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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #30741  
Old 22.09.2022, 19:37
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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As I was just Here for the money, that concludes the order of business. I'll leave the usual suspects to keep wilfully misunderstanding everything, pick fights, hurl abuse, expose their mental health issues, or simply troll everybody else.

In a nutshell: I'll leave EF to keep on being EF while I continue to enjoy life in the real world.
In case you're still browsing the forum sometimes:
It was nice to have you back for a little while..

Great summary of EF btw.
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  #30742  
Old 23.09.2022, 16:35
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

SAVE THE RICH


Kwarteng scraps top 45% rate of income tax and cuts stamp duty
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  #30743  
Old 23.09.2022, 18:25
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

So it seems some predictions here were actually true- as Sterling today almost reaches parity with the CHF.

Of course great news for UK expats in CH, I suppose. Bravo.
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  #30744  
Old 23.09.2022, 18:26
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Snapshot of the "mini budget" highlights from today was posted at 14:23 here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-62994747

I'm not sure how massive tax cuts for wealthy people and increases elsewhere in spending helps people who are struggling to pay heat bills and put food on the table?
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  #30745  
Old 23.09.2022, 20:34
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

This mini-budget is everything the wealthy desire.

But come on Conservatives you need the middle class to reelect you. This isn’t going to do it.
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  #30746  
Old 23.09.2022, 21:06
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So it seems some predictions here were actually true- as Sterling today almost reaches parity with the CHF.

Of course great news for UK expats in CH, I suppose. Bravo.
Why?
I have been here nearly 8 years.. will stay possibly another 2.
The money from my CH pension will be nice to have but hardly life changing.
However, if I owned multiple homes in the UK and Switzerland as some on here do it would no doubt be different…
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  #30747  
Old 23.09.2022, 21:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Paul Krugman writing in the New York times has an interesting view of the situation. Sorry the charts he refers to are missing.

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By Paul Krugman
Opinion Columnist
Britain is in a very difficult economic position. The British economy, like the U.S. economy, seems to be seriously overheated, with substantial amounts of inflation driven by high domestic demand. Unlike America, it is also facing the full force of Europe’s energy crisis, driven by the efforts of President Vladimir Putin of Russia to use a shut off of natural gas to bully the West into abandoning Ukraine.
So many of us expected Britain’s economy to go through a rough patch in the months, or maybe even years, ahead. What few foresaw, as far as I can tell, was a policy zombie apocalypse.
I’ve written a lot over the years about zombie economic ideas — ideas that have failed repeatedly in practice, and should be dead, but somehow are still shambling around, eating policymakers’ brains. The pre-eminent zombie in American economic discourse has long been the belief that cutting taxes on the rich will create an economic miracle.
That belief is still out there: Even as its infrastructure was collapsing to the point that its largest city no longer had running water, Mississippi tried to raise its economic fortunes with … a tax cut. But in America, zombie economics has lately been overshadowed by zombie beliefs about election fraud, the impact of immigration and so on.
Britain, however, doesn’t (yet?) have an equivalent of the MAGA movement. What it does have is Liz Truss, a new prime minister who seems to be an ardent believer in economic fallacies from the Thatcher/Reagan era.
Before I get to the economic plan that has produced chaos in Britain’s bond and currency markets, let’s talk about the myths that seem to have inspired her.
The important point to understand is that there isn’t a serious debate about the proposition that tax cuts for the rich strongly increase economic growth. The truth is that there is no evidence — none — for that proposition.
Of course, people on the right, raised on the legend of Saint Reagan, believe that his tax cuts did wonders for the U.S. economy. But the data don’t agree.
Reagan did drastically cut taxes on high incomes. Here are Congressional Budget Office estimates of the average federal tax rate paid by the top 1 percent:

