The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[JackieH]

Strange how those who voted for it and still insist it was the best thing since sliced bread, just cannot give any reason why, or list any benefit at all. And often debate like this man on the JOB show


·
https://fb.watch/gBVVG3eof7/


it's painful- but there are quite a few out there, perhaps even here.

After talking nonsense as the old guy above, they get cross and tell us to shut up, stop whining and bleating, call us ninnies and remoaners, and worse! To get over it, and then they shout 'democratic vote' (knowing full well it has been proven beyond any doubt whatsoever to have been fradulent- and so vague that no-one knew what they were voting for - listen to old bloke above again, he is just one of so many). Because they have nothing else to say of any use- apart from abuse!

And the likes of Rees-Mogg will never accept any responsibility, of course. He knows better than Carney and all the other financial experts who clearly predicted the demise of Sterling at the time.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/rees-mogg...-brexit-claim/

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	The EU had wanted a specific sum to be agreed for Britain to pay the bloc to cover its outstanding obligations, but in the end the sides agreed on a joint methodology to calculate that later.

Is that still undecided?

[Biro]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Is that still undecided?

In all honesty, the whole lot is still pretty undecided !!

[JackieH]

	Quote:	Biro
	Move on Jackie, your continued bleating will change nothing THERE IS NO WAY BACK. The EU doesn't want the disruption of the UK, they spoil what's left of the Franco-German axis, the UK doesn't want the EU because they feel superior. It's happened and you have to learn to live with it and make the best out of it and continuous whining is no way forward. It is typical UK, living in the past, crying over spilled milk; LOOK FORWARDS it's not all black in front of you dearie

So you agree that a lot about Brexit is NOT clear/undecided- then you insult others re saying the same, and that there are options for re-negotiations in the future.

[John William]

	Quote:	JackieH
	Strange how those who voted for it and still insist it was the best thing since sliced bread, just cannot give any reason why, or list any benefit at all. And often debate like this man on the JOB show https://fb.watch/gBVVG3eof7/ it's painful- but there are quite a few out there, perhaps even here. After talking nonsense as the old guy above, they get cross and tell us to shut up, stop whining, call us ninnies and remoaners, and worse! To get over it, and then they shout 'democratic vote' (knowing full well it has been proven beyond any doubt whatsoever to have been fradulent - and so vague that no-one knew what they were voting for - listen to old bloke above again, he is just one of so many). Because they have nothing else to say of any use- apart from abuse! And the likes of Rees-Mogg will never accept any responsibility, of course. He knows better than Carney and all the other financial experts who clearly predicted the demise of Sterling at the time. https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/rees-mogg...-brexit-claim/

One only has to look how long the gap will be between the 1st Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014 and the ( much vaunted )
2nd Scottish Referendum ( IndyRef2 ) on 19th Ocotber 2023 ( Supreme Court Judgement case pending of course )
To find that referendum's can come round a 2nd time and who knows what the result will be next time - particularly ( as in the Scottish case ) what the Scots were promised ( continued membership of the EU & it's markets ) if they voted No to independence - has all been overturned thanks to Brexit; not to mention the fact that something like 61 per cent of Scots voted to remain in the EU anyway.

The fact that the Scots have been burdened with a Tory party running the UK Government for over a decade - that only has a tenuous number of Scottish MP's in Westminster ( 6 in all ) only adds to the Scots ire and dissatisfaction with the government in Westminster.

Therefore if your looking for what Brexit is delivering to the UK - it's obvious, its delivering the breakup of the United Kingdom.

Reuters - UK Supreme Court will take months to decide Scottish Referendum case

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Is that still undecided?

According to this article, it is mostly agreed but still some open items, payments are forecast to continue until 2057.

From the article incompetence reigned "In July 2021, Downing Street rejected an EU estimate of a £40.8bn total bill. The government insisted the figure was between £35bn and £39bn.
But in July 2022, the government's own estimate put the bill higher, at £42.5bn. "

[JackieH]

	Quote:	John William
	One only has to look how long the gap will be between the 1st Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014 and the ( much vaunted ) 2nd Scottish Referendum ( IndyRef2 ) on 19th Ocotber 2023 ( Supreme Court Judgement case pending of course ) To find that referendum's can come round a 2nd time and who knows what the result will be next time - particularly ( as in the Scottish case ) what the Scots were promised ( continued membership of the EU & it's markets ) if they voted No to independence - has all been overturned thanks to Brexit; not to mention the fact that something like 61 per cent of Scots voted to remain in the EU anyway. The fact that the Scots have been burdened with a Tory party running the UK Government for over a decade - that only has a tenuous number of Scottish MP's in Westminster ( 6 in all ) only adds to the Scots ire and dissatisfaction with the government in Westminster. Therefore if your looking for what Brexit is delivering to the UK - it's obvious, its delivering the breakup of the United Kingdom. Reuters - UK Supreme Court will take months to decide Scottish Referendum case

The behaviour of the DUP will probably lead to the hastening of re-unification- exactly what they don't want. And yet, NI is the only part of the UK that is doing well at the moment, still being part of Single Market. Oh the tragic irony.

