The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	Wollishofener
	There was no SINGLE BLOCK for Switzerland but CH had to gain approvals for all the bilaterals from all EU countries (THIS is what I mean)

All major EU decisions have to be approved by every EU country; the Swiss bilaterals would have been blocked if one EU country had not approved.

	Quote:	Wollishofener
	There was no SINGLE BLOCK for Switzerland but CH had to gain approvals for all the bilaterals from all EU countries (THIS isv what I mean

I think you're confusing "Block" as in a collective group of countries and "Block" as in a veto.

1. The EU is a trading block.

2. Any one EU country could block (veto) the Swiss bilaterals

Two completely different meanings.

	Quote:
	I think you're confusing "Block" as in a collective group of countries and "Block" as in a veto. 1. The EU is a trading block. 2. Any one EU country could block (veto) the Swiss bilaterals Two completely different meanings.

Which is why we differentiate between them by spelling: trade bloc vs any other sort of block.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	the Swiss bilaterals would have been blocked if one EU country had not approved.

I would like to add that this only applies to the Bilaterals1 and is only correct due to the all-or-nothing clause (Guilloutineklausel). Only FMOP actually required ratification by all national parliaments.

	Quote:
	Which is why we differentiate between them by spelling: trade bloc vs any other sort of block.

Oops - true. My excuse is that the spelling changed since I was a school

[lewton]

	Quote:
	Oops - true. My excuse is that the spelling changed since I was a school

So now you're not a school anymore? What have you turned into?

[marton]

Not really relevant but anyway;
One of former UKIP leader Nigel Farage’s closest political allies faces years in jail after he was detained in Chicago on suspicious of offering to launder money for drug lords.

George Cottrell, 22, is in custody in the US awaiting trial on 21 charges including attempted extortion, money laundering and fraud, after he was led away in handcuffs.

Cottrell’s bank and email accounts have been frozen, leaving Mr Farage unable to access his personal diary, it has been claimed.

Source

[marton]

Good to have this point clarified
"U.K. Vows to Match EU Subsidies for Farmers Post-Brexit
Treasury chief Philip Hammond seeks to reassure amid concerns over economic uncertainty"

"The government will also pick up the tab for any EU funding agreed for economic development or scientific research that extends beyond the U.K.’s departure, the Treasury said in a statement."

Source

[TobiasM]

Interesting article on the consequences that Britain might feel being similar to the restrictions that have Switzerland are starting to feel after the immigration referendum. Its quite something to be so staunchly anti-immigration and not expect consequences in a global economy.

Theresa May’s Swiss holiday will show her just how bad Brexit could be

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	Three Brexit ministers - Mr Johnson, the foreign secretary, David Davis, the Brexit secretary, and Liam Fox, international trade secretary. I wonder how they will divide the Brexit work between them, who does what? David Davis has the title Brexit secretary so could take the lead but only a third of the people in the Foreign Office European directorate moved over to him. Consequently Boris has more "European" people and anyway is the more senior in the Cabinet hierarchy. Lots of scope for disputes over responsibilities

As forecast the first sign of turf wars; Liam Fox tried to wrest control of Foreign Office duties from Boris Johnson Source.

Quote "Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, said May was to blame for the jostling between the departments. “She created these three separate departments, not because it made sense in terms of coordinating Whitehall’s management of Brexit, but just to buy the loyalty of Liam Fox, Boris Johnson and David Davis,” she said."

And Theresa May's response is to tell them to just get on with it:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-games-and-ge/

And for all the people who are negative about BREXIT, some counter news. I know someone who works in a London Bank and they're all looking forward to it, can't come soon enough. Corporation Tax will be lowered or something and then companies will come. London is planning to build many sky scrapers and develop.

Sure it's only word of mouth and I have no links, but so what, the truth is no one knows what will happen.

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	And Theresa May's response is to tell them to just get on with it: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-games-and-ge/ And for all the people who are negative about BREXIT, some counter news. I know someone who works in a London Bank and they're all looking forward to it, can't come soon enough. Corporation Tax will be lowered or something and then companies will come. London is planning to build many sky scrapers and develop. Sure it's only word of mouth and I have no links, but so what, the truth is no one knows what will happen.

"Theresa May's response is to tell them to just get on with it" instead of better defining their roles

"Corporation Tax will be lowered" The published proposal is to lower it from 20% to 18%; compare this with Ireland where it is 12.5% and companies will have guaranteed access to the "single market".

Does not look so exciting to me

[TobiasM]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	AI know someone who works in a London Bank and they're all looking forward to it, can't come soon enough.

Doubtful that they are all looking forward to it, as its going to screw most of them over in their professional lifetimes, because that is how long it will take to recover.

	Quote:	TobiasM
	Doubtful that they are all looking forward to it, as its going to screw most of them over in their professional lifetimes, because that is how long it will take to recover.

Just a matter of interest why do you say doubtful they said that, when in fact that's exactly what they said.

As I say you and I both have no idea what will happen. You take the negative angle, I use my views for the positive angle.

The telegraph article says that sources close to May say she's pressing ahead and is not wavering.

True it can all change and we believe what we want.

It was stated during the referendum that the UK has a trade deficit with Europe. So isn't it in Europe's interest to keep the UK on-board. All this hard-talk from the Euro ministers has been ignored so far.

Everyone who is negative plays the angle of how great Europe is to be in. Is it really doing so well at the moment when you look at it and if so why? I'm willing to be convinced.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	TobiasM
	Doubtful that they are all looking forward to it, as its going to screw most of them over in their professional lifetimes, because that is how long it will take to recover.

