The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Yes or look on your mobile which doesn't get stopped. More good news: free trade deal with Australia coming up http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...h-australia-a/

Of course it is good news but Australia is our 19th largest export partner (see table below) so it is not a game changer.
8 out of the top 10 export countries are in the EU so these are key targets.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Of course it is good news but Australia is our 19th largest export partner (see table below) so it is not a game changer. 8 out of the top 10 export countries are in the EU so these are key targets.

Have you got the list for imports? That would be interesting as with the lower £ exports won't be affected by a tariff as it balances out.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Have you got the list for imports? That would be interesting as with the lower £ exports won't be affected by a tariff as it balances out.

Little old, best I could find

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Do they not see, this is why you füçking lost Brexit! You're totally out of touch! It's state sponsored comedy on the BBC and Channel 4, where back slapping comedians peddle out their politically correct agenda with cheap gags about UKIP. It's boring, it's easy, and no one cares for your smug, moralising shite. The majority of the nation doesn't share your left of centre sanctimonious view. Please, up your game.

And conform with people like you? Not in this lifetime... and you wouldn't want me on the same side as you anyway. I will eternally find it difficult to not have cheap gags about UKIP. There's a very good reason why you'll never see me say...

"My friends who vote UKIP..."

I have encountered some colleagues who vote that way, but I can count those people on one hand and never become friends with them.

	Quote:	Mikers
	More good news: free trade deal with Australia coming up

Wonder what the carbon footprint is on that! and it all becomes a little "grasping at straws" compared to this...

	Quote:
	Obama quashes prospect of fast-track Brexit UK-U.S. trade deal He offered May reassurance that Britain's closest political, commercial and military ally would stand by her, but did not shrink away from his stance that Brexit was a mistake and that London would not be able to jump the queue to arrange a bilateral deal. "It is absolutely true that I believed pre-Brexit vote, and continued to believe post-Brexit vote, that the world benefited enormously from the United Kingdom's participation in the EU," he said. "First things first - the first task (for Britain) is going to be figuring out what Brexit means with respect to Europe, and our first task is making sure we get, first, TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) done and also that we move forward on the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) negotiations in which we've invested a lot of time and effort."

[Blueangel]

The link for the post above, is here... http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g2...-idUSKCN11A08M

[marton]

	Quote:	Mikers
	It's underway now though, the planning. All the 'we're having a second vote' has been ditched, the financial catastrophe has been shown to be complete rubbish with sterling coming back and industry figures good. I see David Davies has asked for limited immigration with free access to the single market. This is a good strong message that w are there to succeed let's hope we get it.

Britain's economy will suffer as a result of the decision to leave the European Union despite signs in recent economic data that the impact has not been as severe as some predicted, Prime Minister Theresa May said today.

Source

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Little old, best I could find

Thanks, So Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium & Italy are net losers so will be keen not to see a 10% tariff on top of the currency loss.

[Kosti]

"At the start of the G20 Summit, the Japanese government has taken the unprecedented step of warning of a series of corporate exits, "great turmoil" and harmful effects if Brexit leads to the loss of single market privileges."

http://news.sky.com/story/japans-unp...rexit-10564585

[marton]

	Quote:	Kosti
	"At the start of the G20 Summit, the Japanese government has taken the unprecedented step of warning of a series of corporate exits, "great turmoil" and harmful effects if Brexit leads to the loss of single market privileges." http://news.sky.com/story/japans-unp...rexit-10564585

From your link ""Japanese businesses with their European headquarters in the UK may decide to transfer their head-office function to Continental Europe if EU laws cease to be applicable in the UK after its withdrawal," the report concludes.

It suggests Japanese car companies fear that they will be hit by a double whammy of trade tariffs.

There were fears of levies being imposed twice "once for auto parts imported from the EU and again for final products assembled in the UK to be exported to the EU - which would have a significant impact on their businesses.".

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	"real people that matter like Merkl" it is looking less and less likely that Merkl will survive the vote next year

Pressure on Merkel increasing

Angela Merkel faces possible defeat in German regional poll

Source

Polls in the region close at 6pm local time (5pm BST) on Sunday, with first exit polls expected to be announced an hour later.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Kosti
	"At the start of the G20 Summit, the Japanese government has taken the unprecedented step of warning of a series of corporate exits, "great turmoil" and harmful effects if Brexit leads to the loss of single market privileges." http://news.sky.com/story/japans-unp...rexit-10564585

Feck! Feck! Feck!!!