Wales next?

[bowlie]

Quebec voted twice for independence. No reason why Scotland couldn't as well.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	According to this article, it is mostly agreed but still some open items, payments are forecast to continue until 2057. From the article incompetence reigned "In July 2021, Downing Street rejected an EU estimate of a £40.8bn total bill. The government insisted the figure was between £35bn and £39bn. But in July 2022, the government's own estimate put the bill higher, at £42.5bn. "

Thx for the link.

Not necessarily incompetence though. Underlying parameters like currency exchange rate, interest rates, the number of years to be discounted over as well as those to be covered, may all have changed.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Quebec voted twice for independence. No reason why Scotland couldn't as well.

Ireland voted twice on replacing PR with FPP voting, both rejected, twice on abolishing the upper House of Parliament, both rejected, twice on abortion and I don’t know how many times on EU matters. There is nothing in their constitution to say they can’t.

The idea that people are entitled to change their minds is well established.

Although Ireland and Switzerland have very different legal and political systems, it’s interesting that when it comes to referenda both countries recognize the need for the provision of independent information.

[marton]

In the 2022 Autumn Statement today, the Chancellor confirmed that the triple lock will be reinstated from April 2023. This means the State Pension will rise in line with September’s inflation rate – 10.1% – in the 2023-24 tax year.
This is the biggest ever increase to the State Pension and will be welcome news for pensioners.

	Quote:
	Chancellor unveils a plan for stability, growth, and public services. Tackling inflation is top of the priority list to stop it eating into paycheques and savings, and disrupting business growth plans. To protect the most vulnerable the Chancellor unveiled £26 billion of support for the cost of living including continued energy support, as well as 10.1% rises in benefits and the State Pension and the largest ever cash increase in the National Living Wage. Necessary and fair tax changes will raise around £25 billion, including an increase in the Energy Profits Levy and a new tax on the extraordinary profits of electricity generators. Decisions on spending set to save £30 billion whilst NHS and Social Care get access to £8 billion and schools get an additional £2.3 billion reflecting people’s priorities. -To deliver prosperity, he’s also committed to infrastructure projects including Sizewell C and Northern Powerhouse Rail, along with protecting the £20 billion R&D budget .

[John William]

	Quote:	marton
	In the 2022 Autumn Statement today, the Chancellor confirmed that the triple lock will be reinstated from April 2023. This means the State Pension will rise in line with September’s inflation rate – 10.1% – in the 2023-24 tax year. This is the biggest ever increase to the State Pension and will be welcome news for pensioners.

Irrespective of the 10.1 increase in April - in line with UK inflation figures for September, the British State Pension is still regarded as the worst
state pension in Euope, if not the whole developed world ?

Profile Pensions report - How much is UK State Pension compared to other countries

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	John William
	Irrespective of the 10.1 increase in April - in line with UK inflation figures for September, the British State Pension is still regarded as the worst state pension in Euope, if not the whole developed world ? Profile Pensions report - How much is UK State Pension compared to other countries

People can argue about the definition of GDP etc... but realistically when you are ranked 14 you can't expect much more, the money just is not there to make it happen.

[John William]

At last Whovians have tracked down Jacob Rees-Moggs time machine in London by which the honourable member for the 18th century
can keep in touch with his constituents.
Yes this Georgian style police box is even blessed with a large lamp which according to legend, is reputed to come from
Nelson's flagship, HMS Victory.

[bowlie]

Bregret?

Blatantly cherry-picking from the article.


LONDON — Six and a half years after voting to leave the European Union, three years after the formal departure, two years after signing a post-Brexit trade deal with Brussels and one month after installing its fourth prime minister since the 2016 referendum, Britain is caught in — what else? — another debate over Brexit.

The cause of the remorse is clear: Britain’s economic crisis, which is the gravest in a generation and worse than those of its European neighbors. Not all — or even most — of the problems are because of Brexit, but Britain’s vexed trade relationship with the rest of Europe indisputably plays a role. That makes it a ripe target for an anxious public casting about for something to blame.

The latest eruption of this never-ending drama began last week with an opinion poll that showed support for Brexit had fallen to its lowest level yet. Only 32 percent of those surveyed in the poll, by the firm YouGov, said that they thought leaving the European Union was a good idea; 56 percent said it was a mistake.

“A genie’s been let out of the bottle,” said Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. “What’s beginning is a much more fundamental debate. What is the long-run equilibrium between the two sides? Is it Switzerland? Is it Norway?” he added, referring to a country that has even closer ties to the European Union than Switzerland, also without being a member.

Calculating how much to blame Brexit for Britain’s woes is tricky, however, given all the other headwinds battering the country. Economists note that Britain has been cursed by stagnant growth since the financial crisis of 2009, a result of inadequate investment and slumping productivity.

In a forecast released last week alongside Mr. Sunak’s new budget, a fiscal watchdog group, the Office for Budget Responsibility, said that Brexit had exerted a “significant adverse impact” on Britain’s trade.


