The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[CorsebouTheReturn]

	Quote:	marton
	"like children being forced to do something unwillingly." but they are? Just because the vote is over does not mean they change their views and opinions..

What was the point to even participate in a democratic referendum if it's to reject it entirely because the outcome was not the intended one?

So it's a bit like signing a contract and then refusing to honor it because it's against your "views and opinions".

It does feel a bit strange and obvious to say this, the majority of British people have voted for a specific outcome democratically. Focus on influencing the rest rather than dwelling on the fact that it was against your views and opinions. Looks like old stubborn close minded behavior!

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	marton
	"Machinery's Handbook" Now you are doing me, Phos, yourself and everyone else a disservice "mix or confuse my posts and arguments" You seem to be the only one confused; everybody else knew who made those comments

I'll give you this, I may well be confused. I suspect that I am not alone in that. I hope that I am at least expressing my confusions clearly enough that someone can point them out to me. This does not seem to be your aim.

The Machinery's Handbook point was as valid as your "I do not feel constrained" response.

The basic form is "Here is an error, I construe someone to be making that error in spite of what they wrote, therefore they are wrong."

[CorsebouTheReturn]

	Quote:	marton
	"Let's all focus on making that an opportunity for everyone" Very jingoistic! The reality is that you, me and 99.999% of the population will have zero influence and control over what happens next. "Calling racists the voters" Cherry picking, this is not any sort of majority view; just propaganda to try and close down the ongoing debate.

True, its so positive I though I was a sect leader when saying that.
We do have control on how we are interacting with each others and avoid poising relationships of Europea...erm people geographically near European zone. That's what we can do!
And when I read the comments on stupid people magazines like 20minutes or Dailymail recently, this attitude is well needed!

I agree about cherry picking, surely the media have spread a lot of garbage, and racist claims were only part of the attacks. There was also false economical claims, various fear mongers, a bit of fantasy, a few personal attacks, some claims about lower intelligence...
In fact if I had to be accurate and discuss about all what was said in media and out of people's mouths then I'd still be talking about it for an hour.

All for nothing because it's voted, end of talks and focus on current relations and on what's next.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	Phos
	I agree with that. I actually fault Cameron for the whole thing. He proposed it as a choice for the country. Throughout his career, he has spoken out about EU encroachment. But then he turns around and behaves like a celebrity spokesman. I think the responsibility of his role was to ensure that he can provide the proper analysis and information for everybody to make an informed decision. But instead, he resorted to disinformation, and the Brexiters responded in kind. What surprised me was how easily Cameron sold out, and that is in fact what happened. For me, this referendum was all about whether or not to sell out. All the threats were about economic propositions. I actually think there are higher values than cash flow. So when people voted despite being told they would be economically hurt, I admired it. It demonstrated integrity and character to choose principles over cash flow. I think some people have trouble understanding that.

Cameron gambled his political career on the referendum. It was a crowd pleaser which won him the election. Short term gain for long term pain. He had to follow through with it and when all his nightmares came true his position as PM became untenable.

I think you have the "economically hurt" view directed at the wrong side of voters. Brexiters were under the impression that the enormous volume of cash they saw as being swallowed up by the "faceless bureaucrats" as returning to the coffers of the UK government (remember the "we'll save 350 mill a week which will go to our NHS!"?).

Remainers knew that the cash would still be going to the EU, as normal, but maybe they had the foresight to see that an exit wouldn't make the savings to the economy which was believed by the Leave voters.

[22 yards]

	Quote:	Phos
	You know when you guys get personal, I smell blood and it indicates to me you don't have much of a point to defend. I do dig in if you persist at it. Now see if you are capabile of having an honest debate without attacking people personally. Do your job properly MOD!

Is MOD your newest epithet? I feel wounded. Personally, I prefer your word "capabile", a nice portmanteau of capable and bile.

To do my job properly I would have to ban you for trolling. Would you like me to do that?