The Banks are all in effect Bankrupt & should be wound up rather than supported.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	"Corporation Tax will be lowered" The published proposal is to lower it from 20% to 18%; compare this with Ireland where it is 12.5% and companies will have guaranteed access to the "single market".

It's not just that, there is also cheap office space and facilities, although colleagues tell me certain banks have negotiated options on their preferred location just in case... It's been a few years since I was in the IFSC area, but since the building boom, there were lots of new office buildings standing empty, even new trams and bus stops, space for newsagents, coffee shops etc...

For staff transfers it's an English speaking environment within easy reach of home and you'll still get the papers, the BBC and the fried breakfast, but watch out for the builder's breakfast roll:



The only really issue for staff would be the cost of housing which is rising.

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Just a matter of interest why do you say doubtful they said that, when in fact that's exactly what they said. As I say you and I both have no idea what will happen. You take the negative angle, I use my views for the positive angle. The telegraph article says that sources close to May say she's pressing ahead and is not wavering. True it can all change and we believe what we want. It was stated during the referendum that the UK has a trade deficit with Europe. So isn't it in Europe's interest to keep the UK on-board. All this hard-talk from the Euro ministers has been ignored so far. Everyone who is negative plays the angle of how great Europe is to be in. Is it really doing so well at the moment when you look at it and if so why? I'm willing to be convinced.

"how great Europe is to be in" It is because of the "single market".
Without that it would mean that businesses were subject to steep tariffs on goods exported to the EU, including a 10% duty on cars and 12% on clothing, and having no access to the EU’s service markets or financial service markets.
Currently the proportion of all UK goods and services exported going to the EU was 44% last year so it is vital to retain that.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	It was stated during the referendum that the UK has a trade deficit with Europe. So isn't it in Europe's interest to keep the UK on-board. All this hard-talk from the Euro ministers has been ignored so far.

Well there is a very big difference between trying to keep someone on board and giving up you fundamental principles. And since recent UK exports to the EU accounted for 48% of it's exports, the possibility of loosing preferential access to it's biggest market, a relatively wealth market within easy proximity, should make the UK more accommodating don't you think???

You also have to keep in mind that trade with the UK benefits some countries more than others, who are even less likely to break with fundamental principles. And then there are others like Spain who sees it as a golden opportunity to gain some control over Gibraltar and Ireland has stated that they will not tolerate an international border on the island of Ireland, which seems to suggest that NI would need to remain in some kind of customs union with the EU, which no doubt would lead to Scotland demanding the same. This means that there are at least two potential vetos on the EU side. EFTA membership now also seems in doubt with Norway stating that it would veto such an application as it feels the UK would create an imbalance within the group.

One thing about article 50 that people overlook, is that all trade agreements the UK benefits from as an EU member will also have to be addressed at the same time. And with limited negotiators available this will also be a challenge.

There are definitely very serious challenges ahead.

So the single market is the big benefit. But if I understand it correctly, the UK has a trade deficit with Europe at the moment. How can that be a positive?

The way the UK trades with the European market has to now be re-negotiated and everything is then open. Do you really think the single market will go away for the UK? The UK does have a strong hand, it gave a lot to Europe (more than it took). Both sides realize this, regardless of what they say publicly.

People are quoting precedents like Canada, Norway and Switzerland, but the UK is different and there is nothing to stop it negotiating it's own deal and hopefully it does that.

Free movement of people is open for debate and can now be controlled. The leaders of the EU have less control over the UK.

Whether this all works out well or not is unknown for us all, but the reason people voted for BREXIT is the opportunity to have these changes. I have seen a lot of the coverage in the UK and it doesn't change. They are willing to wait it out. The remainers had their chance to put their case and failed miserably.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	So the single market is the big benefit. But if I understand it correctly, the UK has a trade deficit with Europe at the moment. How can that be a positive?

Because it's more than made up for by services, which UK exports. This money flow (trade+service) is summed up in the balance of payments.

Plus, an awful lot of money coming from the continent is managed by UK financial entities, typically they're located in London. Each year they typically are paid anywhere between 0.5% and 2% of the money managed. AFAIK (I may be wrong) these fees don't show up in the payments balance even though their nature is kind of an export of services, so actual gains by UK are considerably bigger than the payment balance shows. If the UK leaves the EEA it will most probably lose it's dominant position as a financial center (Luxemburg and Frankfurt are drooling already) and thus a big portion of these commisions. This in turn will negatively affect house prices, first commercial and second (once the jobs are gone) residential. We have seen a few years back how falling house prices affect the economy as a whole.

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	The way the UK trades with the European market has to now be re-negotiated and everything is then open. Do you really think the single market will go away for the UK? The UK does have a strong hand, it gave a lot to Europe (more than it took). Both sides realize this, regardless of what they say publicly.

If UK remains in the single market and thus with FMOP there's little point in leaving the EU in the first place.

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	People are quoting precedents like Canada, Norway and Switzerland, but the UK is different and there is nothing to stop it negotiating it's own deal and hopefully it does that.

Yes there is, they require a counterparty. Switzerland has been looking for a partner to negotiate with for almost three years now, and counting.

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Free movement of people is open for debate and can now be controlled. The leaders of the EU have less control over the UK. Whether this all works out well or not is unknown for us all, but the reason people voted for BREXIT is the opportunity to have these changes. I have seen a lot of the coverage in the UK and it doesn't change. They are willing to wait it out. The remainers had their chance to put their case and failed miserably.

UK wants access to EEA without FMOP, that doesn't compute. Without free access the economy (in particular the financials) will suffer, and with FMOP it's not what voters voted for. Try sqaring a circle.