The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Chuff]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	This sums up completely for me https://peterwiddows.wordpress.com/2...3/we-the-0-12/

That about sums it up.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	Big corporations have amazing lobbying power. It's much cheaper to buy a politician than to relocate a plant.

Just as well then that it is the people of France, Denmark and Ireland that will have final say on anything other than EEA membership or WTO rules. The challenge of getting three countries to vote the same way at the same time will be interesting - the Danes and the French will want to avoid referenda at all costs in case in furthers the idea of more exits and the Irish are skilled in the referendum game and will be looking for just a couple little things like some kind of special status for NI to remain within the EU somehow (Oh and most recent - could you include Scotland in that too please? Thanks).

I don't hold out much hope in getting the 24 states plus the people of the other three to agree on very much to be honest.

	Quote:	Faltrad
	My guess: This is internal German politics linked to the next federal elections. Nothing to do with anything European, even if some media will find links in their imagination. It doesn't matter who is president of the parliament for Brexit negotiation as long as it is somebody who can be a puppet. Schulz showed signs that he might not be one. Easy. Furthermore, this job is probably needed as part of a negotiation that is not in the newspaper yet, and the CDU needs to bark at something in the next months, Schulz is SPD but not in the coalition government, an ideal target for CDU.

Too much of a coincidence then that they (Shulz and Juncker) were in favor before Brexit, and now they're not. Merkel's smart enough to know change is needed if Europe is to stay and work together and her actions are in-line with many calls across europe to change e.g. Slovakian's Fico made a strong statement today.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	Too much of a coincidence then that they (Shulz and Juncker) were in favor before Brexit, and now they're not. Merkel's smart enough to know change is needed if Europe is to stay and work together and her actions are in-line with many calls across europe to change e.g. Slovakian's Fico made a strong statement today.

Merkel is smarter than both Schulz and Junker. But she also has enough skeletons in her own closet. She's alienated swathes of her own party and she's not as invincible as she used to be. Who lives by the sword dies by the sword and all that, and if she is the one who initiates the bloodbath it may well come back to haunt her. I rather expect somebody else will make the first move against Junker and / or Schulz and Merkel will conveniently look the other way. Let somebody like Hollande cast the first stone, as his political career is over anyway, or somebody like Schäuble, who nobody likes and who has been around way too long.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	The point? What point? People have long been aware of the nature of this beast. Brexit is probably the best thing that has happened to date to cast light on it. Better now then never to start starving it before it grows real teeth.

Really, I hear "Rule Britannia" playing again!

But as usual no logical argument in your post; simply a random emotion with no serious foundation

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	This sums up completely for me https://peterwiddows.wordpress.com/2...3/we-the-0-12/

This is how civil wars start; it needs a compromise!!
I doubt that almost half the country who were outvoted will sit quietly in a corner and say "Oh dear, we lost"!

They will expect some sort of recognition

	Quote:	Swisstree
	Too much of a coincidence then that they (Shulz and Juncker) were in favor before Brexit, and now they're not. Merkel's smart enough to know change is needed if Europe is to stay and work together and her actions are in-line with many calls across europe to change e.g. Slovakian's Fico made a strong statement today.

Merkel is just trying to appease public sentiments with empty gestures. Outside of these press leaks, nobody really believes she will make good on any of these any time soon.

Schulz and Juncker can be sacrificed like goats, which would be fun to see. But these two only fulfilled what their offices allowed them to, and they played it out in the open, which good to see. It really wouldn't suffice to only replace these two, as it is the offices, and less the personalities, that is the problem with the EU.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Really, I hear "Rule Britannia" playing again!

Better than playing "Eurocrap über Alles"

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	This is how civil wars start; it needs a compromise!! I doubt that almost half the country who were outvoted will sit quietly in a corner and say "Oh dear, we lost"! They will expect some sort of recognition

It will take better leaders. Leaders who say, "sh*t, we lost, but lets try and make the best of it and lets try to save all the stuff we like about the EU" rather than going into direct denial and refusing to accept defeat. A country can survive heavy and fundamental differences if it comes together again afterwards. But what sows the seeds of civil war is people refusing to accept that they lost and refusing to move on. Cue Weimar.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	amogles
	The EU hasn't exactly played nice with the Uk, er, ever. But they have mostly played civil and it is in their mutual interest to continue to do so.

