The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[bowlie]

Ever time someone said “well what about?” The were shouted down with squealing of “Project Fear, Project Fear”. Even here on EF.

Perhaps we should begin discussing the possibilities of the Excited Kingdom rejoining the Union.

I think the vast majority of Member States would welcome such a possibility. Not all but most.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Ever time someone said “well what about?” The were shouted down with squealing of “Project Fear, Project Fear”. Even here on EF. Perhaps we should begin discussing the possibilities of the Excited Kingdom rejoining the Union. I think the vast majority of Member States would welcome such a possibility. Not all but most.

The only way back as has been stated several times now, is for the UK to accept the Euro and make whatever changes that are required to their democratic system to meet EU standards and includes a written constitution and a constitutional court. Do you see the UK agreeing to that?

And when it comes to any change in that position, then the states do have the right to make the decision. There are 52 parliaments that would have to agree to it plus the citizens of France, Denmark, Ireland and possibly The Netherlands (I can never figure out when the need to vote). Do you see the governments of Ireland or France holding such a divisive referendum, after all that has gone on over the past few years and what happens if one of them vote no?

The EEA agreement is not an option either because it basically is membership without any possibility to be a rule maker and on top of this you to be a member of EFTA and that has been already ruled out their members as the don't want a dominant large nation in their group, particularly one that might start a trade war with the EU.

And the leaves a Canada/Japan style deal with apparently the UK does not want since it would supposedly prevent them from doing those super deals they dream of.

[bowlie]

Well, let’s not say it can’t be done… Hungary is committed to the Euro and that ain’t gonna happen soon. The UK could agree to join subject to a referendum.

And does the pound even meet the requirements to join?

[John William]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The only way back as has been stated several times now, is for the UK to accept the Euro and make whatever changes that are required to their democratic system to meet EU standards and includes a written constitution and a constitutional court. Do you see the UK agreeing to that? And when it comes to any change in that position, then the states do have the right to make the decision. There are 52 parliaments that would have to agree to it plus the citizens of France, Denmark, Ireland and possibly The Netherlands (I can never figure out when the need to vote). Do you see the governments of Ireland or France holding such a divisive referendum, after all that has gone on over the past few years and what happens if one of them vote no? The EEA agreement is not an option either because it basically is membership without any possibility to be a rule maker and on top of this you to be a member of EFTA and that has been already ruled out their members as the don't want a dominant large nation in their group, particularly one that might start a trade war with the EU. And the leaves a Canada/Japan style deal with apparently the UK does not want since it would supposedly prevent them from doing those super deals they dream of.

I reckon the Brexit's in the British government would rather see the breakup of the United Kingdom than entertain the idea or rejoining the EU, EFTA or even having the same trading relationship that Switzerland enjoys with the EU.

If Scotland and the continued majority of the SNP, together with the 'like minded' Greens in the Scottish government are anything to go by; the UK Tory government are likely to see the breakup of the Union come to fruition, not to mention Northern Ireland.

Maybe the only stumbling block for an independent Scotland rejoining the EU could be Spain's reluctance to support their membership, in light of whether it could stir up trouble in Catalonia.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Well, let’s not say it can’t be done… Hungary is committed to the Euro and that ain’t gonna happen soon. The UK could agree to join subject to a referendum. And does the pound even meet the requirements to join?

Look if you want to have a serious discussion it starts with the facts - it is not possible to join the EU without meeting all of the membership rules and all of the current members must agree to it.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	John William
	I reckon the Brexit's in the British government would rather see the breakup of the United Kingdom than entertain the idea or rejoining the EU, EFTA or even having the same trading relationship that Switzerland enjoys with the EU. If Scotland and the continued majority of the SNP, together with the 'like minded' Greens in the Scottish government are anything to go by; the UK Tory government are likely to see the breakup of the Union come to fruition, not to mention Northern Ireland. Maybe the only stumbling block for an independent Scotland rejoining the EU could be Spain's reluctance to support their membership, in light of whether it could stir up trouble in Catalonia.

Scotland can get what it wants without joining the EU, it could join EFTA and access the EU via the EEA agreement the same as Norway and Spain could not prevent it.

[Biro]

Whilst the UK can rabbit on about re-joining, the main question is would the EU want to allow the UK to re-join and i think we all know the answer to that question, unequivocally !

[John William]

	Quote:	Biro
	Whilst the UK can rabbit on about re-joining, the main question is would the EU want to allow the UK to re-join and i think we all know the answer to that question, unequivocally !

I would petition the EU Parliament to say that any application for Britain to rejoin the EU will only be considered after Boris Johnson & Jacob Rees-Mogg have entered themselves and endured the ordeal of the Bushtucker trials in I'm a Celebrity . . . Get Me Out Of Here!

[bowlie]

	Quote:	Biro
	Whilst the UK can rabbit on about re-joining, the main question is would the EU want to allow the UK to re-join and i think we all know the answer to that question, unequivocally !

What do you mean when you say EU? If you mean EU Member States (Council) then I believe many MS would welcome the UK. Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, the BeNeLux, the Scandinavians and Finland. Germany is likely as is Italy, Spain and Austria.

