The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Sbrinz]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	So you lived in the UK during the period of the oil crisis, stagflation and union battles and the main problem was a long lead time on computer memory? I'd expect things to be considerably better than that then

No that was just symptomatic, that the UK couldn't deliver a basic item that was available on the streets of Texas. Did I mention that at the sight of a recession all the wholesalers stopped buying components, and we had to import resistors from Germany? Do you remember the sugar shortage? How about the toilet roll shortage (no joke!) ? It was exasperating working there, and very refreshing to work in Germany where everything was well organised.

Have things changed in the UK? I expect so, but there will always be crooks hoping to make money by creating a shortage. As part of a larger market, the EU, this cannot happen.

I am not happy to see that speculators are stalking the pound, I hope you didn't do a deal with them Phil!

[dodgyken]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Have things changed in the UK? I expect so, but there will always be crooks hoping to make money by creating a shortage. As part of a larger market, the EU, this cannot happen.

Did that autocorrect from Glencore??

[greenmount]

	Quote:
	Think what you wish about Juncker- but he is absolutely spot on here: https://www.facebook.com/Channel4New...5017416242868/ tragically!

Spot on, and the term describes a lot of others here.

	Quote:	marton
	"Therefore your criticising their decision to do so is effectively implying they are stupid for putting their own interests ahead of those of educated rich people?" No, in my view they were stupid to vote for something which is actually against their own interests. We have already seen the currency fall which increases the costs of imports; now who will that cost increase impact more - the rich or the poor?

Here, here. I'm glad you haven't been called "wanker", "arrogant"....and what not. Where's that raging guy who popped up in this thread only to make some insults, brag about him being a politician and then disappeared...

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	I expect so, but there will always be crooks hoping to make money by creating a shortage. As part of a larger market, the EU, this cannot happen.

The Wine Lake & Sugar Mountain were a direct result of the EU wanting to increase the price of Wine & Sugar to protect producers. In no way does it act to reduce price to consumers.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	... Do you remember the sugar shortage? How about the toilet roll shortage (no joke!) ? It was exasperating working there, and very refreshing to work in Germany where everything was well organised. ...

My experience was a bit later than yours. What surprised me time and time again was that people seemed to think that this was a normal state of affairs. It was as if they were standing in a queue, patiently waiting for the market to right itself. As a colonial, flapping his arms at the end of the queue and suggesting that there was something seriously wrong I was often told that I didn't know how to play cricket when a war is on.

[Sbrinz]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The Wine Lake & Sugar Mountain were a direct result of the EU wanting to increase the price of Wine & Sugar to protect producers. In no way does it act to reduce price to consumers.

The lake and mountain came later. in 1974 (?) There was NO SUGAR IN THE SHOPS.

	Quote:	greenmount
	Spot on, and the term describes a lot of others here.

Junker attacking characters that are not even in the picture any longer looks like a pathetic sign of desperation. Can't get any pettier than that. And this guy is the leader of Europe? That is sad.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	The lake and mountain came later. in 1974 (?) There was NO SUGAR IN THE SHOPS.

So exactly 1 Year after Britain joined the EEC, so your claim seems very week! Perhaps if sugar were banned the the obesity problem would be less, it's not as if it 'needs' to be added to food.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	No that was just symptomatic

Symptomatic of what?

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Have things changed in the UK? I expect so, but there will always be crooks hoping to make money by creating a shortage. As part of a larger market, the EU, this cannot happen.

Markets naturally go through tumults and corrections. This will happen with or without the EU. It's a bit naive to think the EU will solve these problems for you. The only problems they are interested in is where the solution calls for more EU. Just ask Greece if the EU solves their problems, or the unemployed in Spain, Italy and Portugal.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	The lake and mountain came later. in 1974 (?) There was NO SUGAR IN THE SHOPS.

There was no sugar in the shops as the US removed tariffs to protect domestic sugar producers and caribbean producers sold to the US instead of UK causing a shortage here.

I tried to find an article on this and saw the below:

https://www.theguardian.com/theguard...shortage-looms

Interestingly, it references Tate & Lyles frustration at the EEC Commission. Tate & Lyle wanted to expand domestic sugar production to reduce reliance on imports but the EEC Commission was of the opinion that the UK did not have sufficient processing capacity to handle more sugar (under EEC rules, sugar production is regulated so the UK needs to get a quota of production)

So it's all getting clearer by the day. Plans a-foot to get rid of minimum wage and maternity payments. But the big one is that the EU plans to crack down on tax evasion, and guess who won't be affected? Surprise (not):

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-tax-loopholes

[dodgyken]

There's a wine lake????
What a waste!!

