The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Loz1983
	May also launched her bid this morning.

May has a solid approach:

"Brexit is Brexit"
"No attempts to remain or re-enter"
"No second referendum"
"No general election until 2020"
"No Article 50 until the British negotiating strategy is agreed and clear. No Article 50 until at least next year"

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	Phos
	"No Article 50 until the British negotiating strategy is agreed and clear. "

Does that mean that the leavers did a whole campaign with no idea about what they actually want to achieve with the EU when they leave? Genuine question, no sarcasm here.
I actually gave the leavers more credit than that, I was convinced they knew what they wanted and would be happy to start getting it the day after the vote.

	Quote:	Faltrad
	Does that mean that the leavers did a whole campaign with no idea about what they actually want to achieve with the EU when they leave? Genuine question, no sarcasm here. I actually gave the leavers more credit than that, I was convinced they knew what they wanted and would be happy to start getting it the day after the vote.

Not at all. i'm sure many had there own ideas. The operating word here is "agreed and clear".

[moggy]

An aside to this thread, Regular life goes on in UK, e.g.

Tuesday 5th July 2016, there is a (NUT) National Union of Teachers Strike

for the day

[Mikers]

	Quote:	marton
	From the first paragraph in the first link "Since Friday, however, the tune has changed and he [Obama] assured the special relationship between the countries hasn’t suffered. He hasn’t mentioned queues (a British word that raised suspicions it was a Remain campaign plant) since. This is untrue; The White House has restated its position that Britain would be at the back of the queue when it comes to making trade deals with the US, in the wake of the Brexit vote.

out of interest, who is in the queue at the moment ? do we have anyone we can bribe to let us push in ? or maybe we can pay homeless person to queue for us like people do for Apple's latest gizmo release days ?

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	Mikers
	out of interest, who is in the queue at the moment ? do we have anyone we can bribe to let us push in ? or maybe we can pay homeless person to queue for us like people do for Apple's latest gizmo release days ?

Hmn, Not sure of the order, but my guess would be

Canada, Mexico, China, EU, big gap, Russia

Seeing as you already have close ties to the EU, try offering them some money.

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	Phos
	Not at all. i'm sure many had there own ideas. The operating word here is "agreed and clear".

So they knew in an disagreed and unclear way. OK, I take your word for it. Coordinating positions is key here, the smarter move is to do it before the vote, but it's never too late. Good luck to them.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	From the first paragraph in the first link "Since Friday, however, the tune has changed and he [Obama] assured the special relationship between the countries hasn’t suffered. He hasn’t mentioned queues (a British word that raised suspicions it was a Remain campaign plant) since. This is untrue; The White House has restated its position that Britain would be at the back of the queue when it comes to making trade deals with the US, in the wake of the Brexit vote. Source

He refers to Obama. The link refers to a Whitehouse spokesman.

So they are both true.

Clearly Obama has not re-iterated and instead has left a spokesman to 'maintain face'.

Let's see how things go. I would expect that the UK could conclude a deal with the US faster than the EU could.

[SOBEIT]

Did not see that coming - BJ not running for PM.

[Blueangel]

BoJo Out! Phew!

Boris just said he will not stand for PM. Smart man, and a very wise decision. Like I said, he is better suited providing ideological support in the background. Perhaps another day.

	Quote:	Faltrad
	So they knew in an disagreed and unclear way. OK, I take your word for it. Coordinating positions is key here, the smarter move is to do it before the vote, but it's never too late. Good luck to them.

A referendum is a binary Yes/No decision that is used for direction to take. It rarely if ever contains actual instructions for implementation.

[Chuff]

WTF, Johnson has withdrawn his leadership bid! http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...eadership-bids

Massive GOve / May plot methinks. May will be the next PM.

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	Phos
	A referendum is a binary Yes/No decision that is used for direction to take. It rarely if ever contains actual instructions for implementation.

