The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Urs Max]

As predicted, the various countries are positioning themselves to gain as much as they can. And yet some keep claiming that won't happen, that they can't be that unreasonable and childish.

That is just typical opening of negotiations. And then comes the compromises. That is when the adults step in.

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	As predicted, the various countries are positioning themselves to gain as much as they can. And yet some keep claiming that won't happen, that they can't be that unreasonable and childish.

"some keep claiming that won't happen, that they can't be that unreasonable and childish." Unfortunately the way the EU is organised it only requires one to be "unreasonable and childish" to change the whole context; sadly there is no possibility in such a case for "the adults to step in".
The only possibilities are for a bigger carrot or bigger stick to be found.

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	And in addition to this you have Spain demanding joint administration of Gibraltar and the Irish PM stating that he will not tolerate an international border on the island of Ireland, so the veto queue is building. Although it now seems some diplomats are floating the idea of Gibraltar and NI remaining in customs union with Spain and Ireland after the exit. Will the UK accept such an idea.....

"Will the UK accept such an idea....." As I posted before "“They [British negotiators] have to sort themselves out. They come from London and they don’t know what they want. They don’t know what their government wants, what their parliament wants. They have not prepared.”"

And as I have posted too many times before "The leavers did not have a single consolidated view; campaign promises were lies. So what can Brexit negotiators reasonably ask for from the EU and expect the majority of leavers to be content?

Plus almost daily there are surprises turning up!

For example, the way the pension plan works for EU employees is that they pay annual contributions. But these are not put into a fund instead they are used immediately to pay EU pensions and any difference from actual (positive or negative) is added to the EU budget.
So what happens in future years to the expectation that the UK will continue to pay many millions each year in the future to to EU pensioners (the EU pensioners who have already made their contributions in the past).

Of course this may impact the financial savings that were expected from Brexit.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	"some keep claiming that won't happen, that they can't be that unreasonable and childish." Unfortunately the way the EU is organised it only requires one to be "unreasonable and childish" to change the whole context; sadly there is no possibility in such a case for "the adults to step in". The only possibilities are for a bigger carrot or bigger stick to be found.

Not sure if the sarcasm behind my choice of words came thru. So to make sure I'm not misunderstood:
That's not childish, it's using a situation to one's advantage - nothing good or bad, just a fact of life. Like, for instance, Spain demanding common rule over Gibraltar. And that is exactly the duty of any representative, politician or not. From that follows that noone's in the position of an adult, though as you say perhaps someone in a possession of a big carrot or a frightening stick may decide to step in and make use of it.

[Reb77Br]

It does seem rather childish for certain politicians to have pushed (dishonestly) for a result they had no plan for, while expecting others to have already put a plan in place and threatening to cause trouble if it's not exactly the way they wanted it. Rather like a teenager nagging their parents to go on a trip with their friends, then getting stranded and expecting their parents to pick them up at the other end of the country, then threatening to trash their room if they're not allowed to go on another trip.

	Quote:
	he warned: “By the 2020 election if we haven’t got back our territorial fishing waters, haven’t got immigration numbers down, then you ain’t seen nothing yet” in terms of disruption to British politics. Nigel Farage announces European referendum tour

[marton]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	It does seem rather childish for certain politicians to have pushed (dishonestly) for a result they had no plan for, while expecting others to have already put a plan in place and threatening to cause trouble if it's not exactly the way they wanted it. Rather like a teenager nagging their parents to go on a trip with their friends, then getting stranded and expecting their parents to pick them up at the other end of the country, then threatening to trash their room if they're not allowed to go on another trip.

“By the 2020 election if we haven’t got back our territorial fishing waters...." Today the UK only possesses 13% of the EU’s total sea area, but is allocated 30% of the EU’s current fish quotas; seems only likely to end in tears?

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	“By the 2020 election if we haven’t got back our territorial fishing waters...." Today the UK only possesses 13% of the EU’s total sea area, but is allocated 30% of the EU’s current fish quotas; seems only likely to end in tears?

Not sure if those figures are accurate but it may have to do with not all fishing ground being made equal. British waters are fed by the gulf stream bringing with it rich supplies of nutrients and migratory fish. It's not for no reason that everybody else wants to fish in British water.