It is not an accident that public sentiment began to swing against Brexit a year ago, when Britain suffered an acute shortage of truck drivers, which caused delays in deliveries of fuel to gas stations and long lines of motorists. That ended a honeymoon earlier in the year, when the government claimed, dubiously, that its swift approval and rollout of a Covid vaccine was thanks to Brexit.
Since then, Britain has been gripped by double-digit inflation, rising interest rates and a recession that the Bank of England recently warned could last two years. Among the Group of 7 advanced countries, Britain is the only one with an economy that is smaller now than it was before the pandemic started. It was recently overtaken by India as the world’s fifth-largest economy.

“We can argue about the extent to which Brexit is responsible for Britain’s economic problems,” said John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, Scotland, and a leading British expert on polling. “But it is very difficult to convince people that a wonderful economic nirvana is coming around the corner because of Brexit.”

“Brexit wasn’t viewed through the lens of economics,” Professor Menon said. “It was viewed through culture or values. Now everything is economic, and while you can sell Brexit many ways, selling it as a boost to G.D.P. is a stretch.

[marton]

	Quote:	TonyClifton
	A trade deal between Japan and the UK has been agreed! One that goes beyond that signed between Japan and the EU, something many said simply wasn't possible!

And two years later

	Quote:
	The first major free trade agreement signed by Britain after Brexit has been branded a failure after new figures showed exports had fallen since it came into force. Liz Truss signed a “historic” deal with Japan as trade secretary in October 2020, describing it as a “landmark moment for Britain”. It was claimed it would boost trade by billions of pounds and help the UK recover from the pandemic. However, figures collated by the Department for International Trade show exports to Japan fell from £12.3bn to £11.9bn in the year to June 2022. Exports in goods fell 4.9% to £6.1bn and services fell 2% to £5.8bn.

Oh well, just another Brexit failure - we are getting accustomed to them.

[Jim2007]

The UK/Japan deal could NEVER have been better than the EU/Japan deal nor can any Canadian deal either. And if our Tony had been paying attention he'd have known that and would not have embarrassed himself!

The EU/Japan/Canadian deals all have a clause in them saying that neither party can grand a deal to a third country on better terms than the deal they made between themselves without both parties agreeing to it. These deals go further than any previous deals and if abused could provide backdoor access into the markets for third countries, this clause prevents that from happening.

The EU/Japan/Canadian deals represent the best deals on offer and the UK is not going to get any better offer.

[bossybaby]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The UK/Japan deal could NEVER have been better than the EU/Japan deal nor can any Canadian deal either. And if our Tony had been paying attention he'd have known that and would not have embarrassed himself! The EU/Japan/Canadian deals all have a clause in them saying that neither party can grand a deal to a third country on better terms than the deal they made between themselves without both parties agreeing to it.

It's called a Most Favoured Nation clause (MFN). It's used in all kinds of intellectual property licensing, too.

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The UK/Japan deal could NEVER have been better than the EU/Japan deal nor can any Canadian deal either. And if our Tony had been paying attention he'd have known that and would not have embarrassed himself! The EU/Japan/Canadian deals all have a clause in them saying that neither party can grand a deal to a third country on better terms than the deal they made between themselves without both parties agreeing to it. These deals go further than any previous deals and if abused could provide backdoor access into the markets for third countries, this clause prevents that from happening. The EU/Japan/Canadian deals represent the best deals on offer and the UK is not going to get any better offer.

Anybody who spends a lot of time on alt-right web sites has long ago lost connection with reality.

[John William]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The UK/Japan deal could NEVER have been better than the EU/Japan deal nor can any Canadian deal either. And if our Tony had been paying attention he'd have known that and would not have embarrassed himself! The EU/Japan/Canadian deals all have a clause in them saying that neither party can grand a deal to a third country on better terms than the deal they made between themselves without both parties agreeing to it. These deals go further than any previous deals and if abused could provide backdoor access into the markets for third countries, this clause prevents that from happening. The EU/Japan/Canadian deals represent the best deals on offer and the UK is not going to get any better offer.

Just don't say that the Brexit's were not warned ! ( of the consequences ) there were any number of esteemed, 'learned bodies' including the CBI, that told them it wouldn't work which the Tory Brexit's ignored or dismissed by saying well they would say that in view of their 'vested interests' in remaining in the EU.

As for Brexit Opportunities, I see no new Tory MP has been appointed as the Minister of Brexit Opportunities since Jacob Rees-Mogg resigned from the position. Instead the job of hunting down the ellusive Pimpernel, Oops ! ! ( Lol ) I mean hunting down those ellusive Brexit
Opportunities will be spread across other government departments, according to what the Tories told reporters from
the Independent.

They seek them here, they seek them there, those Tory Brexits seek them everywhere but no one can find those ellusive Brexit Opportunities. lol, lol.

The Independent - Brexit Opportunities role ditched with no replacement for Jacob Rees-Mogg

Gov.uk - Minister for Brexit Opportunities