The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Sbrinz]

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	Theresa May is an ex-banker, married to a banker, who's party is bankrolled by bankers. Leadsom was even worse. So there'll be no change in Tory policies.

Theresa May worked at the bank of England.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theresa_May

Andrea Leadsom was a commercial banker, and seems not to have learnt to keep her big mouth shut. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Leadsom

[lewton]

	Quote:	st2lemans
	(personally, Palin would be a better choice for a female POTUS)

For me personally as well, Palin would have been a better POTUS.
Would have made the country the best laughing stock.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	Truth be told, the bigger risk and danger to the UK and its economy is more the current leader of the Labor party than Brexit.

I don't think it's that dire. He's pretty much irrelevant. He doesn't even have much control over his own party, let alone broader trends in politics. He get so much attention not because people are listening, but for the comic relief effect.

[PaddyG]

	Quote:	amogles
	I don't think it's that dire. He's pretty much irrelevant. He doesn't even have much control over his own party, let alone broader trends in politics. He get so much attention not because people are listening, but for the comic relief effect.

I can't put my finger on it, but I find Corbyn to be somewhat sinister and entirely untrustworthy.

[Phos]

	Quote:	amogles
	I don't think it's that dire. He's pretty much irrelevant. He doesn't even have much control over his own party, let alone broader trends in politics. He get so much attention not because people are listening, but for the comic relief effect.

Notice that he's ingrained in there and nobody knows how to get him out. I think he values his own ideas of his own principles over everybody else's sense of democracy, which leads me to believe he would not mind taking control of the country without a proper mandate. If May and the Conservative were to screw up, calls an election, and he gets in there, consequences would be far greater than Brexit.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	Notice that he's ingrained in there and nobody knows how to get him out.

When push comes to shove they can be rid of him in a jiffy.

One of the old age problems of the Labour Party is that they aren't very good at reigning in their own left fringe, which will occasionally go compeltely loony. This is effectively what kept Labour unelectable throughout the Thatcher years -even when Maggie made huge mistakes that Labour could so easily have cashed in on had they not insisted on alienating the middle ground. And Labour will even today ocassionally delude themselves into thinking that there is some sense in following the looniness. But those phases don't normally last very long. I think the sleepwalk will be over sooner rather than later.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Andrea Leadsom was a commercial banker, and seems not to have learnt to keep her big mouth shut. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Leadsom

except her CV was total BS as she was never a banker, she just worked at a bank, in more of a HR role.

[Sbrinz]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The IMF has warned Italy of a two decade long recession. This is same IMF that said the UK should remain in the EU. Can they not see that Italy's problems are caused ENTIRELY by them being in the Eurozone. The country is going to be bankrupt and won't be able to do anything about it because of some idiotic ideology. When will they learn that you cannot manage all those different economies through a single monetary policy? The ECB cannot do anything to assist Italy without upsetting matters in other countries. Italy are helpless. The Greek problem hasn't gone away either. Britain's exit should be the catalyst for Europeans to wake up and realise how much they're getting screwed.

So the EU made the Italian banks take on the bad debts, over 20 years?

It would seem to me more likely that the Italian banks lent money to their mates in shady businesses.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36770311

[Sbrinz]

	Quote:	PaddyG
	I can't put my finger on it, but I find Corbyn to be somewhat sinister and entirely untrustworthy.

Not the impression he gives me, I see him as a good headmaster, but never a PM.

And another U-Turn from a pro-Remain company. Anyone with any sense sees a confident Brexit Britain with a bright future over a basket case cancerous EU.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7132236.html

"Speaking after the release of the report, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said, "Growth estimates are down after the Brexit," he told Italian radio station RTL. "Europe's economy will slow briefly, but in the mid-term the English are the ones who will feel the damage the most."

Mr Renzi said that Italy would try to lure financial institutions who decide to leave London in the wake of Britain's departure from the EU.


Let's see how that works out. Still got his head in the sand.

