The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	marton
	"They couldn't work it out as a partnership, so they have to do it as individual entities in a negotiation situation." Problem is that you started to believe your own rhetoric! There is no such thing as a single "EU" to negotiate with; there is no all powerful central EU decision maker. There is no EU slave driver. For a trade deal with the EU so UK will have to get agreement from each and everyone of the 27 EU countries. UK is a big export market for German cars but if any single country like Croatia or Italy or Luxembourg votes against any proposed deal then that is it, game over. Tough luck Germany! I expect Luxembourg is already looking at the new financial services possibilities after Brexit! There was a fine example last April when the "EU" tried to agree a trade deal with the Ukraine. Everything was going fine until just one country (Netherlands) voted against it and so blew the whole idea out of the water. It just needs one negative vote.

Then how can Europe negotiate any trade deal? let alone one with the UK? The way you state it, it can't function and needs re-thinking, which it should do now on several fronts.

Taken with a pinch of salt, but the predicted collapse has not happened:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/..._id=sf33801716

When you read it it's mixed news.

Also even though the finger will be pointed at BREXIT, it will never be the sole reason for any events that happen.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Then how can Europe negotiate any trade deal? let alone one with the UK? The way you state it, it can't function and needs re-thinking, which it should do now on several fronts.

FMOP requires each national parliaments "Ok" (at least it did in the case of the treaties with Switzerland). I think trade treaties per se don't, but EEA access requires FMOP so that does.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Then how can Europe negotiate any trade deal? let alone one with the UK? The way you state it, it can't function and needs re-thinking, which it should do now on several fronts.

Please keep up:

Michel Barnier Appointed by European Commission as Chief Brexit Negotiator

Or as the Telegraph put it:

EU appoints former French minister who blames Britain for losing his job to lead Brexit negotiations

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	FMOP requires each national parliaments "Ok" (at least it did in the case of the treaties with Switzerland). I think trade treaties per se don't, but EEA access requires FMOP so that does.

In addition to referenda in Ireland, Denmark and possibly France. I understand the Irish constitution to be the most restrictive in that every change to the treaty without exception must be approved by the people, the parliament having no role in the approval decision.

[Don Molina]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I wonder if American plantation owners used to use the same arguments on their slaves to stop them from leaving? "You don't know what's out there...". Not rich people, rich countries. In the current system, Bulgaria contributes absolutely nothing to the EU, yet still have the same influence as the biggest contributors within the European Council. Can you not see how that may grate with the tax payers who are paying the most?

First analogy is sensationalist, out of touch with reality, and obviously exaggerating for effect. Nice going!

Also, why is it difficult to equate countries to citizens?
Again, the argument is basically "no contribution = no vote".
Which is insane, because entities do not vote equally because they contribute equally. They vote equally because they are respected as equals on the principle of isonomy.

Which is kind of a major thing in democracy.


Funny how supporters of BREXIT accuse the EU of being undemocratic and ask undemocratic measures at the same time

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I'll let the Greeks know.

If you really believe that the Greeks's problems come in any way from the EU, you have zero idea about Greece and its plights. The Greeks have ONLY themselves to blame for most (if not all) of what is happening and every election just solidifies the fact.
The EU (and the rest) might not be totally helpful, but Greece without the EU would be in a hugely worse position over the last 30 years.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Please keep up: Michel Barnier Appointed by European Commission as Chief Brexit Negotiator Or as the Telegraph put it: EU appoints former French minister who blames Britain for losing his job to lead Brexit negotiations

you're funny sometimes what's that got to do with the price of fish? His statement was you have to get all 27 countries to agree. Which doesn't seem to be possible. Are you now saying there's only one to agree with? A bit of consistency from your side of the table would be appreciated.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

Opel to cut jobs due to Brexit so Germany are beginning to feel the effects too.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37133037

What happens when the EU's biggest contributor can't contribute any more.

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	FMOP requires each national parliaments "Ok" (at least it did in the case of the treaties with Switzerland). I think trade treaties per se don't, but EEA access requires FMOP so that does.

"I think trade treaties per se don't" Free trade agreements do require approval by every EU country, the FTA planned with Ukraine was sunk when one country (Netherlands) voted "no!

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Taken with a pinch of salt, but the predicted collapse has not happened: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/..._id=sf33801716 When you read it it's mixed news. Also even though the finger will be pointed at BREXIT, it will never be the sole reason for any events that happen.

Early days, currently UK is still benefiting from EU/single market membership!

[marton]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	Then how can Europe negotiate any trade deal? let alone one with the UK? The way you state it, it can't function and needs re-thinking, which it should do now on several fronts.

That is the problem; now you got the point

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Don Molina
	If you really believe that the Greeks's problems come in any way from the EU, you have zero idea about Greece and its plights. The Greeks have ONLY themselves to blame for most (if not all) of what is happening and every election just solidifies the fact. The EU (and the rest) might not be totally helpful, but Greece without the EU would be in a hugely worse position over the last 30 years.

I think the Euro has had a huge effect on the Greece, previously the Drachma would have just halved in value every 5-8 years, allowing for continual pay rises.

	Quote:	marton
	"I think trade treaties per se don't" Free trade agreements do require approval by every EU country, the FTA planned with Ukraine was sunk when one country (Netherlands) voted "no!

