our withdrawal agreement, which will make life even more difficult for Brits who trade or have connections with the EU countries!

Remember that this is the NI protocol negotiated and signed by them, called 'oven ready' and with clear promise that there would be no ckecks between NI and mainland UK. The sh*t is going to finally hit that proverbial fan in a massive way.

Of course, those here who escaped long ago, have great jobs, high Swiss salaries, great health insurance and piling up their Swiss pension pot, can travel or go to work anywhere in EU- and who voted for Brexit, knowing full well it would not affect them in any way, shape or form- don't care, as long as their can push their anti EU rhetoric.

Last edited by JackieH; 16.05.2022 at 12:26.
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  #30482  
Old 16.05.2022, 14:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The sensible answer… just don’t ask the tub thumping brexiteers or whiny hand wringing remainers ..is that it will be at least 10 years before a proper picture can be made.
As to the IMF forecasters.. Mystic-Meg would be an option…

‘In 6.1 percent of cases, the IMF was within a 0.1 percentage-point margin of error. The rest of the time, its forecasts underestimated GDP growth in 56 percent of cases and overestimated it in 44 percent’
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-imf-forecasts/
Kicking the can down the road for ten years (starting when? after the referendum?) will not help anybody.

Six years after the referendum it is already clear that HMS Brexit is not performing well on the stormy economic seas.
At the time of the referendum, nobody had a clue how to integrate Brexit with the Common Travel Area between Ireland and the UK. Six years later captain Boris still has no clue and is busy slapping duct tape patches all over the sinking ship.

If we compare the pre pandemic year of 2019 with 2021 for UK we see the total 2021 UK GDP was below 2019 whereas for the EU it was higher.
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  #30483  
Old 16.05.2022, 18:38
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

TC and others, is Ukip not a populist party? Apropos of no room for populists in the Parliament.
Anyway, in my opinion that was an odd thing to say as Brexit is the masterpiece of a populist party.
As for stopping migration, I don't think it has stopped and if by controlling it you mean this....

https://www.france24.com/en/africa/2...-rights-groups

Economically, making deals with poorer countries from Commonwealth is not a big win, isn't it. But I think we should wait for 10 years indeed to form a more accurate opinion.

In my opinion UK should have had a special status within EU, not encouraged to leave EU for good. We had the inability of EU to at least think of a compromise and the drastic approach of the hardcore brexiters. A pity. Two inflexible sides that will probably both regret a little bit this "divorce"...

Last edited by greenmount; 16.05.2022 at 18:52.
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  #30484  
Old 16.05.2022, 18:56
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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In my opinion UK should have had a special status within EU, not encouraged to leave EU for good. We had the inability of EU to at least think of a compromise and the drastic approach of the hardcore brexiters. A pity. Two inflexible sides that will probably both regret a little bit this "divorce"...
They came willingly in and left willingly. The UK wanted out and leave for good. I don‘t see why the EU would have to accomodate a country that was not willing to participate.

As in the old adage: you can‘t have your cake and eat it.
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  #30485  
Old 16.05.2022, 20:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

That was always clear. I am not a fan of Mrs May, but she knew it, and realised any Deal had to take it on board. Johnson was warned by all experts in the field, and he knew what he was doing just could not work. He is 100% responsible.

From Simon Jenkins in the Guardian

''Two of Boris Johnson’s most reckless chickens are coming home to roost. To get hard Brexit into law and topple his predecessor, Theresa May, he told Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party that he would allow no border in the Irish Sea. He promptly allowed one, and signed a protocol to the Brexit deal to that effect. An enraged DUP is duly refusing to let the new Northern Irish executive take office until that border goes. Johnson is now threatening to unilaterally renege on the protocol, in turn enraging the EU by flagrantly breaching the withdrawal deal. Precisely this trap was built into hard Brexit from day one. Everyone knew it. It was classic Johnson. He lied his way out of each scrape, sacking or ennobling colleagues to achieve this.''
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  #30486  
Old 17.05.2022, 08:40
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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TC and others, is Ukip not a populist party? Apropos of no room for populists in the Parliament.
Anyway, in my opinion that was an odd thing to say as Brexit is the masterpiece of a populist party.
As for stopping migration, I don't think it has stopped and if by controlling it you mean this....

https://www.france24.com/en/africa/2...-rights-groups

Economically, making deals with poorer countries from Commonwealth is not a big win, isn't it. But I think we should wait for 10 years indeed to form a more accurate opinion.

In my opinion UK should have had a special status within EU, not encouraged to leave EU for good. We had the inability of EU to at least think of a compromise and the drastic approach of the hardcore brexiters. A pity. Two inflexible sides that will probably both regret a little bit this "divorce"...
Ever since it became apparent that the current UK government wouldn't be ambitious enough in its post Brexit agenda, I've thought EFTA would have been a suitable landing ground. Though in real terms it would unlikely ever be acceptable due to FMOP, which is a shame. Even this wouldn't be so straight forward however as Switzerland's ongoing negotiations with the EU are proving.

