The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	SoftBank purchase of ARM is nevertheless an investment in the UK, which was supposed to be plunged into an isolated, inward looking xenophobic country. This is a healthy sign of debunking Brexit gloom and doom. With negative rates, I'm sure there are more possible purchases like this. The Asians are not deterred by Brexit. Not to say that the UK should sell all its assets to foreigners. I'm sure Theresa May's government is keeping an eye on these.

There are different views around "Hermann Hauser, Arm’s founder, described SoftBank’s proposed takeover of the company as one of the “sad and unintended consequences” of Brexit.

“The future of Arm could have been determined by the UK management team. Now it will be determined in Japan,” he told the FT.

Source

Maybe "isolated, inward looking country" is a reasonable description

	Quote:	Kosti
	If you knew something about ARMs business, then you would also know that this company is not dependent on common market access, at all. They have zero manufacturing in the UK, and their products are chip designs, the actual manufacturing being done mostly in Asia. They have centers all over the world, including a whole bunch of EU countries, and can hire talent as required. Do you have any examples of companies that depend on single market access, and have European contracts to fulfill, announcing investment?

I do know that ARM is an IP driven business that makes its money from licensing and not from manufacturing. Nevertheless, their HQ is in Cambridge, and their earnings are booked in the UK.

What is interesting with the SoftBank purchase is that it will widen ARM's availability to hardware manufactures. ARM is at the top of the supply line for the upcoming generations of pervasive computing. Its profitability has yet to peak, hence SoftBank paid way over ARM's revenue and earnings. SoftBank's position in Asia should ensure that ARM will stay quite relevant from here on.

[marton]

Boris Johnson was embarrassingly forced onto the back foot during his first London press conference as foreign secretary on Tuesday as he was repeatedly pressed to explain his past “outright lies” and insults about world leaders, including describing the president of the United States as part Kenyan and hypocritical.

Source

Great idea of May to appoint people on the basis of "you broke it, you fix it"

Awww, Boris is so charming. He'll do great. Great role model for eggshell and snowflake people.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Softbank are paying in UK pounds which they are buying with Japanese yen

The price is still roughly 40% higher than a few weeks ago in yen, you claimed the currency fall negated any premium they paid which is totally false, really surprised you made the post TBH.
You must also realise the earnings in yen are hardly influenced by the £ as the £ has little relevance to their earnings of ARM. Rather like Nestle which only makes 2% of it's profits in CHF......... Nestle is just traded in CHF so foreign investors can ignore the CHF in their investment decisions.
London stock exchange is second only to New York, no requirement to have any trading connection with the UK.

[bigblue2]

If softbank had setup its own R&D and manufacturing plant in the uk then it would be investing in the uk, as it stands its buying an international asset that just happens to have a plaque on a wall in the uk, which can (and probably will) be moved elsewhere.

its quite staggering how naive people are being here about how international companies actually work.

Just take krafts cadbury's takeover as an example, all the promises made before hand, did they stick to them? did they hell! factories closed, quality down, asset stripped and split off.

[lewton]

	Quote:	Phos
	SoftBank's position in Asia should ensure that ARM will stay quite relevant from here on.

Care to explain this part?

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	There are different views around "Hermann Hauser, Arm’s founder, described SoftBank’s proposed takeover of the company as one of the “sad and unintended consequences” of Brexit. “The future of Arm could have been determined by the UK management team. Now it will be determined in Japan,” he told the FT. Source Maybe "isolated, inward looking country" is a reasonable description

As I said not everybody has the same view about the ARM purchase
"SoftBank Group Corp.’s shares plunged yesterday, wiping out $7 billion off its market capitalization as investors questioned the $32 billion price tag on the company’s purchase of U.K.-based chip designer ARM Holdings PLC."

Source

ARM does not manufacturer. They develop and license chip designs. They can send these designs in graphic files by email to licensees, and they get manufactured in Asia.

A company like ARM has a very high ratio of revenue per employee because of this. This is the kind of company you want in the UK to improve its standard of living. Manufacturing companies have very low ratios of revenue per employee.

The UK is capable of higher value output than mere factory output. I don't think the UK can thrive on factory output alone. It will need to increase and leverage its intellectual output to thrive.

[bigblue2]

still don't get what point you are tying to make phos??

as I see it softbank are investing nothing in the uk, they are buying a plc so the shareholders can be anywhere in the world, they only have 4k staff spread all over the world and they can easily close and move the uk staff (or just fire them all)

they are investing in chip designs and IP that may or may not take over the world in the next few years, nothing more, nothing less

	Quote:	bigblue2
	still don't get what point you are tying to make phos??

