The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Because it's more than made up for by services, which UK exports. This money flow (trade+service) is summed up in the balance of payments. Yes there is, they require a counterparty. Switzerland has been looking for a partner to negotiate with for almost three years now, and counting. UK wants access to EEA without FMOP, that doesn't compute. Without free access the economy (in particular the financials) will suffer, and with FMOP it's not what voters voted for. Try sqaring a circle.

The thing is it's all open. Europe is willing to negotiate with the UK because they want part of the UK. Germany and the UK were the only two nations that met all the criteria for the free market, so the UK is a big player. Germany exports a lot to the UK, they will want to maintain that. Switzerland is not such a player. The quote during the referendum was that the overall balance between the UK and Europe is in Europe's favour.

There's also the rest of the world to negotiate with (more than half of the UK trade).

Sure people want to trade with Europe, but it's not the target market anymore. Listen to executives, they target Asia, and America is always a target. Europe as it stands at the moment is not an attractive proposition. The member states are all struggling with several issues.

The UK will always be able to attract business because it's the English speaking access point to Europe. America and Asia are already saying they stay on terms.

FMOP is not a sustainable concept. People move naturally to acquire wealth, they don't move in the opposite direction. Which leads to overcrowding and social issues.

The original idea of the European market for free trade is good, but what Europe has built up politically around it is not acceptable to the masses.

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	The thing is it's all open. Europe is willing to negotiate with the UK because they want part of the UK. Germany and the UK were the only two nations that met all the criteria for the free market, so the UK is a big player. Germany exports a lot to the UK, they will want to maintain that. Switzerland is not such a player. The quote during the referendum was that the overall balance between the UK and Europe is in Europe's favour. There's also the rest of the world to negotiate with (more than half of the UK trade). Sure people want to trade with Europe, but it's not the target market anymore. Listen to executives, they target Asia, and America is always a target. Europe as it stands at the moment is not an attractive proposition. The member states are all struggling with several issues. The UK will always be able to attract business because it's the English speaking access point to Europe. America and Asia are already saying they stay on terms. FMOP is not a sustainable concept. People move naturally to acquire wealth, they don't move in the opposite direction. Which leads to overcrowding and social issues. The original idea of the European market for free trade is good, but what Europe has built up politically around it is not acceptable to the masses.

"Europe is willing to negotiate with the UK" Do you have a source for this?

"There's also the rest of the world to negotiate with (more than half of the UK trade)." But this trade is mostly via the single market EU free trade agreements with the rest of the world which will no longer be available to UK after Brexit.

[marton]

UK£ today buys CHF 1.25
20% down from the November peak of CHF 1.55

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	The UK will always be able to attract business because it's the English speaking access point to Europe. America and Asia are already saying they stay on terms.

Except that there is another English speaking country with guaranteed access to the single market, passporting of financial services, lower corporate taxes and plenty of cheap office space....

They have also trebbled their trade missions for this year, beefed up their staff of advisers in London to help companies wanting to move and are working to get EU institutions currently based in the UK to move there.

No doubt other EU members are doing the same!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	The original idea of the European market for free trade is good, but what Europe has built up politically around it is not acceptable to the masses.

Well again, neither the EEC nor the EU had free trade as the main objective that would be EFTA, the organization that Norway has said it would veto the UK's application to join.

And the masses of voters at the last EU Parliament elections voted for parties that supported a more integrated EU, which is why Junker heads the Commission.

Long on opinions and very short on facts.

[TobiasM]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Just a matter of interest why do you say doubtful they said that, when in fact that's exactly what they said. As I say you and I both have no idea what will happen. You take the negative angle, I use my views for the positive angle. The telegraph article says that sources close to May say she's pressing ahead and is not wavering. True it can all change and we believe what we want. It was stated during the referendum that the UK has a trade deficit with Europe. So isn't it in Europe's interest to keep the UK on-board. All this hard-talk from the Euro ministers has been ignored so far. Everyone who is negative plays the angle of how great Europe is to be in. Is it really doing so well at the moment when you look at it and if so why? I'm willing to be convinced.

You said they ALL said that? Sorry but I read the news in the papers and the magazines and they do not ALL feel or say what you said.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	The thing is it's all open.

Not all, no. For instance no EEA without FMOP looks like it's a given.

With that said, those portions that are indeed open are exactly the problem for the next few years (more if rumors that article 50 won't be invoked before 2019 are true). Businesses don't know what parameters to use on profit calculations for future investments, hence investments from abroad are virtually guaranteed to shrink. There's a reason estimates for UK GDP growth have been revised downwards for 2017 and 2018 due to the "Leave" vote.