UKIP is now an irrelevance thanks to Brexit. Ironically, this was the aim of David Cameron's decision to call for the referendum in the first place. He wanted to do away with UKIP and the Eurosceptic wing of his own party. Ironically this has worked, although the outcome of the referendum is not what Mr. Cameron had planned for!

I'm actually surprised that there is no real threat coming from the Tory right, considering that Boris Johnson's Conservative party has its feet firmly rooted in the centre ground.

Again, the aim of Brexit was never to stop migration, it was to control it. Immigration is still increasing, however based on what skills can be offered to the UK, rather than on what nationality the passport holder is.

Rwanda is a deterrent and nothing more. Something needs to be done to break up the people smugglers and gangsters who make a fortune by allowing people to risk their lives in small boats crossing the channel. The fact that only young single men risk being sent to Rwanda should be enough to show this. Besides, this measure is nothing more with both the EU and Denmark exploring similar schemes.

Rwanda: the EU provides €10.3 million for life-saving refugee support measures

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres.../en/ip_19_6301

Denmark in talks with Rwanda on transfer of asylum-seekers

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa...rs-2022-04-20/
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  #30487  
Old 17.05.2022, 09:34
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

How can anyone not come to the conclusion this man is a fraud, a liar, an opportunist of the worst order, a pathological narcissist and a total shambles. One journalist told him a couple of days ago 'you must be absolutely furious with whomever signed this stupid deal'! Indeed.


https://fb.watch/d328X2vyTn/

Last edited by JackieH; 17.05.2022 at 10:05.
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  #30488  
Old 17.05.2022, 10:55
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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...Immigration is still increasing, however based on what skills can be offered to the UK, rather than on what nationality the passport holder is. ...
Nice in theory, but first what happens is that a big supplier of people (e.g. InfoSys, TCS... ) convinces the UK government that there's a skills shortage, e.g. in IT, and only they can fill the requirements.

Meanwhile, the people with the skills already in the UK are forced either out, or to lower their salary expectations.

Mind you - this was true before Brexit! It's just got worse post Brexit.
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  #30489  
Old 17.05.2022, 11:35
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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How can anyone not come to the conclusion this man is a fraud, a liar, an opportunist of the worst order, a pathological narcissist and a total shambles. One journalist told him a couple of days ago 'you must be absolutely furious with whomever signed this stupid deal'! Indeed.


https://fb.watch/d328X2vyTn/
I can understand the personal dislike but he redeemed himself since the war in Ukraine has started....imho, of course.

I never had a "strong opinion" about him anyway. His hair is kind of.....well, is capturing all my attention. lol
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  #30490  
Old 17.05.2022, 12:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Redeemed himself, wow! This massive opportunist has been 'using' the war in the most despicable way.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...omeback-europe

The Bank of England has stated that Brexit is currently costing 444 million a week!

May I take a guess that you are not British, and are not directly affected by all this, nor all your direct family and grandchildren's future. I am so grateful they have 2 escape routes, access to Irish and Swiss passports.
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Old 17.05.2022, 12:26
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I can understand the personal dislike but he redeemed himself since the war in Ukraine has started....imho, of course.

I never had a "strong opinion" about him anyway. His hair is kind of.....well, is capturing all my attention. lol
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Redeemed himself, wow! This massive opportunist has been 'using' the war in the most despicable way.

The Bank of England has stated that Brexit is currently costing 444 million a week!

May I take a guess that you are not British, and are not directly affected by all this, nor all your direct family and grandchildren's future.
That still gives Greenmount the right to an opinion.
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Old 17.05.2022, 12:56
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Of course.

Looks like Truss or Johnson are going to make that announcement tomorrow in the House. The fall out and repercussions won't be long to follow- and some will be deeply affected, more than others.

At the very time the Head of the Bank of England is talking about apocalyptic price rises, and the particular difficult situation for the UK, where the combo has a disastrous Brexit added to the mix and who, due to above reneging on Deal, will be further isolated by the EU, the USA and probably others.

Those of you who will not be affected are indeed entitled to an opinion - those of us who will be, and have our closest family seriously and directly affected- certainly are too.

Leave you to it for a while.

Last edited by JackieH; 17.05.2022 at 13:33.
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  #30493  
Old 17.05.2022, 13:37
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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?..In my opinion UK should have had a special status within EU, not encouraged to leave EU for good. We had the inability of EU to at least think of a compromise and the drastic approach of the hardcore brexiters. A pity. Two inflexible sides that will probably both regret a little bit this "divorce"...
The reality is they already had an array of exceptions to EU rules. From the budget rebate to human rights and many others.
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  #30494  
Old 17.05.2022, 13:57
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Of course.

Looks like Truss or Johnson are going to make that announcement tomorrow in the House. The fall out and repercussions won't be long to follow- and some will be deeply affected, more than others.

At the very time the Head of the Bank of England is talking about apocalyptic price rises, and the particular difficult situation for the UK, where the combo has a disastrous Brexit added to the mix and who, due to above reneging on Deal, will be further isolated by the EU, the USA and probably others.

Those of you who will not be affected are indeed entitled to an opinion - those of us who will be, and have our closest family seriously and directly affected- certainly are too.

