The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[amogles]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	If your any good at you job, you will get a job in CH, it always was the case it always will be, if your mr Average perhaps not.

I think Mr Average will probably be more employable in Switzerland than in Britain. Britain is heading very much towards an elitism where only the cream get the good jobs (and live a life of luxury off the insane salaries) and the rest are conent with the gutter and the leftovers. Switzerland has much more of a continuum with fewer people at the extremes.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	In 1970- I had to make the grade and truly prove myself to get the job- aged 19 I was very lucky to be picked indeed.

Thats what you have to do to get ANY job today. It's not as if there was nobody in the UK who could have done the job so it's a non story.

The IMF came out strongly against Brexit yesterday. Surprising that one unaccountable, undemocratic international organisation would come out in support of another.

This is a good thing for Brexit, because the IMF are pretty much wrong on everything. "Eastern Europe should adopt Euro" "UK should boost spending to boost the economy" "Austerity will cripple UK economy".


http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36024492

Here's a nice flow chart to illustrate how little your vote counts:

Today's reason to leave the EU. Did you know that the president of the European Council receives a salary of €25k per month (not including family and other allowances), as well as a chauffeured limmo and 20 servants. There's also a president of the European Commission that receives the same.

Most Europeans can't name who fulls these roles at present. And even more can't tell you want they do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presid...eges_of_office

[marton]

The Swiss bank UBS has warned that Britain risks a “sudden stop” in capital inflows and a 30pc crash in sterling if the country votes to leave the EU and negotiations turn ugly.

The bank said Britain has embarked on the referendum at an extremely delicate moment when the country has the worst current account deficit in the developed world and is dependent on foreign investors to plug the gap.

Source

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	The Swiss bank UBS has warned that Britain risks a “sudden stop” in capital inflows and a 30pc crash in sterling if the country votes to leave the EU and negotiations turn ugly. The bank said Britain has embarked on the referendum at an extremely delicate moment when the country has the worst current account deficit in the developed world and is dependent on foreign investors to plug the gap. Source

The thing about economists is that it is incredibly easy to opinion shop. At this stage I'd say victory will go to the side that can generate the most fear and sell the best lies!

[Sbrinz]

Some interesting answers, http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887

[yacek]

	Quote:	marton
	The Swiss bank UBS has warned that Britain risks a “sudden stop” in capital inflows and a 30pc crash in sterling if the country votes to leave the EU and negotiations turn ugly.

A sinking GPB would a blessing for domestic businesses, wouldn't it?

[Sbrinz]

The pound was fixed at 8 Swiss francs when I first came here in 1955, and yes it should help exports, but it also makes imports more expensive.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	yacek
	A sinking GPB would a blessing for domestic businesses, wouldn't it?

The UK imports rather a lot...... more than it exports on average, so it's not that helpful. A sinking £ would make the difference bigger.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The UK imports rather a lot...... more than it exports on average, so it's not that helpful. A sinking £ would make the difference bigger.

It depends if you subscribe to the begger they neighbour strategy. Some might argue that cheaper GBP would favour substituting foreign goods with domestically produced goods.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	yacek
	A sinking GPB would a blessing for domestic businesses, wouldn't it?

It really depends on the business, if it needs to import it's inputs then it would be bad news. On the other had if it's income is derived from exports then it would be a big help. We've seen Ireland hit record exports as a result of being able to trade in an undervalued currency.

On the other hand it would hit those on a fixed income such as pensioners hard as the UK imports about 40% of it's food consumption.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	It really depends on the business, if it needs to import it's inputs then it would be bad news. On the other had if it's income is derived from exports then it would be a big help. We've seen Ireland hit record exports as a result of being able to trade in an undervalued currency. On the other hand it would hit those on a fixed income such as pensioners hard as the UK imports about 40% of it's food consumption.

I don't think food would be badly impacted as the UK has significant domestic food production. Depending on tariffs set, food prices could be significantly cheaper if the UK drops the protectionist EU tariffs on food imports.

[Troublawesome]

Seeing as the UK produces almost nothing in terms of farm produce and imports everything, the food costs would rise substantially. The poor would be especially hit by that more than anyone else.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	I don't think food would be badly impacted as the UK has significant domestic food production. Depending on tariffs set, food prices could be significantly cheaper if the UK drops the protectionist EU tariffs on food imports.

Do you think lower tariffs on food import will make any difference to cost in the shop. I can't see shops reducing prices just because it's cheaper to buy.

[Sbrinz]

On TV they said the UK farmers today are really dependent on the EU farm subsidies. If Britain leaves, then the subsidy money will have to be found from somewhere, or the farms will go under faster than they are nowadays. Britain's farms are very efficient but the UK still needs to import about 40% of food, net. http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/uk.html

If the UK leaves the EU, it will need the supermarkets to start paying a fair price for the farm produce, so the food prices will likely rise by the equivalent loss of the EU farm subsidies.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	I don't think food would be badly impacted as the UK has significant domestic food production. Depending on tariffs set, food prices could be significantly cheaper if the UK drops the protectionist EU tariffs on food imports.

Agricultural Tariffs in the EU are complex, but if you go through them you'll find they are not so heavy say 8 to 15 percent. And when you consider MFN and similar agreements it can be even lower. So I would not count on there being much play there. Also much of this is WTO, so it would still apply even if the UK went it's way.

The other thing that would need to be addressed is farm subsidies. UK farmers will need income supplements to replace EU subsidies.

In the end I'd expect prices to stay the same or rise rather than fall.

[AbFab]

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	Seeing as the UK produces almost nothing in terms of farm produce and imports everything, the food costs would rise substantially. The poor would be especially hit by that more than anyone else.

Official statistics indicated that Britain's self-sufficiency – the measure of how much of the food eaten in Britain is grown here – is 58.9 per cent. The last time the country grew so little of what it ate was in 1968
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddr...ince-1968.html

It's not going in the right direction, but nearly 60% self sufficient isn't "nearly nothing" - and I guess the UK wants to eat bananas, mangoes etc and strawberries year round...

[marton]

	Quote:	AbFab
	Official statistics indicated that Britain's self-sufficiency – the measure of how much of the food eaten in Britain is grown here – is 58.9 per cent. The last time the country grew so little of what it ate was in 1968 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddr...ince-1968.html It's not going in the right direction, but nearly 60% self sufficient isn't "nearly nothing" - and I guess the UK wants to eat bananas, mangoes etc and strawberries year round...

According to this report here UK farming would collapse after Brexit.
Currently UK farmers receive around euro 3bn from the EU which is 60% of their income.

It is not clearly stated anywhere if the UK Govt. would replace this subsidy.

If tariffs on imports were dropped then this would increase the financial pressure on UK farmers.