The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[dawiz]

	Quote:	amogles
	Speak for yourself. When I first came to CH none of that existed. I managed to get a job anyhow.

Let me guess: you came during a time when mass immigration was still unheard of. The facts now are simple: we have a treaty with the EU and a pool of workers of roughly 440 million after the Brexit. At the same time, immigration is too high - so as Switzerland won't be able to curb immigration from the EU, the only available option is to limit immigration from non-EU states. And that will happen.

Pre-bilaterals it didn't matter much where people were coming from, now it does.

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	And Nigel Farage is promising more disruption to continental European, Irish and British politics.

Cool. I can just see the headline for France now, "If you Brexit, you Fexit!".

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	dawiz
	Pre-bilaterals it didn't matter much where people were coming from, now it does.

It certainly did for a C permit, you talk loudly but don't have the historical knowledge necessary to build a balanced opinion.

[dawiz]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	It certainly did for a C permit, you talk loudly but don't have the historical knowledge necessary to build a balanced opinion.

Yeah I completely lack that, having been born here and having lived here for 40 years. Go insult someone else today, alright?

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	dawiz
	Switzerland very likely won't be able to get out of the whole freedom of movement thing

Of course they can.

They just need to accept the loss of the bilaterals.

Tom

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	dawiz
	If anything, it's a major problem for Switzerland. The EU won't be in the mood for compromises now.

And Switzerland shouldn't compromise, either.

Screw the bilaterals.

Tom

[dodgyken]

	Quote:	st2lemans
	And Switzerland shouldn't compromise, either. Screw the bilaterals. Tom

They're called bisexuals*. Get the terminology right







(Or lesbians you're converting to the cock-side )

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	dawiz
	Yeah I completely lack that, having been born here and having lived here for 40 years. Go insult someone else today, alright?

Meaning you've never needed to care about a residence permit.
Doesn't sound like much of a qualification.

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	dawiz
	having been born here and having lived here for 40 years.

So have you become Swiss, or are you still one of them furriners?

Tom

[amogles]

	Quote:	dodgyken
	They're called bisexuals*. Get the terminology right (Or lesbians you're converting to the cock-side )

This post is useless without pictures.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The IMF got it wrong, the UK will now grow faster than France or Germany! http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/691...Brexit-doom-EU

Actually:
Since about 2012 the UK has clearly been growing faster than France and Germany. Next year UK is predicted to grow roughly at the same pace (1.3% for UK, 1.2% Germany) after the reduction (by 0.9% for the UK, 0.4% for Germany) due to Brexit.

	Quote:	dawiz
	If anything, it's a major problem for Switzerland. The EU won't be in the mood for compromises now.

FMOP is under increasing pressure. It is close to the root of all of the EU's problems at the moment. The original intent was to allow free movement of workers. But it was extended to anyone and everyone who wants to move from here or there. I think the term worker can be tightly defined for better control.

I wouldn't take current practices to be set in stone. The EU's moodiness actually doesn't mean anything. Their unwillingness to budge is what will cause more cracks in the EU.

I think we're in for a redefinition of what FMOP is, and how it is practiced. Its only because Germany's population decline is that still being shoved down everybody's throat. They really should be finding a model that is acceptable to all other participants other than Germany.

[rainer_d]

Germany has quite a brain-drain of people to other countries, too.
Switzerland for IT, the Nordic countries for medical staff...

Some of those are coming back after a while, some aren't. Or only if they cannot get a job anymore...

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soz...a-1022743.html

[tormund]

	Quote:	dawiz
	Let me guess: you came during a time when mass immigration was still unheard of. The facts now are simple: we have a treaty with the EU and a pool of workers of roughly 440 million after the Brexit. At the same time, immigration is too high - so as Switzerland won't be able to curb immigration from the EU, the only available option is to limit immigration from non-EU states. And that will happen. Pre-bilaterals it didn't matter much where people were coming from, now it does.