France would be difficult but can be convinced. They too are getting tired of Brexit complications and being blamed when Brexit pokes the Brits in the eyes.

The rest likely would still favour it as a bigger, stronger union will ultimately help everyone.

If you mean the Commission, they are irrelevant in this. They will do what the MSs tell them to do.

And the Parliament is an elected assembly, they will favour strengthening of the Union.

Of course nothing is easy especially with all these players but it is not impossible.

[NotAllThere]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Scotland can get what it wants without joining the EU, it could join EFTA and access the EU via the EEA agreement the same as Norway and Spain could not prevent it.

Hmm. Maybe that's the Remainers secret plan. Break up the union into four little countries (or more), and then they can join EFTA.

[Biro]

	Quote:	bowlie
	What do you mean when you say EU? If you mean EU Member States (Council) then I believe many MS would welcome the UK. Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, the BeNeLux, the Scandinavians and Finland. Germany is likely as is Italy, Spain and Austria. France would be difficult but can be convinced. They too are getting tired of Brexit complications and being blamed when Brexit pokes the Brits in the eyes. The rest likely would still favour it as a bigger, stronger union will ultimately help everyone. If you mean the Commission, they are irrelevant in this. They will do what the MSs tell them to do. And the Parliament is an elected assembly, they will favour strengthening of the Union. Of course nothing is easy especially with all these players but it is not impossible.

All MS would extract a phenomenal price with conditions and payments, it will never work, they can't agree amongst themselves on simple things and the UK doesn't have the best reputation just right now.



The EU has worked out they are better off without the UK and they don't really need the UK in the club to function, so why allow a disruptive ex member re-join ?


Too much shit has been thrown around by both sides for it to work

[bowlie]

You said it wouldn’t work. But don’t explain why.

For example why wouldn’t the Netherlands, Ireland or Sweden want the UK to rejoin?

And when you say the “EU” has worked out they are better off without the UK could you quantify that? And explain what you mean by EU.

I realise that Brexit has been a big pain for MSs but that alone doesn’t mean they would be happier with the UK out than In.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	bowlie
	What do you mean when you say EU? If you mean EU Member States (Council) then I believe many MS would welcome the UK. Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, the BeNeLux, the Scandinavians and Finland. Germany is likely as is Italy, Spain and Austria.

Right, so you think Sinn Féin is going to vote to allow the UK to rejoin the EU..

That is how far you are from reality.

[Biro]

Bowlie, if you cannot see why it would be useless for anybody to try and explain it to you !


It has to be all the MS in unity for another country to join and believe me, with all the problems BREXIT has caused all the MS they would more than extract their pound of flesh.



It's not going to happen in our lifetime or if it does, the UK will become a vassal state with no say in matters and fully subjected to EU law drawn up and written to suit France and to a lesser extent Germany and other countries.

[marton]

	Quote:	Biro
	Whilst the UK can rabbit on about re-joining, the main question is would the EU want to allow the UK to re-join and i think we all know the answer to that question, unequivocally !

The answer is the EU will support it and there is a UK majority for it.

	Quote:
	Britons would now vote to rejoin the EU in a second referendum by a record 14-point margin, a new poll has found.

	Quote:
	Europe will appeal to future UK governments to rejoin EU, MEPs say

	Quote:
	Jean-Claude Juncker: I would help Britain rejoin the EU after Brexit

[Biro]

	Quote:	marton
	The answer is the EU will support it and there is a UK majority for it.

That is all the theory, wait until the practice kicks in, once the UK say they want to re-join and have the population behind them, the EU will extract a terrible price.


The EU only knows to well how disruptive the UK is.

[NotAllThere]

	Quote:	Biro
	That is all the theory, wait until the practice kicks in, once the UK say they want to re-join and have the population behind them, the EU will extract a terrible price.

And there we have it folks. The Brexiter Project Fear.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	Biro
	That is all the theory, wait until the practice kicks in, once the UK say they want to re-join and have the population behind them, the EU will extract a terrible price. The EU only knows to well how disruptive the UK is.

You still haven’t told us who you actually mean when you say EU. To me that’s approximately 447 million people.

Thank you.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Right, so you think Sinn Féin is going to vote to allow the UK to rejoin the EU.. That is how far you are from reality.

I bow to your superior knowledge of Irish politics, but AFAIK Sinn Féin is not a Member State. And could we dispense with personal digs? You may not like what I’m saying but play the ball, please. Or ignore me.

[John William]

The trouble with any aspirations for the British people to rejoin the EU after Brexit, is it's still being compounded by Tory Prime Ministers who forever harp on about the 'Good Old Days' of british greatness ( that doesn't exist since the fall of the British Empire & with it - the Tories cherished british trading empire ! )

A typical example of Tories forever looking into the past through the ERG's Kaleidoscope of greatness ( from JRM's days of yore ) is Rishi Sunak and he's It's time for Rishi campaign video where Rishi seems to have hired British Pathe News as his advertising agency advisors.

A far cry from the forward thinking Margaret Thatcher who hired Saatchi & Saatchi to promote her bid to become Prime Minister in General Elections.

How does this work?