The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Currency situation is exactly where we were 3 years ago, prices did not fall, so no reason why they should rise today. This is a non story, I am amazed you have fallen for it hook line & sinker, your way too intelligent.

The currency situation will cause the cost of imported goods such as agricultural products etc to rise, but the real impact on the high street will only be seem towards the end of the year due to wholesale buying patterns.

Ireland exports about 40% of its agricultural goods to the UK and the Irish government is already planning for a major drop in exports due to the increased costs caused by the exchange rate.

[marton]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	What "details" were you expecting in advance of any negotiations with the EU? The choice on the ballot paper was to Remain or to Leave. That's it. If the Leave vote won, then we would have a minimum 2 year negotiation with the EU. They are "the details".

That is a wish list not a plan.

I was expecting that at least some of the leave campaigners promises would become reality.....

	Quote:	Jim2007
	You clearly have not got a clue about this! The negotiation will be with the Commission, not the 27 member states. When it comes to the approval point each member has the exactly the same rights to veto it. And it does not stop there because as an agreement with a third country it will need EU Parliament approval. And of course if it requires a treaty change, FMOP for example, it will also have to pass referenda in Denmark, Ireland and France. So ya good luck with that. Now at this point it is time to start hitting the ignore button, as all you are doing is repaint the same opinion over and over again without address the issues.

Thank you. You summarise BREXIT perfectly.

A positive simple consistent hope for a brighter future won out over a negative bitter powerfully-backed attempt to stay in a failing system that persists to this day.

[TobiasM]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	pleasure of saying "told you so".

Whats bleak is the stopping of funding for research projects between universities and scientific institutes (something that has already happened in Switzerland), businesses are bailing out (yes they are), the economy is tumbling, more shops are closing, the EU workforce will leave, leaving a deficit for low paid unwanted jobs and a hole in the tax that was generated by those millions of employees. The health care system will also lose employees. Scotland will have another referendum, that won't have a result like the last. And thats just the tip of the iceberg. Facts, facts, facts, compared to The leavers who are completely naive and I am still non the wiser as to what they thought might be achieved? Less immigration? Less EU legislation? Better UK fisheries?

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	...But at the moment the UK economy is relatively healthy -- much to the chagrin of the Remain lobby. One gets the impression that nothing would delight them more than to see the UK slide into recession just so that they have the miserable pleasure of saying "told you so".

Well as the UK hasn't actually left the EU yet or even triggered Article 50 why should the fundimentals have significantly changed in such a short period? At the moment the UK still benefits from EU membership. The decline from Brexit will kick in very slowly for the moment as companies delay or relocate investments and as others, particularly the financial sector slowly relocate to other countries.

The real pain will only come once the UK actually leaves.

	Quote:	TobiasM
	Whats bleak is the stopping of funding for research projects between universities and scientific institutes (something that has already happened in Switzerland), businesses are bailing out (yes they are), the economy is tumbling, more shops are closing, the EU workforce will leave, leaving a deficit for low paid unwanted jobs and a hole in the tax that was generated by those millions of employees. The health care system will also lose employees. Scotland will have another referendum, that won't have a result like the last. And thats just the tip of the iceberg. Facts, facts, facts, compared to The leavers who are completely naive and I am still non the wiser as to what they thought might be achieved? Less immigration? Less EU legislation? Better UK fisheries?

There's some grand predictions you have there. We should save it and come back to it in a year. I doubt any of it will be true.

So let's turn it around, had we stayed in Europe what would you have done to improve a failing situation (on many fronts)?

	Quote:	Carlos R
	Vote for the unknown. Genius... I think I might have been less pissed off if the vote had been about 1 option vs another with frigging details.

I wonder if American plantation owners used to use the same arguments on their slaves to stop them from leaving? "You don't know what's out there...".

	Quote:	Don Molina
	So, by extent, what you're proposing is that rich people's votes should count for more because they contribute more to the tax revenue. Or to be accurate, that is the analogy to our current system of democracy, which should be failed by now with what you're arguing.

Not rich people, rich countries. In the current system, Bulgaria contributes absolutely nothing to the EU, yet still have the same influence as the biggest contributors within the European Council. Can you not see how that may grate with the tax payers who are paying the most?

	Quote:	TobiasM
	Whats bleak is the stopping of funding for research projects between universities and scientific institutes (something that has already happened in Switzerland), businesses are bailing out (yes they are), the economy is tumbling, more shops are closing, the EU workforce will leave, leaving a deficit for low paid unwanted jobs and a hole in the tax that was generated by those millions of employees. The health care system will also lose employees. Scotland will have another referendum, that won't have a result like the last. And thats just the tip of the iceberg. Facts, facts, facts, compared to The leavers who are completely naive and I am still non the wiser as to what they thought might be achieved? Less immigration? Less EU legislation? Better UK fisheries?