[CorsebouTheReturn]

	Quote:	22 yards
	Is MOD your newest epithet? I feel wounded. Personally, I prefer your word "capabile", a nice portmanteau of capable and bile. To do my job properly I would have to ban you for trolling. Would you like me to do that?

Let's all vote about banning him!
And if the outcome is against your opinion or views, then do as you please.

[Phos]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	Cameron gambled his political career on the referendum. It was a crowd pleaser which won him the election. Short term gain for long term pain. He had to follow through with it and when all his nightmares came true his position as PM became untenable. I think you have the "economically hurt" view directed at the wrong side of voters. Brexiters were under the impression that the enormous volume of cash they saw as being swallowed up by the "faceless bureaucrats" as returning to the coffers of the UK government (remember the "we'll save 350 mill a week which will go to our NHS!"?). Remainers knew that the cash would still be going to the EU, as normal, but maybe they had the foresight to see that an exit wouldn't make the savings to the economy which was believed by the Leave voters.

The assumption there is that people voted for a short term economic proposition, as the campaigns focused on such economics. I don't believe that is necessarily true. I think many people voted according to what they believed to be according to their conscience and convictions. I do believe they took this vote earnestly and seriously.

I watched all the debates, and the audience participation. What it really looked like was the "experts" didn't really know what they were talking about, were not being truthful, and were just propagating according to their paid roles. They were being stumped by questions, and you can clearly see them evade. The problem here was a significant credibility deficit. So people made their own minds about it.

I don't think everyone is ruled by promises of short term and intermediate cash flow.

[22 yards]

	Quote:	Phos
	The assumption there is that people voted for a short term economic proposition, as the campaigns focused on such economics. I don't believe that is necessarily true. I think many people voted according to what they believed to be according to their conscience and convictions. I do believe they took this vote earnestly and seriously. I watched all the debates, and the audience participation. What it really looked like was the "experts" didn't really know what they were talking about, were not being truthful, and were just propagating according to their paid roles. They were being stumped by questions, and you can clearly see them evade. The problem here was a significant credibility deficit. So people made their own minds about it. I don't think everyone is ruled by promises of short term and intermediate cash flow.

The £350 million per week was not a short-term carrot, it was supposedly the permanent, ongoing cost of EU membership. But actually, it was just a lie, and one that the Brexit side continued to propagate even after it was proven to be a lie.

[Phos]

	Quote:	22 yards
	Is MOD your newest epithet? I feel wounded. Personally, I prefer your word "capabile", a nice portmanteau of capable and bile. To do my job properly I would have to ban you for trolling. Would you like me to do that?

That is a pathetic threat. But hang on a while, as I have more interesting things to ask and discuss with adults.

[22 yards]

	Quote:	Phos
	That is a pathetic threat. But hang on a while, as I have more interesting things to ask and discuss with adults.

From Phos, who is above personal attacks.

You're laughable.

[Phos]

	Quote:	22 yards
	The £350 million per week was not a short-term carrot, it was supposedly the permanent, ongoing cost of EU membership. But actually, it was just a lie, and one that the Brexit side continued to propagate even after it was proven to be a lie.

The £350 million proposition did not even come from people who can decide what to do with it. It was not even in the remit of Farage, Johnson nor anyone on that side. That was basically a rebuttal to fearmongering and lies that the NHS would collapse with Brexit.

The claim here is that voters believed in that. I don't think it could be proven that voters voted for Brexit for that £350 million.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	Phos
	The assumption there is that people voted for a short term economic proposition, as the campaigns focused on such economics. I don't believe that is necessarily true. I think many people voted according to what they believed to be according to their conscience and convictions. I do believe they took this vote earnestly and seriously.

No, it was one of the cornerstones of the Leave campaign that the 350 mill a week we give to the EU would remain in the UK and the NHS was earmarked as a target for this cash injection, and that was clearly bullet pointed on much of their campaigning. It was plastered on the side of the battle bus so it was pretty much in-your-face stuff.

True that most people voted in earnest. Definitely. However, my wrangle is with the information they had to come to that earnest decision.