You are so right. See SVP/UDC/PPS initiatives.
I belong to the "cool" Europeans who can wait for the internal crisis in the UK to be settled because there is no negotiations to be had with a bunch of people still in shock.
That being said, I would be very disappointed if this little game ended up with UK getting back through the window what voters just threw out of the door. Disappointed is an understatement, I'm trying to be British about it.

P.S. I'm getting better at using passive voice in English, aren't I?

[amogles]

	Quote:	Faltrad
	So they knew in an disagreed and unclear way. OK, I take your word for it. Coordinating positions is key here, the smarter move is to do it before the vote, but it's never too late. Good luck to them.

not necessarily.

If you have different groups all being in favour of an exit but having different views of what to do after, it may be better to team together for the vote and then work the small stuff out after rather than vice versa.

It's like having a discussion at home

1) shall we repaint the living room?
2) what colour?

If you discuss point 2 before point 1 you may get lost in bitching and nothing will ever happen.

And remember the Brexit camp had a broad range of support going from the extreme left all the way to the extreme right with lots of support from the middle too. All of those groups had different reasons to want a Brexit so nobody would have been able to speak on behalf of them all.

	Quote:	Faltrad
	You are so right. See SVP/UDC/PPS initiatives. I belong to the "cool" Europeans who can wait for the internal crisis in the UK to be settle because there is no negotiations to be had with a bunch of people still in shock. That being said, I would be very disappointed if this little game ended up with UK getting back through the window what voters just threw out of the door. Disappointed is an understatement, I'm trying to be British about it.

Ja, ja! Soothe yourself!

	Quote:	SOBEIT
	Did not see that coming - BJ not running for PM.

Several commentators, including a couple in this thread, suggested that, canny as he is, this would not be the right time for him. He doesn't actually want us to leave the EU, for example, but having spearheaded the leave campaign would have been expected to push in that direction, whereas sitting on the sidelines for now he can let someone take over the unenviable task of leading a government who've publicly committed to honouring the referendum outcome but have no real desire or intention to actually leave the EU.

Quite possibly he may be thinking of pushing for a properly renegotiated EU membership package, which if it succeeds would vindicate the whole leave campaign and put him in a strong position to take all the credit, while if it fails he wouldn't be the one taking the blame. Leave that to the sacrificial lamb in the shape of Michael Gove.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	Chuff
	WTF, Johnson has withdrawn his leadership bid! http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...eadership-bids Massive GOve / May plot methinks. May will be the next PM.

Not surprising to me, he is goofy, but not an idiot.

Not a big fan of conspiracy theories myself.

Ah well JW - here it is in a nutshell- as shared on FB:

"So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.

Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.

Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful.
Clear?"

[Mikers]

	Quote:
	Several commentators, including a couple in this thread, suggested that, canny as he is, this would not be the flight time for him. He doesn't actually want us to leave the EU, for example, but having spearheaded the leave campaign would have been expected to push in that direction, whereas sitting on the sidelines for now he can let someone take over the unenviable task of leading a government who've publicly committed to honouring the referendum outcome but have no real desire or intention to actually leave the EU. Quite possibly he may be thinking of pushing for a properly renegotiated EU membership package, which if it succeeds would vindicate the whole leave campaign and put him in a strong position to take all the credit, while if it fails he wouldn't be the one taking the blame. Leave that to the sacrificial lamb in the shape of Michael Gove.

ditto. he never wanted to leave, he wants to be PM and he's playing it perfectly. whoever is PM now has an impossible mandate where the people want what the country doesnt need and wont (I would say) implement. He has moved from being "the mayor" though up to being the next prime minister in waiting after whoever takes on this bag of shit that will be handling the next few years. boris will take a top job now, Home Sec, Foreign Sec, something like that and will be in prime position to slip into the drivers seat once Gove or May pass the baton, which could easily happen at hte next election if labour do something sensible for once (like get David Miliband back in) and then win in 2020. Boris's time then in 2025.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	Hmn, Not sure of the order, but my guess would be Canada, Mexico, China, EU, big gap, Russia Seeing as you already have close ties to the EU, try offering them some money.

good idea, perhaps 350 million a week would do it ?