The ups and downs of elite taxes
Note both the steepness of the Reagan cut and the rise under Clinton, both of which are relevant to the story.
So what did happen to economic growth? It’s important to distinguish between the long-run trend — which was what tax cuts were supposed to improve — and business cycle fluctuations. Here’s real G.D.P. from the early 1970s (when for some reason growth slowed around the world) until the end of the Reagan era, measured on a log scale so that a straight line represents steady growth:

What Reagan didn’t achieve

I’ve also included a red line showing the growth trend over the whole period. What this picture suggests is that underlying U.S. growth was pretty much unchanged through the 1970s and 1980s. The economy slumped during recessions — especially the double-dip recession of 1979-82 — and grew rapidly during recoveries, but by the end of Reagan’s reign it was more or less exactly where you would have expected it to be if you extrapolated the trend from 1973 to 1979.
And let’s extend the picture through the 1990s:

Remember the Clinton bust? Neither do I.
Bill Clinton effectively undid the original Reagan tax cuts, amid many predictions of imminent disaster. The economy actually grew somewhat faster than it had under Reagan, and by the end of the Clinton years it was above the level it would have reached if you just extrapolated the 1973-1989 trend.
There have also been multiple state-level examples. There was the Kansas tax-cut “experiment,” which was a flat failure. There was Jerry Brown’s California tax hike, which some on the right called “economic suicide,” but somehow failed to prevent an economic boom.
Finally, there’s evidence from abroad. As Martin Wolf of The Financial Times points out, since Margaret Thatcher, Britain has been relatively deregulated and low tax compared with its European neighbors. Its relative economic position hasn’t changed much at all.
So there is no reason anyone who isn’t a right-wing apparatchik, sealed in a hermetic intellectual bubble, should believe that tax cuts for the rich are the answer to what ails us.
Yet on Friday, the Truss government announced plans for big tax cuts, notably a 5 percentage point cut in the tax rate on top earners and cancellation of a planned tax hike on corporations. Unusually, these plans were described as a “fiscal event” rather than a budget, allowing the government to avoid presenting any detailed fiscal or economic projections — projections that would surely have been either dire, ludicrous or both. But officials still insisted, despite all the historical evidence to the contrary, that their tax cuts would do great things for the British economy.
Obviously, I don’t believe their assurances. More important, neither do financial markets. Interest rates soared on the prospect of increased government borrowing, while the foreign exchange value of the pound plunged.
Either of these market movements would, on its own, have been a signal that investors don’t think the Truss government knows what it’s doing. But their combination is especially ominous.
You see, when advanced countries run big budget deficits, we normally expect their currencies to rise. That’s because we expect their central banks to raise interest rates to offset the inflationary impact of the budget deficit, and these higher interest rates tend to attract increased foreign investment. That is in fact what happened under Reagan, where a surging budget deficit — caused by tax cuts and increased military spending — led to a very strong dollar:

When deficits strengthened the dollar
But right now, British markets aren’t acting like those of an advanced country. They are, instead, behaving like those of a developing country, in which investors tend to see budget deficits as a sign of irresponsibility and a harbinger of future policy disaster.
The markets may be overdoing it. Britain isn’t Argentina, and it surely has the economic, the administrative and, I think, the political capacity to turn things around. But the fact that markets are treating it as if it were Argentina shows just how extraordinary a crisis of confidence Liz Truss has managed to create within days of moving into No. 10 Downing Street.
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  #30748  
Old 24.09.2022, 13:14
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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This mini-budget is everything the wealthy desire.

But come on Conservatives you need the middle class to reelect you. This isn’t going to do it.
Now you know the true meaning of the Tories oft mooted Levelling Up exercise, really 'levelling up' is to make the rich, exceedingly richer and the poor poorer in 'real terms' ( as regards their spending power, inflation adjusted ) but still make the lower middle / working class feel as if they are better off from the loose change that trickles down to them from the mini budget.
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  #30749  
Old 22.10.2022, 19:22
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I stumbled across this 18 Oct 22 clip from that Communist, left loving, pinko supporting Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/video/91b8a350-58...a-c62ec832aa9c

Makes you think.