UK rebate on EU contributions anybody?

[Chuff]

	Quote:	marton
	This is how civil wars start; it needs a compromise!! I doubt that almost half the country who were outvoted will sit quietly in a corner and say "Oh dear, we lost"! They will expect some sort of recognition

Civil war in the UK... marton your flair for the ludicrously dramatic never ceases to amaze me. You should have been a campaigner during the Referendum.

For those clinging to the idea that devaluation of the £ will boost UK exports, this guy would tend to disagree

http://www.georgemagnus.com/ftse-isn...-world-but-is/

	Quote:
	You should note that the Pound has been falling since it reached $1.71 in July 2014, and yet the UK’s trade and external payments position has gotten steadily worse. In the first quarter of 2016, the UK’s trade deficit was the biggest recorded since 2008. So don’t let anybody tell you that a cheaper currency, plain and simple, is a good thing for the economy. It depends.

[marton]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Civil war in the UK... marton your flair for the ludicrously dramatic never ceases to amaze me. .

I do my humble best

But seriously, I do not expect half the country to sit in a corner and watch themselves being dragged into a financial black hole they did not vote for.

The mayor of London is very quiet considering his constituents have clearly shown they were for Remain.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	UK rebate on EU contributions anybody?

hahahhahaha

[Chuff]

	Quote:	marton
	I do my humble best But seriously, I do not expect half the country to sit in a corner and watch themselves being dragged into a financial black hole they did not vote for. The mayor of London is very quiet considering his constituents have clearly shown they were for Remain.

The problem is, regardless of the reasons and demographics behind the outcome, it was about as democratic as the UK gets. Thus to block this result, though it isn't "legally binding", is to block the will of the people and therefore political suicide. It would lead to worse civil unrest than the current state of things, of that there can be little doubt.

If the Remain side had won and the Leave side wanted to do the dame thing, we would be instantly villifying them as unwashed and undemocratic troglodytes. But because the Remain camp consider themselves as infinitely more highly educated, more politically enlightened, and more culturally enriched etc etc... then toys are being wilfully thrown out of the pram. It is hypocrasy at its finest, because if the shoe was on the other foot we all know, you and Odile included, that you would brook no chance of overturning the result.

It is something that people are going to have to deal with and I am reasonable sure that the outcome is going to lead to a more sensible and democratic EU as opposed to its autocratic, undemocratic current state. We are already seeing the effects, with Sepp Juncker being asked to leave very quickly following their ridiculous reactions to the referendum. Herr Schulz will soon be out too. Germany and France both see what a pickle they have got themselves into, that they now risk losing everything they worked so hard to build. Also how avoidable it was.

People just need to get the **** over it and start thinking what we can do as a country in the long-term once the initial stability has subsided, instead of dwelling in this sea of incessant self-pity while wailing about the evils of, umm, democracy.

[Phil_MCR]

CETA machinations: http://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy...ails-analysis/

leaving aside whether this agreement is good or bad, the tactic of provisional implementation ahead of member state ratification is an interesting one.

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	CETA machinations: http://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy...ails-analysis/ leaving aside whether this agreement is good or bad, the tactic of provisional implementation ahead of member state ratification is an interesting one.

This suggests the UK should just start talking to each country directly and bypass the EU. What's the point of going through the EU?

There are rumblings of discontent in Ireland now too, farming/agriculture depend so much on trade with the UK and the north, and have done for many, many years.

Kenny is having a political headache at home, as a result. Criticism and blame are flying and there's a real sense that Ireland will not put up with tight restrictions on trade with its close friend: UK.

That particularly headache will spread to the EU, and even if Kenny doesn't remain in power, I would think that Ireland will continue to be strongly vocal against harsh trade treatment of the UK by the EU.

Oh that lovely paradox: the cracks are widening, while the ties that bind..

... and those who voted leave from the comfort of their Swiss mountains find it oh so ... what?

Satisfied?

Of course your high Swiss salary will be worth more when you go back home to boast to your family and friends- and buy your clothes and Branston to bring home. Ah how cosy and sweet it will feel- and smug too.

[marton]

	Quote:
	For those clinging to the idea that devaluation of the £ will boost UK exports, this guy would tend to disagree http://www.georgemagnus.com/ftse-isn...-world-but-is/

Indeed, plus when exported articles contain imported raw materials then the impact of devaluation on export prices is reduced.