The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	jacek
	Then according to this, they all are going to be caught in a vicious circle, no? European Union leaders have warned that the UK must honour the principle of free movement of people if it wants to retain access to the single market after it leaves the bloc. Brexit: EU says no compromise on freedom of movement http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36659900

Nope, because the UK will have access to the single market even if no deal is reached with the EU.

There's a big difference between access to the single market and being a member of the single market.

The UK can access the single market under WTO rules without agreeing to anything with the EU. Whether it be free movement, or payment into single market funds.

[jacek]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	Nope, because the UK will have access to the single market even if no deal is reached with the EU. There's a big difference between access to the single market and being a member of the single market. The UK can access the single market under WTO rules without agreeing to anything with the EU. Whether it be free movement, or payment into single market funds.

The decision to leave the EU has pushed the UK into uncharted trading territory – but several options exist.

What are they?

(1) The UK could try to negotiate Norwegian-style membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), which would grant it almost full access to the single market while letting it strike trade deals without the rest of the EU. However, it would have to pay into the EU budget.

(2) The “Swiss” option – based on a multitude of bilateral trade deals – would grant partial access to the single market in exchange for a smaller EU budget contribution.

(3) The UK could also conduct trade under World Trade Organisation rules, but would face tariffs on imports.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	jacek
	The decision to leave the EU has pushed the UK into uncharted trading territory – but several options exist. What are they? (1) The UK could try to negotiate Norwegian-style membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), which would grant it almost full access to the single market while letting it strike trade deals without the rest of the EU. However, it would have to pay into the EU budget. (2) The “Swiss” option – based on a multitude of bilateral trade deals – would grant partial access to the single market in exchange for a smaller EU budget contribution. (3) The UK could also conduct trade under World Trade Organisation rules, but would face tariffs on imports.

#1 and #2 are out if we say that the principle is of no free movement. Of course, it depends if we have a pro-Remain government which tries to maintain the closest ties with the EU without being in the EU. #1 could be the way we go on the basis that it is the easiest way to ignore the referendum without technically ignoring it.

Assuming that a government really wants to take us out of free movement obligations and the EU do not budge on it, then I suspect we will fall under #3 simply as it is the default option. Tariffs will apply, but these will be minor and easily covered by the tariffs we would collect.

A fourth option would be to drop tariffs and simply have a free trade zone. This would probably make sense as maintaining the few tariffs between UK and EU would be pointless red tape.

EDIT: I should add that access for financial services is an area which I know little about. A single market for services was never fully developed in the EU and there remains various barriers. You hear discussions on passporting rights etc. It's not clear to me what deals can be reached on this element and assuming no deal, what needs other options are available and in the worst case, what may need to be moved out of London into an EU jurisdiction. I'm sure banks will be doing a lot of analysis and lobbying accordingly.

[marton]

UK stock market is back to where it was before the referendum result. Sterling is around 9% down against the US$ and 6% versus the euro.

The EU leaders are making strong statements about Brexit but it is not clear who they are talking to; nobody in the UK seems to feel empowered to reply or maybe do not believe any response is necessary.
Somehow illustrates a lack of EU power; they talk but no actions planned.

John Kerry, the US secretary of state, raised doubts on Wednesday as to whether Brexit will ever happen, suggesting most leave campaigners do not truly believe in Britain’s divorce from the EU and do not know how to achieve it.
I can sympathise with the last part of Kerry's statement, there is certainly extremely little said about "next steps".

[jacek]

Well, the US worried about their trade with the EU and average folk feels being screwed by uncertainty of the current situation. Although, the markets came back to pre Brexit state on average but this whole jazz leaves a bad taste in one's mouth and damage has been done.

Brexit: Obama warns on global growth after British vote
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36669530

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	UK stock market is back to where it was before the referendum result. Sterling is around 9% down against the US$ and 6% versus the euro. The EU leaders are making strong statements about Brexit but it is not clear who they are talking to; nobody in the UK seems to feel empowered to reply or maybe do not believe any response is necessary. Somehow illustrates a lack of EU power; they talk but no actions planned. John Kerry, the US secretary of state, raised doubts on Wednesday as to whether Brexit will ever happen, suggesting most leave campaigners do not truly believe in Britain’s divorce from the EU and do not know how to achieve it. I can sympathise with the last part of Kerry's statement, there is certainly extremely little said about "next steps".

Little is going to happen with the EU before the new PM is in place and internal UK preparations are made. Let's see if the UK throws the A50 switch shortly after.

IMO, the delay is good. There's plenty of emotion around and a few months delay to digest will allow for more level-headed discussions.

[Chuff]

Already the FTSE 100 is back, and there are mumblings that the EU is "open to discussion" on free movement.

I am pretty optimistic that in 3 months, we will be as stable as we were pre-Brexit. In 1 year, we will be wondering what all of the fuss was about. In 2 years, we will be feeling a new sense of national pride as we start to see ourselves as a sovereign independent nation that is part of Europe, and not subject to it.

[Phil_MCR]

Let's see, there's bound to be more volatility ahead. E.g. the market will react again when (if?) a50 is formally invoked.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Already the FTSE 100 is back, and there are mumblings that the EU is "open to discussion" on free movement. I am pretty optimistic that in 3 months, we will be as stable as we were pre-Brexit. In 1 year, we will be wondering what all of the fuss was about. In 2 years, we will be feeling a new sense of national pride as we start to see ourselves as a sovereign independent nation that is part of Europe, and not subject to it.

