The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

Ford has warned it is considering closing factories and raising prices in the UK and Europe in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.

Announcing disappointing results on Thursday, the motor company forecast that the referendum decision could cost the company $1bn over the next two years.

Ford has two remaining manufacturing plants in the UK, at Dagenham and Bridgend. Asked if the group would shut its remaining UK manufacturing operations after Brexit, Shanks (Ford CFO) said: “Everything is going to be on the table across Europe”.

Source

	Quote:	marton
	Ford has warned it is considering closing factories and raising prices in the UK and Europe in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. Announcing disappointing results on Thursday, the motor company forecast that the referendum decision could cost the company $1bn over the next two years. Ford has two remaining manufacturing plants in the UK, at Dagenham and Bridgend. Asked if the group would shut its remaining UK manufacturing operations after Brexit, Shanks (Ford CFO) said: “Everything is going to be on the table across Europe”. Source

Ford don't manufacture any cars in Britain, yet by far Britain is their biggest market in Europe, and their third biggest overall. They'd do well not to do anything that could affect that.

[Don Molina]

Well they do make more than 2mil engines in the UK, and some transmissions, but one of the factories is getting smaller with Volvo and JLR leaving so it's a pretty good opportunity to start scaling down operations there and moving them somewhere else.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Ford has warned it is considering closing factories and raising prices in the UK and Europe in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. Announcing disappointing results on Thursday, the motor company forecast that the referendum decision could cost the company $1bn over the next two years. Ford has two remaining manufacturing plants in the UK, at Dagenham and Bridgend. Asked if the group would shut its remaining UK manufacturing operations after Brexit, Shanks (Ford CFO) said: “Everything is going to be on the table across Europe”. Source

Interestingly Ford never cut prices in Britain as the £ soared over the previous 3 years, so not really a good argument to use the exchange rate as a reason to increase prices today.

[marton]

The German Greens have called on Angela Merkel’s government to offer fast-track citizenship to Britons living in Germany in an effort to ensure they can remain once Britain leaves the EU.

Source

The SP in Switzerland are also encouraging people with B permits (not especially Brits) to apply for citizenship. From 2018 only people with C permits may apply.

Source

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	The German Greens have called on Angela Merkel’s government to offer fast-track citizenship to Britons living in Germany in an effort to ensure they can remain once Britain leaves the EU. Source The SP in Switzerland are also encouraging people with B permits (not especially Brits) to apply for citizenship. From 2018 only people with C permits may apply. Source

Anyone who has moved under free movement can stay...... so more of a headline catcher than anything else.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Anyone who has moved under free movement can stay...... so more of a headline catcher than anything else.

Do you have a source for this?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Do you have a source for this?

Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties.

Article 70. CONSEQUENCES OF THE TERMINATION OF A TREATY
1. Unless the treaty otherwise provides or the parties otherwise agree, the ter mination of a treaty under its provisions or in accordance with the present Conven
tion:
(a) Releases the parties from any obligation further to perform the treaty;
(b) Does not affect any right, obligation or legal situation of the parties created
through the execution of the treaty prior to its termination.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. Article 70. CONSEQUENCES OF THE TERMINATION OF A TREATY 1. Unless the treaty otherwise provides or the parties otherwise agree, the termination of a treaty under its provisions or in accordance with the present Convention: (a) Releases the parties from any obligation further to perform the treaty; (b) Does not affect any right, obligation or legal situation of the parties created through the execution of the treaty prior to its termination.

I guess you didn't actually bother reading what you posted - see bold bit which actually says the parties can do what they want.

In any event, taking the position of a UK national on a B permit here, the above only indicates that the B permit would remain valid until its normal expiry. The Swiss would be under no obligation to extend or renew it.

It depends entirely what comes out of the negotiation process - and in reality I would not expect anything to change for existing ex-pats apart from pensioners who are going to have fun and games with health care. But nothing is guaranteed.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. Article 70. CONSEQUENCES OF THE TERMINATION OF A TREATY 1. Unless the treaty otherwise provides or the parties otherwise agree, the ter mination of a treaty under its provisions or in accordance with the present Conven tion: (a) Releases the parties from any obligation further to perform the treaty; (b) Does not affect any right, obligation or legal situation of the parties created through the execution of the treaty prior to its termination.

READERS have contacted Connexion asking whether the 1969 Vienna Convention would protect ‘acquired rights’ for estimated half a million Britons living in France in the event of a Brexit – experts we consulted say it would not.

The London School of Economics’ professor of EU law, Damian Chalmers, said: “Basically, this argument of acquired rights for expatriates has nothing going for it.

“At the moment, for example, there is a right for Britons to work or reside in France under the EU treaty, but if that ends then who knows what the future will be.”

Acquired rights protected under the convention in Brexit would be limited to such areas as patents, contracts and property rights, he said.

An international and European law specialist from Nantes University, Renan Le Mestre, said the convention concerns rights of one state to another, and it would be difficult for a member of the public to rely on it in a court of law concerning their individual rights.