Go to your local fishmongers and check where the fish comes from. Norway and Spain may be among the typical countries. But this only means the trawlers that brought it in are registered to those countries, and has little bearing on the actual location the fish were netted. If Britain were catching 30% of fish you would see much more British fish on supermarket shelves, even in Switzerland.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	Not sure if those figures are accurate but it may have to do with not all fishing ground being made equal. British waters are fed by the gulf stream bringing with it rich supplies of nutrients and migratory fish. It's not for no reason that everybody else wants to fish in British water. Go to your local fishmongers and check where the fish comes from. Norway and Spain may be among the typical countries. But this only means the trawlers that brought it in are registered to those countries, and has little bearing on the actual location the fish were netted. If Britain were catching 30% of fish you would see much more British fish on supermarket shelves, even in Switzerland.

UK will continue to be bound by obligations under the UN convention on the law of the sea and the UN fish stocks agreement, whether in or out of Europe.

[Deep Purple]

	Quote:	marton
	“By the 2020 election if we haven’t got back our territorial fishing waters...." Today the UK only possesses 13% of the EU’s total sea area, but is allocated 30% of the EU’s current fish quotas; seems only likely to end in tears?

It isn't as simple as just the quotas. Under EU regulations, vessels from anywhere in the EU can register in the UK and then fish the UK waters, taking the catch back to their own country. British registered trawlers from France, Belgium and Holland are often seen fishing off the South coast of England.

Another problem is the distribution of the quotas. The large corporate owners have a far greater share of the quotas, leaving the small independent owners struggling with ridiculously low quotas

This is a reply I got from one of the local Labour MEPs when I reported boats fishing off Hastings

	Quote:
	Thank you for your e-mail highlighting your concerns about EU vessels fishing off the coast of Hastings. I can understand your concerns about Dutch vessels in British waters, particularly around the coast of Hastings. As you have rightly pointed out, Hastings has a small fleet of fishing vessels, which are very important to the local economy. The Hastings’ fishing vessels were the first in the world to gain the Marine Stewardship Council’s internationally recognised eco-label, which is fast becoming the badge of sustainability for its sole, mackerel and herring fishing, and we should be doing everything we can to ensure that fishing in Hastings benefits the people of Hastings, and the local economy. However, whilst I do not know the exact circumstances of the Dutch vessels, it sounds likely that despite their previous history, they are not doing anything illegal. This is due to the Common Fisheries Policy of the EU. The Common Fisheries Policy, adopted in 1983, was imposed in order to ensure that declining fish stocks are exploited responsibly. Under the Common Fisheries Policy, EU member state vessels have a regime of equal access from all member states in the EU’s exclusive fishing zone. This is due to the view that fish are a natural and mobile resource, and they do not adhere to national boundaries. This is stipulated to be 200 nautical miles from its coastline. EU member states have a 12 mile zone around their own coastline within which their own fishing vessels have their own exclusive rights. The UK Government have also previously shared your concerns following the registration of foreign vessels as British. This can be seen with the passing of the Merchant Shipping Act 1988, which introduced the Merchant Shipping (Registration of Fishing Vessels) Regulations. In these regulations, a vessel could only be registered as British if it had a ‘genuine and substantial connection’ with the UK. For this to be the case, three conditions had to be fulfilled: (i) the vessel must be British-owned, (ii) the vessel had to be managed and its operations had to be directed and controlled from the UK, and (iii) any charterer, manager or operator had to be a qualified person or company. A ‘qualified person or company’ was a person who was a British citizen resident and domiciled in the UK or a company which was incorporated in the UK and had its principal place of business there having at least 75% of its shares owned by, and at least 75% of its directors being, ‘qualified persons.’ However, this statute was challenged by Factortame Limited, a Spanish fishing company. Previously able to register their vessels under the old legislation, under the stipulations of the new Merchant Shipping Act in 1988, they would have been unable to re-register. As such, they launched a preliminary injunction, where they stated that the offending part of the 1988 Act could not be applied to them on the grounds that such application would be contrary to directly effective rights under EU law. These rights included the right not to be discriminated against on the grounds of nationality, the right of individuals and companies to establish themselves in business anywhere in the EU, and the right to participate in the capital of companies situated in another Member State. As you can imagine, this was a very contentious issue, and the UK Government disagreed. As such, this case was taken through the British judicial system, from the High Court, to the Court of Appeal, and to the then House of Lords, and eventually, to the European Court of Justice. The ultimate ruling of this case was that where national law directly conflicts with an EU law, the law of the EU will ultimately prevail. For local economies like Hastings, it is important to ensure that these fisheries are sustainable, but most of all, profitable. The MSC accreditation has ensured that consumers have started to recognise the logo, and buy the local sustainable fish sold by the local traders. This is particularly true of the local restaurant and hospitality industries. As part of a team of Labour MEPs, I have been working to reform The Common Fisheries Policy. Whilst it has laudable aims of trying to ensure sustainability by protecting fish, and protecting fisherman, the Common Fisheries Policy does have its flaws. In 2014, we voting overwhelmingly in favour of far-reaching reforms aimed at saving our dwindling fish stocks. There were a whole host of reforms made to the Common Fisheries Policy, including removing the policy of ‘discarding.’ This removed the requirement to throw fish, often dead, back into the sea, as they did not fulfil EU size regulations. There is now going to be increased regionalisation as to EU fisheries policies, allowing Member States to tailor fisheries management to local conditions. Member States will be given the facility to submit joint recommendations to the Commission on how obligations will be met within shared regions. The EU are also attempting to deal with the overcapacity of the fleet, as the capacity of the EU fleet to catch fish exceeds the number of fish available to be caught. Member States will now be required to report annually to the Commission, describing the capacity of their fleets set against the fishing opportunities available. This should help to safeguard places like Hastings against overfishing by huge vessels. These reforms will be hugely beneficial for the fish, but also for places like Hastings. Jobs in the fishing industry have been in sharp decline, but allowing fish stocks to fully recover by 2020 is expected to lead to a 30% increase in jobs for fishermen by 2022. Anneliese Dodds MEP