I arrived last year as a non-EU. It took 16 days from visiting the Swiss embassy to receive my VISA. If the Swiss decide that I should leave, I will, but they know as well as you do, people like me who don't have the right to live in Switzerland aren't the source of the immigration problem. The issue with the EU is the loss of sovereignty that's been forced upon its members, and it's why the EU is getting hammered from so many public votes. You seem to like lawyerly arguments. My reading is that people in the West are moving back towards calling a spade a spade. The Eastern European nations seem to be quite euro-skeptic lately, so at some point the european federalists may run out of votes. If countries like Switzerland and Britain act and don't bother much with Brussels, I'm not confident Brussels will ever be able to extract any measure of vengeance. The amount of bureaucractic inertia in the EU is somewhat amazing even by european standards.

[rainer_d]

	Quote:	tormund
	The Eastern European nations seem to be quite euro-skeptic lately,

That's only because of the refugees.

Well, OK, they realized that giving up sovereignty isn't a problem - until the rest of the club decides something that goes fundamentally against their values.
In that way, the refugee-crisis was a good catalyst.
They are also pissed about all the Southern-European nations essentially bumbling along with their financial and economic problems, "fixing" the money-market (negative interests) and potentially destroying everybody's future while they had to go through absolutely brutal efficiency and austerity-programs in the 90s and early 2000s - most of them would probably have bailed-out Greece once, at most and told them to go and die somewhere else after that.
So, this has come up before: there cannot really be a monetary, political and economic union without also a social and fiscal union.
I.E. Germany, Finland, the Netherlands and a few other countries would have to transfer billions into the poor Southern states, which no parliament would approve because it would be akin to political suicide.
Italy can't really govern or develop their much anytime south of Rome. It's really doubtful someone from Brussels could do it better...

For the foreseeable future, I believe that nobody in Europa has the will-power, the political (and electoral) mandate, the negotiation-skills and last but not least the charisma to tackle this very difficult endeavor. As such, politicians will continue to pretend that it's actually working as-is right now, which of of it isn't.

[marton]

From Hollande (French premier) today;
"“None can be separated from the other. There cannot be freedom of movement of goods, free movement of capital, free movement of services if there isn’t a free movement of people … It will be a choice facing the UK – remain in the single market and then assume the free movement that goes with it or to have another status.”"

"Hollande became the first EU leader to guarantee that British people living in France would be allowed to stay in his country once the UK’s exit negotiations conclude.

“There is no doubt that the French people who reside in the UK will be able to continue to work there and that the British people in France will be able to continue to work there and spend as much time as they wish,” he said."

Source

[marton]

	Quote:	dawiz
	Let me guess: you came during a time when mass immigration was still unheard of. The facts now are simple: we have a treaty with the EU and a pool of workers of roughly 440 million after the Brexit. At the same time, immigration is too high - so as Switzerland won't be able to curb immigration from the EU, the only available option is to limit immigration from non-EU states. And that will happen. Pre-bilaterals it didn't matter much where people were coming from, now it does.

"Pre-bilaterals it didn't matter much where people were coming from, now it does."

Not true, Switzerland had this "three ring" concept; depending on which ring your home country was in determined how easy or difficult it was to get a work permit!

[Wollishofener]

	Quote:	amogles
	Speak for yourself. When I first came to CH none of that existed. I managed to get a job anyhow.

the oldest Bilterals were those with the German Empire of Emperor Wilhelm II signed in 1912 which included Basel Bad, Bhf + Bhf Schaffhausen etc which are still in force

[Wollishofener]

	Quote:	st2lemans
	Of course they can. They just need to accept the loss of the bilaterals. Tom

the BILATERALS need to be rescued and WILL BE rescued

[Wollishofener]

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manuel_Valls


Mr Hollande is PRESIDENT DE LA REPUBLIQUE. Interestng is that the mum of Prime Minister Vals was a Born Miss GALFETTI of TICINO origin