	Quote:	Phos
	I watched all the debates, and the audience participation. What it really looked like was the "experts" didn't really know what they were talking about, were not being truthful, and were just propagating according to their paid roles. They were being stumped by questions, and you can clearly see them evade. The problem here was a significant credibility deficit. So people made their own minds about it. I don't think everyone is ruled by promises of short term and intermediate cash flow.

Yep. Smoke and mirrors. As soon as either side got pressed for facts and figures by audience participation it all went tits up. Nobody wanted to stand by the information they were feeding out. Fine to have leaflets produced and journalists quoting from "a source" but nobody wanted their name attached to that "source".

Again, it wasn't touted as short-term cashflow. The savings were meant to be permanent and plentiful. No more waiting for Mrs Riley's hip operation and old Mr Thomas gets his cataracts sorted out on 24th June.

	Quote:	Phos
	The £350 million proposition did not even come from people who can decide what to do with it. It was not even in the remit of Farage, Johnson nor anyone on that side. That was basically a rebuttal to fearmongering and lies that the NHS would collapse with Brexit.

That was never a claim by either side.

[Phos]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	That was never a claim by either side.

I recall a few from doctors and politicians. But yes, I see how the NHS threat was exploited and mishandled. Clearly there was a win at any cost approach to campaigning from both sides.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	The £350 million proposition did not even come from people who can decide what to do with it. It was not even in the remit of Farage, Johnson nor anyone on that side. That was basically a rebuttal to fearmongering and lies that the NHS would collapse with Brexit. The claim here is that voters believed in that. I don't think it could be proven that voters voted for Brexit for that £350 million.

All the campaign promises by the Leave campaigners were made by people who did not have any remit deliver them. Presumably they made these promises with the expectation that voters would believe them and vote accordingly?

• Let’s give our NHS the £350m the EU takes every week
• A vote for leave will be a vote to cut immigration
• Five million more migrants could enter Britain by 2030 if Turkey and four other applicant countries join the EU
• Article 50 will be triggered immediately

From the New Statesman "Leave camp promised us all a unicorn and now claim they merely hinted at the possibility of a pony."

The leave website was cleared the day after the Referendum but thanks to web archive here we can still read the Leave campaign manifesto

• We stop handing over £350 million a week to Brussels
• We take back control of our borders and can kick out violent criminals
• We take back the power to kick out the people who make our laws
• We decide what we spend our own money on
• We free our businesses from damaging EU laws and regulations
• We take back the power to make our own trade deals
• We have better relations with our European friends
• We regain our influence in the wider world and become a truly global nation once again

[CorsebouTheReturn]

	Quote:	marton
	From the New Statesman "Leave camp promised us all a unicorn and now claim they merely hinted at the possibility of a pony." The leave website was cleared the day after the Referendum but thanks to web archive here we can still read the Leave campaign manifesto We stop handing over £350 million a week to Brussels We take back control of our borders and can kick out violent criminals We take back the power to kick out the people who make our laws We decide what we spend our own money on We free our businesses from damaging EU laws and regulations We take back the power to make our own trade deals We have better relations with our European friends We regain our influence in the wider world and become a truly global nation once again

Then British people should do anything so the above list happens.
Surely, if they are sitting quietly until politicians are moving then yeah... nothing is going to change.

Take a look at Mr Farage who was perceived as a noisy clown all along until its campaign and actions somehow "succeeded" (well, say rather that it opened a new set of doors to eventually go in a better direction).

He always told off passive, rich, arrogant, pedant...politicians in the EU.

Do something if you want any of the above list to change in a positive way!
I don't know, vote maybe?
Oh wait, I forgot voting outcome does not count if it's against your views and opinions...