I personally can hardly wait for the release of the "New Robin", "New Allegro", and the "New Cortina".

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Faltrad
	Just for the record: Not everything is translated into all languages, it's a very flexible system with a huge amount of work being concentrated on the main languages English, German, French. I don't have statistics, I just know a Danish translater for the EU, Denmark does not demand the entire documentation in Danish and a large part is translated not in Brussel but in Copenhagen paid by Denmark's national budget when the European regulations are integrated into national law. Very little is actually translated into Romanian, Latvian or Finnish in Brussel to say the least, let alone Irish, Maltese or Estonian. EDIT From here: http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/translation/...g/index_fr.htm Only approx. a third of the documentation is translated into all 24 languages. Some internal documents are not translated if they are written originally in either English, French or German. Other documentation only exist in the languages concerned by the matter.

We're supposed to know 2 foreign languages as per schools' curriculum. No big deal for most people you mentioned.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	greenmount
	We're supposed to know 2 foreign languages as per schools' curriculum. No big deal for most people you mentioned.

Lemme think... English, Scouse, Geordie... You mean I've wasted my time learning German?

[Sbrinz]

	Quote:	greenmount
	We're supposed to know 2 foreign languages as per schools' curriculum. No big deal for most people you mentioned.

But aren't we supposed to be discussing the aspects of Brexit for the UK?

After watching news programmes on TV yesterday, I feel the EU is very annoyed with the UK and are not going to co-operate with any negotiation at all. I don't think the EU will move to a compromise in any form, there are too many groups in Europe looking to break away and become famous for 5 minutes. Either the UK remains in the EU, or it pays WTO tariffs.

Britain needs the EU migration as they have not trained enough doctors, teachers, nurses etc. The average UK worker is not prepared to start work at dawn picking fruit and vegetables either.

I think Brexit has taken the UK one step sideways and two steps backwards.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	Lemme think... English, Scouse, Geordie... You mean I've wasted my time learning German?

Haha, no.
I think Faltrad knows very well what I meant. 2 modern languages thought in school is the norm in those countries that don't benefit from EU financed translations.

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	But aren't we supposed to be discussing the aspects of Brexit for the UK? .

Yep, you're right. Apologies for the OT.

[Odile]

Farage would have plenty of time to learn more:

https://www.facebook.com/peteacousti...4913220902538/

plenty of time on his hands.

[amogles]

	Quote:	jacek
	Brexit: Obama warns on global growth after British vote

The world's economy is in turmoil. And the most important country will, come November, vote between a delusional megalomaniac who makes Zaphod Beeblebrox look like the Dalai Lama in comparison, and a spiteful confrontational do-no-gooder who is firmly in the hands of the neocon lobbyists, so the world is clearly headed for hard times, but Barack "go to the end of the queue" Obama tells us it's all the fault of the Brexit?

Yeah. Right.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	Little is going to happen with the EU before the new PM is in place and internal UK preparations are made. Let's see if the UK throws the A50 switch shortly after. IMO, the delay is good. There's plenty of emotion around and a few months delay to digest will allow for more level-headed discussions.

"Little is going to happen with the EU before the new PM" Of course, but all those people who were telling us how great Brexit would be have gone very quiet; I mean there is practically nothing about next steps.
Except for Boris wrote an article in the Telegraph last Monday where he said immigration was not what people voted on and hinted he was for free movement continuing.

I wrote "Sterling is around 9% down against the US$ and 6% versus the euro." What a difference a day makes (Dinah Washington song). In this case if we compare sterling with the exchange rates a month ago we find Sterling down ca. 7% versus the $ and 10% versus the euro. Either way we are not at the 20% that was forecast and, as posted, if/when A50 is invoked then likely more turbulence.

For us UK pensioners lower sterling means lower pensions; hopefully higher imports will trigger UK inflation and generate automatic pension increases

[FunnyBone]

Some of you were wondering about a Frexit, and here is an(other) article on it. Happy reading
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-d...ocial_facebook

[lewton]

	Quote:	FunnyBone
	Some of you were wondering about a Frexit, and here is an(other) article on it. Happy reading http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-d...ocial_facebook

I would love to see her president of France.
I would love to see the faces of all those bureaucrats in Brussels. They will even miss Farage.

[dodgyken]

Have we all not panicked enough?

Time to focus on the important things:

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	"Little is going to happen with the EU before the new PM" Of course, but all those people who were telling us how great Brexit would be have gone very quiet; I mean there is practically nothing about next steps. Except for Boris wrote an article in the Telegraph last Monday where he said immigration was not what people voted on and hinted he was for free movement continuing. I wrote "Sterling is around 9% down against the US$ and 6% versus the euro." What a difference a day makes (Dinah Washington song). In this case if we compare sterling with the exchange rates a month ago we find Sterling down ca. 7% versus the $ and 10% versus the euro. Either way we are not at the 20% that was forecast and, as posted, if/when A50 is invoked then likely more turbulence. For us UK pensioners lower sterling means lower pensions; hopefully higher imports will trigger UK inflation and generate automatic pension increases

Next steps are:

1. Get a new PM
2. Get Whitehall working on a lot of analysis
3. From that agree form that a Brexit will take and negotiation strategy
4. Trigger A50
5. Begin negotiations with the EU
6. Get a deal or revert to WTO model