The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[rainer_d]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	The UK was one of the two (+Germany) big givers to Europe.

Here are the numbers for 2014:

http://www.bpb.de/nachschlagen/zahle...ettoempfaenger

It's "just" 5 billion.
Nothing to sneeze at, but also not earth-shattering.

Britain got some rebates, after all ("I want my money back") ;-)

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	The leaders of the EU don't get it and unfortunately people keep going on about the economic issues without addressing the general setups and workings of the EU.

Of course the EU leaders get it, the majority of voters in the last EU parliament voted parties that support closer integration, so Junker leads the Commission! Opinion polls after the UK vote shows more support not less for the EU among it's citizens and that will be taken into account too. Are there problems? yes absolutely, will they find solutions most likely yes, but they will be solutions based on a closer integration not less, because that is their objective.

The only one that really don't get it is the UK - they keep demanding some kind of free trade association while the other members are working on an integrated Europe. No one should be surprised that Cameron got little or nothing from them since what he was asking for in no way advanced the causes of the other 26.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	That seems to not apply to this case. One can easily find numerous articles where he speaks pro immigration.

The statement wasn't about his own opinion but about what he believed (or said he believed) was the reason for the exit vote. If you listened to any TV or radio vox pop, the one word you heard continually repeated was "immigration". The only people that talked sovereignty were (almost exclusively) politicians.

Bojo can say what he wants. You just had to watch and listen to realise what was really driving people.

The ultimate irony of course is that the exit areas mostly had the lowest levels of EU immigration.

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	There's some grand predictions you have there. We should save it and come back to it in a year. I doubt any of it will be true. So let's turn it around, had we stayed in Europe what would you have done to improve a failing situation (on many fronts)?

"had we stayed in Europe what would you have done to improve a failing situation" But we are not staying

And how will leaving improve a failing EU situation (assuming it is failing)

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	But that is and has been part of the package - improve the lives of all citizens. It's no secret that the EU is one of the biggest wealth redistribution mechanism around.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I'll let the Greeks know.

Well Greece received over 5 billion from the EU in 2014 so I assume they already know?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	The ultimate irony of course is that the exit areas mostly had the lowest levels of EU immigration.

No surprise, it's the same here.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Of course the EU leaders get it, the majority of voters in the last EU parliament voted parties that support closer integration, so Junker leads the Commission! Opinion polls after the UK vote shows more support not less for the EU among it's citizens and that will be taken into account too. Are there problems? yes absolutely, will they find solutions most likely yes, but they will be solutions based on a closer integration not less, because that is their objective. The only one that really don't get it is the UK - they keep demanding some kind of free trade association while the other members are working on an integrated Europe. No one should be surprised that Cameron got little or nothing from them since what he was asking for in no way advanced the causes of the other 26.

As a matter of interest where are you from? Helps me understand your opinion a bit more. Thanks.

Opinion polls showed that remain would win before the result and that the Tory government wouldn't be a majority in 2015. They have lost their way a bit.

Because the UK interest in the eyes of the majority doesn't match the EU interest is another reason why they left.

It was a massive concern about Juncker and this was not addressed in the referendum. Does the EU want the UK in their entity? why should the UK bend over and take what Juncker says?

	Quote:	marton
	And how will leaving improve a failing EU situation (assuming it is failing)

It's a statement and a massive one at the that. The world and it's mother told them not to do it, but they said we do it anyway.

So now it's a chance for both sides. They couldn't work it out as a partnership, so they have to do it as individual entities in a negotiation situation.

If they want to succeed they have to look at the issues (FMOP and political integration) and see what they are going to do about them. They can choose to do nothing and stay as they are, but there are consequences obviously.

The UK does come from a powerful position (look at sports they are second best in the world behind only the US and there's no reason why they can't repeat that in other walks of life without being told what to do by people who don't have their best interests at heart).

The UK and Europe are culturally very different (they speak a different language for a start), so they have to overcome all this. But of course there are similarities and differences for all nations.

But they have now been told, it doesn't work as it is(it's built up over years) so do something about it. But like I say it's a chance and that's always good, they can evaluate the what's and why's and make it better for everyone.

