The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	"whether the UK stays within the single market." So far as I understand Brexit can only be implemented by triggering Article 50? There is an article here.

yes, a50 is the most logical mechanism.

during the 2 year window is when the terms of that exit needs to be formally hashed out e.g. whether UK stays in single market.

though i would imagine it to be prudent to have some idea what what the uk wants to achieve and also some talks with EU before notifying under a50

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	About "if they just want to trade with the EU outside of the preferential single market, then of course they don't need to comply with the single market rules" Indeed, but then the UK will face EU import tariffs. Possibly UK self testing of product compliance with EU standards will no longer accepted by the EU; I assume there will be a transition period. Then there is the EU import quota and import licensing system that might be brought into play, for example, Switzerland has to comply - - link to EU database here.

yes. potentially the UK and EU could face import tariffs, but i would very surprised if finally it is agreed that tariffs should apply. i would imagine UK/EU trade to be tariff free. though tariffs wouldn't be a big issue anyway.

it's an interesting time for brexit since world trade seems to be conducted more and more through preferential trade areas and countries seem to be turning away from trade to a more protectionist stance.

it remains to be seen whether the UK would fair better in or out of the EU in future scenarios.

i find it interesting that the EU didn't negotiate its free trade deals such that they would survive for member nations in the event that they leave. this would have made much more sense IMO.

EDIT: you might find this chart interesting:

http://public.tableau.com/profile/ga...nce/Dashboard1

uk has net ~10bn of car imports which they could slap ~10% tariffs on and ~2bn of net wine imports which could have ~32% tariffs.

[Phil_MCR]

For those that don't know the difference between EU, single market, customs union or free trade area, this old article may be of interest:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/da...s-meaningless/

FWIW, the 'leave' camp are divided as to what form a brexit should take. UKIP are in the FTA camp.

the EU concluded a free trade agreement with south korea not too long ago. they didn't insist on FMOP on that deal...

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	We could see International companies shift their operations to Ireland to remain in an English speaking EU country.

They are already ear marking office space. In fact having investigated the option, some may decide to setup shop there in any case - office space around the financial services centre is excellent and attractively priced.

[lewton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I want to address this separately... You're Greek living in Germany. You're more than entitled to your opinion, but I would like to ask. I'm very aware of your views on Greek politics and economics, but on July 5th last year, what was your back up plan if the result had led to a Grexit? I know the referendum wouldn't have automatically resulted in a Grexit, and I spent two weeks in Greece at that time listening to all the opposing views (OH's mum's birthday is 5th July so we were in Athens for the referendum, but also went to Aegina and Crete over that period.) We spoke to literally hundreds of people, including quite a few Greek ex-pats who were living in Germany. Regardless of whether people were voting Nai or Oxi, I only met one family who wanted out of the EU. Personally, I feel like I'm having the same arguments and hearing the same views as last year, but without the element of the austerity measures. Makes me wonder which country will be next? Spain? Portugal? Italy?

I really do not want to discuss Grexit in this thread and Greece's backup plan in case of a Grexit.

Let's accept that Greece had no backup plan whatsoever and unicorns were going to die throughout Greece after a Grexit.
What does it have to do with the UK?
One is a failed and bankrupt state, the other is a country with a fairly well functioning economy, an administration that does not punish people for being successful and strong ties to its ex colonies.
I really do not hear the same arguments from last year at all with respect to a Brexit. At least I personally am certain that I do not express the same arguments as last year.

Now, if you want me to tell you my backup plan for a potential Grexit back in 2015, you will have to revive some other dead thread, ask me there, and hope that I will find the motivation to answer. Seriously, it makes me sad to discuss what should have happened in my country, so I can't promise I will get back to that discussion.

Instead, if you want, you can ask me why the hell a Greek living in Germany is pro Brexit. This I would be glad to answer.

Without having read all of the previous posts.. I'm confused. A bit like the Scottish independence referendum, there seemed to be no clear final plan on what either side was actually planning to do.

Are we talking full exit from EU, closed borders, no trade, end of agreements on tax and pensions.. What happens to citizens abroad, even people on holiday when the door the closes, what about us who work and live here, renewing passports, the list is endless.

How can one make an informed vote without this sort of info? When will the full detail become available.. Or never like the scottish vote.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

It won't because the government, having supposedly got what it wanted, is campaigning to stay in. Until the actual event (UK votes to leave) no one can say what will happen in the future. Article 50 gives up to 2 years for the UK to complete the exit so everything would have to be renegotiated/organised in that period. The government doesn't have a Plan B because it never wanted one in the first place, it's always wanted Plan A and hasn't even considered Plan B.