TBH a trade agreement is not too big deal for Britain as the currency has fallen more than the tariffs that will apply, so British companies can sell to the EU at the same prices in Euros as before. The issue is EU countries will have to absorb a 20-25% loss to still sell in Britain at the same prices in £. Goods are priced in a country at the price the market will bear, nothing to do with costs or exchange rates. CH being a prime example of that.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I think the Euro has had a huge effect on the Greece, previously the Drachma would have just halved in value every 5-8 years, allowing for continual pay rises. TBH a trade agreement is not too big deal for Britain as the currency has fallen more than the tariffs that will apply, so British companies can sell to the EU at the same prices in Euros as before. The issue is EU countries will have to absorb a 20-25% loss to still sell in Britain at the same prices in £. Goods are priced in a country at the price the market will bear, nothing to do with costs or exchange rates. CH being a prime example of that.

"I think the Euro has had a huge effect on the Greece, previously the Drachma would have just halved in value every 5-8 years, allowing for continual pay rises." True but they used their euro membership to borrow huge amounts of money at low interest rates and then failed to use the money wisely.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Opel to cut jobs due to Brexit so Germany are beginning to feel the effects too. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37133037 What happens when the EU's biggest contributor can't contribute any more.

Seems pretty counter intuitive to me.

If people in the uk are afraid the pound will devalue and tariffs will make imports more expensive, then surely they should be queuing to buy German cars now they still can.

If on the other hand they believe the Euro is about to collapse or sterling to rally , they may have a point in biding their time before going for the big kill.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	If people in the uk are afraid the pound will devalue and tariffs will make imports more expensive, then surely they should be queuing to buy German cars now they still can.

Yes but household debt has been rising since about Jan 2015 and plus an expected jump in the cost of living tends to make people put off discretionary purchase.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I think the Euro has had a huge effect on the Greece, previously the Drachma would have just halved in value every 5-8 years, allowing for continual pay rises.

They could have been using monopoly money for all the difference it made, they were always going to come unstuck. The recession was like the tide going out - you get to see who has been swimming without their trunks!

For me the classic example is how academic book publishers are paid - their not paid for the number of books supplied, nor even for the number of students attending courses, no they are actually paid for the number of students registered by the university. Note I used the word 'by', that is because the Universities are still counting people who dropped years ago not just recent ones. These same figures are then used for university funding, catering services etc.... Every where you look there is some kind of game being played.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The issue is EU countries will have to absorb a 20-25% loss to still sell in Britain at the same prices in £. Goods are priced in a country at the price the market will bear, nothing to do with costs or exchange rates.

Which in reality means that UK consumers will be forced to pay more for the fundamentals such as food and fore go some goods altogether. It is unlikely that many suppliers will be in a position to carry a 20-25% loss on sales over the long run, more likely is that they will cut back on production or seek alternative markets.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Zurichowl
	you're funny sometimes what's that got to do with the price of fish? His statement was you have to get all 27 countries to agree. Which doesn't seem to be possible. Are you now saying there's only one to agree with? A bit of consistency from your side of the table would be appreciated.

The point is that they have already appointed their negotiator and they have more experience of trade negotiations than the UK at this stage. This was in response to your question as to how they would negotiate. The Commission is response for the negotiation stage on the EU side and they have already have had several meetings with the member states to get a feel for what will fly.

We already know:
- Spain expects movement on Gibraltar
- Ireland will not accept an international border on the island of Ireland
- Norway will veto a UK membership of EFTA
- Neither France nor Denmark want to agree to anything that would require a referendum

We can expect that the commission's main objective will be to preserve the union and from that point of view I can't see much more that WTO rules coming out of any agreement unless the UK is willing to be very flexible. I had thought EFTA/EEA might having been an option, but with Norway's stance that seems unlikely now.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	They could have been using monopoly money for all the difference it made, they were always going to come unstuck. The recession was like the tide going out - you get to see who has been swimming without their trunks! For me the classic example is how academic book publishers are paid - their not paid for the number of books supplied, nor even for the number of students attending courses, no they are actually paid for the number of students registered by the university. Note I used the word 'by', that is because the Universities are still counting people who dropped years ago not just recent ones. These same figures are then used for university funding, catering services etc.... Every where you look there is some kind of game being played. Which in reality means that UK consumers will be forced to pay more for the fundamentals such as food and fore go some goods altogether. It is unlikely that many suppliers will be in a position to carry a 20-25% loss on sales over the long run, more likely is that they will cut back on production or seek alternative markets.

Some inflation would be a good thing, interest rates would rise & the £ would strengthen & debt would get inflated away.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	"I think trade treaties per se don't" Free trade agreements do require approval by every EU country, the FTA planned with Ukraine was sunk when one country (Netherlands) voted "no!

You're of course right about the dutch veto. Yet that can't be the whole story as no national OK was required for CH except for FMOP.

	Quote:	amogles
	Seems pretty counter intuitive to me. If people in the uk are afraid the pound will devalue and tariffs will make imports more expensive, then surely they should be queuing to buy German cars now they still can. If on the other hand they believe the Euro is about to collapse or sterling to rally , they may have a point in biding their time before going for the big kill.

If people are uncertain whether they're gonna have a job in the future they'll postpone buying even if it's cheaper today than tomorrow.

[fatmanfilms]

If Britons success at the Olympic games is anything to go on, then Britain will do fine outside the EU, as well as France & Germany combined.

It just goes to show what happens on a level playing field.........