The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	The same chart shows the EU is the biggest economy in the world; you want to walk away from this? 44% of UK exports go to the EU. The US is the main overseas investment market and the main single country export market for UK businesses. The UK has its own bilateral trade relations with the US. It also works through the European Union (EU) TransAtlantic Economic Council (TEC).

If we leave, it wouldn't be the biggest economy in the world anymore!

The UK is 16% of the EU.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Don Molina
	Not but the 44% of your exports will be much more expensive at their market and will not be the same 44% again. Of course trade will not halt to a stop, that is a childish argument. But please argue that it will somehow better than it is now.

How will it be more expensive? I would put money on the UK having tariff-free trading with the EU post-brexit on 90% by value of exports if not 100%.

Not to mention any tariffs charged would be less than the tariffs we would collect so simply directing these back to exporters would make our exports cheaper!

Let's not forget the EU tariffs are low and decreasing anyway:



Source: http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/euro...on/tariff-rate

Although in the impossible case that all trade between EU and UK stopped, we would at least fix our trade deficit:



Anyway, in the near term Europe is an under-performing market so looking at other opportunities would be a good thing. IMO, it would be better for the UK to strike it's own course rather than sink with the EU.

The same people that told us that not joining the Euro would mean the end of the UK are the same people telling us that leaving the EU will be the end of the UK. They were wrong then, they are wrong now.

[Chuff]

	Quote:	Don Molina
	Not but the 44% of your exports will be much more expensive at their market and will not be the same 44% again. Of course trade will not halt to a stop, that is a childish argument. But please argue that it will somehow better than it is now.

See Phil's posts, he is knowledgeable with economics and can answer more eloquently than I.

You are also focusing purely on trade, which is not the reason why we want to leave the EU. There are many recent talks on Youtube from UK MP's and well-known economists/businessmen about how we can potentially benefit from leaving the EU in terms of trade.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	Why would they not continue as before, possibly with little or no tariffs, worse case with WTO MFN tariffs?

But this is exactly the out argument: vote out, don't worry everything will be the same or only a very little change. For the past 40 years the UK has argued for opt outs because their industry could not compete in a market with proximity and full access. And now they are suddenly going to be able to compete and even develop new markets further a field that are more price sensitive? It can be done, but I expect it will be at the cost of the employees wages. Will the UK standard of living suffer?

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	But this is exactly the out argument: vote out, don't worry everything will be the same or only a very little change. For the past 40 years the UK has argued for opt outs because their industry could not compete in a market with proximity and full access. And now they are suddenly going to be able to compete and even develop new markets further a field that are more price sensitive? It can be done, but I expect it will be at the cost of the employees wages. Will the UK standard of living suffer?

Which market opt-outs are you referring to?

[Odile]

Forget about BREXI for a moment- let's all of Europe unite for a massive referendum to ask for the Constitution to be changed

https://www.facebook.com/IamFreddieB...3443510543861/

so this guy can run for office again (and again) - would make a lot more difference in the long run.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	But this is exactly the out argument: vote out, don't worry everything will be the same or only a very little change. For the past 40 years the UK has argued for opt outs because their industry could not compete in a market with proximity and full access. And now they are suddenly going to be able to compete and even develop new markets further a field that are more price sensitive? It can be done, but I expect it will be at the cost of the employees wages. Will the UK standard of living suffer?

Can the UK standard of living keep on going as it is in any situation?

Hardly anything is manufactured in the Uk any more. We have a huge trade deficit. We have a growing education and skills deficit. The only thing that seems to be making money these days is the property market, but with fewer and fewer young people able to get onto the property ladder, the benefits of that are not being equally spread any more either.

I'm not claiming to know what the silver bullet is, But keep on doing what we've been doing over the last 40 years cannot be the answer somehow.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

Interesting article/survey. Seems people in a few more EU countries would like to have a referendum on whether their countries should stay in the EU as well.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...endum-35775216

[Sbrinz]

This very long article from the BBC clarifies some of the outrageous statements (aka lies) made in recent weeks,

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-poli...commentary-top

I think it's a very good read, whether you want "In" or "Out"

[Belgianmum]

http://metro.co.uk/2015/11/06/so-man...#ixzz42mw4N0Dx

Ok so it's from the UK equivalent of 20 minutes but interesting nevertheless.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	Belgianmum
	http://metro.co.uk/2015/11/06/so-man...#ixzz42mw4N0Dx Ok so it's from the UK equivalent of 20 minutes but interesting nevertheless.

Um, so where's the 7.6 million Americans worldwide that FATCA was designed to entrap? Have most of them returned home?

Brexit odds have shortened in the wake of the Brussels terror attacks. Now running at 7/4. To put that into perspective, odds of a Tory majority at the last election were far far longer.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...-idUKKCN0WO20B

[Medea Fleecestealer]

Government has responded to the petition for all British citizens living abroad to be able to vote in the referendum. Short answer is we'll be scrapping the 15 year restriction, but it's unlikely to happen in time for the referendum.

[Britething]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Brexit odds have shortened in the wake of the Brussels terror attacks. Now running at 7/4. To put that into perspective, odds of a Tory majority at the last election were far far longer. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...-idUKKCN0WO20B

I was wondering how the attacks in Brussels would impact the referendum. Especially the issue of border control/Shengen.

I feel this will continue to escalate as an issue for voters.

[marton]

	Quote:	Britething
	I was wondering how the attacks in Brussels would impact the referendum. Especially the issue of border control/Shengen. I feel this will continue to escalate as an issue for voters.

UK is not in Schengen, the borders are strictly controlled today.

[Belgianmum]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Government has responded to the petition for all British citizens living abroad to be able to vote in the referendum. Short answer is we'll be scrapping the 15 year restriction, but it's unlikely to happen in time for the referendum.

I was just about to post this, got an email about it this morning.

[Britething]

Article by a guy called Karagiannis from King's College, London.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...093901813.html

Border controls/Schengen management on everyone's minds.

[marton]

	Quote:	Britething
	Article by a guy called Karagiannis from King's College, London. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...093901813.html Border controls/S"C"hengen management on everyone's minds.

Fixed that for you.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	UK is not in Schengen, the borders are strictly controlled today.

This is the British side of the border at Killeen (Speed limit sign), I don't see any controls there....

[Urs Max]

Neither the UK nor Ireland are part of Schengen area.

But even if one were it wouldn't mean one *has to* have border controls; in such a case it would be each countrys' own decision.