[Swisstree]

Why, across Europe, does that seem to be the default comment:

*Yes, we will have difficulties and damage, but that's okay because for the UK, it's much much worse*

An article I read last night by Philip Geddes, who also makes reference to companies staying put in the UK:

"I got my present earlier than expected. Britain voted to leave the EU. I still have to convince my wife, who voted to stay in, that this was a good idea… but as my family was split equally on both sides, we didn’t alter anything"

Philip Geddes spent ten years as a European correspondent for the Financial Times’ TV News Service, and 15 years as an adviser to various parts of the European Commission.

[Capo]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	"Speaking after the release of the report, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said, "Growth estimates are down after the Brexit," he told Italian radio station RTL. "Europe's economy will slow briefly, but in the mid-term the English are the ones who will feel the damage the most." Mr Renzi said that Italy would try to lure financial institutions who decide to leave London in the wake of Britain's departure from the EU. Let's see how that works out. Still got his head in the sand.

HAHAHA, this guy is a joker!

I have to admit, I think Renzi is way better than most of the past prime ministers but he is still an ITALIAN POLITICIAN.

There is no way that, in the very remote chance of financial institutions leaving London, that they would choose Italy. NO CHANCE! Talented people in general who work in London would hate paying high taxes such as those of Italy. And then there is the business environment, which is terrible in Italy.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	"Speaking after the release of the report, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said, "Growth estimates are down after the Brexit," he told Italian radio station RTL. "Europe's economy will slow briefly, but in the mid-term the English are the ones who will feel the damage the most." Mr Renzi said that Italy would try to lure financial institutions who decide to leave London in the wake of Britain's departure from the EU. Let's see how that works out. Still got his head in the sand.

doesn't italy have some of the least business friendly employment laws in the word iirc once you have a full time 'proper' job (not a fixed term contract etc) then its almost impossible to fire you

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	And another U-Turn from a pro-Remain company. Anyone with any sense sees a confident Brexit Britain with a bright future over a basket case cancerous EU. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7132236.html

Siemens is due to deliver 1,140 commuter rail carriages in London in the coming years for £210Million; of course they will not leave

[lewton]

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ime=1468321271

Cameron crept into government in 2010 promising to eradicate the deficit in a single parliamentary term. His government didn’t even come close. His government was “paying down Britain’s debts”, he declared in 2013: it actually added more debt than every Labour government put together. Upon assuming office, he committed “to ensuring our whole country shares in rising prosperity”: his government presided over the longest fall in wages and the most protracted economic stagnation for generations. After the last general election, his chancellor introduced three fiscal rules: a welfare cap, a national debt falling as a proportion of GDP, and a budget surplus by 2020. The first two were broken by March; the budget surplus was ignominiously abandoned by George Osborne at the beginning of July.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	And another U-Turn from a pro-Remain company. Anyone with any sense sees a confident Brexit Britain with a bright future over a basket case cancerous EU. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7132236.html

It took Switzerland seven years for the Bilaterale 1. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the UK.

Until then Brexit means uncertainty, non-predictability, and that is never good for business, which by extension means it's also not good for employment. While it may be unlikely for existing projects to be cancelled, certainly not on a whim, future UK investment decisions got a big negative factor added to them.

[Phos]

A simple plan of action and strategy statement from Theresa May should immediately reduce uncertainty. They need to base this on the quality of plan and not the urgency of time. She needs to outline a sequence of events that demonstrate smooth and seamless transitions from present mode to future mode.

It will probably be a multiple step implementation strategy.

*-Strategize Exit with individual entities when and where possible
-Rejoin EFTA
-Invoke Article 50
-Open Bi-Lateral negotiations

Invoking Article 50 without a clear and coherent strategy could be unnecessarily damaging for the UK and the EU.

The more forward momentum the UK generates, the better its negotiation position.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	It took Switzerland seven years for the Bilaterale 1. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the UK. Until then Brexit means uncertainty, non-predictability, and that is never good for business, which by extension means it's also not good for employment. While it may be unlikely for existing projects to be cancelled, certainly not on a whim, future UK investment decisions got a big negative factor added to them.

I guess business can reduce the uncertainty by building capability in the UK then they can serve the UK market from the UK.

[Mikers]

Slightly off topic but more of Jeremy corbyns Kinder Gentler Kind Of Politics today when Angela eagle had her office windows smashed in for daring to launch a leadership challenge against him.