The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Kosti]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Ok say why that is? Negotiations haven't begun and you're giving the result. FMOP is a requirement when you're in Europe. UK is no longer in Europe. They are free to negotiate. They are negotiating with 27 countries but in reality only 1 or 2 count. there are interests on both sides. America, China etc don't have FMOP with Europe.

Remarkable ignorance for an owl

The US and China dont have FMOP because they arent in the EU common market.

I dont know by what you mean by "in Europe". If by that you mean participating in the common market, its not just one or two countries.
Every single EU member has to agree to the terms the UK will have to accept in return for remaining in the common market.
So far, there is no sign that any country will let the UK into the common market without accepting FMoP

The UK can always opt to go to WTO rules like the US and China do in their trade with the EU.
Getting out of the common market is widely expected to give a big economic shock to the UK.

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Let the negotiations begin first.

LOL ... Deja vu.

This is the exact same stuff that was spouted when the Swiss voted to cancel FMOP. Two and a half years later, the position of the EU has not changed one bit. No FMOP, no bilaterals and therefore no common market if the Swiss cancel FMoP

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	TobiasM
	You do know that the government fiddles those numbers, by denying people unemployment benefit. Like the invisible homelessness that don't exist in London.

How is that different to Switzerland who takes people off the unemployed,meant register when their benefits run out?

[TobiasM]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	How is that different to Switzerland who takes people off the unemployed,meant register when their benefits run out?

I never said it was different, but it is different because every successive UK government wants to be seen to be achieving a higher levels of growth and a lower rate of unemployment. By massaging the figures through changing the eligibility criteria for benefits, i.e if someone is taken off because of long term unemployment and forced into unpaid employment, does that really count?

Post Brexit referendum Britain looks pretty bleak to me and saying unemployment is down really doesn't mean anything coming from this current Tory government.

[TobiasM]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	How is that different to Switzerland who takes people off the unemployed,meant register when their benefits run out?

After the AHV stops, they become social cases the only thing that changes is the amount of money the unemployed person is eligible to receive.

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	TobiasM
	After the AHV stops

AHV doesn't stop until you die.

Tom

[TobiasM]

	Quote:	st2lemans
	AHV doesn't stop until you die. Tom

I meant the initial unemployment payments once its reduced etc, etc.

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	TobiasM
	I meant the initial unemployment payments once its reduced etc, etc.

That's ALK, not AHV.

Anyway, unless you are broke and own no property, you won't be getting anything once ALK runs out, so you won't be a social case.

Tom

	Quote:	Kosti
	Remarkable ignorance for an owl The US and China dont have FMOP because they arent in the EU common market. I dont know by what you mean by "in Europe". If by that you mean participating in the common market, its not just one or two countries. Every single EU member has to agree to the terms the UK will have to accept in return for remaining in the common market. So far, there is no sign that any country will let the UK into the common market without accepting FMoP The UK can always opt to go to WTO rules like the US and China do in their trade with the EU. Getting out of the common market is widely expected to give a big economic shock to the UK. LOL ... Deja vu. This is the exact same stuff that was spouted when the Swiss voted to cancel FMOP. Two and a half years later, the position of the EU has not changed one bit. No FMOP, no bilaterals and therefore no common market if the Swiss cancel FMoP

Hihihihihihihi that's exactly how they played it in the referendum. A bit condascending, friendly banter but we know best. However as you know lots of things are widely expected and never come true (On a daily basis even. My ideal job is to be a weather predictor ). And hence the referendum was decided in favour.

The UK is starting negotiations from a different position to the other countries. Sure there are similarities and the negative ones are touted ad-infinitum. But the majority didn't buy them.

Look at it this way: you are presented with two choices:

1) The Status Quo
2) Change

You are not happy with the status quo.

The people who are for the status quo reveal in debates that the worse that can happen is we keep the status quo. (That's what came out of the televised debates - maybe they didn't argue very well - selber schuld).

So what do you do?

[Carlos R]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Hihihihihihihi that's exactly how they played it in the referendum. A bit condascending, friendly banter but we know best. However as you know lots of things are widely expected and never come true (On a daily basis even. My ideal job is to be a weather predictor ). And hence the referendum was decided in favour. The UK is starting negotiations from a different position to the other countries. Sure there are similarities and the negative ones are touted ad-infinitum. But the majority didn't buy them. Look at it this way: you are presented with two choices: 1) The Status Quo 2) Change You are not happy with the status quo. The people who are for the status quo reveal in debates that the worse that can happen is we keep the status quo. (That's what came out of the televised debates - maybe they didn't argue very well - selber schuld). So what do you do?

Vote for the unknown. Genius... I think I might have been less pissed off if the vote had been about 1 option vs another with frigging details.

	Quote:	Carlos R
	Vote for the unknown. Genius... I think I might have been less pissed off if the vote had been about 1 option vs another with frigging details.

Yes but the unknown was shown to be no worse than the status quo. Bizzare I know. But look at the positive, it can't be worse and the general unhappiness was loud, so it's an improvement.

Negotiate away. You can then form the unknown. It's now up to you.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Yes but the unknown was shown to be no worse than the status quo. Bizzare I know. But look at the positive, it can't be worse and the general unhappiness was loud, so it's an improvement.

Seriously! It has not even begun, prices are only starting to rise in the shops and the full impact of the currency situation will only be felt sometime around Christmas and into the new year. The impact will hit people on a fixed income such as pensioners and benefit recipients hard, many of who have voted for the exit. It will take years before anyone can determine the outcome.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Seriously! It has not even begun, prices are only starting to rise in the shops and the full impact of the currency situation will only be felt sometime around Christmas and into the new year. The impact will hit people on a fixed income such as pensioners and benefit recipients hard, many of who have voted for the exit. It will take years before anyone can determine the outcome.