[marton]

	Quote:	Deep Purple
	It isn't as simple as just the quotas. Under EU regulations, vessels from anywhere in the EU can register in the UK and then fish the UK waters, taking the catch back to their own country. British registered trawlers from France, Belgium and Holland are often seen fishing off the South coast of England. Another problem is the distribution of the quotas. The large corporate owners have a far greater share of the quotas, leaving the small independent owners struggling with ridiculously low quotas This is a reply I got from one of the local Labour MEPs when I reported boats fishing off Hastings

Now we seemed to have moved from fishing rights to the topic of foreign ownership of UK businesses.
Quote "More than half of all shares in UK companies are in foreign hands" Source

	Quote:	marton
	“By the 2020 election if we haven’t got back our territorial fishing waters...." Today the UK only possesses 13% of the EU’s total sea area, but is allocated 30% of the EU’s current fish quotas; seems only likely to end in tears?

How can you seriously argue that UK fishing would be better off in the EU? The industry has been decimated. Iceland aren't in the EU, and Greenland left precisely due to fishing regulations. Your statistics are meaningless.

[Reb77Br]

It doesn't look as if being outside the EU will necessarily bring a bonanza for all UK fishermen. Perhaps only to those already doing well.

Iceland's fishing industry 'better off outside' EU
"...while bigger companies on the island are flourishing, the small-scale fleet is shrinking. Some fear traditional fishing methods may die out altogether... The 10 biggest families in Iceland control 50-60% of the quota. ... Since 1984, the number of people working in the industry has gone down by half. Smaller boats are struggling - just as they are in the UK."

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Iceland aren't in the EU, and Greenland left precisely due to fishing regulations. Your statistics are meaningless.

Iceland's absence in the EU is a consequence of the Cod War... against the UK.

What happened with the fish industry in the UK is precisely what Iceland didn't want for themselves as the part of fishing in the economy is not the same and still, the small fishers are dying out in Iceland like anywhere else, because this is due to the nature of industrial structures with or without EU. I totally understand that UK fishery wants to ban other EU boats from UK waters. The issue however is what happens with the fish caught by EU-free English fishers: Will it be too expensive for UK consumer? Under which conditions will it be allowed as import into the EU or elsewhere? Where will the investment needed to put up fishing industry up going in the UK come from? Will the UK demand reparations for decimated fishing industry due to EU regulations? Will fishing issues be put into the balance in a bigger plan of negotiations and what weight would it then have? And will all this fish be caught by English fishers for themselves or by English employees on boats for big (foreign or not) companies paying peanuts? One can hope. Farage does.