I selflessly agree to take a few hundred bottles off their hands and consume them for free.

[Phil_MCR]

One day, I would like to speak to someone knowledgeable about these things to understand the machinations and reasons for the rules and structures put in place for this interesting. I'm sure it would be fascinating:

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/sugar/index_en.htm

Here is an expert for you:

https://www.facebook.com/twotcircus/...1732273504317/

[Faltrad]

	Quote:
	So it's all getting clearer by the day. Plans a-foot to get rid of minimum wage and maternity payments. But the big one is that the EU plans to crack down on tax evasion, and guess who won't be affected? Surprise (not): https://www.theguardian.com/business...-tax-loopholes

If the EU is serious (and I don't know if it's the case), the Uk could be listed as tax evasion paradise in no time. This does have consequences for business and finance.
But at the moment, it's all about rhetoric, called in French "effet d'annonce", because nobody knows what and how anything might be applicable in the future, even the reduction of corporate tax is such a rhetoric game as nothing can assure that it will be applied by the next government. It's just a response to the big companies that didn't want the Brexit and have been announcing delocalization or job cuts. In other words:

[yacek]

	Quote:
	Aviva Investors and M&G are the latest major fund groups to suspend trading in commercial property portfolios worth a combined £6bn as investors' rush for the exit gathers momentum. The decisions were made as panic intensified around property valuations and the Bank of England used its July Financial Stability Report to warn of a potentially destabilising impact if funds were "forced to sell illiquid assets to meet redemptions". In addition to halting withdrawals, Britain's biggest commercial property funds have also written down combined portfolio values by approximately £1bn in the last few days. Commentators predict more funds will close as a "liquidity crunch" takes hold across the sector. "This could be the beginning of a vicious cycle in commercial property where the prevention of withdrawals in one fund leads to higher withdrawals and further suspensions in other funds," [...]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing...ssues-warning/

[amogles]

	Quote:	Faltrad
	If the EU is serious (and I don't know if it's the case), the Uk could be listed as tax evasion paradise in no time. This does have consequences for business and finance. But at the moment, it's all about rhetoric, called in French "effet d'annonce", because nobody knows what and how anything might be applicable in the future, even the reduction of corporate tax is such a rhetoric game as nothing can assure that it will be applied by the next government. It's just a response to the big companies that didn't want the Brexit and have been announcing delocalization or job cuts. In other words:

Right now we're still in the aftershock phase and not yet in the constructive go forward phase. Nobody wants to admit any form of error and both sides are pretending they've come out of this totally unscathed and its the other side that is totally screwed, and are spreading the threats (we'll treat you like tax evaders, or we'll stop buying German cars ... all threats that look good on paper but that probably nobody would follow up on).

The next phase will need to move beyond the posturing and call for some real leadership. I think we're lacking real leader figures on both sides right now, and leadership vaccums tend to pose some risk and uncertainty. I'm not totally convinced by any of the present Conservative contenders, but assume May will make it, and guess she will do a good job by and large. On the EU side things are less clear. Can Junker keep his seat? Will Angela stand by him or stab him in the back? Is he a capable crisis leader or just somebody who can keep things running in the good times?

	Quote:	amogles
	Right now we're still in the aftershock phase and not yet in the constructive go forward phase. Nobody wants to admit any form of error and both sides are prenetding they've come out of this totally unscathed and its the other side that is totally screwed. The next phase will need to move beyond the posturing and call for some real leadership. I think we're lacking real lerader figures on both sides right now, and leadership vaccums tend to pose some risk and uncertainty. I'm not totally convinced by any of the present Conservative contenders, but assume May will make it, and guess she will do a good job by and large. On the EU side things are less clear. Can Junker keep his seat? Will Angela stand by him or stab him in the back? Is he a good crisis leader or just somebody who can keep things running in the good times?

She has elections next year so she needs to get her house in order and make sure the EU makes clear positive changes. Junker is now a threat to her.

Funny, it must be now dawning on a few that a friendlier and kinder big brother approach to helping the UK through this time would have benefited them better. Made the EU look stronger, rather than the hard line reaction which of course makes them come across as scared, threatened and weak.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	yacek
	http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing...ssues-warning/

Property is an illiquid asset, they can suspend for unto 6 months, this is very clear to any investors.
Remember property valuations are just an opinion, only a sale shows the market value, if the property has to be liquidated in 7 days or less the price received will be a small fraction of that opinion.