Last edited by bowlie; 22.10.2022 at 19:56. Reason: Typo
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  #30750  
Old 23.10.2022, 00:23
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I stumbled across this 18 Oct 22 clip from that Communist, left loving, pinko supporting Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/video/91b8a350-58...a-c62ec832aa9c

Makes you think.

The Brexiteers are enough to drive one to tears ! ! !
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  #30751  
Old 23.10.2022, 08:44
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Look, I don't have a dog in this fight, but this strikes me as willful idiocy. Very sad to see, and it must be infuriating to you folks.
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  #30752  
Old 24.10.2022, 14:24
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

In a move described by lawyers as "Completely barking", a bill to repeal some 2,400 EU based laws is currently on its way through the UK Parliament. Under the bill, rights and protections for consumers, workers, the environment and animal welfare will simply fall on 31 December 2023 and without any sort of Parliamentary scrutiny unless replaced by ministers. And despite Rees-Mogg's promise that Brexit could mean higher standards than the EU’s, it only confers powers to reduce them.

One quarter of the laws covered are environmental covering such things as water quality, sewage pollution, clean air, habitat protections and the use of pesticides.

The UK is already known for its shit-strewn seas, looks like the government want to extend this to rivers, air and the land as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022...r-lawyers-warn
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  #30753  
Old 24.10.2022, 14:42
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Good for health I suppose.

Price of red wine set to soar.
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  #30754  
Old 24.10.2022, 15:06
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I stumbled across this 18 Oct 22 clip from that Communist, left loving, pinko supporting Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/video/91b8a350-58...a-c62ec832aa9c
Makes you think.
Name:  Private Fraser.jpg
Views: 169
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According to this long time Tory backer, the UK is Doomed and on a path to becoming 'the sick man of Europe' because of the way Brexit was negotiated.

BBC Business News - UK doomed without Brexit rethink says backer
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  #30755  
Old 27.10.2022, 14:50
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How the U.K. Became One of the Poorest Countries in Western Europe

Interesting article in the Atlantic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/newslett...=nl_todayworld

Some Cherry Picking:

In the American imagination, the U.K. is not only our political parent but also our cultural co-partner, a wealthy nation that gave us modern capitalism and the Industrial Revolution. But strictly by the numbers, Britain is pretty poor for a rich place. U.K. living standards and wages have fallen significantly behind those of Western Europe. By some measures, in fact, real wages in the U.K. are lower than they were 15 years ago, and will likely be even lower next year.

After World War II, Britain’s economy grew slower than those of much of continental Europe. By the 1970s, the Brits were having a national debate about why they were falling behind and how the former empire had become a relatively insular and sleepy economy. Under Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s, markets were deregulated, unions were smashed, and the financial sector emerged as a jewel of the British economy. Thatcher’s injection of neoliberalism had many complicated knock-on effects, but from the 1990s into the 2000s, the British economy roared ahead, with London’s financial boom leading the way. Britain, which got rich as the world’s factory in the 19th century, had become the world’s banker by the 21st.

In the past 30 years, the British economy chose finance over industry, Britain’s government chose austerity over investment, and British voters chose a closed and poorer economy over an open and richer one. The predictable results are falling wages and stunningly low productivity growth. Although British media worry about robots taking everybody’s jobs, the reality is closer to the opposite. “Between 2003 and 2018, the number of automatic-roller car washes (that is, robots washing your car) declined by 50 percent, while the number of hand car washes (that is, men with buckets) increased by 50 percent,”

According to the International Federation of Robotics, the U.K. manufacturing industry has less technological automation than just about any other similarly rich country. With barely 100 installed robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers in 2020, its average robot density was below that of Slovenia and Slovakia.

What was once the world’s most powerful globalized empire has now voted to explicitly reduce global access to trade and talent. Since Brexit, immigration, exports, and foreign investment have all declined, likely reducing the size of the U.K.’s economy by several percentage points in the long run.