	Quote:	marton
	"Europe is willing to negotiate with the UK" Do you have a source for this? "There's also the rest of the world to negotiate with (more than half of the UK trade)." But this trade is mostly via the single market EU free trade agreements with the rest of the world which will no longer be available to UK after Brexit.

Merkel herself and she's the only one who counts. She has said it since the referendum. Who was the first person May went to? (forget Sturgeon ) It's between them to sort out.

Yes the single market EU free trade needs to be re-negotiated, but China has already said it will deal with the UK and that is the big one. The US has stated that the "special" friendship remains.

There was something that the EU is still negotiating an agreement with China and it's taken years, not sure of the exact details, but then as soon as BREXIT came China said it would negotiate with the UK.

Why will the EU not be available to the UK after BREXIT? do you really believe that they will cut all ties to the UK. The worst case net scenario that was presented by the remainers during the referendum was the status quo. Who wouldn't want to re-negotiate when the worst case is the status quo. This came out of the debates that they had. Yes I know how you present stats is variable, but it was the same for both sides.

People are massively overplaying how negative it is for the UK and that Europe holds all the cards. The simple fact is they don't. But let's see how it plays out.

Europe as it stood before the referendum was a failing entity and needed drastic action.

Another stat that you might like to have is that, had it been a general election 85% of the seats would have gone to BREXIT. That came out afterwards. How that comes from the 52% i don't know, but it's interesting none the less.

And when you think of who was for and who was against in lines of influence, then you realise what a monumental result it was and how unhappy Joe Public was with the current setup.

[Belgianmum]

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...d-eu-migration

It is the guardian so make of it what you will but I wonder if Teresa May is taking notes during her holidays?

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Merkel herself and she's the only one who counts. She has said it since the referendum. Who was the first person May went to? (forget Sturgeon ) It's between them to sort out. Yes the single market EU free trade needs to be re-negotiated, but China has already said it will deal with the UK and that is the big one. The US has stated that the "special" friendship remains. There was something that the EU is still negotiating an agreement with China and it's taken years, not sure of the exact details, but then as soon as BREXIT came China said it would negotiate with the UK. Why will the EU not be available to the UK after BREXIT? do you really believe that they will cut all ties to the UK. The worst case net scenario that was presented by the remainers during the referendum was the status quo. Who wouldn't want to re-negotiate when the worst case is the status quo. This came out of the debates that they had. Yes I know how you present stats is variable, but it was the same for both sides. People are massively overplaying how negative it is for the UK and that Europe holds all the cards. The simple fact is they don't. But let's see how it plays out. Europe as it stood before the referendum was a failing entity and needed drastic action. Another stat that you might like to have is that, had it been a general election 85% of the seats would have gone to BREXIT. That came out afterwards. How that comes from the 52% i don't know, but it's interesting none the less. And when you think of who was for and who was against in lines of influence, then you realise what a monumental result it was and how unhappy Joe Public was with the current setup.

"Why will the EU not be available to the UK after BREXIT?" Because the UK has decided to leave the EU due to Brexit.
It is not a case of the EU leaving the UK

As many people have posted if the EU should agree to negotiate an FTA with the UK then (like Norway and Switzerland) it will include FMOP and contributions by the UK to the EU budget; UK will lose the ability to influence, to vote on and to veto new EU rules.
Will the people who voted for Brexit be happy with this solution.

"Merkel herself " assuming she is still there after the German elections next year
Anyway
Quote; "Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has dismissed Boris Johnson’s proposal that Britain might enjoy access to the European single market and restrict immigration at the same time, telling German MPs the UK would enjoy no special favours."

Source

Yes the Guardian, as above about her holiday in Switzerland showing how bad BREXIT for England would be. Haven't read it, but the headline is spectacular!!!!

I'm a bit sceptical of all press. Both sides. Whenever you read an article the last sentence usually contradicts/negates the headline, but who reads that far?

Predictions, forecasts, negative scaremongering were all tried during the campaign and you know the result. Emergency budgets required, armageddon, next world war, fear, panic the lot. A sickening death during the campaign.

The negative effects on the economy were pushed constantly.

The result was the majority said no, we don't want this anymore.

It was a campaign like any other, the same players who had won before, in fact how many players were for BREXIT?

And still the remainers say we have to accept FMOP and all these other things, but the serious question is why? The UK was one of the two (+Germany) big givers to Europe. They were a major player. When you're such you don't just walk away and say "ok we'll do what you say now". It's not logical.