Maybe they come back together (the EU would take that immediately), you never know.

And one for the economic statistics, the consumer spending was predicted to decrease in July by the economic experts if BREXIT came. It actually rose ;-)

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Of course the EU leaders get it, the majority of voters in the last EU parliament voted parties that support closer integration, so Junker leads the Commission! Opinion polls after the UK vote shows more support not less for the EU among it's citizens and that will be taken into account too. Are there problems? yes absolutely, will they find solutions most likely yes, but they will be solutions based on a closer integration not less, because that is their objective. The only one that really don't get it is the UK - they keep demanding some kind of free trade association while the other members are working on an integrated Europe. No one should be surprised that Cameron got little or nothing from them since what he was asking for in no way advanced the causes of the other 26.

Not true. European divisions ‘hardening’, warns German think tank.

Bertelsmann Foundation Survey

How can the EU - which continues to allow divisions across Europe, has been criticized of years for not addressing issues/inequality - continue to succeed? Years of austerity hasn't worked: long-term unemployment and child poverty increasing in Southern European countries. In Spain child poverty has risen again 23% compared to only 3.6% in Finland. One in five children in Greece is now affected by poverty.

Martin Schulz said the EU must react urgently to address the widening justice gap. Ha! He also called out at the time of Brexit and warned Europe to address the issues causing Britain to leave. No one listened to him then, will they listen now..

Cameron did very well in 2014/15 battling the EU and fighting for reform and a looser union, but had problems with Juncker from the get go, as he knew he would. Juncker should not be head of the secretive, powerful EC -- without question, he should have resigned after Brexit.. his failure to acknowledge much needed reform and deal with the lack of trilogue transparency will continue to have a significant & negative impact on EU's future.

Juncker will not be resigning his position in the EC now until 2019.

	Quote:
	Not true. European divisions ‘hardening’, warns German think tank. Bertelsmann Foundation Survey

...except that's a pure opinion piece not a poll. So proves nothing.

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	It's a statement and a massive one at the that. The world and it's mother told them not to do it, but they said we do it anyway. So now it's a chance for both sides. They couldn't work it out as a partnership, so they have to do it as individual entities in a negotiation situation. If they want to succeed they have to look at the issues (FMOP and political integration) and see what they are going to do about them. They can choose to do nothing and stay as they are, but there are consequences obviously. The UK does come from a powerful position (look at sports they are second best in the world behind only the US and there's no reason why they can't repeat that in other walks of life without being told what to do by people who don't have their best interests at heart). The UK and Europe are culturally very different (they speak a different language for a start), so they have to overcome all this. But of course there are similarities and differences for all nations. But they have now been told, it doesn't work as it is(it's built up over years) so do something about it. But like I say it's a chance and that's always good, they can evaluate the what's and why's and make it better for everyone. Maybe they come back together (the EU would take that immediately), you never know. And one for the economic statistics, the consumer spending was predicted to decrease in July by the economic experts if BREXIT came. It actually rose ;-)

"the consumer spending was predicted to decrease in July by the economic experts if BREXIT came. It actually rose" Surprising and hopefully positive news.
Was it a sign of increased consumer confidence or foreign tourists buying with cheap £ or people buying non food goods before prices rise? Only time will tell!

	Quote:
	"the consumer spending was predicted to decrease in July by the economic experts if BREXIT came. It actually rose" Surprising and hopefully positive news. Was it a sign of increased consumer confidence or foreign tourists buying with cheap £ or people buying non food goods before prices rise? Only time will tell!

Think it was mostly my OH

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	And one for the economic statistics, the consumer spending was predicted to decrease in July by the economic experts if BREXIT came. It actually rose ;-)

Says who?

The Office for National Statistics' most recent numbers are for 1Q2016.

	Quote:
	"the consumer spending was predicted to decrease in July by the economic experts if BREXIT came. It actually rose" Surprising and hopefully positive news. Was it a sign of increased consumer confidence or foreign tourists buying with cheap £ or people buying non food goods before prices rise? Only time will tell!