Facts, facts, facts. Apart from the fact, you haven't given any facts.

[TobiasM]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	So let's turn it around, had we stayed in Europe what would you have done to improve a failing situation (on many fronts)?

Failing? The economy was just picking up again, personally I am not that bothered about the banks and big businesses and the economy but as these thing affect daily life, social services, welfare and society in general then I do care.

You think that because of Greece and Spain that the EU was failing? I see the economic sh*tstorm was caused by the banking industry and slack regulations in sovereign countries, not because the EU created it. Of course there are a lot of problems within the EU, but being out of it won't help the British situation. What I find most remarkable are the people on this forum, some of which really do rely on the open border for work policies of the EU, having voted for Brexit. I am sorry I still think that was the dumbest move in modern British history. Also we won't have much if any leverage in future policy making in the EU.

[curley]

	Quote:	st2lemans
	That's ALK, not AHV. Anyway, unless you are broke and own no property, you won't be getting anything once ALK runs out, so you won't be a social case. Tom

Is ALK Italian? It's ALV

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Not rich people, rich countries. In the current system, Bulgaria contributes absolutely nothing to the EU, yet still have the same influence as the biggest contributors within the European Council. Can you not see how that may grate with the tax payers who are paying the most?

But that is and has been part of the package - improve the lives of all citizens. It's no secret that the EU is one of the biggest wealth redistribution mechanism around.

[Kosti]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	So let's turn it around, had we stayed in Europe what would you have done to improve a failing situation (on many fronts)?

The EU is not "failing", as has been predicted monthly for about eight years now.

It faces a severe problem on two fronts, the Euro, and the refugee crisis.

The UK has the pound, and is not part of Schengen, so relatively immune to both.

Brexit was driven by backlash against legal immigration from Europe, combined with bombast about how the UK would then be able to dictate the terms, and stay in the common market. So far, no sign of that happening.

If 2-3 years from now the UK is out of the common market, do explain how that would improve things for England.

And please, dont start with the "let the negotiations begin" BS. Through a bunch of anonymous leaks since June 23rd, the positions are already staked out.
Not one single EU country wants to let the UK stay in the common market without continuing to accept FMoP.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	But that is and has been part of the package - improve the lives of all citizens.

I'll let the Greeks know.

	Quote:	TobiasM
	Failing? The economy was just picking up again, personally I am not that bothered about the banks and big businesses and the economy but as these thing affect daily life, social services, welfare and society in general then I do care. You think that because of Greece and Spain that the EU was failing? I see the economic sh*tstorm was caused by the banking industry and slack regulations in sovereign countries, not because the EU created it. Of course there are a lot of problems within the EU, but being out of it won't help the British situation. What I find most remarkable are the people on this forum, some of which really do rely on the open border for work policies of the EU, having voted for Brexit. I am sorry I still think that was the dumbest move in modern British history. Also we won't have much if any leverage in future policy making in the EU.

I'm not talking only because of the economy. That is influenced by more than Europe. I personally do not rely on open border policies for work. I have worked in countries without free movement of people and obtained the work relatively easily. I also know people who have obtained work in Switzerland under the same conditions. I'm of the opinion that if you want something you get it with enough work. But yes FMOP enables makes it easier.

Unfortunately I do not see FMOP as sustainable. People gravitate naturally towards higher income areas and not vice versa in the majority. This has generated social unrest.

As far as influence goes this was one of the deal breakers. Cameron went to the EU and said I want this and that and then I will win the referendum. they gave him nothing. That is a dumb EU and poor Cameron. There are people in the cabinet who can't even name the leaders of the EU. There is a total disconnect. The leaders of the EU don't get it and unfortunately people keep going on about the economic issues without addressing the general setups and workings of the EU.

that's what I mean by a failing EU

I do not see the solutions as being easy and both sides have strong opinions, that's why opinion is so divided and strong.

Someone else talks about leaks stating hard and fast positions - really? . If you're negotiating you try to influence sure but you don't reveal publicly all your cards. May is saying nothing about what she will demand, or i've missed it. That makes more sense to me.

[Reb77Br]

	Quote:	Kosti
	Brexit was driven by backlash against legal immigration from Europe, combined with bombast about how the UK would then be able to dictate the terms, and stay in the common market.