Cut some heads! I mean the politician's not as in like terrorism or something... Oh that's not a roastbeef way of doing things, forgot about cultural differences

On a more serious note "We have better relations with our European friends" now seems more like "We have unpleasant relations with our European backstabbing friends".
Coming from the European side, I do find a lot of comments and attitude towards British people unacceptable, even if their views and opinions differs. Like low level bitching.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	I am not aware of a parallel myself. The closest I can think of is the separatist referenda in Canada, but that is closer to the Scottish referendum. One of the differences between the two with respect to Brexit is that there were almost no calls to dismantle the democratic process in the aftermath, as there seemed to be in the Brexit aftermath. There were various changes in Canada, both legal and societal, but though these are not without controversy, they didn't tear the country apart. Please note, I am not saying "Canada did it better.", but rather "The closest parallel isn't very parallel, and the aftermath is anyway different."

Canada does a lot of things better (except for the media berating Trudeau for attending the The Hip's farewell gig), but as you said, that example isn't very parallel. Closer to home, if the Catalan separatists acheived their aims in combination with departure from the EU...but even then...would that new border have the same political impact as the damage that will potentially be done to the Northern Ireland Peace Accord? I'm not aware of a similar peace accord between the Spanish government and ETA.

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	So far, like Loz and many other EFers, I have had a reasonably clear answer when I when my challenge has had anything to do with the argument that Phos was actually presenting.

I don't mind Loz. As I've said before, he's far more Mary Whitehouse than Nick Griffin in his beliefs, and he can present a decent argument, occassionally finding common ground. That's the essence of good debate. I don't come here to flat out argue. I come here to exchange views and rattle around ideas and thoughts. Because of the cultural isolation of recently moving to Switzerland, I sometimes come here to see if anyone is thinking the same as me when a news story develops, just to make sure I'm not going mad in what I'm thinking.


I've been told by four Swiss friends that, if Swiss people talked about politics, they wouldn't talk about anything else, so they tend not to. Even so, those four people have all commented to me on Brexit, and have proved how incredibly politically aware they are. I sincerely wish the British public were as politically astute as the Swiss. Unfortunately, I do know a couple of people who voted Leave and have sincerely regretted their vote.


To be very blunt, and even though this may appear detrimental to Brits, it happens to be the truth of the matter, over the course of an average year where there isn't a General Election, Swiss people will vote in several referendums, each of which will have questions on several subjects. The result is legally binding.


By comparison, your average Brit will vote on The X Factor, I'm A Celebrity, Britain's Got Talent, Big Brother, Love Island, etc.... then in a General Election, they may decide not to vote because they don't believe their imput makes any difference.


Then, for the first time in a generation, they're given a vote that will change their lives and the future of the country, even though legally, the result is only advisory. Within days of that vote, the PM announced his resignation, the opposition party fell apart, and to a man, the only three people I know who voted Leave posted the same message on social media... "I didn't vote for this!"

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	With all due respect, you can't have spent much time online in the last decade or so if you really haven't the foggiest idea what "mansplaining" means. As you yourself claim to have spent a lot of time online in the past decade, I suspect you are being at least one of: economical with the truth, ironical, or refusing to deal with a criticism.

This is the first forum I've been on in 6yrs that wasn't purely work related, and I hardly used that one. After being as mod for 8yrs, I'd had enough. Apparently, I was on Stormfront's hit list for quite a number of years, but they never made it over to Wigan When the forum I worked on went by the by, everyone jumped to new forums and I took a break to concentrate on work related exams. I'm still in near daily contact with most of the old mod team, and one of the members I had to chastise the most, is still one of my closest friends. Rumour has it that the site owner had to pull the plug because he began working for Obama, which wouldn't surprise me.


Overly long explanation, but no! I've never heard of mansplaining before yesterday. I couldn't care less what anyone's got between their legs. It's what is in your head, your heart and what comes out of your gob that matters.

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	Your relatives who live in Canada are highly unlikely to regard themselves as Colonials...

Too true.
My granddad had two younger sisters. One married a huge Canadian airforceman from Winnipeg and the other married a G.I. (named Joe ) from Buffalo, and every alternate year, the whole family would come over to stay at my grandparents' for a month.

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	To get back to the Brexit issue, my opinion is that it revealed a tension between the public and the "ruling classes" (by which I mean Politicians) which has been festering for a very long time (I think this summer will eventually be known as "the summer of discontent").