Leave you to it for a while.
Enjoy your holidays.
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  #30495  
Old 17.05.2022, 16:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The fact that only young single men risk being sent to Rwanda should be enough to show this.
Going by the one or two articles I read on this, it's not based on sex or marital status but a function of the fact that 90% are single men. Obviously one needs to expect (at least) a similar share of men among those deported.
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  #30496  
Old 17.05.2022, 16:05
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Of course.

Looks like Truss or Johnson are going to make that announcement tomorrow in the House. The fall out and repercussions won't be long to follow- and some will be deeply affected, more than others.

At the very time the Head of the Bank of England is talking about apocalyptic price rises, and the particular difficult situation for the UK, where the combo has a disastrous Brexit added to the mix and who, due to above reneging on Deal, will be further isolated by the EU, the USA and probably others.

Those of you who will not be affected are indeed entitled to an opinion - those of us who will be, and have our closest family seriously and directly affected- certainly are too.

Leave you to it for a while.
Actually, everybody who lives in Europe is affected, some more and some less.

Switzerland negotiated new Bilateral agreements with the UK but some third country restrictions still apply like "Entries or returns to Switzerland with pets when travelling from Great Britain are now subject to the rules for third countries."

The CH-UK bilateral trade in goods recorded a massive slump in 2021 (ca. 30%) and is recovering only slowly. Moreover, the control regime for goods imports at the British border will not be fully developed until 2022.

Edit: In Q1 2022 Swiss - UK exports and imports both fell.
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  #30497  
Old 18.05.2022, 12:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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That still gives Greenmount the right to an opinion.
Thank you.
JackieH is offering an opinion from her perspective (which admittedly it's more informed than mine), and I can take it, no worries.
In spite of everything, BJ's gestures for Ukraine mean a lot for people like me. That's it, really. A matter of perspective.

I was thinking that after all these years of sometimes very unpleasant, sometimes just heated Brexit discussions, maybe it's OK to appreciate when some prominent politician is doing something good. More in the "building bridges" line of thought.
I definitely didn't intend to upset anyone here, least of all JackieH.
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Old 20.05.2022, 09:48
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Going by the one or two articles I read on this, it's not based on sex or marital status but a function of the fact that 90% are single men. Obviously one needs to expect (at least) a similar share of men among those deported.
I doubt we'll see anyone other than young single men departing for Rwanda.

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The pilot scheme will focus on single men arriving on boats or lorries.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-61097114

Ultimately, the high levels of immigration to the UK are entirely self inflicted. The UK remains one of the easiest countries in which to disappear in the developed world. No IDs, no registration, turn up at a doctors or hospital and you'll receive treatment no questions asked, easy cash in hand work to be had all over the place, register your child at a school no questions asked, little coordination between government departments etc.

With so many illegal immigrants I've always wondered what the true population is of the country, and what the real GDP would be taking all this into account. I've long supported an amnesty of illegal immigrants followed by robust checks and measures going forward. Goes without saying it will never happen. Also unfortunately goes without saying that Brexit would unlikely to have happened were immigration not weaponised.

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In spite of everything, BJ's gestures for Ukraine mean a lot for people like me. That's it, really. A matter of perspective.

I was thinking that after all these years of sometimes very unpleasant, sometimes just heated Brexit discussions, maybe it's OK to appreciate when some prominent politician is doing something good. More in the "building bridges" line of thought.
This is what's so frustrating when looking at the EU's reaction to the NI protocol. On the one side they're unable to be flexible in finding solutions, on the other they're happily allowing EU energy companies to pay for gas in rubles in breach of their own sanctions. Also Germany and France leaning on Ukraine to accept a loss of territory in order to bring the war to an end. The double standards are stomach-churning.
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Old 20.05.2022, 10:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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This is what's so frustrating when looking at the EU's reaction to the NI protocol. On the one side they're unable to be flexible in finding solutions, on the other they're happily allowing EU energy companies to pay for gas in rubles in breach of their own sanctions. Also Germany and France leaning on Ukraine to accept a loss of territory in order to bring the war to an end. The double standards are stomach-churning.
The only frustrating thing about the NI protocol the lack of good faith and integrity on the part of the UK government. They negotiated, signed and ratified a treaty in bad faith and they have all the flexibility they are getting. Now it is time to be held to account.
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Old 20.05.2022, 10:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The only frustrating thing about the NI protocol the lack of good faith and integrity on the part of the UK government. They negotiated, signed and ratified a treaty in bad faith and they have all the flexibility they are getting. Now it is time to be held to account.
Yes, it's easy to say it was signed in good faith, but that doesn't alter the fact that the protocol clearly isn't working. Exports between the GB and NI have dropped 20%, imports from Ireland to NI have increased 50%. Power sharing can't restarted in NI due to unionist objections to the protocol. Unionism is being driven again to the hard line and there was a bomb threat to Simon Coveney recently. These are all threats to the Good Friday Agreement.

It's ridiculous when something like 20% of all import checks into the EU's external borders are currently taking place on imports into NI. There is no real threat to the EU single market when regulatory standards are the same.
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