Now... who would all the IT people here prefer to have trade deals with?

1. Australia

2. The U.S. and Japan?


Tiny bit of a no brainer that one.

[Kosti]

This article goes into more detail about Sunderland.
Been voting labour for decades, and voted heavily to leave.
Pretty much the kind of constituency that swung the vote for Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...-i-will-go-mad

"The history of the <Nissan> plant is difficult to escape. It only exists because Margaret Thatcher went to Japan in 1982 and visited the Nissan chiefs, personally assuring them of access for their cars to an embryonic British invention – Europe’s single market. She then went into battle for Nissan against French and Italian attempts to block tariff-free exports of the Sunderland-produced Nissan Bluebird. She helped establish the Nissan as a European car, designed for export into Europe and getting around strict quotas for Japanese imports in the face of French opposition."

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	Pressure on Merkel increasing Angela Merkel faces possible defeat in German regional poll Source Polls in the region close at 6pm local time (5pm BST) on Sunday, with first exit polls expected to be announced an hour later.

Angela Merkel has suffered a sobering defeat in regional elections in her constituency of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) coming third behind the Social Democrats (SPD) and the rightwing populists Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).

Though the result will not have a direct impact on the workings of the German government and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern only has a population of 1.6 million, it has a symbolic value with regional elections in Berlin on 18 September and a general election coming up next year

Source

[Mikers]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Feck! Feck! Feck!!! Now... who would all the IT people here prefer to have trade deals with? 1. Australia 2. The U.S. and Japan? Tiny bit of a no brainer that one.

I don't follow the logic of this point. We have started to make a free trade deal with Australia. We will I'm sure try to do the same with many other countries. Have the US and Japan said they would not deal with us if we have a trade deal with Australia ?

[marton]

According to the ft today May has rejected proposals to stop giving EU people priority in immigration to the UK. Also she rejected giving more money to the NHS and cutting VAT on fuel.

So when she says Brexit means Brexit, now we are getting a clearer idea of what she means.

[marton]

	Quote:	Mikers
	I don't follow the logic of this point. We have started to make a free trade deal with Australia. We will I'm sure try to do the same with many other countries. Have the US and Japan said they would not deal with us if we have a trade deal with Australia ?

No, the US said UK will be at the back of the queue to make deals. Japan has threatened that some companies will withdraw if UK leaves the single Market; like Nissan in Sunderland where 62% voted Brexit. Karma.

[Mikers]

	Quote:	marton
	No, the US said UK will be at the back of the queue to make deals. Japan has threatened that some companies will withdraw if UK leaves the single Market; like Nissan in Sunderland where 62% voted Brexit. Karma.

Ok right. So one has started in reality while the other two are theoretical possibilities which may or may not happen.

[marton]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Ok right. So one has started in reality while the other two are theoretical possibilities which may or may not happen.

The trade deal with Australia also may or may not happen; it is also in the status of "possibility" - such deals usually take some years....
For example the FTA negotiation between Australia and its largest trading partner China started in 2005 (look here) and finished in 2014, and came into force in 2015.

Other Australian FTAs negotiations;
New Zealand 5 years
Japan 8years

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Mikers
	Ok right. So one has started in reality while the other two are theoretical possibilities which may or may not happen.

Nope, it didn't:
May will meet Turnbull "to shape the broad outline of what would be Britain’s first new trade pact after Brexit". Preliminary talks are necessary to determine what the talks/treaty will be about. And that's not done in five minutes or a single day.

And of course:
"At present, the UK has a desperate shortage of officials who are trained in negotiating trade agreements". Even if Canada and NZ lend their own negotiators, would any country really want to rely on outsiders for such crucial undertakings? At least for key positions such as the negotiating delegation's leadership, I think you want them to be your own.

[Castro]

	Quote:	marton
	No, the US said UK will be at the back of the queue to make deals. Japan has threatened that some companies will withdraw if UK leaves the single Market; like Nissan in Sunderland where 62% voted Brexit. Karma.

Honda in Swindon and Toyota in Derbyshire are also huge, manufacturing over 300k cars per annum.
I was listening to pro-Brexit Tory Kwasi Kwarteng on the radio this morning scoffing at Obama and the Japanese for telling us what to do... er no matey, they will demonstrate their frustration with more than just words