There was definitely a knee jerk reaction against anything that came out of Cameron's mouth, but the same people who rejected him also accepted Boris even though he's cut from the same cloth.

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	I also believe that the politicans in the remain campaign never seriously entertained the thought that they might lose - this from the way they went about presenting their side, but mostly from the dazed look of disbelief that I believe to have seen on their faces immediately after the vote. Brexit has, and will continue to have, significant effect on the UK not just financially. I wager that, long term, things will settle down and the economy will perform about as well as it can given the forces of the internal and external markets but anyone who believed that Brexit would have no, or exclusively positive effects was apparently not paying attention.

Agreed to a large extent.

Two major factors for me were Corbyn's abject refusal to share a platform with Cameron, and the murder of Jo Cox. That few days of hiatus was sorely needed, but in the aftermath, one side of the debate tried to adopt a 'kinder version of politics', yet the other side still maintained their assault.


The PR master class was the coining of 'Project Fear'. The dumbing down of the electorate on both sides of the pond with phrases such as this and 'Crooked Hillary', 'Lying Ted', 'Little Marco', etc...is grade 1 neurolinguistic programming. I can smell that bull a mile off and it immediately makes me do my own research and come to my own conclusions. That's my arrogant streak kicking back at anyone telling me what to think. I appreciate that some people just go with it and can only speculate as to why they embrace it.


As for the economy, with the high level of quantitative easing we've seen this past two months and the weak GBP, it's hardly surprising that retail has increased. We're the new Spain for foreign visitors. Hotel bookings are up 30%...

http://www.bighospitality.co.uk/Busi...by-30-per-cent

The weakened Sterling has also brough in business orders, but how long are those contracts for? 2yrs? 5yrs? And they going to bring enough revenue to pay back the BoE?

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	The oddest thing is that Brexit may well prompt change within the EU which ultimately have more positive effect there (possibly even sooner) than the failures which the UK seems to think they were addressing with Brexit, but this remains to be seen.

I think the EU will regroup, reform and be stronger now that they have a scapegoat example of what can go wrong, and I so wanted it to be the Netherlands that took the leap into the dark.

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	One of the things that Phos is on about is precisely this gap between politics and the best interests of the citizenry. I don't like the "drink the coolaid" claim myself, but it is a handy shorthand for a phenomenon which I also perceive.

There I disagree.

The entire referendum was to appease a small group of people who populated the far right of the Conservative Party. UKIP can ride on their coat tails, but it was never meant to appease them. Added to this, it brought out the people who are to the left of Corbyn, from their Labour Party imposed exclusion / wilderness. Add to that an large proportion of the electorate who only vote for tv shows normally, because they don't believe their political votes ever make any difference. Add to that all the people who just wanted to stick two fingers up to Cameron and saw precious little to dissuade them from their traditional leader. The only leader who has shown any real grit and resolve in all, this is Nicola Sturgeon. Love her or hate her, she's got bigger balls than Cameron, Corbyn, Johnson & Gove put together.

There's a huge swathe of centre ground voters from all the mainstream parties who feel unrepresented by this result. They feel dictated to by the political extremes at both ends of the spectrum, and that's not a good place to be.

	Quote:	JagWaugh
	So, have I put my heart on my sleeve sufficiently clearly now, or failed to respond to any of your points?

Face to face, my answer would be a cheesy grin with "You're getting there..." as I flounce out of the room. But seeing as I know how you love emoticons...

[marton]

	Quote:	CorsebouTheReturn
	Then British people should do anything so the above list happens. Surely, if they are sitting quietly until politicians are moving then yeah... nothing is going to change. Take a look at Mr Farage who was perceived as a noisy clown all along until its campaign and actions somehow "succeeded" (well, say rather that it opened a new set of doors to eventually go in a better direction). He always told off passive, rich, arrogant, pedant...politicians in the EU. Do something if you want any of the above list to change in a positive way! I don't know, vote maybe? Oh wait, I forgot voting outcome does not count if it's against your views and opinions... Cut some heads! I mean the politician's not as in like terrorism or something... Oh that's not a roastbeef way of doing things, forgot about cultural differences On a more serious note "We have better relations with our European friends" now seems more like "We have unpleasant relations with our European backstabbing friends". Coming from the European side, I do find a lot of comments and attitude towards British people unacceptable, even if their views and opinions differs. Like low level bitching.