Very simple point that has digressed: The UK will NOT be isolated by Brexit.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Phos
	Very simple point that has digressed: The UK will NOT be isolated by Brexit.

but softbank is not a good example of this

	Quote:	bigblue2
	but softbank is not a good example of this

The point is that the UK's future is global, the EU is stagnant, and the nascent ecosystem gravitates towards Asia.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phos
	I do know that ARM is an IP driven business that makes its money from licensing and not from manufacturing. Nevertheless, their HQ is in Cambridge, and their earnings are booked in the UK. What is interesting with the SoftBank purchase is that it will widen ARM's availability to hardware manufactures. ARM is at the top of the supply line for the upcoming generations of pervasive computing. Its profitability has yet to peak, hence SoftBank paid way over ARM's revenue and earnings. SoftBank's position in Asia should ensure that ARM will stay quite relevant from here on.

I don't know much about SoftBank, but just be virtue of being an Asian company doesn't automatically imply that they are able to open new opportunities in the Asian market. If they had been taken over by an Asian chip maker with well established customer rapports and sales channels, this would be different.

[amogles]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	still don't get what point you are tying to make phos?? as I see it softbank are investing nothing in the uk, they are buying a plc so the shareholders can be anywhere in the world, they only have 4k staff spread all over the world and they can easily close and move the uk staff (or just fire them all) they are investing in chip designs and IP that may or may not take over the world in the next few years, nothing more, nothing less

Quite often in technology, IP alone doesn't mean much as it is mostly so short lived anyway, and the machinery of law is often so slow that by the time you have an enforcable ruling, the situation down on the ground will have changed to the point that the ruling is irrelevant.

What is far more important for this type of technology companies is the people they have who understand the products and process. This knowledge is not easy to transfer or replicate, and even if you try, the time lost in doing so can break your market leadership.

It is thus unlikely the new owners will lay off significant numbers of knowledge-relavant staff or attempt to relocate them.

	Quote:	amogles
	I don't know much about SoftBank, but just be virtue of being an Asian company doesn't automatically imply that they are able to open new opportunities in the Asian market. If they had been taken over by an Asian chip maker with well established customer rapports and sales channels, this would be different.

Discussion of this industry may warrant a different thread altogether. Being owned by a chip maker would probably castle ARM products and limit its application. SoftBank appears to be going for an end-to-end continuity from chip design, devices, infrastructure, to applications. Its a holding company that tend to pick up companies like playing cards. Its yet to be seen how they will play out ARM, but they seem to see it as an ace in the hole that will be staying in the game.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	ARM does not manufacturer. They develop and license chip designs. They can send these designs in graphic files by email to licensees, and they get manufactured in Asia. A company like ARM has a very high ratio of revenue per employee because of this. This is the kind of company you want in the UK to improve its standard of living. Manufacturing companies have very low ratios of revenue per employee. The UK is capable of higher value output than mere factory output. I don't think the UK can thrive on factory output alone. It will need to increase and leverage its intellectual output to thrive.

ARM has only around one third of their employees in UK, their development centres are worldwide; USA, China, India, Ireland.......

Likely in future profits will be repatriated to Japan or to the Irish company to benefit from the Irish tax situation on Intellectual property rights.

[marton]

At the opening of the first legal challenge to the process of Brexit on Tuesday, government lawyers confirmed that May will not push the button on article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which initiates the UK’s departure, before the end of this year.

Source

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	At the opening of the first legal challenge to the process of Brexit on Tuesday, government lawyers confirmed that May will not push the button on article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which initiates the UK’s departure, before the end of this year. Source

It's interesting that she's telling this to the Germans rather than to some EU representative.

I wonder how much underhand dealing goes on at these meetings?

Not long ago the Germans were still saying, article 50 must be invoked sooner rather than later. Now it seems they are accepting it won't be this year. I guess some serious behind the scenes dealing has already been going on.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	amogles
	It's interesting that she's telling this to the Germans rather than to some EU representative. I wonder how much underhand dealing goes on at these meetings? Not long ago the Germans were still saying, article 50 must be invoked sooner rather than later. Now it seems they are accepting it won't be this year. I guess some serious behind the scenes dealing has already been going on.

Lets be clear, she can't do a thing until the UK government get round to invoking article 50. Hot air costs nothing, however makes you look stupid if talking BS