Actually (and if it happened at all) could also be locals buying stuff before the post- £ devaluation prices increase.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Says who? The Office for National Statistics' most recent numbers are for 1Q2016.

Looks like credit card companies:


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUSKCN10I129

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Says who? The Office for National Statistics' most recent numbers are for 1Q2016.

it was on the BBC News last night 1.4%

	Quote:
	...except that's a pure opinion piece not a poll. So proves nothing.

Opinion proves nothing? Backed up by research and facts, or did they just pull this out of thin air?

If it proves nothing, then why has the same concerns about divisions and lack of unity across the EU been a focus for many years now.

Manuel Barroso former president EC heeded the warnings and was open to expressing his concern, unlike Juncker.

In 2014, before the Brexit debate even began there were alarm bells ringing:

“This is a major red light” for Europe, said Jean-Paul Fitoussi, a professor of economics at the Institut d’Études Politiques de Paris. “We need to change the direction of policy to avoid a situation with potentially worrisome consequences for society and politics.” NY Times

"In the debate on the future of Europe, new divisions, groups and fault lines are likely to emerge that will reveal differences not just between countries but within countries and between ideologies, too." The Guardian

And before the Brexit referendum on the 10th of June, the FT wrote about:

"Europe divided: 7 charts on deep economic splits" Financial Times

@ Swisstree (IE is refusing to quote your post)

You are trying to use opinion pieces to disprove opinion poll results which doesn't work.

Whatever the opinion of the author of that Bertlesmann piece might be, it does nothing to challenge the opinion poll results referred to by Jim2007. The only referenced work in this is a statistical survey, not an opinion poll. So yes, in that context it proves nothing relevant to the point made by Jim2007.

To remind you, Jim2007 wrote

	Quote:
	Opinion polls after the UK vote shows more support not less for the EU among it's citizens

Unless you can find polls showing otherwise this still stands.

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	It's a statement and a massive one at the that. The world and it's mother told them not to do it, but they said we do it anyway. So now it's a chance for both sides. They couldn't work it out as a partnership, so they have to do it as individual entities in a negotiation situation. If they want to succeed they have to look at the issues (FMOP and political integration) and see what they are going to do about them. They can choose to do nothing and stay as they are, but there are consequences obviously. The UK does come from a powerful position (look at sports they are second best in the world behind only the US and there's no reason why they can't repeat that in other walks of life without being told what to do by people who don't have their best interests at heart). The UK and Europe are culturally very different (they speak a different language for a start), so they have to overcome all this. But of course there are similarities and differences for all nations. But they have now been told, it doesn't work as it is(it's built up over years) so do something about it. But like I say it's a chance and that's always good, they can evaluate the what's and why's and make it better for everyone. Maybe they come back together (the EU would take that immediately), you never know. And one for the economic statistics, the consumer spending was predicted to decrease in July by the economic experts if BREXIT came. It actually rose ;-)

"They couldn't work it out as a partnership, so they have to do it as individual entities in a negotiation situation." Problem is that you started to believe your own rhetoric!
There is no such thing as a single "EU" to negotiate with; there is no all powerful central EU decision maker. There is no EU slave driver.

For a trade deal with the EU so UK will have to get agreement from each and everyone of the 27 EU countries.

UK is a big export market for German cars but if any single country like Croatia or Italy or Luxembourg votes against any proposed deal then that is it, game over. Tough luck Germany!
I expect Luxembourg is already looking at the new financial services possibilities after Brexit!

There was a fine example last April when the "EU" tried to agree a trade deal with the Ukraine.
Everything was going fine until just one country (Netherlands) voted against it and so blew the whole idea out of the water.
It just needs one negative vote.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	Opinion proves nothing? Backed up by research and facts, or did they just pull this out of thin air?

The facts are very simple. In the last EU parliamentary elections, parties supporting a more integrated EU ran on the basis that Junker would be appointed as Commission President should they win, they did and he was appointed and has the mandate to continue with a more integrated EU. That is a fact, not an opinion, a statistic or a poll.