The reason Norway still has a good fishing industry is that they export the cod for high prices, two third of exported fish comes from fish farming with salmon as a main product, and Norwegian consumers buy Norwegian fish a lot hence paying for their own fishing industry. Will the UK be able to do that? Will they be competitive against Norway for the same kind of fish? How much of this success depends on weak national currency towards the Euro and oil prices creating prediction uncertainty? Will EU countries buy English fish the same way they buy Norwegian fish thanks to Norway's access to the single market? One can hope. Farage does.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Faltrad
	Iceland's absence in the EU is a consequence of the Cod War... against the UK. What happened with the fish industry in the UK is precisely what Iceland didn't want for themselves as the part of fishing in the economy is not the same and still, the small fishers are dying out in Iceland like anywhere else, because this is due to the nature of industrial structures with or without EU. I totally understand that UK fishery wants to ban other EU boats from UK waters. The issue however is what happens with the fish caught by EU-free English fishers: Will it be too expensive for UK consumer? Under which conditions will it be allowed as import into the EU or elsewhere? Where will the investment needed to put up fishing industry up going in the UK come from? Will the UK demand reparations for decimated fishing industry due to EU regulations? Will fishing issues be put into the balance in a bigger plan of negotiations and what weight would it then have? And will all this fish be caught by English fishers for themselves or by English employees on boats for big (foreign or not) companies paying peanuts? One can hope. Farage does. The reason Norway still has a good fishing industry is that they export the cod for high prices, two third of exported fish comes from fish farming with salmon as a main product, and Norwegian consumers buy Norwegian fish a lot hence paying for their own fishing industry. Will the UK be able to do that? Will they be competitive against Norway for the same kind of fish? How much of this success depends on weak national currency towards the Euro and oil prices creating prediction uncertainty? Will EU countries buy English fish the same way they buy Norwegian fish thanks to Norway's access to the single market? One can hope. Farage does.

Scottish Salmon tastes much nicer, than any farmed Salmon, I generally avoid Norwegian farmed salmon as it's got such a boring taste & horrible colour v the real thing.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Scottish Salmon tastes much nicer, than any farmed Salmon, I generally avoid Norwegian farmed salmon as it's got such a boring taste & horrible colour v the real thing.

Congratulations, you'll save the UK on your own after Brexit, provided Scotland stay in the UK.
Does Mrs May know?

[Chuff]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	It doesn't look as if being outside the EU will necessarily bring a bonanza for all UK fishermen. Perhaps only to those already doing well. Iceland's fishing industry 'better off outside' EU "...while bigger companies on the island are flourishing, the small-scale fleet is shrinking. Some fear traditional fishing methods may die out altogether... The 10 biggest families in Iceland control 50-60% of the quota. ... Since 1984, the number of people working in the industry has gone down by half. Smaller boats are struggling - just as they are in the UK."

That is basically due to bigger and better competition. Small family-run businesses cannot realistically expect to compete against large commercial organisations that run on lower margins.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	How can you seriously argue that UK fishing would be better off in the EU? The industry has been decimated. Iceland aren't in the EU, and Greenland left precisely due to fishing regulations. Your statistics are meaningless.

"Your statistics are meaningless." As is your post.

How do you think UK fishing will be better off outside the EU? Please state your reasons?

The same economies of scale will continue to apply in UK as in Iceland; larger firms will become larger and the small fishers will continue dying out.
Sad but true

	Quote:	marton
	"Your statistics are meaningless." As is your post. How do you think UK fishing will be better off outside the EU? Please state your reasons? The same economies of scale will continue to apply in UK as in Iceland; larger firms will become larger and the small fishers will continue dying out. Sad but true

I haven't said it would be better off out of the EU. I think that boat has sailed, pardon the pun, and I don't think the fishing industry in the UK will ever recover in or out of the EU.

My point was the EU pretty much screwed up the UK fishing industry. Whereas in Iceland, Greenland and Norway it thrived, precisely because they weren't members of the EU.

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	My point was the EU pretty much screwed up the UK fishing industry. Whereas in Iceland, Greenland and Norway it thrived, precisely because they weren't members of the EU.

In other words, you are talking about the past we all know, we are talking about the future nobody knows...