But inspite of this, how much will everything really change? I see it more as a checkpoint. People have to look and say what is going on here? Is it overall for the good and sustainable?

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Quote; "Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has dismissed Boris Johnson’s proposal that Britain might enjoy access to the European single market and restrict immigration at the same time, telling German MPs the UK would enjoy no special favours."

Angela Merkel has managed to flip flop on every important issue: Nuclear power, minimum wage, visas for Turkey, military service ... hey, in her youth she marched with FDJ and swore eternal allegiance to communism.

But when she says her opinion on Brexit won't change, we're expected to believe her?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	And still the remainers say we have to accept FMOP and all these other things, but the serious question is why?

Because that's what the EU demands: There's no privileged access to the EEA without FMOP, both or none.

	Quote:	amogles
	But when she says her opinion on Brexit won't change, we're expected to believe her?

Wrt EEA/FMOP, so far yes.

I agree that she's a Wendehals and that the direction her flag waves changes with the wind. And I woulnd't mind at all if FMOP fell. But that's not really useful as in all likelihood UK will have to negotiate based on the status quo.

[Reb77Br]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	The UK was one of the two (+Germany) big givers to Europe. They were a major player. When you're such you don't just walk away and say "ok we'll do what you say now". It's not logical.

Do you think 27 member states will now dance to one former member state's tune? Surely the UK as chosen to exchange being a big fish in a small pond (Europe) for being a small fish in a big pond (the world), though Brexiter logic would seem to be that it will be an even bigger fish in the big pond.

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	Do you think 27 member states will now dance to one former member state's tune? Surely the UK as chosen to exchange being a big fish in a small pond (Europe) for being a small fish in a big pond (the world), though Brexiter logic would seem to be that it will be an even bigger fish in the big pond.

Maybe you misinterpreted what I said. It's now a negotiation, but the hand of the UK is being underplayed. They are the 6th biggest economy in the world (were the 5th but since Brexit fell behind France, so it's close). That is hardly a small fish in a big pond. The UK was also a significant net contributor to Europe, Europe doesn't want to give that up.

But it's a negotiation and it's then up to both sides to decide.

Brexit logic is that we have the chance to negotiate as a fairly significant player. Where does it say that we suddenly became bigger? No one is claiming that.

But this is all the trade argument,which is what lost in the referendum. The social / political issues are equally if not more significant. The trade was shown to be a non-issue.

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Maybe you misinterpreted what I said. It's now a negotiation, but the hand of the UK is being underplayed. They are the 6th biggest economy in the world (were the 5th but since Brexit fell behind France, so it's close). That is hardly a small fish in a big pond. The UK was also a significant net contributor to Europe, Europe doesn't want to give that up. But it's a negotiation and it's then up to both sides to decide. Brexit logic is that we have the chance to negotiate as a fairly significant player. Where does it say that we suddenly became bigger? No one is claiming that. But this is all the trade argument,which is what lost in the referendum. The social / political issues are equally if not more significant. The trade was shown to be a non-issue.

"The UK was also a significant net contributor to Europe, " As I posted before nay deal will include FMOP and big financial contributions from UK

[fatmanfilms]

Such a big deal on free movement when the UK's unemployment rate is very low v the rest of the EU. Realistically it's a bigger loss to the rest of the EU.

Oh unemployment fell in the uk since BREXIT vote

[TobiasM]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Such a big deal on free movement when the UK's unemployment rate is very low v the rest of the EU. Realistically it's a bigger loss to the rest of the EU. Oh unemployment fell in the uk since BREXIT vote

You do know that the government fiddles those numbers, by denying people unemployment benefit. Like the invisible homelessness that don't exist in London.

	Quote:	marton
	"The UK was also a significant net contributor to Europe, " As I posted before nay deal will include FMOP and big financial contributions from UK

Ok say why that is?

Negotiations haven't begun and you're giving the result. FMOP is a requirement when you're in Europe. UK is no longer in Europe. They are free to negotiate. They are negotiating with 27 countries but in reality only 1 or 2 count. there are interests on both sides.

America, China etc don't have FMOP with Europe.

Let the negotiations begin first.

[Reb77Br]

The UK economy is much smaller than the US or Chinese economies, and they are not in Europe. It's closer to the size of Switzerland's.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_GDP_(nominal)


I find it hard to imagine EU countries wanting to cut the UK a special deal without freedom of movement and little or no EU contribution, especially if doing so would strengthen other EU-exit movements.