Take out Greater London—the prosperity of which depends to an uncomfortable degree on a willingness to provide services to oligarchs from the Middle East and the former Soviet Union—and the UK is one of the poorest countries in Western Europe.

Enemies of progress can criticize the legacy of industrialization, productivity, and globalization. But the U.K. shows us what can happen when a rich country seems to reject all three. Rather than transforming into some post-economic Eden of good vibes, it becomes bitter, flailing, and nonsensical.
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  #30756  
Old 27.10.2022, 16:39
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

@bowlie

It was always a nutty idea to sever trade relations with one of the three largest global players in international trade.
Only underlined by the failure to agree on any kind of trade deal with the other two after six years and nothing on the horizon; I had hoped there was some kind of secret deal in the cupboard to be revealed but the cupboard was bare - stupid me.

Hopefully, Rishi will magic some sort of deal with the EU that everybody can pretend is not a Brexit reversal.
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  #30757  
Old 27.10.2022, 17:30
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Hopefully, Rishi will magic some sort of deal with the EU that everybody can pretend is not a Brexit reversal.
I don't want to point out the obvious, but isn't hoping for someone to 'magic' a solution, not simply a continuation of the logic that has led the UK to where it is at present?
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  #30758  
Old 27.10.2022, 18:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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@bowlie

It was always a nutty idea to sever trade relations with one of the three largest global players in international trade.
Only underlined by the failure to agree on any kind of trade deal with the other two after six years and nothing on the horizon; I had hoped there was some kind of secret deal in the cupboard to be revealed but the cupboard was bare - stupid me.

Hopefully, Rishi will magic some sort of deal with the EU that everybody can pretend is not a Brexit reversal.

Any such Deal with a form of Single market/customs Union, will include FMOP - Suella ain't not going to agree!

I do think Keir Starmer will have the chance to sort something out- as he can honestly say 'look, I had nothing to do with this mess'.

Been working in the lovely sunshine all day, in the garde, so not watched the news. If the Unionists in NI refuse power-sharing today- then things are going to get very difficult with regard to NI agreement. What is so stupid, is that NI is the only part of UK that is doing really well at the moment, as it still has free access to EU. But the DUP would rather scupper the country, and the UK with it- so not to sit and share with Sinn Fein.
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  #30759  
Old 27.10.2022, 18:19
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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@bowlie

It was always a nutty idea to sever trade relations with one of the three largest global players in international trade.
Only underlined by the failure to agree on any kind of trade deal with the other two after six years and nothing on the horizon; I had hoped there was some kind of secret deal in the cupboard to be revealed but the cupboard was bare - stupid me.

Hopefully, Rishi will magic some sort of deal with the EU that everybody can pretend is not a Brexit reversal.
I used to think it mattered and no doubt for countries like Ireland or Germany where it accounts for about 7% of GDP as well as other net exporters such as Switzerland it does. But the UK has not been a net exporter for decades even when they had preferential access to a very large market. And I don't see a trade deal turning that around, nobody is going to disadvantage themselves to that level to give the UK a good deal. I think there needs to be a real genuine economic plan and a will not carry it through over several years and over several governments.
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Old 28.10.2022, 21:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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In a move described by lawyers as "Completely barking", a bill to repeal some 2,400 EU based laws is currently on its way through the UK Parliament. Under the bill, rights and protections for consumers, workers, the environment and animal welfare will simply fall on 31 December 2023 and without any sort of Parliamentary scrutiny unless replaced by ministers. And despite Rees-Mogg's promise that Brexit could mean higher standards than the EU’s, it only confers powers to reduce them.

One quarter of the laws covered are environmental covering such things as water quality, sewage pollution, clean air, habitat protections and the use of pesticides.

The UK is already known for its shit-strewn seas, looks like the government want to extend this to rivers, air and the land as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022...r-lawyers-warn
It is claimed Rishi will delay or even stop this.
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