Everything isn't going to come to a halt immediately if the vote is "no". That's about as much "detail" as you're going to get.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	lewton
	Instead, if you want, you can ask me why the hell a Greek living in Germany is pro Brexit. This I would be glad to answer.

I appreciate you're post and would be interested know the answer?

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Such sure bets often don't materialise, which is why fund managers always underperform, much of the risk premium is priced in today. If the vote is in favour of staying the £ will jump Of course if you held your money in a selection of international stocks, then if the £ falls the value of the stocks would risen £ terms. Never know why people hold much cash in any particular currency.

The cool voice of reason

[Sbrinz]

This is my view on the upcoming "Britain & the EU" referendum.

The badly informed British public will be asked in July to choose between two completely different management concepts.

In: a well tested but boring system, where everything is brought down to a common formula by skilled professional administrators.

Out: a new untried exciting system where anything goes, driven by the "upper classes", who have as much knowledge about running a country as can be gleaned from an old uncle, who was once "very big" in Africa.

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	In: a well tested but boring system, where everything is brought down to a common formula by skilled professional administrators.

Do you actually believe this?

[Chuff]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Do you actually believe this?

It wouldn't surprise me if he did, you see similarly ignorant reader comments in The Daily mail articles.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	This is my view on the upcoming "Britain & the EU" referendum. The badly informed British public will be asked in July to choose between two completely different management concepts. In: a well tested but boring system, where everything is brought down to a common formula by skilled professional administrators. Out: a new untried exciting system where anything goes, driven by the "upper classes", who have as much knowledge about running a country as can be gleaned from an old uncle, who was once "very big" in Africa.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Do you actually believe this?

Never mind one part, do you believe the whole thing? What do you think is going to drastically change government-wise if we vote to leave? It'll still be the same people holding office and the same people in the civil service.

[Sbrinz]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Do you actually believe this?

Who is the better manager, a man who attended a top European management school, or a British politician? Get real!

The two systems are very different, that is why the British are always fearful of the EU: the British politicians told them to be very afraid!

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Who is the better manager, a man who attended a top European management school, or a British politician? Get real!

The fact you've just made this comparison suggests to me that you've no idea what this is all about.

Let me elaborate. Neither attending a a top European management school nor being a British politician make you more or less qualified to run a country.

People are also not voting on the future of who will run Britain.

[Sbrinz]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The fact you've just made this comparison suggests to me that you've no idea what this is all about.

Ha ha ha. History will prove me correct.

The EU was constructed so that politicians cannot change something to suit their egos. The system can only be changed by mutual consent, and while most of Europe are grumbling, they have no better ideas. A leap in the dark, or a jump towards a shining future, carries enormous risk, and the risks are being presented to the British public by exactly those people whom are most likely to benefit financially.

Work to change the system, but don't destroy it!

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Ha ha ha. History will prove me correct. The EU was constructed so that politicians cannot change something to suit their egos. The system can only be changed by mutual consent. Work to change the system, but don't destroy it!

The EU was created ENTIRELY as a result politician's egos.

I think you really would like have liked to live in Soviet Russia.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The EU was created ENTIRELY as a result politician's egos. I think you really would like have liked to live in Soviet Russia.

It was created as a common market which is what I voted for many years ago.

Of course the politicians (like many religious leaders) have interpreted it into something else that we did not expect when we originally voted.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Who is the better manager, a man who attended a top European management school, or a British politician? Get real! The two systems are very different, that is why the British are always fearful of the EU: the British politicians told them to be very afraid!

Judging by the number of cock-ups from managers at the OH's firm here in Switzerland I'd say the British politican!

[lewton]

	Quote:	lewton
	Instead, if you want, you can ask me why the hell a Greek living in Germany is pro Brexit. This I would be glad to answer.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I appreciate you're post and would be interested know the answer?

The reasons are two.

Before I get to them, I have to say that if I was British and cared about my country I would probably be against Brexit (I can't say for sure because I haven't thoroughly investigated all the factors, but infacts.org looks to make more sense than the pro Brexit campaign).

Now, from my actual point of view, I would like a Brexit to happen for two reasons:
1. To provide a long needed shock to the Brussels establishment. Show them that their fat salaries are not guaranteed if they keep living in their bubble ignoring the people.
2. I am a bit sick of the British press and British people I meet randomly who will start whining about the EU this and the EU that (usually it is not the case with British expats I meet in Europe, but sometimes it is). It's like a failed marriage, let's get over it in friendly terms and each one can take their path.