I still can't understand why 17 million people voted the same way as UKIP, Britain First, the EDL and the BNP. How many shared similar views on immigration and how many had more noble motives?

Boris Johnson "insisted immigration was not the reason Britain voted for Brexit, but instead the 'number one issue’ for voters had been control, ‘a sense that British democracy was being undermined by the EU system, and that we should restore to the people that vital power: to kick out their rulers at elections, and to choose new ones’" (source).


Yet we all know that the Leave campaign were not just endlessly repeating the "take back control" mantra but also stressing the immigration issue.

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	I still can't understand why 17 million people voted the same way as UKIP, Britain First, the EDL and the BNP. How many shared similar views on immigration and how many had more noble motives? Boris Johnson "insisted immigration was not the reason Britain voted for Brexit, but instead the 'number one issue’ for voters had been control, ‘a sense that British democracy was being undermined by the EU system, and that we should restore to the people that vital power: to kick out their rulers at elections, and to choose new ones’" (source).

You forget. BoJo lies and talks bollocks.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Well as the UK hasn't actually left the EU yet or even triggered Article 50 why should the fundimentals have significantly changed in such a short period? At the moment the UK still benefits from EU membership. The decline from Brexit will kick in very slowly for the moment as companies delay or relocate investments and as others, particularly the financial sector slowly relocate to other countries. The real pain will only come once the UK actually leaves.

Two years to plan and move a company is rather little, even more so as useful destinations (including office space) are limited(I'm thinking of the financials here), better use all the time you've been given. The real pain may well start before article 50 is invoked unless the decision is taken soon to remain in EEA (which of course means FMOP).

	Quote:
	You forget. BoJo lies and talks bollocks.

That seems to not apply to this case. One can easily find numerous articles where he speaks pro immigration.

[Kosti]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	I still can't understand why 17 million people voted the same way as UKIP, Britain First, the EDL and the BNP. How many shared similar views on immigration and how many had more noble motives? Boris Johnson "insisted immigration was not the reason Britain voted for Brexit, but instead the 'number one issue’ for voters had been control, ‘a sense that British democracy was being undermined by the EU system, and that we should restore to the people that vital power: to kick out their rulers at elections, and to choose new ones’" (source). Yet we all know that the Leave campaign were not just endlessly repeating the "take back control" mantra but also stressing the immigration issue.

I dont think Brexit can be explained as people voting with the far right.
Some part of a country, typically 35-40pc will always vote for far right measures, no matter how regressive they are, but that doesnt explain the 52pc for Leave.

The common market plus fmop has always been a deal.
More opportunity for trade and innovation in return for spreading the benefits from this across Europe.

The question is, who benefitted from this deal in the UK. London certainly did. But large parts of England did not. They saw more immigration.
But thanks to cutbacks by the Tories for social services and public works, no increase in the purported benefits of being in the common market.

This resulted in the swing to 52%.

Interesting article which reports that areas which experienced a significant increase in the proportion of migrants voted for Brexit, even though in absolute numbers the amount of migrants remained low compared to London.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...eased-by-near/

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	I still can't understand why 17 million people voted the same way as UKIP, Britain First, the EDL and the BNP. How many shared similar views on immigration and how many had more noble motives?

Jeremy Corbyn shares many of the same views as Stalin. Does that mean everyone that votes for him is a slobbering commie?

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Jeremy Corbyn shares many of the same views as Stalin. Does that mean everyone the votes for him is a slobbering commie?

No it means they support splitting the Labour party

[Carlos R]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I wonder if American plantation owners used to use the same arguments on their slaves to stop them from leaving? "You don't know what's out there...".

Sorry Loz but that's a f**kwit statement. Be honest, you know it. Being part of the EU was not in any way, shape or form akin to slavery.

The Brexit ringleaders - Farage, Gove and Johnson - to a man came out the morning after and basically "readjusted" their promises in their first interviews.

As for those who say that it hasn't had any effect - say that to my in-laws who've just seen their pensions drop significantly with the interest rate drop and the value of what they do have become even more worthless when they come to visit in CH due to the currency drop. And no, they didn't vote leave.

	Quote:	Kosti
	The question is, who benefitted from this deal in the UK. London certainly did. But large parts of England did not. They saw more immigration. But thanks to cutbacks by the Tories for social services and public works, no increase in the purported benefits of being in the common market.

More immigration? What you mean the 184,000 that came from EU countries in 2015, with the 180,000 from other countries?

That's 0.3% of the UK's population coming from the EU from freedom of movement. They must be taking 3-4 jobs or more each to deny those hard working whites who rightfully belong in the UK...

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/stat.../#create-graph