Source

[marton]

	Quote:
	I guess you didn't actually bother reading what you posted - see bold bit which actually says the parties can do what they want. In any event, taking the position of a UK national on a B permit here, the above only indicates that the B permit would remain valid until its normal expiry. The Swiss would be under no obligation to extend or renew it. It depends entirely what comes out of the negotiation process - and in reality I would not expect anything to change for existing ex-pats apart from pensioners who are going to have fun and games with health care. But nothing is guaranteed.

Actually it is slightly different for Switzerland.
The bi-lateral treaties provide for people retaining their residence rights after cancellation unlike the EU treaties.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	I guess you didn't actually bother reading what you posted - see bold bit which actually says the parties can do what they want. In any event, taking the position of a UK national on a B permit here, the above only indicates that the B permit would remain valid until its normal expiry. The Swiss would be under no obligation to extend or renew it. It depends entirely what comes out of the negotiation process - and in reality I would not expect anything to change for existing ex-pats apart from pensioners who are going to have fun and games with health care. But nothing is guaranteed.

They can't do what they want, the parties have to agree. Why would anyone agree to give up existing rights under b, it makes no sense.

Residents permits always last for 5 years, then the right of permanent residence exists.
Neither my Swiss residence permit or my Malta one make any mention of the EU or Britons requirement to remain a member.

Why will pensioners have fun & games with healthcare?I t can't be any more absurd than at the moment. I get free healthcare in Malta being British (no other EU country gets this), however once I receive a Swiss pension I will have to pay for Swiss health insurance.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. Article 70. CONSEQUENCES OF THE TERMINATION OF A TREATY 1. Unless the treaty otherwise provides or the parties otherwise agree, the ter mination of a treaty under its provisions or in accordance with the present Conven tion: (a) Releases the parties from any obligation further to perform the treaty; (b) Does not affect any right, obligation or legal situation of the parties created through the execution of the treaty prior to its termination.

The Vienna Convention refers to treaties between nations and the rights of nations not the rights of citizens. And the Treaty of Rome is different in that it grants rights to individual citizens and provides it's own mechanics for dealing with treaty breaches. Furthermore it's means of ratification makes it unique in that it is considered a treaty of the peoples of Europe and they are not parties to the Vienna Convention. That is why you see the question coming up in political talks - it is not obvious what will happen.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Actually it is slightly different for Switzerland. The bi-lateral treaties provide for people retaining their residence rights after cancellation unlike the EU treaties.

Yes, their rights at the time of termination not any future rights they may have been entitled to had the treaty remained in force. That is an issue for B permit holders.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Yes, their rights at the time of termination not any future rights they may have been entitled to had the treaty remained in force. That is an issue for B permit holders.

Surely only at renewal when most would be entitle to a C permit.

[SOBEIT]

Canton Zug will be in turmoil, most have B permits and can't get C because they have weak German.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	The German Greens have called on Angela Merkel’s government to offer fast-track citizenship to Britons living in Germany in an effort to ensure they can remain once Britain leaves the EU. Source The SP in Switzerland are also encouraging people with B permits (not especially Brits) to apply for citizenship. From 2018 only people with C permits may apply. Source

And unionist politicians in Northern Ireland are advising people to apply for Irish Passports. Apparently even Ian Paisley's son has done so!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Surely only at renewal when most would be entitle to a C permit.

I imagine if the holder works in an area where there is a proven gap in the labor market then a renewal could be expected, for the rest it is hard to say.

[marton]

"One EU diplomat at the heart of [Brexit] preparations said: “They [British negotiators] have to sort themselves out. They come from London and they don’t know what they want. They don’t know what their government wants, what their parliament wants. They have not prepared.”"

Lordy, Lordy what a mess this is....

They [EU] are also postulating that serious discussions may not start until late 2017 or even 2018.

The reason is that there are elections for Germany, France and Netherlands in 2017 so their senior politicians will be more interested politicking for votes at home instead of talking to UK about Brexit.
The second point is that the same senior politicians cannot guarantee who will be around after these elections so there is no point in starting negotiations that might be reversed or significantly changed.
Thirdly they do not want take any positions on Brexit before the elections since they do not know how their own electorate would react at the voting booth.

Another key point is the European Parliament elections in 2019; Brexit should really be finalised before then to avoid the risk of renegotiations.

Source

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	"One EU diplomat at the heart of [Brexit] preparations said: “They [British negotiators] have to sort themselves out. They come from London and they don’t know what they want. They don’t know what their government wants, what their parliament wants. They have not prepared.”" Lordy, Lordy what a mess this is.... They [EU] are also postulating that serious discussions may not start until late 2017 or even 2018. The reason is that there are elections for Germany, France and Netherlands in 2017 so their senior politicians will be more interested politicking for votes at home instead of talking to UK about Brexit. The second point is that the same senior politicians cannot guarantee who will be around after these elections so there is no point in starting negotiations that might be reversed or significantly changed. Thirdly they do not want take any positions on Brexit before the elections since they do not know how their own electorate would react at the voting booth. Another key point is the European Parliament elections in 2019; Brexit should really be finalised before then to avoid the risk of renegotiations. Source

And in addition to this you have Spain demanding joint administration of Gibraltar and the Irish PM stating that he will not tolerate an international border on the island of Ireland, so the veto queue is building. Although it now seems some diplomats are floating the idea of Gibraltar and NI remaining in customs union with Spain and Ireland after the exit. Will the UK accept such an idea.....