"He [Farage] always told off passive, rich, arrogant, pedant...politicians in the EU."

Poor poor Mr Farage; as an MEP he continues to be quite well paid even after the Brexit referendum until the un-foreseeable future.

Salary £84,000 annually (healthy increase as it is paid in euros and the pound has crashed)
a non-contributory pension scheme

Expenses

• €304 a day "subsistence" allowance for when they're on official business
• For their office costs, MEPs can claim a general allowance of €4,299 a month
• MEPs can claim up to €21,209 a month for staffing costs (they are now "discouraged" from hiring family members)
• first class/business class travel in the EU
• extra travel allowance of up to €4,243 for trips outside of the EU
• two thirds of any medical bills (including Viagra)
• All MEPs are entitled to a "golden goodbye" of at least £39,000 to help them settle back into the real world if not re-elected. That is higher depending on how long you served as an MEP.

[JagWaugh]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Canada does a lot of things better (except for the media berating Trudeau for attending the The Hip's farewell gig), ... There I disagree. The entire referendum was to appease a small group of people who populated the far right of the Conservative Party. UKIP can ride on their coat tails, but it was never meant to appease them. Added to this, it brought out the people who are to the left of Corbyn, from their Labour Party imposed exclusion / wilderness. Add to that an large proportion of the electorate who only vote for tv shows normally, because they don't believe their political votes ever make any difference. Add to that all the people who just wanted to stick two fingers up to Cameron and saw precious little to dissuade them from their traditional leader. The only leader who has shown any real grit and resolve in all, this is Nicola Sturgeon. Love her or hate her, she's got bigger balls than Cameron, Corbyn, Johnson & Gove put together. Face to face, my answer would be a cheesy grin with "You're getting there..." as I flounce out of the room. But seeing as I know how you love emoticons...

The media and Trudeau is kind of a "thing". The "rockstar PM" stuff is at least as much from the media as from his office. Both should tone it down a bit, imo just not Canadian. Story is, the entire nation switched away from the Olympics to watch the final concert, so the media crit is a bit stupid. CBC even posted details about how to watch both:
http://olympics.cbc.ca/news/article/...-olympics.html

Apparently we don't disagree. If as you write, the whole Brexit thing "was to appease a small group of people who populated the far right of the Conservative Party", then this wasn't about what was good for the nation, but rather good for the party. i.e. the whole thing came about as a result of an inner power struggle within the party. This is what I mean by the dichotomy between the rulers and the ruled.

I haven't spent enough time in the UK in the last 10 years to pretend to have a finger on the pulse of the nation... I have the feeling that gogglebox isn't exactly raising the average IQ of the nation, and the last time I had anything to do with the NHS was in the A&E of the Royal of Liverpool on a Saturday morning, and I was definitely not impressed. The medical care was fine, but I am fairly sure that we were the only people in the waitingroom not there as a direct result of either stupidity or substance abuse, or both.

My impression of Sturgeon is that she really is fighting for what she believes in, and I think she does it honestly and well. I don't think that Scottish independence would actually work, but I don't see Sturgeon as leading them down a path for nothing other than her desire to be the leader.

Quit smilieing at me.

[Phos]

Farage deserves to be knighted. Perhaps when he is no longer an active political figure.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	Phos
	Farage deserves to be knighted. Perhaps when he is no longer an active political figure.

If he follows his purported beliefs and attitudes, he'd tell them to stick their titles - he likes to maintain his persona of one of the boys with a pie and a pint, certainly not one of the fat-cat Westminster old boys' elite with titles...