The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[lewton]

Poor Boris.

	Quote:
	Ah well JW - here it is in a nutshell- as shared on FB: "So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them. Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead. Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful. Clear?"

What's the word. Déjà vu? Dementia?

	Quote:	Faltrad
	Does that mean that the leavers did a whole campaign with no idea about what they actually want to achieve with the EU when they leave? Genuine question, no sarcasm here. I actually gave the leavers more credit than that, I was convinced they knew what they wanted and would be happy to start getting it the day after the vote.

I honestly don't think they expected to win, but were simply hoping for a close-run result that would leave DC in an uncomfortable position and leave the door open for a leadership challenge.

British politics at the moment seems more than ever about internal rivalries within both main parties, and not at all about what the voters want, so the leave campaign leaders have all been working hard on how to get the best, personally, of what's best for them; little thought given to trying to implement the expressed will of the public.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	What's the word. Déjà vu? Dementia?

That's 3 words- been very busy this morning, sadly- so perhaps missed it.

[Faltrad]

	Quote:
	I honestly don't think they expected to win, (...) British politics at the moment seems more than ever about internal rivalries.

That's sad.
I've just heard Th. May on telly, and she seems to at least have understood what a referendum is. No second vote, no getting in by the back door etc. Merkel and Holland said exactly the same last tuesday. No disagreement there.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	He refers to Obama. The link refers to a Whitehouse spokesman. So they are both true. Clearly Obama has not re-iterated and instead has left a spokesman to 'maintain face'. Let's see how things go. I would expect that the UK could conclude a deal with the US faster than the EU could.

"So they are both true." Ah so UK is not at the back of the queue to talk to the US about trade and simultaneously UK is at "the back of the queue". Thanks for clarifying.
Whoever spoke the words, "back of the queue" is now the official US position. Contrary to the link quoted.

"I would expect that the UK could conclude a deal with the US faster than the EU could." This I can agree with; I would not want to guess how many decades this could take

[Chuff]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Boris Johnson has dropped out of the Conservative pool of wannabee Prime Ministers! http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36672591

Wow, you're fast.

[lewton]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Wow, you're fast.

I was first:

	Quote:	lewton
	Poor Boris.

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	BoJo Out! Phew!

	Quote:	Chuff
	WTF, Johnson has withdrawn his leadership bid! http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...eadership-bids Massive GOve / May plot methinks. May will be the next PM.

As Odile posted many posts ago; UK PM is a poison Chalice. Whoever gets to be PM will eventually be seen as a failure and the job will be vacant again.
Hopefully by then the confusion around Brexit next steps will be history and Boris can come in as the saviour

[marton]

Amusing article in the Guardian today.
Essentially as the referendum was not legally binding then it could be that the UK government would be acting unlawfully by leaving the EU.
The grounds are that such a move would alter every bodies legal rights and someone impacted could theoretically ask for a judicial review.
As an example, somebody who wants to work in the EU but believes Brexit will stop their free movement.

As we have seen in Germany, such requests usually fail because the relevant court tends to go with the flow

Source

[mirfield]

	Quote:	mirfield
	Boris's body language strikes me as somebody who never expected to win. Or particularly wanted it; put up a good show, lose gracefully (he managed a plucky close second in an unwinnable race after all), make friends with Dave again and take over the party in a couple of years, ready for the next election. Now he has to see how he can avoid the poison chalice of pressing or not pressing the A50 button. Plans, mice, men, 'n' all that.

OMG! I don't think I've ever been right before

	Quote:	marton
	Amusing article in the Guardian today. Essentially as the referendum was not legally binding then it could be that the UK government would be acting unlawfully by leaving the EU. The grounds are that such a move would alter every bodies legal rights and someone impacted could theoretically ask for a judicial review. As an example, somebody who wants to work in the EU but believes Brexit will stop their free movement. As we have seen in Germany, such requests usually fail because the relevant court tends to go with the flow Source

If an attempt is made to block Brexit then there'll be massive consequences. It's also a certain way to ensure UKIP will be one of the major parties come the next election.

[grumpygrapefruit]

So Boris pulled out. A pity his father didn't.

[PaddyG]

	Quote:	marton
	as odile posted many posts ago; the england football manager is a poison chalice. Whoever gets to be manager will eventually be seen as a failure and the job will be vacant again.

ftfy

[Phil_MCR]

so who's going to do a poll for who will be the next PM?

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	marton
	Amusing article in the Guardian today. Essentially as the referendum was not legally binding then it could be that the UK government would be acting unlawfully by leaving the EU. The grounds are that such a move would alter every bodies legal rights and someone impacted could theoretically ask for a judicial review. As an example, somebody who wants to work in the EU but believes Brexit will stop their free movement. As we have seen in Germany, such requests usually fail because the relevant court tends to go with the flow Source

Marton,

The argument doesn't hold.
"First, the original motivation for the holding of a referendum seems not to have been the public interest, but the particular interest of a political party."

Brexit was promised publicly during the election, the people then voted for that party (i.e. expressed their interest).

Wrong tree, stop barking.

It's like GoT.

May will be PM, I reckon, to counter balance the unsettling power of Sturgeon in the North, and the growing unrest and impatience of Merkel in the east.

To those complaining about the lies of the Leave campaign. Remember this one?

"There is no prospect of Turkey joining the EU for decades"

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36672242
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/sta...34304196313088

And here's the draft basis for an EU Army:

http://eeas.europa.eu/statements-eea...0628_02_en.htm

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	It's like GoT. May will be PM, I reckon, to counter balance the unsettling power of Sturgeon in the North, and the growing unrest and impatience of Merkel in the east.

So Sturgeon is Sansa Stark, May is Cersei and Merkel is Daenerys?

Thanks for that Merkel image I cannot unimagine.

	Quote:	Swisstree
	It's like GoT. May will be PM, I reckon, to counter balance the unsettling power of Sturgeon in the North, and the growing unrest and impatience of Merkel in the east.

As long as it's not Gove.


I reckon this was the long game all along - they're all great mates aren't they? Cameron, Johnson and Gove? May was keeping out of everything so obviously that she had to be the main contender.


I still stand by what I said before: the leave lot didn't expect to win and are as shocked as everyone else and are now scrabbling to devise some kind of policy/plan/jigsaw puzzle to move forward. At the moment it's more like a giant game of Snakes and Ladders, or Twister. Last Thursday was Jenga.