Currency situation is exactly where we were 3 years ago, prices did not fall, so no reason why they should rise today.

This is a non story, I am amazed you have fallen for it hook line & sinker, your way too intelligent.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Negotiations haven't begun and you're giving the result. FMOP is a requirement when you're in Europe. UK is no longer in Europe. They are free to negotiate. They are negotiating with 27 countries but in reality only 1 or 2 count. there are interests on both sides.

You clearly have not got a clue about this! The negotiation will be with the Commission, not the 27 member states. When it comes to the approval point each member has the exactly the same rights to veto it. And it does not stop there because as an agreement with a third country it will need EU Parliament approval. And of course if it requires a treaty change, FMOP for example, it will also have to pass referenda in Denmark, Ireland and France. So ya good luck with that.

Now at this point it is time to start hitting the ignore button, as all you are doing is repaint the same opinion over and over again without address the issues.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	You clearly have not got a clue about this! The negotiation will be with the Commission, not the 27 member states. When it comes to the approval point each member has the exactly the same rights to veto it. And it does not stop there because as an agreement with a third country it will need EU Parliament approval. And of course if it requires a treaty change, FMOP for example, it will also have to pass referenda in Denmark, Ireland and France. So ya good luck with that. Now at this point it is time to start hitting the ignore button, as all you are doing is repaint the same opinion over and over again without address the issues.

The 1 country one vote is why the newly enlarged EU will fail, the votes need to be geared by the countries contributions to EU funds, that would be fair & Britain would not be leaving if it was the case.

You have to think back to the formation of Confederation Helvetica, it was more about not paying taxes to anyone else, perhaps we can learn from history.

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Hihihihihihihi that's exactly how they played it in the referendum. A bit condascending, friendly banter but we know best. However as you know lots of things are widely expected and never come true (On a daily basis even. My ideal job is to be a weather predictor ). And hence the referendum was decided in favour. The UK is starting negotiations from a different position to the other countries. Sure there are similarities and the negative ones are touted ad-infinitum. But the majority didn't buy them. Look at it this way: you are presented with two choices: 1) The Status Quo 2) Unknown You are not happy with the status quo. The people who are for the status quo reveal in debates that the worse that can happen is we keep the status quo. (That's what came out of the televised debates - maybe they didn't argue very well - selber schuld). So what do you do?

Fixed that for you

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Yes but the unknown was shown to be no worse than the status quo. Bizzare I know. But look at the positive, it can't be worse and the general unhappiness was loud, so it's an improvement. Negotiate away. You can then form the unknown. It's now up to you.

"More than 1 million eastern European migrants are now working in Britain, official figures reveal for first time" You really believe these countries will allow Britain to stay in the EU if UK limits immigration?

Source

"look at the positive, it can't be worse" Do you have source for this or is it just unfounded optimism?

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Currency situation is exactly where we were 3 years ago, prices did not fall, so no reason why they should rise today. This is a non story, I am amazed you have fallen for it hook line & sinker, your way too intelligent.

UK consumer price rises gathered speed, up 0.6 percent in July compared with a year earlier, their biggest rise since the end of 2014.
Economists in a Reuters poll had expected a 0.5 percent rise.

And factory gate prices rose at their fastest in over two years as the fall in sterling after the vote to leave the European Union pushed up import prices.

Source

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	TobiasM
	I never said it was different, but it is different because every successive UK government wants to be seen to be achieving a higher levels of growth and a lower rate of unemployment. By massaging the figures through changing the eligibility criteria for benefits, i.e if someone is taken off because of long term unemployment and forced into unpaid employment, does that really count?

But this has been the case for decades. Unless you're saying that there has been a major NEW recent initiative that wasn't there 12 months ago (remember, these are year-on-year comparisons) then you should accept that UK employment figures are still pretty good compared with most of the EU. Will they remain buoyant indefinitely? Of course not. But at the moment the UK economy is relatively healthy -- much to the chagrin of the Remain lobby. One gets the impression that nothing would delight them more than to see the UK slide into recession just so that they have the miserable pleasure of saying "told you so".

	Quote:	TobiasM
	Post Brexit referendum Britain looks pretty bleak to me and saying unemployment is down really doesn't mean anything coming from this current Tory government.

What's "bleak" is the attitude of some commentators, and the relentless predictions of economic disaster. Negativity is contagious, and I think you've been affected by this defeatism, and certainly not by the current reality of the economy. Just take a look at the financial markets for instance. My pension pot (range of normal funds) is about 13% higher today than it was just a few weeks ago, after the referendum.

I've no doubt there will be volatility and maybe even a recession in the short term. But Brexit was never about short term advantage. Quite the opposite. It's mid to long term benefits that I'm looking for. Absolute minimum 2 years, and more like 5-10 before we can really judge how things have changed.

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	Carlos R
	Vote for the unknown. Genius... I think I might have been less pissed off if the vote had been about 1 option vs another with frigging details.

What "details" were you expecting in advance of any negotiations with the EU?

The choice on the ballot paper was to Remain or to Leave. That's it. If the Leave vote won, then we would have a minimum 2 year negotiation with the EU. They are "the details".

[Don Molina]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The 1 country one vote is why the newly enlarged EU will fail, the votes need to be geared by the countries contributions to EU funds, that would be fair & Britain would not be leaving if it was the case. You have to think back to the formation of Confederation Helvetica, it was more about not paying taxes to anyone else, perhaps we can learn from history.

So, by extent, what you're proposing is that rich people's votes should count for more because they contribute more to the tax revenue.

Or to be accurate, that is the analogy to our current system of democracy, which should be failed by now with what you're arguing.